Friends in fight songs,
It’s the final week of our third interval. Four of us are tied for the lead at 19-3.
Another 54 of us are within one.
Meanwhile, 193 of us are within two and 403 of us (54%) are within a field goal.
That’s right. MORE THAN HALF of us are within three wins of the lead heading into Interval 3's final 12-game slate.
WEEK 12 PICKS
- TT Survivor
- R&R Pick'em
- Your group picks
WELL within reach…if we’re talking about any other SZN.
College football has been the NFL antidote. Our favorites have won 75% of the time. Our average picker has yet to lose more than three games in a week. The Moxie has been untapped. But I hope you’re ready for your Moxie kegstand.
It’s November. We’ve got Thunder Snow. We’re DUE for some chaos. And if you’re trailing - everybody wave! - you’re depending on it. Even our leaders need to find a little Moxie, with 54 of us breathing down their necks, just one win back.
Sure, Alabama has been mildly upset twice. TCU continues to defy Vegas as it runs through the parity-riddled Big 12. Tennessee has been a flashy and fun upstart.
But where are the REAL upsets?
BACK WHEN COMMISH AND I WERE IN COLLEGE - back when Ohio State didn’t have a THE but Facebook did, we had sideline passes to anarchy.
During the 2007 college football season, the No. 2 team in the country lost SEVEN times over the final NINE WEEKS. How about THIS list for a throwback: USC (the immortal Stanford upset), Cal (peak DeSean Jackson), South Florida (random; ultimately went 9-4), Boston College (Matty Ice!), Oregon (RIP Dennis Dixon’s knee), Kansas (epic Top 5 Border War showdown) and West Virginia (Pat White and Steve Slayton: EA Sports speed option cheat codes) ALL reached No. 2…and lost.
Three different weeks, the Nos. 1 AND 2 teams lost - including the final two weeks of the season!
It’s been a little TOO quiet this year. We’ve preordained an undefeated Ohio State-Michigan matchup since August. But we’ve seen the Harbaugh face. Ohio State has stubbed its toe before. And while Georgia has smashed any opponent that snares its attention, Kent State and Missouri snuck up on the sleeping Bulldogs. Maybe an embarrassed Kentucky is that team. Georgia hasn’t finished off an undefeated season since 1980. Or maybe a spirited South Carolina Soulja Boy squad cranks up the home field advantage and makes a first-time-on-the-Big-Stage Tennessee look as lost as it did in Athens.
Did last weekend’s Pac-12 After Dark kick off the chaos? The Ducks and Bruins had Playoff dreams extinguished. They can return the favor in two highly charged toss-ups today.
We’ve also got the Big Game and Bedlam as Rivalry Week appetizers.
Maybe last weekend was just a Moxie appetizer.
PICK STATS
Trampled Trombone Survivor
- We're down to five.
- Five of us get to make TWO picks. Will any of us make three next week?
- Four of us are rolling with Wake Forest (hosting Syracuse) as one of our two teams.
- Two combos are Clemson-Wake Forest.
- We’re cashing in our final Georgia pick. The Bulldogs won’t be available next week.
- We’re also on Ole Miss (at Arkansas) and Texas (at Kansas).
Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em
- Your MASSIVE leverage plays in our 12-game slate include Maryland (hosting Brutus) and Kentucky (hosting UGA). Both upsets were picked by just 1% of us. After a Moxie kegstand personal best.
- Miami (at Clemson) is right behind them. This is purely a Dabo hate pick, or you are 12 back of the lead and had to go FULL CONTRARIAN.
- The Soulja Boys - Gamecocks to non-SEC newsletter readers - are 2-percenters at home against Tennessee. I dig it. But did you dig up something Josh Heupel said during SEC Media Day to rile up South Carolina?
- Illinois is another 2-percenter. They can still win the Big Ten West. But they have to win in the Big House first.
- Another 2-percent of us are certifiable Notre Dame haters. Boston College is batshit crazy. They have lost to Duke and UConn, but beat Louisville and NC State.
- We only have one true toss-up - Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. But it feels like there should be a few more.
- Only 20% of us like Baylor in Waco, even though Vegas only has TCU as a field goal favorite.
- Roughly a third of us like Pac-12 underdogs Utah, UCLA and Stanford.
