Friends in football,
It's time to crown ourselves some damn champions.
QB One-and-Done. Weekly Pick'em overall race. "All 32" One-and-Done. Survivor #3.
Commish trusts those of you with a shot at glory in these pools are sitting cross-legged somewhere, lights dimmed to a serene shade of orange and black (Ochocinco colors), donning 3x oversized Wilfork overalls, surrounded by a circle of empty Bud Light Lime cans, whispering offerings to the Survivor Gods.
For those of us out of contention, we know there's immense pride in finishing strong, and once Sunday Night Football wraps, WE ALL HAVE FRESH LIFE in the form of the Playoffs Pick'em.
FUN PICK STATS
These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.
In the QB One-and-Done, @ShantheWOMAN has a 37-yard lead over @RM5589... but took Lamar, who put up just 146 yesterday.
That opens the door WIDE for some drama today.
2nd place @RM5589 is on Jalen Hurts. Lurking not much further behind, @jasonpengel (144 behind Shan) is on red hot Jordan Love, and @Trace5182 (169 behind) is on Baker.
Any one of those four could win!
All the "All 32" One-and-Done, our two leaders have the same two picks.
@mufc11 and @Venez68 are both 27-3, and they both have to live with... the Cards and Pats today.
It's not THAT far-fetched to see the Cards (vs. SEA) and Pats (vs. NYJ) both winning, but implied win probabilities say the likeliest scenario is at least one of them loses.
That would open the door for the 10 folks at 26-4 to get at least a share of the lead.
You can look at their picks yourselves, but a few that stand out:
- @bobbynguyen516 has Vikings-Bucs
- @Gofforbust has Texans-Pats (and Houston already won)
- @jtpaulsen34 has Cowboys-Giants (saving 'Dem 'Boys!)
If we're tied atop the standings? The official rules always give us the answer. In this case, the Championship Tiebreaker reads: Using the final 2024 NFL Draft order (set after Week 18 concludes), we use wins from picks on the team drafting #1 to break the tie. (Most wins on that team is the champ.) If still tied, we move to the team drafting #2, and so on, until the tie is broken.
In the Weekly Pick'em, @Sevdog55 and @jac211 are both two clear of the field.
Pick'em standings can DEFINITELY shift more than 2 wins in any given week. But let's look at our leaders' selections.
In a very juicy twist, they differ on ONE game, meaning they are guaranteed to separate.
That game? Packers-Bears. Commish has WORDS for our Bears picker, @Sevdog55. I will keep those words to myself.
And the crew of four people who are 2 wins back of the lead? They got WILD. So, if upsets happen, buckle up...
In our HUSTLE Bonus Week 2 Wins Battle, one fearless soul is currently at 16-0.
That's right. Heading into Week 2, @daverog stared at 16 matchups of teams Vegas said would finish with roughly the same record. And Dave picked the team that, through Week 17, had the better record ALL 16 TIMES.
Can Dave finish an absolutely absurd feat today?
The results that could flip are Vikings-Falcons (both on 7 wins, with the Vikings having a superior point differential by just 13), and Giants-Pats (Giants are 1 win ahead, but the Pats have a much better point differential and would win the matchup if they both end with 5 wins).
COMMENT AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!
@MamsTooHot (Jets and Pats, "All 32" One-and-Done): "The picks of my past self have now left me with the choices of the Jets and Patriots in the last week… in a week they play each other. Was this the key to winning all along?? Did I crack the code @TheCommish, and I just won it all?! Somehow this feels like it means something… "
Commish says: HEAR ME OUT: Is this a legit strategy in the "All 32" One-and-Done format? You have two bad teams. You very well might pick up two Ls when picking those teams. But if you pick them both when they play each other... you're guaranteed a 1-1 result. How many people in this pool went 2-0 on their Pats and Jets picks? MAKES YOU THINK, RIGHT?!
Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)
@Ziqness (Eagles and Pats, "All 32" One-and-Done): "'As he plunged back to the earth, then and only then did Ziqness realize he flew too close to the Moxie Sun'
- Inventor of Bud Light Lime
I never knew anything could be more deflating the Tom Brady's balls but leave it to the Giants end-of-game execution last week. But instead of unpacking that massive shit sandwich, we're gonna pound a 6 pack of BLL and go full Killers (I'm Mr. Brightside!). WE'RE STILL ONLY 1 GAME BACK and there's football left to be played. Belichick's last hurrah at home against his hated rival starting a third string QB? NE's defense will be putting up the points in this slugfest & bring me one step closer to glory! I waited all year to unleash Philly, but they're looking the worst they've been all year. Only thing going for 'em? Playing the vaunted GEEEE-MEN! Do the Giants play spoiler or go for the higher draft pick??? I'm asking because I have no freakin idea! Closing my eyes and drinkin BLLs till I feel the "All 32" title belt wrapped around me, Ziqness Out!"
Commish says: The play-by-play on your run toward the inaugural "All 32" One-and-Done title has been nothing short of Oscar-worthy. When we grow our podcast empire, you'll be one of our first calls. And, good sir, I am happy to tell you that you're the ONLY person among our 12 leaders at 27-3 or 26-4 who saved the Eagles. So, say what you will about Philly's chances today, you DEFINITELY want to be someone with a unique pick in this situation. GOOD LUCK TO YOU and please film the result if it's looking like you might be our champ.
