Discussion
<< Back to post list

MM Sweet 16 Picks

by @TheCommish 🏀  MM Free ⚡

Friends in Madness,

Alabama? Of course. Houston? Expected. Texas? They're hot. 'Zaga? Experience wins. Michigan Sta...

THAT GUY AGAIN? Pick against Green Elf Izzo at your own risk...

 

SWEET 16 PICKS

 

Survivor is down to exactly 10% of those who started. Pick'em hopefuls are chasing the overall lead (38 wins) and Rounds 2-6 lead (15 wins).

And our Bracket pools? Let's be real. Most of us are rooting for unadulterated chaos.

Not just because it's fun to watch, but because, for 90%+ of us, the only path we have to Bracket glory is nailing our one (or two) off-the-beaten-path Final Four picks.

And for the select few of us, our off-the-beaten-path champion is still alive.

Per the Big Bracket main page, here is how many champion picks each of our Sweet 16 teams received:

  • (1) Alabama: 507 champion picks
  • (1) Houston: 380
  • (2) Texas: 195
  • (2) UCLA: 188
  • (3) Gonzaga: 145
  • (4) UConn: 92
  • (3) Xavier: 17
  • (4) Tennessee: 14
  • (3) Kansas State: 12
  • (8) Arkansas: 12
  • (6) Creighton: 7
  • (5) Miami: 6
  • (7) Michigan State: 1
  • (5) San Diego State: 0
  • (9) FAU: 0
  • (15) Princeton: 0

San Diego State has NO SHORTAGE of locker room material. "Arkansas got TWELVE picks and we got none?!"

And Commish sees you, lone Izzo picker. If they win, you're filming a SZN promo video wearing his green elf suit ok?

Maybe you can film it WITH Tommy Iz. Does anyone know Izzo? GET HIM IN THE POOL!!!

 

BRACKET ROUND 2 RECAP

In Tuesday's update email, Commish ran through our top potential Brackets in all three bracket pools.

We post all emails on the website, and you can check that one out here.

Remember, our Bracket champ last year had just 89 points. Not saying we'll see a repeat performance (100+ is certainly possible), but a lot (A LOT) of us are still in the running.

 

ROUND 2 PICK STATS

 

SURVIVOR

We're down to 204 steely survivors - exactly 10% of our starting total.

Picks per round from here: 2, 2, 1, 1

If you do the math, you realize what this means: To have a pick available in the National Championship game, you MUST pick the two Elite Eight winners that then lose in the Final Four.

It's some next level shit. But at The SZN, we're about next level shit. And we crown single champions. Always. Because No Damn Ties.

And thus, at this stage, all Survivors MUST be thinking about how their picks will affect team availability in future rounds. Because, even if you lose in a certain round, making any pick(s) in that round means you place higher than people who didn't have any teams to pick.

  • As expected, we are HEAVY on Creighton, who is playing Cinderella (15-seed Princeton)
  • Just 31 Survivors (15%) had picked Creighton in the first two rounds. Almost ALL of the other 85% picked them in the Sweet 16
  • Creighton players: "When we make the Final Four, y'all will regret this!!"
  • Our other big picks: 4-seed Tennessee (over FAU) and 4-seed UConn (over Arkansas)
  • We have people on the other side of both of those games (I see you, FAU picker!), and people on EVERY team except SDSU and Princeton
  • Honestly, Commish is surprised we don't have a single person who said "I KNOW 80%+ will be on Creighton... so I'm gonna take my chances with Princeton knowing that if they win, I just might win this whole thing."
  • Vegas would actually agree with your logic here!
  • As of writing, we had the same number of people on both sides of 'Zaga-UCLA, arguably the most compelling matchup of the Sweet 16

 

PICK'EM

@Randipoli won the first interval (Round of 64) with 28/32 correct. We're all chasing @panesh in the second interval (Rounds 2-6), who impressively nailed 15/16 in Round 2.

The overall lead (38/48) is shared by five people, with 13 more just a game behind, and 41 more two games back.

  • We're heaviest on Alabama (89%) over SDSU (11%)
  • (Oh wait, SDSU can absolutely use more locker room material!)
  • 17% of us either feel Princeton has a legit shot, or just want the fun of rooting for the 15-seed Tigers over Creighton (83%)
  • As expected, UCLA-'Zaga is our closest matchup, with essentially 50% of us on either side.
  • As Commish always says in pick'ems, to win you need two things: Correct upset picks (because upsets WILL happen; you can't just pick chalk the whole way) and getting almost all of the "toss-ups" correct.
  • I consider anything tighter than 66/34 to be a toss-up, which means we have two toss-ups in this round: UCLA-'Zaga, and KSU-MSU. In the latter, we slightly favor the 3-seed Wildcats over the 7-seed Spartans.

 

 

PICK COMMENTS



@bkatzmoses (Survivor: CREI, UH): "I'm so clever.....now watch 70% of people take Creighton AND Houston."
Commish says: You're right about Creighton, but people are saving Houston! More than 70% still have the Cougars available for future usage.

 

@Logan2273 (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "Is Princeton the least talked about Cinderella team ever?"
Commish says: Ooooh interesting question. I think three things are at play here: 1/ FDU's Round 1 win drowned out everything else, 2/ Double digit seeds making S16 or even Final Four runs is becoming WAY more common, and 3/ Princeton has this weird "they were quite good way back when, right?" name recognition - plus it's Princeton, which everyone knows (and many dislike) for prestige reasons - and so it doesn't carry the same fun factor as, say, Saint Peter's or VCU or Loyola.

 

@CornOnTheCobb (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "As long as FAU loses and someone on Tennessee take a flagrant 1 for destroying Alijah Martin at some point, I'll be happy with whatever happens lol"
Commish says: Just because dude tried to dunk at the end of the FDU win?! FDU was the greatest juggernaut college basketball had ever seen. Let a guy celebrate!

 

@Deacon (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "Wait, we're not supposed to eat the chalk? No wonder I'm not winning..."
Commish says: [Sees Princeton and MSU picks] [Gives @Deacon a big pat on the head]

 

@Larrylegend (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "Just for reference.. I pick these the same pattern I pick my nose. Also Alabama is gonna win I have a gut feeling"
Commish says: Wait wait, we need more information. Is it like, you're full meditation pose, eyes closed, and as you pick your nose, each time you make one March Madness pick before going back to your nose? Or is it more like you pick your nose all the damn time and are like "I KNOW THY HOLY PATTERN AND SHALL APPLY IT TO PICKS AS IN PICKING AS IN LIFE"?

 

@dylancu (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "I give up"
Commish says: SOMEONE NEEDS TO RICKROLL DYLAN. If you're reading this and know Dylan, Rickroll him RIGHT NOW.

 

@Salroc_ (Survivor: CREI, CONN): "SALROC’S BRACKET STINKS, BUT HES STILL STAYIN ALIVE-STAYIN ALIVE AH AH AH AH"
Commish says: Commish's bracket REALLY stinks, and I'm not alive in Survivor, but I WILL STILL SING THIS SONG WITH YOU

 

@TonyInLA (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "This year’s tournament has been a complete s-show. I like upsets but not this many. want to see the best teams play the best teams. Who’s with me on that?"
Commish says: This is Side A...

 

@Keiffapro (MM Round-by-Round Pick'em): "I don't care how well I do in any of the picks at this point (though my bracket is decent), this is one of the most fun tournaments I can remember in a long time. Let's go FAU"
Commish says: This is Side B. LET'S BATTLE.

 

Yours in Hooptopia,
The Commish

Discussion