- Except Oregon is actually the Vegas underdog. I’ll recuse myself from USC takes, but the matchup is worrisome. And what has Cal done to earn such confidence in a battle between 1-7 Pac-12 rivals? At least Stanford beat Notre Dame.
- Two-thirds of us are also Rowing the Boat. I have no read on their matchup with Iowa, so give me the underdog. MOXIE!
WEEKLY AWARDS
Dot the "i" in Moxie Award
Given to the boldest pick - WITH A COMMENT - so be sure to leave one!
@Logan2273 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Michigan, Tennessee, and USC fall????? Probably not, but it’s what I need if I want a chance at winning this interval. So here’s hoping for chaos"
Merf says: This is how you do it! But it's Oregon and Cal fall, not USC...
Play Like a Champion Award
The very best comment
@judigregry (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "@merf and @thecommish…meet up at the big rivalry game? BLL on me!"
Merf says: That's a Godfather offer right there! We're doing this next year at the Coliseum!
Lennay Kekua Memorial Award
The most convincing comment
@mahatma19 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "I chose an amphibian to beat a bear and an indigenous nation to lose to a water bird....but I damn sure am not choosing a color to win. -guy NOT on LSD"
Merf says: Oh COME ON. You had me until you took a couple of nuts to beat a MIGHTY TERRAPIN.
The "I'm a Man, I'm 40!" Award
The spiciest take
@kempsoos (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "I'm calling for the Baylor upset this week because I don't really like the cut of TCU's jib. I went to the game when they came to TCF Bank stadium back in the day. They beat the Gophers and it made me sad, now I want them to feel that same pain. Who's going to be the one crying into their last couple sips of a Grainbelt while they walk back to their Lightrail stop down the street now TCU? Not me! because I'm a man, I'm 29!"
Merf says: Is that what you say when anyone cards you? And I just learned about a new beer! Literally their motto is "Grainbelt: The Friendly Beer." You can only say nice things about TCU when you drink a Grainbelt, @kempsoos.
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@SABANKER (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "The two Pac 12 games is almost a coin flip choice. I just hope I use the right coin. Too close to blow it now. Maybe I will just pick the cooler mascot names instead. Come on Traveler and Swoop!!! "
Merf says: SWOOP! Utah's red-tailed hawk! I am learning so much this week! Swoop vs. Swoosh.
@schm0869 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Come home, Floyd of Rosedale. "
Merf says: So Iowa plays for FOUR different rivalry trophies. And Minnesota plays for FIVE. Rivalry trophies are like bobblehead giveaways in the Midwest.
@BigDaddy (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Need one of the Top 6 to lose for USC to make the playoff! I think Harbaugh’s squad’s luck runs-out vs. a pesty, well-coached Illini team."
Merf says: I like where your MOXIE's at! But we can't have Michigan AND Ohio State end up with one loss, right?
@davidbernhardt (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "How can I pick Cal and Stanfurd to both lose?"
Merf says: They tied three of the first five games they played? Wait, so...who do you...root for? Who hates Stanford and Cal? Not judging, just curious...
@Manfresh (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "1 star recruit "
Merf says: Beats a 5-star walk-on?
@BigJake08 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Keep on rolling Frogs. The Hypnotoad will not let us down! We have the real Riley brother genius!!"
Merf says: Can we get a team to adapt Family Guy's Evil Monkey?
@JFrog2276 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "And finally Vegas respects TCU... kinda... only a 2.5 point favorite against Baylor is still pretty disrespectful. Prove them wrong once again horned frogs!"
Merf says: Vegas keeps doubling down, and I hope you...keep accepting the free money? TCU is 8-1-1 against the spread this year. They're the only team in the country with fewer than two losses. New Committee category?
@StatCzar (Vanderbilt Inclusivity Pick'em): "So far away. Doesn’t anybody pick home teams anymore. It would be so nice if perfection showed up at my door. Doesn’t help to know, I picked all away."
Merf says: This is your go-to karaoke song, isn't it?
@ChanningPhilpott (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Ughhhh this is getting so hard"
Merf says: Ah, yes, the invisible burden of 431st place and staying one win ahead of me...
Yours in baggy khakis and bubble gum,
Merf