Friends in football,

First, before you're like "HEY COMMISH DO U MATH?", we're in 2 picks per week territory now for BIG Survivor (and two other survivor pools). So the percent in the image above is the percent of people who picked that team as one of their two picks.

We clearly believe Joe Burrow and the Bengals are fully back. Because while they're 1 win better than the Texans so far (5-3 vs. 4-4), the Texans have a better point differential (+22 vs. -7).

If C.J. Stroud can continue his other-wordly rookie campaign, we might be in for another devastating Week 10.

In other news, y'all LOVE the new "Wins Battle" format. Dedicated some of the stats space below to our Week 10 Wins Battle pool.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

Nearly 90% of BIG survivors who had the Cowboys available, picked them.

Here is the "adjusted-for-availability" pick rate rundown:

• Bengals: 69% picked, 71% adjusted for availability
• Cowboys: 50%, 89%
• Steelers: 26%, 27%
• Bears: 14%, 14%
• Bills: 12%, 67%
• Ravens: 6%, 24%

So, with the Bills (vs. Broncos), Cowboys (vs. Giants), and Bengals (vs. Texans), at least two-thirds of the people who had those teams available picked them in all three cases.

The Bears were picked by ONE survivor heading into this week. YAHTZEE.

The Bengals were also our top pick in the Week 10 Wins Battle, with 88% of us picking them to finish with a better regular season record than the Browns.

So, once again, we clearly believe Burrow and the Boys are FULLY back. Our most lopsided matchups:

• Bengals (88%) to finish with more wins than the Browns
• Pats (87%) over Giants
• Chargers (86%) over Jets
• Bills (85%) over Saints
• Rams (83%) over Bears

And our most tightly picked matchups:

• Commanders (50.2%) over Raiders
• Texans (51%) over Vikings
• Cardinals (61%) over Panthers
• Colts (61%) over Falcons
• Eagles (63%) over Chiefs

The Texans-over-Vikings pick surprised Commish, for a bunch of reasons.

The Vikings already have one more win (5-4 vs. 4-4), AND they still have the Raiders, Packers, Bears, and Broncos on their schedule.

Sure, the Vikings now have Josh Dobbs at QB, but Dobbs has been a top 15 QB this year.

So are we just high on the Texans? Perhaps. But then why did we pile on the Bengals this week in our Survivors?!

Ten of the 16 matchups in our Week 2 Wins Battle pool feature teams currently within 1 win of each other.

This underscores what makes the format so fun. It's built to deliver close matchups that you can track throughout the year as standings see-saw.

Despite this stat, Giants-Pats was the only repeat matchup between the Week 2 and Week 10 pools. It's just the Week 10 matchup felt a little more, you know, bleak.

51% of Loser Survivors picked the Browns in a matchup of (arguably) the league's two best defenses.

The Browns are at the Ravens, owners of the league's best point differential (+115). If there's a time to pick the Browns, this is probably it.

But even if it goes the distance (27 picks) - which, mind you, a Week 1 survivor has never done - you don't HAVE to pick the Browns.

We'll see if current MVP favorite Lamar can solve Myles Garrett and Co.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@kempsoos (Panthers, Survivor #3): "What has the SZN driven me to do?!?"
Commish says: BE A HERO, THAT'S WHAT.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Bergssurvival (Bengals and Cowboys, Survivor #2): "HOW COME BENGAL TIGERS DONT LIVE IN TEXAS EVERYTHING ELSE DOES"
Commish says: I'VE SPENT 34% OF MY WEEK THINKING ABOUT THIS.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Flem (Cowboys, Survivor #3): "Tommy DeVito couldn’t hack it at Syracuse. I can hear Micah Parsons licking his lips from here."
Commish says: NO NOTES.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@nikkiwits (Vikings and Ravens, BIG Survivor): "The time is ripe for an upset pick - Vikes over Saints. They've been tried and tested with injuries, yet the win train continues. I believe they can get another W against an old foe (we don't forget 2008). Will it be another miracle in Minneapolis or will it even be a contest? SKOL!"
Commish says: An INVERSE Hedge of Happiness... in Week 10 of BIG Survivor... with not just BFIG Title Belt dreams on the line but also the Vikings' season hanging in the balance? HOW COLD IS THE ICE RUNNING THROUGH YOUR VEINS?!

