Friends in football,

Commish studied his "all-time Majority Picks" spreadsheet and... I'm pretty sure we've never piled THIS hard onto a 3-point favorite.

You: The Bucs are favored by 3.5, Commish.

Me: OK, sure, but Vegas hasn't factored in that Jim "The Choo Choo" Caldwell now has more influence in Carolina.

PANTHERS BY A BILLION.

(Kidding. I'm hoping for the best for y'all.) But if you're one of the few BIG survivors NOT on the Bucs, you have to be feeling very good about your position this morning.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

What's our REAL confidence level in the Bucs? They're a 33% pick in Survivor #3.

In other words, perhaps the LEAST confident we've ever been in a Majority Pick (which we define as 50%+ in 1-pick weeks and 70%+ in 2-pick weeks).

Still, no matter our confidence level, Majority Picks are 29-9 all-time in BIG Survivor, and 2-0 so far this year.

Loser Survivor could end Monday night if the Bengals can find a way to beat the Jags.

14 of our 19 Loser Survivors are on the Bengals as one of their two picks this week.

And another 9 are on the Saints (hosting a perhaps-wounded Lions team).

We've seen fireworks like this before. Look no further than last year's BIG Survivor, where in Week 14, the field went from 32 to 1 in a matter of hours.

50 of us are on the Panthers in the "All 32" One-and-Done. COMMISH LOVES THE PICK.

You have to pick every team once. Every. Team.

The Panthers aren't going to win many games this year. They might even go 1-16. BUT YOU HAVE TO PICK THEM.

So why not pick them hoping for that "fired the coach" bounce?

Why not pick them hoping for that Choo Choo Caldwell juju? (The Lions would be 11-0 right now, by the way, if they kept Caldwell as their head coach.)

More than 2% of us should have been on the Panthers. Especially given 84% of us still have yet to pick them (the highest % of any team).

Did our BFIG "leaders" start using the big boys?

That's a trick question this week, as the Eagles and Niners play each other, the Chiefs are on the road at a suddenly spicy Packers team, and the Ravens and Bills are on a bye.

Still, it's noteworthy that only one of our four leaders (meaning they've picked teams with the fewest combined wins so far) took the Bucs. Great position to be in, as they can root hard for the mild Panthers upset and then be VERY close to a title.

Their picks:

• @jevenson8 (86 wins, or 5.7 wins per picked team): Jags and Colts
• @Salvador56 (88 wins): Steelers and Jags
• @Dominicanloco28 (90 wins): Chiefs and Bucs
• @Filthymick (90 wins): Steelers and Rams

@jevenson8 is NOT letting off the gas, no matter what. They could have picked the Rams (4-point Vegas favorites) but went with the Colts (1-point favorites, on the road, in a divisional game) instead.

Maybe they didn't feel good about the Rams vs. that Browns D. Or maybe they refuse to do anything other than play the long game, and see a Week 15-17 stretch for the Rams that includes matchups with the Commanders, Saints, and Giants.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@suckitspanos (Colts and Chargers, Survivor #3): "Even though I’m picking the chargers to win… Spanos can still suck it"
Commish says: Picking a 1-point favorite on the road in a divisional game... AND picking the team that's taken years off your life?! Get this man a Moxie Award and GET SPANOS IN THE POOL!!!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@aj281184 (Bucs and Jags, All 32 One-and-Done): "Looks like I'm going with the Not-South-Beach Florida Parlay. This will definitely blow out into the ocean."
Commish says: This was FAR from the only "Oh God, DOUBLE Florida?" comment this week. But it was the best one.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@billhaughney (Chargers and Jaguars, Survivor #3): "Is it Moxier to give up a possible win from one of these teams as the best strategy, or to try and get a win from both over an upcoming schedule that seems to have very few possible wins. I say Moxier (and smarter) to pick them both and guarantee one win from the two, so LET’S LIGHT THIS CANDLE!! Now I actually don’t have to care this week either. Whew! That’s worth something too!"
Commish says: I cannot argue with your logic. But Bill, MY MAN, you are aware you need to win both, right? (Right. You are just showing deference to the Survivor Gods in your comment. I get it. Smart man.)

