Friends in football,

Jags-Titans has been one of the most destructive matchups in SZN history.

First and most damagingly, because longtime SZN vets have been nudged (tricked?) into watching so many Jags-Titans games.

Second, because weird shit happens in Jags-Titans games and knocks people out.

In 2013, @owskijazz gained instant entry into the SZN Hall of Fame for picking the 0-8 Jags - at that point a candidate for worst NFL team of all time - against the 4-4 Titans. A full 80% of BFIG was on Tennessee. @owskijazz stood on a very lonely Jags island.

The Chad Henne Jags were outgained 362-214 but somehow won 29-27. (How do you score 29 points on just 214 yards?! WEIRD SHIT HAPPENS.)

Since then, more destruction. And today, a huge percentage of BFIG is on the Jags. Vegas says Jags by 7. Commish says flip a coin, only one side of the coin says "LOL" and the other says "YOLO".

Scroll to the Stats section for one of the wilder stats we've ever uncovered...

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

The AFC South has been our worst or second-worst division by BFIG pick success rate FOR FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS.

In BIG Surivor, year after year, we are terrible at picking games involving AFC South teams. Look at how much worse the AFC South is this year vs. every other division.

BFIG win rate, by division of the team picked to win:

• WORST: AFC South (869-2,090; 29% win rate)
• 2ND WORST: NFC North (2,903-2,019; 59% win rate)
• BEST: AFC East (7,010-876; 89% win rate)

The kicker? This year doesn't hold a damn candle to last year's AFC South atrocities. The whole division was 47-4,434 when picked in BFIG in 2022. THAT'S A 1 PERCENT WIN RATE, MY FRIENDS.

OH, YOU WANT MORE? The AFC South was worst, AGAIN, in 2021. And it was second-worst in both 2020 and 2019. It's like this literally every year.

To those who say, "Commish, isn't this year's sample affected by the Jags' huge loss in Week 3," the answer is "statistically, sure, BUT the Jags still had to lose that damn game when being massively picked AND there haven't been many meaningful wins to counter-balance that loss AND three of the four AFC South teams are under-.500 when picked in BFIG this year." So, no matter how you look at it, that division has been a minefield.

The AFC South isn't Jameis Winston bad, because nothing is Jameis Winston bad, but it's definitely still a chaos agent. Pick AFC South teams at your own risk.

There's some mysterious law of WeeWoo that says our overall leader will be right about 105-44 after Week 10.

Maybe it's less mysterious and more "you can only be SO good at picking winners in the NFL", but still, the consistency is amazing.

Our WeeWoo overall leader's record through Week 10:

• 2023: 106-43
• 2022: 103-46
• 2021: 105-44
• 2020: 109-37
• 2019: 103-44

2020 was a weird/outlier year in a lot of ways. If you ignore that, our leader at this point has had 103, 103, 105, and 106 wins.

Commish can see it now. Next year, after all of two weeks, we'll have some of y'all writing in your WeeWoo pick comment, "I MUST GET 12 WINS THIS WEEK TO BE STATISTICALLY ON PACE FOR GLORY."

But, really, this is a testament to just how consistent the NFL has made its product in terms of being just the right amount of (un)predictable to maximize television ratings.

Somehow, nine brave and EN FUEGO souls are alive in BIG Survivor, Survivor #2, and Survivor #3.

Shout-out to @Armouth, @Benchwarmer, @Gt2460b, @HINRICPT, @mastashake21, @MSW, @Nipsy37, @ottneymp, and @Venez68.

Commish scanned the picks for a handful of these folks, and they're mostly picking different teams in all the pools. That's a LOT of successful picking.

