Friends in football,
Let's give the Carolina Panthers a big warm welcome to the 2023 NFL SZN!
Sure, they're 2-13. Sure, their owner is a maniac. Sure, they're going to give the #1 overall pick in next year's draft to the Bears. Sure, they drafted the wrong QB last time.
But this week - THIS WEEK - they are the most important team in The SZN's NFL pools. The Carolina Panthers matter. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Not even Cam Newton's dad.
FUN PICK STATS
These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.
The Panthers are our top pick in the "All 32" One-and-Done AND were picked against by all three of our Survivor #3 finalists.
The Panthers are playing the Jags, who are sliding and without Trevor Lawrence. Carolina's offense also showed signs of life last week against Green Bay (though the Packers' D is nothing to fear).
The huge pick rate in All 32 is far more a necessity thing (you have to pick every team exactly once) than a vote of confidence, but if you squint, the Panthers look like a decent pick.
On the flip side, if you're one of our Survivor #3 combatants and thus facing FIVE picks this week... what choice do you have but to make the team playing the league's worst team one of those picks?
No matter what happens, THIS IS THE PANTHERS TIME TO SHINE (or, you know, combust).
We're still stuck on just two perfect weeks thus far in the Weekly Pick'em, which would tie the all-time low.
There are many indicators of how easy/hard an NFL SZN was to predict. Things like number of upsets, number of big upsets (7+ point underdogs), and percentage of the league at/near .500 all tell part of the story.
But "number of WeeWoo perfect weeks" is right up there.
Perfect weeks usually require MOST (if not all) of the expected outcomes to come true. The likelihood of someone picking 5 big upsets and having them all hit amid a perfect WeeWoo week is near-zero.
This year, we've seen five people go 16-0 in Week 4 and another give go 14-0 in Week 9. That's it.
Our overall pick winning percentage remains in the same zone it always is - 59.8% this year vs. 59.5% in 2022 and 60.6% in 2021 - but perfection has been a lot harder than normal.
Here's how our three survivors in Survivor #3 played the big 5-pick week.
- @Dbhughes16: Jags, Browns, Bills, Bears, Seahawks
- @rm030: Jags, Bucs, Broncos, Texans, Packers
- @Dbhughes16: Jags, Bears, Texans, Seahawks, Colts
They don't need to survive all 5 to be the champ. They just need to get more right than anybody else. (But, I mean, let's see someone survive!)
The big games to watch are the ones with only one picker on them. So, Colts (vs. Raiders), Bucs (vs. Saints), Broncos (vs. Chargers), Bills (vs. Pats), and Packers (at Vikings).
Our "All 32" One-and-Done leader (@mufc11) is on the Broncos and Giants today.
The reckoning has arrived - not just for @mufc11 but for nearly everyone at/near the top of the All 32 leaderboard.
The Giants are 6.5-point underdogs to the Rams.
Losses will happen. The only real question is whether we'll have a 30-2, 29-3, or 28-4 champ.
COMMENT AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!
@shaunlat (Cardinals and Titans, "All 32" One-and-Done): "This is impossible. I can't find a winner out of this trash!!"
Commish says: YOU DID THIS TO YOURSELF SHAUN ALSO COMMISH LOVES YOU NEVER FORGET THAT
Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)
@ekahn93 (Giants and Vikings, "All 32" One-and-Done): "If you were to tell me any time in the past 20 years that I would have left the Patriots as my last choice for this SZN pool, I probably would have said 'wtf is SZN?' But then I would have gasped and put my hand on my head, shouting 'oh heavens!' while fainting like a 1950s southern bell."
Commish says: THE KAHN FEVER DREAM HAS ARRIVED
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)
@Trentoff (Cardinals and Commanders, "All 32" One-and-Done): "With Green Bay, Buffalo, Washington & Arizona left, here I take 2 of the worst teams in the league against two of the top in the NFC, holding NE & GB for pride rivalry wins over NYJ & Chi at home next week. My biggest regret this season: Letting Austen Flint talk me out of picking both Pitt & NE in the same game, as that would've guaranteed me at least 1 win for the round (which I still managed to scratch anyway) at a time where certainty was the safe bet. Please keep this pool going next season & perhaps somehow in to the playoffs (with all teams resetting). Regardless, interesting to analyze how many points win the prizes, as next year may try the theory of picking two teams playing one another each week to guarantee myself 18 wins."
