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CFB Week 13 PICKS

by @Merf 🏈  CFB Free ⚡

Friends in fight songs,

Yes, it’s Rivalry Week. But it’s also Championship SZN.

Something’s on the line for everyone this weekend, whether it’s an Old Oaken Bucket, signature Survivor titles, Overall pick’em prestige or capturing Moxie in a bottle during our final Rivalry Week interval.

And then there’s the whole “Who’s In?” question to answer for the College Football Playoffs, where as many as seven teams can sell themselves as viable contenders with two games to go - including the Fightin’ Caleb Williamses!

Heading into the final weekend of the regular SZN, five Trampled Trombone Survivors remain. We are down to just two SEC-vivor pickers. And while @Dannyoconnor1986 has opened up a two-win lead in the Rankings & Rivalries Overall race, 70 of us are still within five with a whopping 22-pick finale to go.


WEEK 13 PICKS

 

One of those Overall contenders is @TunaBoat, who is tied for first in SEC SZN's Vandy Inclusivity pick’em, and tied for second in CFB SZN's Rankings & Rivalries pick'em.

You can pick’em like Mr. WeeWoo himself, @TunaBoat. Or maybe we should pick an SEC cornerback. How about Patrick Peterson? The Honey Badger? Haha Clinton-Dix?

Meanwhile @dsackett7 made it to the final week of the Survivor SZN in BOTH Trampled Trombone and SEC-vivor. While the dream of a Survivor sweep died in the SEC-vivor pickoff with Lane Kiffin’s Clash imitation - If I go I will be troubbble/If I stay it will be doubbble - @dsackett7 is still marching on as one of our five finalists in Trampled Trombone. Keep watching out for those laterals, @dsackett7.

And then there’s the embarrassing reveal of our Forecast competitions - Blue Turf Rank & Bank(CFB SZN) and the JimboSaban Ranking Royale (SEC SZN). Mind you, we have two more Saturdays to drift even further from reality, but a few teams have blindsided us.

When we turned in our first forecasts in Week 4, TCU hadn’t even received a vote in the AP Poll. By rule, they weren’t even pickable. In fact, TCU didn’t enter the rankings until Week 6. So we get a pass. But @​​JFrog2276 absolutely told us so. Moxie call of the year.

But nobody saw Bear Brian coming.

No. 6 LSU garnered just eight Top-10 nods out of 775 ballots. We gave Alabama (second-most picked), Kentucky (ninth), Arkansas (10th), Tennessee (11th), Ole Miss (18th), Florida (20th), and Texas A&M (22nd) more love than LSU (29th). We BARELY ranked LSU over Auburn. We even ranked LSU behind Miami (5-6 this year), BYU (6-5), Michigan State (5-6), Minnesota (7-4) and Wisconsin (6-5).

We snuck the Ducks onto 132 ballots (17%). No. 13 Notre Dame only appeared on SIX ballots after starting the year 0-2 with a home loss to Marshall. And No. 15 Kansas State appeared on a single ballot. All three teams are on Moxie watch if they can swing significant upsets these final two weekends.

When we turned in our Mulligan Ballots in Week 8, we DOWNGRADED LSU from eight votes to just two. That Tennessee trucking did NOT sit well with us.

We did the same to Notre Dame (2 votes) when it picked up its THIRD loss to Stanford the week before ballots were due. (Note to self, look for teams that JUST lost, and still have time to rescale the polls for INCREDIBLE leverage. Recency bias is STRONG.) No. 12 Washington (1 pick) also qualifies.

At the top, we failed to properly recalibrate TCU. They merely APPEARED on 57% of our Top 10 ballots the second time around, settling in as our eighth-most picked team, behind Clemson, Tennessee and OLE MISS. TCU was followed by all the Pac-12 teams - USC, Oregon and UCLA - a move that suggests we collectively shrugged and threw our hands up.

In the JimboSaban Royale, we somehow topped ourselves. Despite 149 tries, NOT A SINGLE PERSON picked LSU to win the SEC West. Only four of us DIDN’T choose Alabama, but instead we opted for Arkansas (3 pickers; currently 3-4) and Ole Miss (1; 4-3). On average, we picked LSU to finish FIFTH in the West.

At least three of us took Tennessee to top Georgia. A Moxie tip of the cap to you.

OK, I’m done grabbing you by the facemask and berating you. Here’s what to watch THIS weekend, after dissecting our MUCH more informed picks.