We've had ONE notable case of a person finishing top 10 in both of our main two survivors, by largely making the same picks whenever possible. @DTHOMAS61 in 2021. It's definitely not the odds-on play, but when it works, it REALLY works.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@TigersLovePepper (Weekly Pick'em): "So many upsets on deck this week… starting with Baker Mayfield shredding the overrated 9ers secondary! And then the Raiders defense will put Tua out and steal a win in Miami. I don’t write the future, I just read it. I’ll be watching from Hawai’i at 7 am HST"
Commish says: You, and this comment, are so VERY extra, Pepperman. You gonna parlay Bucs and Raiders moneyline? ARE YOU?!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@DaDarkKiller (Commanders and Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "Somehow I am in the final 300. How? I don’t know, god is real I guess. Sam Howell - being the real MVP candidate - is about to send Danny DeVito back home to the loving embrace of his mother… problem is, when he comes home, Sam is gonna be waiting there, eating Tommy’s mom's famous mashed potatoes. In the master bedroom, the bed will have Commanders sheets, pillows, blankets, and PJs. Meanwhile… Calvin Ridley finally decides it is time to pick on the over for himself and absolutely balls out.."
Commish says: This bit has legs. Should SNL do a "Tommy's mommy's house" skit, where each time Tommy comes home hoping for some good home-cooked R&R, the opposing QB who just kicked his ass is there, having already made himself at home? RHETORICAL QUESTION CALL PETE DAVIDSON.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@bowser48 (Weekly Pick'em): "32 AFC wins vs. 21 NFC wins, after 10 weeks."
Commish says: I've always been curious how predictive this stat is. Like, at the season's halfway mark (right now), when we've seen AFC vs. NFC matchup win imbalances in past years, does that imbalance continue? Also, if you adjusted for matchup quality (in other words, a 4-1 team would be favored to beat a 1-4 team no matter which conferences they belong to), does the effect remain? If you've looked into this (or have a link), reply!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Schonday (Weekly Pick'em): "Time for another round of Schonday school. When we first started out, this was meant to be a response on how teams that have absolutely no chance in winning somehow overcome the odds and won. I stated that Pride is the factor people tend to miss. After 4 weeks of informative. almost biblical choices, I am here to say there could be another element to this. There has to be an element of overcoming odds involved, otherwise what's the purpose of holding our breath on last second kick that covers, no wait, doesn't cover, no wait, covers (Buffalo BLLs, Im looking at you). This week, Chapter 3 of the Book of Ditka, allows these overcoming the odds due to karmic resonance. That is why you need to go with Cleveland. While everyone is excited about Deshaun Watsons season went, there would still be some pockets of people that don't believe he should be on any team. One nad shoulder later, and we have DTR coming in, against their biggest rival, to make it a little more palatable to root for the Browns. Sunday, the sun is a little brighter, the air is a little crisper and Pittsburgh will not TCB against DTR. "
Commish says: If Dorian Thompson-Robinson beats the Steelers, just change your username to @Moses and get it over with.

MORE COMMENTS

@Jmkahn (Lions and Commanders, BIG Survivor): "I was never really convinced Sam Howell isn't just Taylor Heinicke in a wig. I'm still not. And this seems like a winnable game for Heinicke. Same goes for Stafford and his Lions."
Commish says: And I was never really convinced that Sam Howell isn't just what happened when someone asked AI to make a Baker Mayfield-Josh Allen baby. The AI would beat the DeVito Giants, too.

@DSchill (Commanders and Jaguars, Survivor #2): "I had to change my picks again after learning about injuries to Houston WRs, and honestly, the freakin Cardinals scare me... Why am I showing confidence in JAX instead of CJ's Texans? Substitution, mass confusion all inside my head! "
Commish says: THEY BOTH SCARE ME. Houston is very banged up and while Stroud has been on another planet, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him come back to Earth. And the Jags... well I already covered that extensively in this email AND I HOPE MY FEAR IS MISPLACED.

@Jzeldes (Dolphins and Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "I’m not picking the 49ers just in case I keep on surviving and then I’ll get to pick the 49ers. And the ravens. And the…. Bengals? Playing the long game as long as I’m here. "
Commish says: Ugh. The Bengals part of this comment did NOT age well. (But good job not picking the Bengals this week?)

@blahblah (Commanders and Jaguars, Survivor #2): "I’m just begging to get knocked out with this"
Commish says: Next time pick the Titans when making a comment like this, mmmmk?