Commish says: Sooooo you’re saying Austen Flint could sell you Bengals tickets? (Be here all week.) Also, this is a fascinating wrinkle to the "All 32" format (we do All 30 in NBA, All 20 in EPL, etc.) - do you pick two teams playing each other to guarantee one win? I'd say "what do the odds say" but let's be real - we're the only ones out here doing this pool format. Because we're INNOVATORS.
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Wildest take
@hikee44 (Jets and Texans, "All 32" One-and-Done): "This is the first week that I can remember picking a team that I did not also pick in WeeWoo."
Commish says: Oooooh this is a GREAT stat for us to look up in the future. I'd bet it starts happening a lot in the final weeks.
MORE COMMENTS
@Jmkahn (Purdy, QB One-and-Done): "It's that time of year again. Replacing the golf clubs in my trunk for skis to take up space until April. You may call it lazy, I call it always being ready."
Commish says: Sure but how many 30 racks of BLL would fit? Have you asked yourself that, Kahn?
@Nazrat82 (Jags and Titans, "All 32" One-and-Done): "Picking from the teams left is like starting Mac Jones in my fantasy league (bring back Steve Grogan bet he can still pass better than any NE QB"
Commish says: Don't offend the All 32 format like this. It doesn't deserve Mac Jones comparisons. At least give us Jacoby Brissett or something.
@manonthemoov (Weekly Pick'em): "Am I Brock Purdy MVP talks or Brock Purdy last week…week 16 here we go!"
Commish says: YOU ARE MORE THAN A MOMENT. YOU ARE THE SUM OF EVERYTHING. YOU ARE BROCK PURDY.
@Ziqness (Giants and Texans, "All 32" One-and-Done): "*Jim Ross Voice* BY BLL GAWD WE'RE UP TO 2ND PLACE ON THE BACKS OF CAROLINA, GREEN BAY, DA BEARS, & EPIC LOSSES BY KC + DEN!!! WHAT IN GAWDs GREEN EARTH IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW?!?!?! JUST WHEN YOU THINK @Ziqness IS OUT OF MOXIE HE COMES BACK W/ ANOTHER 1-2 COMBINATION!! Riding Houston's RoY @ home. He lost to the #1 QB in the Draft so no way he can lose to the #3, right? DAYUM RIGHT! NOT MOXIE ENOUGH?? Then lets strap in with the Geeeee-MEN @ home. You have your proverbial West Coast team w/ an early start time on the East Coast + NY have looked their best with Tyrod at the helm. Rams have been too hot and Stafford is due for a stinker, right? DAYUM RIGHT! IMPROVISE. ADAPT. DRINK BLLs IN TO THE MFING SUNSET!!! "
Commish says: If you enter Week 18 within 1 win of the lead, can you please video yourself for the entirety of Sunday and then we turn it into a full length feature film? Yes? GREAT THX.
@Lootsdoolb (Weekly Pick'em): "At nearly 42 years of age, last week I signed up for 16-18 months of Invisalign to straighten the teeth/jaw that were allegedly fixed when I was 12-14 years old. “Fixed” I say at great financial cost to my loving parents and great social cost to me personally. And so now I must bow my head and humbly beg the Fantasy Gods to bless me ever-so-slightly with a clean sweep of pick ‘em picks. Just. This. One. Time. In return I offer them my eternal devotion and a roughly half-full party ball of BLL. Amen, and praise be to Jameis should he appear."
Commish says: I had four sets of braces. FOUR. Does that explain why I love ALL CAPS so much? Does that explain everything about me? BRACES MAKE THE MAN, LOOTS.