 

PICK STATS

Trampled Trombone Survivor

  • I get that EVERY game is a rivalry, but redlining near 100% autopicked on one side is a red flag.
  • But we’re GOING THERE with Georgia (hosting Georgia Tech) and Alabama (hosting Auburn).
  • Georgia Tech just stung Playoff hopeful UNC last week…
  • Maybe I’m just scarred by Oklahoma in Week 4, our only 99-percenter to lose this SZN. Vegas still likes Georgia by five touchdowns.
  • Half of our matchups (11 of 22) include at least a 90% favorite.
  • We’re IN on TCU. In Week 13. WE’RE ALL J-FROG.
  • We’re 90% sure TCU will play Kansas State next week for a berth to the College Football Playoff. What a sentence.
  • Only 8% of us think South Carolina can back up last week’s mojo against Clemson.
  • But 6% of us think VANDY can do what South Carolina did to Tennessee. Amazing.
  • We’re an 85-15 U-Dub tilt in the Apple Cup.
  • We have slightly more respect for the Beavers in the Civil War. We’re 80-20, Oregon.
  • Three-quarters of us like THE (Ohio State) to win the Big Game. Vegas thinks only Georgia can match up with Ohio State in its Power Ratings.
  • Or, you know, Maryland. Perhaps Northwestern.
  • Not relevant for us, but for those interested in comparing say, No. 5 LSU vs. No. 6 USC, Vegas would make that game a pick’em.
  • USC-Notre Dame should also be a pick’em on a neutral field. Instead it’s -5.5 at USC. Almost three-quarters of us agree.
  • We like Purdue to win the Old Oaken Bucket by a 65-35 margin. Same for Wisconsin to wield Paul Bunyan’s Axe.

Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em

  • Our five Survivors have to make THREE picks for the final week the SZN.
  • If we don’t have a solo champ, we’ll fire up a pick-off next week.
  • We’ve got two cheeks full of David’s sunflower seeds. We love Kansas State over Kansas in the SUNFLOWER SHOWDOWN.
  • If Kansas State wins, it will face Kansas in the Big-12 title game.
  • We’re also fond of Penn State (over Michigan State) and LSU (at free-falling Texas A&M).
  • Other games of interest include Texas over Baylor; Alabama over Auburn and Washington over Wazzu.
  • Follow every matchup here

 

WEEKLY AWARDS

Dot the "i" in Moxie Award
Given to the boldest pick - WITH A COMMENT - so be sure to leave one!

@LeviLeo (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "The badgers are just happy they didn't ruin the 3rd longest active streak of making a bowl game. They lose to the gophs once again and the best trophy and most played rivalry in college football goes to MN"
Merf says: You can have Paul Bunyan's Axe. I'll take his Ox.

 

Play Like a Champion Award
The very best comment

@cegriffi (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "22 picks?! 22?! I hope somebody goes perfect here and then realizes if they even bet a $10 parlay they could have probably quit their job…"
Merf says: So a $1 parlay with 22 bets at -110 would pay...$1.5 million. Of course, Georgia is -100,000, so our straight up bets are probably going to pay a little less. Then again, Georgia Tech is +80,000...

 

Lennay Kekua Memorial Award
The most convincing comment

@kempsoos (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Michigan always loses this game. They are just the mitten shaped little brother state. I am the oldest sibling of the family. Much like Ohio state. We’ve got all the good looks, the brains, and we’re the ones mom and dad had on purpose."
Merf says: Yes, but the state of Ohio looks like a 3-year-old's first attempt at a circle.

 

The "I'm a Man, I'm 40!" Award
The spiciest take

@mahatma19 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Wait, are all of these matchups "rivalries?" Do people in AZ care or is it NBA season there?"
Merf says: HEY NOW. The Territorial Cup is the "oldest certified rivalry trophy in college football." I think Chris Paul won the first one.

 

 

MORE PICK COMMENTS


@GraciousJohnny (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Thanks for the college season. I enjoyed this more than NFL. "
Merf says: So Gracious, Johnny! We loved it too. Recharge for a week. Then start studying your Bowl pick'em matchups!

 

@Manfresh (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "The band is not in the field…they left"
Merf says: Yeah, @Manfresh. They left last week. And Finals start next week. You missed the party.

 

@BigJake08 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Frogs not only win but might get Matt Campbell fired!"
Merf says: Lane Kiffin to Iowa State?

 

@MONSTERXXX (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH !!!"
Merf says: Almost. USC's Conquest goes "A-WOOOOOO A-WOOOOOO!" I wanna hear you hit those high notes after that win over Notre Dame!

 

@Pharaohspicks (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Extra Gravy"
Merf says: You took Notre Dame? NO GRAVY FOR YOU!

 

@JFrog2276 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN RIVALRY WEEK... but TCU gets a cakewalk to a big 12 rematch against Kansas State. On the other hand, Rattler lights up Clemson destroying their CFP hopes and Notre Dame wins a close one against USC to win the Jeweled Shillelagh and knock USC out of the CFP talks."
Merf says: I'll grant you two of these three predictions.

 

@StatCzar (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Might have used up all my good college football picking making those deep runs in Trampled Trombone and SEC-vivor. So Merf, like the Gin Blossoms say, if you don’t expect too much from me you might not be let down. "
Merf says: My Survivor year can also be summed up by the Gin Blossoms - Hey Jealousy.

 

 

Yours in baggy khakis and bubble gum,
Merf

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