Friends in fight songs,

You never go FULL LANNING.
Like, what the actual Duck, Dan.

MAKE WEEK 12 PICKS

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Pick deadline: 9am PT Sat

In Trampled Trombone Survivor, nearly 90% of us took Oregon, a two-touchdown favorite in a lopsided rivalry at notoriously hostile Autzen Stadium. But then Oregon coach Dan Lanning went Full Stat Bro on us. In a tie game on their own 34-yard line with a minute and 30 seconds to go, Lanning ordered Oregon to go for it on fourth-and-1.

WITH HIS HEISMAN-CONTENDING QUARTERBACK STANDING NEXT TO HIM ON THE SIDELINES.

Sorry. I’m getting Pete Carroll/Reggie Bush flashbacks from the 2006 USC-Texas National Championship game.

At least THAT call back in 2006 considered SOME context. Sure, LenDale White’s fourth-and-2 plow into the line was telegraphed, but a first down literally wins the national championship. And giving the ball back to Vince Young loses it, whether he starts on his own 10-yard line or at midfield. Everyone in the Rose Bowl knew it.

But Dan, my man. First, your transparent run call was smothered by a swarming Washington defensive front, banana peel slip or not. No Bo meant no throw.

And second, WHY?!? Why push ALL your chips in on a fourth-and-1 call that merely extends a drive still needing another 35-40 yards? That’s simply the first leg of a four-way parlay that includes three first downs and a successful field goal kick.

And you risk losing the game INSTANTLY.

Football is having its baseball moment. Homogeneous thought clustered around the idea of smart football. Sure, gaining a yard on fourth-and-1 happens roughly 60% of the time or whatever. In ideal conditions.

But where’s the context? There are legendary stories of coaches sleeping on coaches, grinding 100 hours of film each week, searching for any cue they can unearth, precisely for the game’s biggest spots.

How could the risk be worth it in that spot?

Why would you recklessly wager everything - including your driver’s seat College Football Playoff position - right then, with your backup quarterback, by dogmatically believing in outdated information? There’s NO WAY that call had a projected 60% success rate at that moment.

Why isn’t the information you gain during the game worth a fraction of what you’ve predetermined in the days prior? Look, I love playing to win. And I get the idea of winning in regulation vs. simply surviving until overtime.

But there’s a difference between what Big Balls Brian did in the Bayou - going for 2 against an Alabama team that just sliced through his defense, when LSU would simply be fortunate to face a similar opportunity two overtimes later - and giving yourself an unforced 40% chance to lose.

We need poker champs as coaches. There are the numbers, and then there’s reading the room.

This isn’t an anti-analytics rant. Analytics is information. It’s relevant. But so is the information you are gathering over four quarters of football that day.

In these situations, I like to default to a lesson I first learned as a 12-year-old playing Madden: What would your opponent WANT you to do?

There’s no doubt the Huskies were licking their chops at the possibility of winning the game on one play with their defense, as they watched Oregon’s backup quarterback line up in shotgun formation.

TROMPLED TRAMBONE RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We started Week 11 with 89 Survivors. Dan Lanning wiped out 79 of us. Another 6% of us were clipped by North Carolina, who took down Wake Forest. That means just five of us remain. Top prize is $10K. Fifth place is guaranteed $500. IT’S GETTING REAL.

We make two more Survivor picks this week, before THREE are required for a suddenly "if necessary Week 13". Utah and Florida State are spent. Only one picker can choose Michigan or Georgia. Two can still roll with the Tide or Tennessee.

RANKINGS & RIVALRIES RECAP

Weekly standings | Game outcomes

We had 11 different pickers go 11-1, but none of our trail-blazers were brazen enough to pick both Washington AND Arizona upsets. Eight of our leaders had Washington over Oregon. The other three took Arizona over UCLA.

Through two weeks in our final interval, four of us are tied at the top with 19-3 marks. @JoshAllenLooksGoodInShorts and @TunaBoat are tied for first in the Overall, while 23 of us are within two of the lead. @TunaBoat is tied for first overall in both Rankings & Rivalries AND the Vandy Inclusivity pick’ems.

Team SZN Bragging Rights: Mrs. Merf is one back in the Overall. StatCzar went down with JIMBO in SEC-vivor. TheGM was one of five pickers on VANDY to snap their 26-game SEC losing streak. And I’m all the way up to Mr. 44TH Percentile, and just two wins back in the third Interval heading into the final window. It’s MOXIE TIME.

WEEK 12 SCOUTING REPORT

Merf takes a peek at this weekend's matchups...

• Wake Forest has lost three straight. They’re also a double-digit favorite against a Syracuse team that was ranked No. 14 just three weeks ago.
• Of course, since Syracuse’s heartbreaking loss to Clemson, they’ve dropped four straight, including a 38-3 pasting at home to Florida State.
• How much is Texas favored by? It’s 10. So just a field goal more than last week’s game against TCU. They travel to Kansas.
• Meanwhile, TCU is favored by less than a field goal at unranked Baylor. Vegas is showing TCU some Leslie Chow levels of hostility.
• Have we learned our Survivor rivalry lesson? Oklahoma had won the previous six Bedlam matchups until Oklahoma State pulled off a stunner last year.
• Oklahoma’s hoping someone hires their coach hours after this year’s game, too.
• Kentucky just lost to Vandy. Now they play Georgia. Greatest upset ever?
• USC, UCLA, Oregon and Utah all have one loss in the Pac-12. So this weekend’s matchups (USC-UCLA; Utah-Oregon) serve as a de facto play-in game for the Pac-12 Championship.
• (Oregon still has the Civil War, but you get it. This week’s matchups are huge.)
• USC and UCLA have split their last 10 matchups.
• Utah beat Oregon twice last year, including the Pac-12 title game.
• GO FOR THE MOXIE! This is the last picking window of our third Interval.
• Our final Interval is the cornucopia of hate known as RIVALRY WEEK.

Yours in baggy khakis and bubble gum,
Merf