@YikesVikes (Mayfield, QB One-and-Done): "Baker makes his way past the saints. Love that bake knows what his mistakes are and does something about it, so now they've won 4 in a row, and make it 5 this week. You don't hear that from many QBs! Baker to the playoffs. "
Commish says: This is a great point and I do enjoy this about Baker. But it's interesting to ask whether this actually matters - the part about being forthcoming. I can't imagine Brady ever talked about screwing up at length or how he needed to get better at something. Right? Or did I miss the press conferences where Brady was... direct and introspective.
@joedad6452 (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "Couch potatoes support other couch potatoes."
Commish says: Fun stat courtesy of @StatCzar: Entering Thursday's game, Joe Flacco was just 72 yards away from passing Johnny Manziel for 31st all-time on the Browns passing list. Flacco got there.
@suga1360 (Mayfield, QB One-and-Done): "What has my become of my life picking Baker?!?"
Commish says: You have a good life. A noble life. A Moxilicious life.
@dgsaites (Bears and Giants, "All 32" One-and-Done): "Haiku:
Ugh I picked the bears
And Tommy devito man
LETS F***ING GO PACK "
Commish says: LFG PACK!!!
@Schreindogg (Cowboys and Chiefs, "All 32" One-and-Done): "gonna be REAL sad if I saved the Chiefs & Cowboys for a late season collapse "
Commish says: Did you also ref last night's game?
@LAhomer88 (Weekly Pick'em): "I'm 40 years old man, so New Year's Eve doesn't have the same luster as it did when I was in my 20s. But this year my wife, brother and sister-in-law want to be awake, dressed-up and drinking in public when the ball drops at midnight. Normally, I would need to take an afternoon siesta to even consider this, but I can't take naps on a NFL Sunday. I may have taken a quick cat nap during the Sunday night game (Pacific time zone is the best), but the result actually affects my team...I can't overlook that. This weekend will challenge my physical resilience and mental toughness. I may need to have multiple Red Bull vodkas to stay upright. Maybe I'll carry a 5-hr Energy in my sock for an emergency. I will likely be crawling to the finish line like an under-prepared marathon runner who thought it would be fun to give it a shot. Wish me luck. "
Commish says: IF BIG GAME TORRY HOLT CAN DO IT, SO CAN YOU
@RedEd4 (Rams and Vikings, "All 32" One-and-Done): "How did I end up with these four teams left!? "
Commish says: YOU TELL ME, ED
@Saintfan4lyf (Hurts, QB One-and-Done): "I assure all of you I am in last place in this game. Never missed a pick, only picked starters, have just been jinxed. So Hurts your done for. "
Commish says: *Checks standings* ... oh shit, yeah, you're even 2 places behind someone named @katbutt
@kbanaian (Weekly Pick'em): "My NYE gathering is with Vikings and Packers fans and SNF. I expect both to be unhappy that the Rams and Seachickens have won earlier in the day, which pretty much makes this loser-goes-home. A tie would be awesome, but more likely one team gets its hopes up for one more week only to be crushed by a late afternoon game on the West Coast. As they are closer to me, I’m hoping that’s the Vikes. One more week of faint hope before being crushed is all I have left to live for, now that they’ve benched Tommy DeVito in NY. Sincerely, Giants Social Media Guy."
Commish says: Please ask the Vikings fans how they are doing after the Packers win by 17 and report back. Thx.
@WayneB (Weekly Pick'em): "KC may win this week but a Super Bowl is not in the cards for them. Not this year, not for a long time. The Boston Red Sox had a 86 year drought because of the Curse of the Bambino. Sorry Chiefs fans, the Curse of TS will set this team back for a long time."
Commish says: So is what you're saying @WayneB that Swifty haters like you are gonna hate, hate, hate; while KC is just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake it off? DID I GET IT RIGHT AND ARE YOU DANCING
@Mcheavens13 (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "Flacco revenge tour continues."
Commish says: BUT IS FLACCO ELITE
@InDaGameQB69 (Weekly Pick'em): "Happy holidays, you bastards!"
Commish says: WHAT HE SAID BUT NICER
Yours in football,
The Commish