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)
@rstpaul (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "It was down to Joe or Lamar. How I held onto Lamar literally all season until week 18 when he probably won't play much is a testament to how bad I've been at picking this year. C'mon Joe, throw us one."
Commish says: Truth be told, this might have been the most brutal picking year in history for a QB One-and-Done. We picked 60 different QBs in this pool. SIXTY.
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Wildest take
@judigregry (Weekly Pick'em): "My son @iamgregory1299 played Pop Warner with Bryce Young. That kid has always been a superstar even when he was only 3 feet tall. This week we need that superhero arm to show up and kick some TB butt. What are the odds that both Carolina and Saints will win? Commish, give me something ridiculous from your bag of stats!"
Commish says: Likelihood that the Panthers and Saints will win: Low. Likelihood that @judigregry will samba down her local streets to Carly Rae Jepsen till 2am if they do: High. Likelihood that @judigregry has some connection to the Bryce Young family and should GET THEM IN THE POOL: SO VERY HIGH!!!
MORE COMMENTS
@jrcondon (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "Only need to make up 1,085 yards to take this thing... go have a game, Mr. Flacco."
Commish says: If anyone can do it, it's the single most elite QB of all-time. I put your odds at 50-50.
@Rhino33 (Flacco, QB One-and-Done): "I only need Joe Flacco to throw for 1,000 yards and I should move into the top 5"
Commish says: SCRATCH THAT. 90% LIKELIHOOD.
@Keiffapro (Geno, QB One-and-Done): "Geno Smith recaptures his West Virginia electric offensive glory and throws for 600 yards again, putting me in the money for QB one and done!"
Commish says: This was a... trend. I'd imagine some of you have more faith than others in your Week 18 savior. Relatedly, GENO FOR 600, BABY.
@Hefs_Pick (Baker, QB One-and-Done): "Come on Baker! Just need you to throw for 300... a quarter"
Commish says: TODAY'S LESSON IS "DIMINISHING RETURNS"
@LAhomer88 (Weekly Pick'em): "Last week of the regular season means some teams are desperate, some teams, are playing for pride, and some are putting their high-value assets in street clothes for an extra week of rest. Good for them, super difficult to make picks based on these choices…as if picking winners wasn’t hard enough. Fortunately, the Rams may get a soft W against a Niners team playing their B-squad. They haven’t beaten SF in the regular season since the Reagan administration so I will take it. It also may lead to a really enticing matchup between the Rams/Stafford and the Lions/Goff. I can’t wait for the love/hate headlines between those teams. One more week!"
Commish says: We could have Lions vs. Stafford and Packers vs. Mike McCarthy in the Wildcard Round. If the NFL isn't "soap operas for the rest of us", then I don't know what is.
@dgsaites (Lamar, QB One-and-Done): "Haiku:
'Sunday is the day
The pack will go bear hunting
LETS F***ING GO PACK'
PLAYOFFS BABY "
Commish says: I was hoping this would be the week where the haiku was "LFG PACK / LFG PACK PLAYOFFS / LFG PACK". Alas, maybe that will be next week?
@gmowat43 (Weekly Pick'em): "Nothin' like winning on the last week of the season to stick it to all of you!! Just kidding, I’m terrible at this. But it’s been fun! I hope I’ve contributed to someone’s college fund and they go on to invent a Time Machine. Like in Back To The Future, and they find me a sports almanac. Then, maybe I can win some sports bets!"
Commish says: Can you ask them to send me the latest Bud Light Lime deck chair model while they're at it?
@ekahn93 (Pats and Falcons, "All 32" One-and-Done): "I heard that Odell Beckham is renting a boat to take his teammates on during their bye week. Is it possible that Odell is a patsy for the Mara family and still on the Giants payroll? Maybe it's payback for the 2001 Super Bowl loss to the Ravens? Technically, the Odell boat curse has a higher success rate the the Madden curse. I'm just connecting some dots here. Someone should look into this."
Commish says: The Eagles called and they would like you to FOCUS ON YOUR OWN TEAM, KAHN. Maybe YOU should take them out on a boat. Is there a Kahn Boat curse? No? WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR
@YikesVikes (Geno, QB One-and-Done): "Smith has taken a step back this season, and while not performing poorly, necessarily, his performance has at times caused a few head scratches. But at this point in the season he's one of the only QBs I have left."
Commish says: IF HE WAS STILL THROWING TO STEVE SLATON HE'D BE MVP.
@jessempatch (Pats and Jets, "All 32" One-and-Done): "Well... I didn't game this out correctly. My last two teams, the Jets and the Patriots, play each other in Week 18."
Commish says: BUT WHAT IF IT'S A LEGIT STRATEGY?
@Irishkelly22 (Weekly Pick'em): "1 time Buffalo Show up and step on their throats!!! It’s time!! Go Bills Allen for 300+ and 3 TD’s 1 Rushing Division Champs"
Commish says: That... escalated quickly. Zero to "out of hand" faster than a Stefon Diggs trade request. I'M SORRY. TOO SOON.
@Schreindogg (Panthers and Giants, "All 32" One-and-Done): "I thought I was going to do well in this competition. I thought wrong."
Commish says: COMMISH STILL LOVES YOU
@Mcheavens13 (Browning, QB One-and-Done): "Browning. Fun name to rhyme with Clowning, Crowning, Drowning, Downing, Frowning... what'd I miss?"
Commish says: INTENTIONAL GROUNDING THANK YOU BE HERE ALL WEEK GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY.
Yours in football,
The Commish