Friends in football,

The Year 15 BIG Survivor Title Belt will be awarded today. On the line is not only money, but outsized legend. Eternal glory. Immortality.

It's only the second time in our 15 years we've needed a regular season pickoff tiebreaker to crown our champ.

Straight pick'em. Most wins is the champ. If there's a tie, we use Confidence Rank (CR) to break the tie (1 = most confident). Full analysis below, in the Commish Commentary section.

Good luck to @Autovhanchilly, @Charlotteman1, and @Venez68. You're already legends in my book.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data

Which games will have the biggest impact on our BFIG Title Belt Pickoff?

Commish devised a very simple formula to set an "Importance Rank" for all 16 games: 1/ Do our finalists differ in their picks on this game?, and 2/ How high is the average Confidence Rank?

The most important game has differing picks AND relatively high average confidence. That game? Cardinals at Bears.

• @Autovhanchilly: Bears (CR 6)
• @Venez68: Cardinals (CR 15)
• @Charlotteman1: Bears (CR 2)

If the Cardinals pull the upset, @Venez68 is in GREAT position. That would give them a solo win AND pin a CR-2 and CR-6 loss on their pickoff opponents.

Conversely, if the Bears win, @Venez68 has even more ground to make up.

The rest of the pickoff's most important games:

• #2: Ravens at Niners. @Charlotteman1 took the Ravens while the other two are confident about the Niners.
• #3: Lions at Vikings. @Venez68 likes the slight home underdog in a divisional matchup.
• #4: Colts at Falcons. @Charlotteman1 is on the Colts in the battle of well-known backup QBs (Minshew vs. Heinecke).

Our 3 finalists changed their pickoff picks SEVEN times, collectively.

And this wasn't just switching around CRs. Each of them changed who they were picking in certain games.

You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie.

These three clearly have the boldness and conviction to make changes and live with the results. Commish loves to see it!

Flash forward: It's the year 2027. Joe Flacco is once again our top pick in the QB One-and-Done.

Flacco, who moved in the pocket like he was 50 years old when he was just 28, will actually be 39 in January.

On his fourth NFL team, and having gone half the year without a single team even bringing him in for a tryout, Flacco's career renaissance with the Browns made 317 of us load up on him in the QB One-and-Done.

Also of note: 96 of us took Nick Mullens, 80 took Justin Fields (who apparently isn't dead yet), and 6 of us took Mason Rudolph for funsies (but then it actually worked out).

THE ANNUAL MASON RUDOLPH GAME!!!

Survivor #3 probably ends today. But if it doesn't, we get our peak 5-pick week in Week 17.

Our six survivors are each making three picks. None of them have the same 3.

It's picks 13, 14, and 15 in the pool for these survivors. We escalate the pick total because we have to; the pool only starts in Week 9.

Commish is rooting for 2+ to survive, just for the fun of a max chaos, 5-pick survivor week.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@kbanaian (T. Siemian, QB One-and-Done): "In which the entire preseason plot of Hard Knocks is vindicated: majestic NFL Films music accompanies Zach Wilson wobblers against the WNAFT (Washington Not A Football Team)."
Commish says: Let's set aside the fact Zach Wilson isn't playing today (in his stead: the fearsome Trevor Siemian). Let's instead focus on the fact you made this pick at all, in a pool where the objective is to rack up passing yards. Are you just out here throwing darts at Moxie Awards, Banaian? Why am I giving this award to you? You don't deserve it. YOU TOTALLY DESERVE IT.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@tylerpearsontp (Weekly Pick'em): "If I win, I’ll remake the 'Mean Girls' Santa Baby Dance with da boys, sexy Santa outfits, and BLLs."
Commish says: As a SZN vet, you should be well-aware that comments published in an email become BLOOD OATH.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@MagicDreams (Weekly Pick'em): "Lotsa road wins this week in my picks. But not my Dolphins. Christmas Eve will be a hot one for the boys in Miami as the Fins treat the nation to the nostalgic memories of best throwback jerseys in the NFL. The classic aqua and orange with the original dolphin logo on the helmet."
Commish says: It's just fact. Any throwback jersey list that doesn't include the Dolphins and Creamsicle Bucs in the top 5 is an invalid list.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@LAhomer88 (Weekly Pick'em): "I only picked winners that are going to help my team get to the playoffs. I must admit, I thought the Rams would be competing for the #1 pick in the draft. Instead, they are actually fun to watch... at least on offense. Conversely, most other NFC wildcard contenders look to be getting worse every week. The Packers, Falcons, and Vikings are losing games they should not be losing. The Falcons might be the most objectionable under-achievement since Kim Kardashian decided to date Pete Davidson. This week I hope that trend continues for the Seahawks. They are high on the smell of victory after besting the Eagles, so I need them to take a Wile E. Coyote cliff dive and lose to the Titans."
Commish says: One of the most "homer" comments of all time, from @LAhomer88. "What's your pick'em strategy?" ... "Is that really a question? I pick the exact result that will most help the Rams make it to the playoffs. STRATEGY, BABY."