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@kbanaian (Dak, QB One-and-Done): "Speaking of QBs with commercials, Dak might soon win the award for "QB with greatest sponsorship money-to-postseason success ratio." "
Commish says: IT'S NOT DAK'S FAULT HIS COACH IS MIKE MCCARTHY.

MORE COMMENTS

@Windtamer (Weekly Pick'em): "I no longer have to cut my nails, they are worn down hanging onto this WeeWoo lead."
Commish says: You have six weeks to go. PACE YOURSELF, MAN.

@Sixers6thMan (Weekly Pick'em): "Hey, I’m just here for the comments at this point"
Commish says: This man is not a plant. I repeat. NOT A PLANT!

@geoff1254 (Falcons and Buccaneers, BIG Survivor): "These are def not the teams that I want to pick but I was down to three options. The Jets... well let’s face it, they leave something to be desired but yet the beat the Eagles. The poor panthers are a train wreck but yet again they did pull off a big upset for their only win of the season on Thursday night football. Picking the Bucs and their defense seems like a good plan but other rookie qbs have had success against their D (see CJ Stroud). I am hoping that he is the exception to the rule. And the last option was the rams against the browns. I see that being a trap game as Stafford loves to help the other team score on defense. So I am going to avoid that game completely. Two nfc south teams for the win! (Ugh!)"
Commish says: GIVE ME THE WORST DIVISION IN FOOTBALL FOR THE DOUBLE WIN! (But I get it. I really do!)

@rnorwood (Mahomes, QB One-and-Done): "Just as I was sifting through all the shitbags I have left to choose from, I realized that I'd saved Patrick Mahomes. It's a lot like that feeling you got when you learned that there is an exotic fifth state of matter called the Bose-Einstein condensate."
Commish says: SZN t-shirt alert! FRONT: Bose-Einstein and The Exotic Non-Shitbags ... BACK: This is a football t-shirt I PROMISE

@Jmkahn (Young, QB One-and-Done): ""Unleash the Bryce" TM"
Commish says: DO BETTER, KAHN.

@ekahn93 (Browning, QB One-and-Done): "F*** it. Jake Browning for 500 yards"
Commish says: THAT'S NOT HOW IT WORKS, OTHER KAHN.

@dgsaites (Weekly Pick'em): "HAIKU:
Get off the hype train/
Travis Kelce won’t save you/
Nor will Taylor Swift
LETS GO PACKERS "
Commish says: I THOUGHT EVERY HAIKU FOREVER WAS NOW GOING TO END WITH "LET'S F***ING GO PACK". What happened. I am in shambles over here.

@jeremy (Weekly Pick'em): "Nearly picked the Panthers, a coach firing usually gets the team excited. But this is not that kind of team"
Commish says: Do you hear that? It sounds like a train coming, Jeremy. CHOO CHOOOOOO.

@LAhomer88 (Weekly Pick'em): "Who would’ve guessed the Broncos/Texans game would be a matchup of two playoff contenders? I figured both of these franchises would be mired in mediocrity and shame again. Goes to show how terrible I am at predicting outcomes. In particular, I thought Houston would be bad for at least another year. Now all they need to do is buy the rights to the classic Oilers uniforms and wear them every game. They might become my second favorite team."
Commish says: Hey GM, have you met your new best friend, who is soon going to realize that being a Rams fan is less fun than being a Texans fan?

@ColleenQueen (Weekly Pick'em): "Who would have thought the Packers would beat the Lions?!? and the Vikes %$#@ the bed on Monday night football? It’s tough being a Packer fan in MN especially when I lost three games last week, and two games were the Packers W and the Vikings L! GO SKOL GO??? "
Commish says: Colleen, be careful. There are Vikings fans here.