MORE COMMENTS

 

@kittywittywoo (Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo)): "Whoever picked this week's Thursday night matchup should get fired."
Commish says: I'LL MAKE A CALL.

@trigger125 (Bears and Bengals, BIG Survivor): "Commish has chosen the worst time, in the history of humanity, to mandate 2 picks (with the outbreak of smallpox as a close second) Seriously, does anyone feel good about picking against Belichick in Foxborough, or (newly returned) Kyler Murray in AZ. Do we feel good about Kenny Picket, Matt Canada (Fire Canada!) and a negative point differential vs Green Bay? How bout New Orleans in MN against Josh Dobbs turned Clarke Kent, turned Superman. We betting on that? Anyone turning their nose and picking the TB/Ten or Chi/Car matchups? “You need to save some teams for weeks like this” Some survivors will say. But saving teams in Survivor is like saving your closer for the next game of the World Series, he only matters if you can get there. And if you saved teams, are you feeling good now? The 9ers have two back-to-back atrocious losses. The Bills have ruined Survivor for more people than Russell Hantz. And if you saved Baltimore, congratulations: you get a division rivalry with Deshaun Watson, Miles Garrett and the one of the best rushing attacks in football. I love it when I save teams and still get beat. I’m taking Cincinnati and Chicago, or LV, or Pittsburg, or...? Thanks Commish. This was more fun when we all picked 1 winner and 100 some people finished the season undefeated."
Commish says: You, good sir, knew this moment was coming. You knew it. Matt Canada might have been unprepared, but you were not. And why do we not accept 100-person ties for a "championship"? BECAUSE NO DAMN TIES ON THE SZN!!

@MayTheFavrthBeWithYou (Bears and Bengals, BIG Survivor): "Commish, last week I had a flashback to that time when my dad was disappointed in me for my entire life. I let you down. I took a HEAVY favorite, the Browns. I blew the shot at BFIG infamy. I am sorry. I vow to make at least one slightly unhinged pick the rest of this beautiful szn. This week? Well, it’s a 3.5 pt favorite, so really only scratching the surface of my mental illness here. But they’re 2-7. That’s gotta count for something. And as someone who religiously watched Tyler Bagent’s dad snap arms on ESPN2 throughout the 90s, I couldn’t NOT take the Bears here. Chicago by a thousand. See you next week."
Commish says: THAT'S IT. PUT THIS MAN IN THE SZN HALL OF FAME. This is the FOURTH team you've picked when they've been widely viewed as being in the bottom 5 of all NFL teams this SZN. And you've won ALL FOUR. I've seen all I need to see.

@zachewing (Bears and Bills, Survivor #2): "Bears. Bagent. Bills. Battlestar Galactica."
Commish says: Has the reigning BFIG champ ever won Survivor #2 the next year? [Checks notes.] NO. MORE COMMENTS FROM YOU.

@rnorwood (Week 10 Wins Battle): "Jared Leto became the first person to legally climb the Empire State building. I myself claim many first ascents of barstools throughout the untamed West. Makes one feel alive, exposed. Vulnerable."
Commish says: WHERE'S MY "BARSTOOL CONQUERING NIGHT" INVITE, NORWOOD

@judigregry (Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo)): "Like a new parent, who loses all sense of self and places the needs of her children first, I’m prepared to sacrifice my weewoo picks if the pick gods will continue to smile down on our top 3 "Mom Said So" squad members. Keep pickin like champs @aidangregry, @Kimbraun58 and @williamoswald "
Commish says: Repping Squads in the pick comments! More of this!

@mahatma19 (Young, QB One-and-Done): "Anyone else notice how weird it is that Bryce Young is wearing shoulder pads in his photo and pretty much no one else is? "
Commish says: I AM SHOOK.

@LAhomer88 (Bengals and Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "I’m running out of options here, but DAL over NYG has to be a pretty solid lock. The Giants have some stooge named Devito playing QB that cannot pass. How does any NFL team have a QB who is so inept that the simple act of executing a pass play is fear-inducing? They should just run the triple option or something."
Commish says: Someday an NFL owner is going to hire the offensive coordinator at Navy and have him just solely install an offense for a third string QB.