@MagicDreams (Commanders and 49ers, Survivor #2): "After surviving the Armageddon that eliminated 80% of the field last week this suddenly feels very serious. Moxie will be needed to be the last man standing. But that can start next week. New York’s football Giants would need to play the Lilliputian’s to emerge victorious and they stand little chance against the NFL’s passing yards leader who is clearly in Command. The plucky Bucs have surprised so far but they shan’t defeat the mighty 49ers on the left coast this Sunday. I predict their points total will top out at a Baker’s dozen."
Commish says: Can you imagine how good the Browns would be this year if they... just kept Baker Mayfield? Meanwhile, I'm not convinced Tommy "Mommy's House" DeVito could beat the Lilliputians. Need more data.

@ekahn93 (Stroud, QB One-and-Done): "I'm pretty sure Dak Prescott plays the QB one-and-done pool. The Cowboys had that game won as soon as Tommy Devito stepped onto the field. But in an incredibly un-sportsman like fashion, the Cowboys acted like a college team and kept throwing the ball. Dak wasn't benched until half way through the 4th quarter, after his 5th TD. They showed him smiling on the sideline because he knew he just jumped up this pools ranking. There is no other explanation."
Commish says: GET DAK IN THE POOL! EVEN IF HE'S ALREADY IN THE POOL!!!

@rnorwood (Commanders, Survivor #3): "Why does this feel like the long and treacherous path to mediocrity? Watch this be the week that Tommy 'Danny' DeVito figures out how to throw for 300 and 4 with no INTs and tote the rock for another 60."
Commish says: In a DECADE of absurd comments, none have been more absurd than this, Norwood. If DeVito took a sommelier exam and sniffed wine containing 4 TD passes, he'd be like, "Mmmm... what is that... tennis ball? Burnt rubber? No. It smells like the elixir of impossibility. I'll have a full glass, please."

@Andyymann (Weekly Pick'em): "When are you going to offer a Chat-GPT plugin? I’d love to blame the AI for my shit picks"
Commish says: "Can you tell me, without REALLY telling me, that my picks are bad?" ... "OK, can you tell me they're really bad?" ... "But can you also tell me there's a chance?!"

@Wolfeman (Jaguars and Texans, BIG Survivor): "I know, I know... don't pick division games. But rules are made to be broken, and desperate times..."
Commish says: Don't get it twisted - Commish KNOWS you must break a survivor rule or three en route to the BFIG Title Belt. That's why the rules aren't "don't do X" - they're "avoid X if you can".

@dgsaites (Weekly Pick'em): "HAIKU:
Football and pumpkin
The lions control the north
This cannot be real."
Commish says: [Whispers] Passtronaut Rising is a 5-syllable phrase...

@Ziqness (Weekly Pick'em): "Unstoppable force (Vikings) meet the unmovable rock (Broncos). Mile High DangerRuss high on life right now ready to put a stop to the Doobie Dobbs Train. Classic Cheech and Chong match up goes to Cheech!"
Commish says: I can't handle the Russ and the Broncos whiplash this year. A month ago we all thought they were actually the worst team in the NFL, that Sean Payton was washed up, and that Russ forgot how to cook YEARS ago. And now... we're like, the Broncos are good!

@YesThereIsAnS (Weekly Pick'em): "I don’t like betting against Andy Reid after a bye. "
Commish says: The people who do like this activity are in bad, bad shape.

@Autovhanchilly (Jaguars and Broncos, BIG Survivor): "In honor of Daniel… BRONCOS COUNTRY, LETS F***ING RIDE"
Commish says: DANIEL WHO. JONES? RADCLIFFE? DAY-LEWIS?!?

@TheGMs_Wife (Texans and 49ers, Survivor #2): "Root root root for the home teams! This is one bold set of piiiickkkksssss"
Commish says: HI GM DID YOU KNOW YOUR WIFE IS OUT HERE MAKING INVERSE HEDGE OF HAPPINESS TEXANS PICKS IN A NOT-SO-SUBTLE EFFORT TO POTENTIALLY DESTROY YOUR LIFE?

@Irishkelly22 (Bills, Survivor #3): "Go Bills wake up!!"
Commish says: YOU KNOW THAT ONE PART IN "THE LION KING" WHEN SIMBA TELLS HIS DAD TO WAKE UP

 

Yours in football,
The Commish