@Autovhanchilly (Texans and Buccaneers, BIG Survivor): "STROUD BOYS AGAINST THE UNLIMITEDS. THE BAKER MAYFLOWER SAILING AWAY. And as always, shout out to dan"
Commish says: We've reached the point in the BIG Survivor year where, even if Commish doesn't know what you're talking about, you get featured because we want to know what our potential BFIG Title Belt wearers are thinking. THIS MAN, MY FRIENDS, MIGHT BE THAT PERSON.

@lgjendem (Dolphins and Jaguars, Survivor #3): "This is my 3rd time changing a pick within the hour, on top of that I am choosing two Florida teams and neither is playing the Carolina Panthers. Don't need a lobotomy at this rate. "
Commish says: Didn't need the last part of your comment at any rate. Let Florida STAND ON ITS OWN.

@Rednmeth (Dolphins and Jaguars, Survivor #3): "Who doesn’t love the Sunshine state "
Commish says: Answer: @lgjendem. Also, GREAT username.

@PCH (Pickett, QB One-and-Done): "Some of these names make me miss the days of Matt Hasselbach, Colt McCoy and the 'professional' backup QB."
Commish says: Pretty sure Matt Hasselbach is a future NFL QB whose parents are the grandson of Matt Hasselbeck and great-great-great granddaughter of Johan Sebastian Bach. SYMPHONIC SPIRAL THROWING, BABY.

@Ziqness (Bucs and Jags, All 32 One-and-Done): "Fired Coach team Vs Baker Mayfield as a Favorite team. When a movable object meets a Stoppable force. Plus it's a divisional game. Lord of BLLs have mercy on my 1-and-Done Soul"
Commish says: [Puts hands together and quietly murmurs something]

@shaunlat (Colts and Panthers, All 32 One-and-Done): "Why do I have no teams left? "
Commish says: Don't act like you didn't know this day was coming, Shaun!!

@Ouluboika (Bucs and Falcons, All 32 One-and-Done): "Yuck. "
Commish says: YOU KNEW IT WAS COMING.

@Schreindogg (Bucs and Colts, All 32 One-and-Done): "This feels gross "
Commish says: YOU KNEW IT!!

@man_cheetah (Weekly Pick'em): "Vikings can’t lose if they don’t play."
Commish says: TELL THAT TO TEDDY BRIDGEWATER. I'd also like to apologize for this comment.

@hikee44 (Tua, QB One-and-Done): "IT'S ON BABY! I've been holding like the Mel Gibson in Braveheart and now I'm ready to put up some points with Tua and the rest of the big guns I have available for the remainder of the season... Here we go!"
Commish says: Interval 3 gauntlet has been thrown!

@Shaggybrak (Purdy, QB One-and-Done): "Interesting fact about Brock Purdy: I know actually nothing interesting about Brock Purdy."
Commish says: But Brock Purdy knows everything about you. How do you feel about that?

@RedEd4 (Levis, QB One-and-Done): "'If you squint really hard, Will Levis looks like Dan Marino.' Not sure about that but let's see how he does against the Indy D."
Commish says: I'M STILL SQUINTING WHEN DO I STOP

@Ryanmiller727 (Howell, QB One-and-Done): "Howell make me proud"
Commish says: Sent this to Sam. He said "I GOT YOU, FAM". So I think we're good here.

@LeviLeo (Prescott, QB One-and-Done): "Seattle Pass Defense Booty "
Commish says: I MEAN, YEAH.

@ContrarianDFS (Carr, QB One-and-Done): "David Carr, throw it far! "
Commish says: HEY STOP YOU'RE IN THE WRONG CARR

@Gio (Weekly Pick'em): "If I choose the packers against the chiefs that means that Commish has to grant me a perfect score for the week, right? RIGHT?!?"
Commish says: NO BUT I LOVE YOU.

@DSchill (Weekly Pick'em): "I NEED A WIN TO BUY MY KIDS CHRISTMAS PRESENTS."
Commish says: GET YOUR KIDS IN THE POOL!!!

Yours in football,
The Commish