@Shnag88 (Bears and Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "20% Moxie, 80% Playing to win! This is the official fork in the road of playing to survive and playing to win! (GULP) GO BEARS!"
Commish says: YOU CHOSE THE CORRECT FORK PRONG.

@dgsaites (Week 10 Wins Battle): "HAIKU:
Thursday night football
You could not pay me to watch
P S F*** the bears"
Commish says: The fact "P.S. F*** the Bears" works as an ending haiku line just made my week.

@JETaylor21 (Patriots and Seahawks, Survivor #2): "Wtf am I doing? Am I seriously going to pick the 2-7 Pats in Germany?! Am I crazy? I had trouble picking them while they were dominant with Brady. I mean, I’m a Jets fan. So I despise… hate with all my soul… the Pats. And to make matters worse, I’ll remind you again I’m also a Browns fan. So the whole Belichick thing to the Pats… I don’t know, I might hate the pats more than anyone on earth. And I’m picking them?! Really? They are actually underdogs too!! +1.5. This is not moxie - it’s madness. BUT… *sighs while cracking the saddest grin you’ve ever seen* it is in Germany. Fun fact, the Pats are actually a fan favorite in Germany (this is due to before streaming became popular and possible, so mid-late 2000’s, Germany would show one game on national TV and due to their dominance…the pats were shown most often ). So they are walking into a true home game. Maybe even more so than Gillette right now. Indy also has to travel slightly further (around 800 miles) josh downs, maybe their best WR, went down again last week. The colts are banged up in general. And just went against a tough gritty saints D. The Pats don’t have a bad D. They are 18th in passing but 9th in rushing ranks on D. Are we really saying Minshew is going to win this game? He does the London thing. Not Germany. Idk… I really think I’m going to pick the Pats. Lol. Plus there is just a gut thing which is how I won 3rd in baseball 2 years ago. And why pick Seattle and not Dallas? Am I truly nuts? Well maybe… but, the problem there is, the last time I picked a 16 point favorite was in week 3… Dallas. Who lost to Arizona, their only win. I’m not letting that happen again. Dallas probably rolls… but I have a rule don’t let the same team take you out. Too similar. Also Seattle is 5-1 at home this year. Far east coast teams traveling to west coast are horrible historically (I think 3-6 this season). Plus, it’s Washington. AND there is some kind of symmetry in picking against the team that beat the Pats last week while picking the Pats. Lol. Shit. I’m really going to pick the Pats. That’s great. lol. I hate me. But, bonus, if they do lose and KO me, it’s just another thing to add to the list of reason I hate Bill and the Pats. So F you Bill…I’m at peace with this decision."
Commish says: STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS COMMENT OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE #1!

@Rict714 (Cardinals, Survivor #3): "Did I really just pick the Arizona Cardinals TO WIN in a Survivor Pool? No wonder I haven't won a damn thing (except of course for the $50,000.00 Scratcher I hit, yeah baby!) this whole Football year!"
Commish says: I would like to confirm that I asked @Rict714 to tell the truth and the man actually won that much on a damn scratcher.

@Schonday (Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo)): "Schonday school is now in session. We have gone 3 for 3, and with our growing congregation (3 people, 1 fish and some random dog that followed me home) I look to further grow my ministry by getting back to basics. No holier than thou rants, or solemn, thoughtful soliloquies. (Although the package NBC put together for Hamlin was pretty good). This week, there is only one choice. That would be the Cardinals. The resumption of Kyler Murray's career starts now. Like a man who tastes BLL for the first time, the sheer overwhelming enjoyment will provide a smile for all those who follow the Schon. After everything that has been said about him, he is ready to Murr(ay)der yhe Falcons. He who has been humbled can find redemption in the desert."
Commish says: Schonday School would have made a solid 90s Nicktoon.

@Paters (Bengals and Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "I've never made it this far before and at this point I have no clue what I'm doing."
Commish says: YES YOU DO.

@BigJake08 (Bengals and Steelers, BIG Survivor): "If Kyler Murray comes back and balls out and ruins this for me and his team's draft status... well I don't know what I'll do."
Commish says: I KNOW. YOU CAN GET KYLER IN THE POOL!!!

@ColleenQueen (Weekly Pick'em (WeeWoo)): "Trevor Lawrence is HOT."
Commish says: ON THE FIELD OR IN YOUR DREAMS, COLLEEN

 

Yours in football,
The Commish