MORE COMMENTS

@jeremy (Weekly Pick'em): "Got too cocky last week, but not the kind of cocky where I thought the Panthers could win lol"
Commish says: The thing with Moxie is... it's required, but it's not easy to see where and how it's required. BUT IT'S STILL REQUIRED!

@wettengal (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "My pick choices are just... comical at this point. Even as a fairly active football follower, I have learned the names of like 12 new QBs I had never heard of this year... and they're all starting! Why do we do this to ourselves?"
Commish says: Yeah but just think about how good you're gonna be at sports bar trivia next year. There's gonna be a question that makes the rest of the bar patrons groan, with audible mumbling like "who the f*** would know the names of these QBs?". And then you're gonna stand up, take a swig of your beer, and be like "JAREN HALL, AIDAN O'CONNELL, CLAYTON TUNE, AND EASTON STICK, BABY!!!"

@mahatma19 (G. Smith, QB One-and-Done): "A really long time ago, Atari made a track-and-field game and one of the events was the javelin. I forget why, but my friend and I got on a kick where we were trying to throw the javelin and have it land as close to the starting line as possible...because it somehow became more fun than trying to see if you can throw those 9 pixels across the screen. Anyway, since I can't find guys that throw the ball for many yards (and I'm not gonna win), I'm just gonna see if I can find a guy to throw for less than 100 yards. #IMakeMyOwnCompetitions"
Commish says: Paging the NFL Playoffs. Paging the NFL Playoffs! WE'VE LOST THE PLOT.

@ekahn93 (Weekly Pick'em): "Why aren’t there multiple Santa’s for various Christmas wishes? Like the Greek Gods. There is one for arts, one for war, and another for wine. There should be a Santa for Xbox’s, one for gifts you don’t want but have to pretend to like, and a Santa for wine. Zeus is the leader, and so is The Santa for NFL wishes. NFL Santa will have Rob Ryan’s hair, Shahid Khan’s mustache, a Lovie Smith beard, and Andy Reids body. Andy wouldn’t even have to change, he’s been in big red Santa gear since 2013. Darren Sproles, Kyler Murray, Wes Welker, and Tarik Cohen can be the head elves. Tom Brady is Rudolph - unassuming and who was picked last in the reindeer games but puts the team on his back when they need him. You just know Ndamukong Suh was the one laughing and calling him names. And obviously Jerry Jones is the Grinch. "
Commish says: Kahn, I would have put this comment higher had you photoshopped me this Santa monstrosity. And by monstrosity I mean thing of absolute godlike beauty.

@suga1360 (J. Flacco): "What has come of my life? Picking Joe Flacco in 2023? If you would've told me that in October I would've thought you crazy!"
Commish says: FLACCO RISING (AGAIN)! Are we living in a computer simulation? DON'T ASK QUESTIONS JUST ENJOY THE RIDE!!

@DSchill (Weekly Pick'em): "Is Pitt banking on Rudolph's shiny nose to win this weekend? I don't think he'll be playing any reindeer games that will get them a W. Apparently, I need some Christmas magic to get me some credit card payment cash... c'mon Winter Warlock, help me out!"
Commish says: Do not throw shade on the Annual Mason Rudolph Game!! He was still the backup in Pittsburgh when Kordell Stewart was the starter, right?

@Shaggy1 (Falcons and Pats, All 32 One-and-Done): "Mile High upset Scooby said. We are waaaaayyy higher than a mile. Think about it, with the Universe in mind."
Commish says: Pretty sure Shaggy decorates his house with a different type of tree than most at this time of year...

@Jts5522 (Weekly Pick'em): "I like these picks, which may be a very good thing or a very bad thing. Now... Time to sprinkle a little money on them. ‘Scared money never makes money and gambled money never has a home.’ Something I learned a long time ago…"
Commish says: You forgot the third part. "SZN money is the best money ever spent on anything in the universe no questions asked don't @ me love you bye." NOW PUT IT ON A PLAQUE THAT HANGS IN YOUR KITCHEN!

@shaunlat (Packers and Bears, All 32 One-and-Done): "Why oh why am I still torturing myself???? Picking 2 teams is so hard."
Commish says: Because it's not torture, it's love and YOU KNOW IT.

@PCH (Bears and Broncos, All 32 One-and-Done): "Bears, Broncos, Battlestar Galactica"
Commish says: Bears, Broncos, Bills, Bengals, Browns, 'Boys ... wait, is this what the Matrix feels like?

@RedEd4 (Fields, QB One-and-Done): "Alright, time to put my faith in Fields... I probably should make sure I have plenty of alcohol this weekend LOL"
Commish says: SANTA, give this man some BLLs in his stocking!

Yours in football,
The Commish