Friends in Bowling,
IT'S ON.
A whopping 91.3% of us went "YES" on Prop 11 (will the telecast show Harbaugh visibly pissed/frustrated?).
Meanwhile, Michigan got just 56% of our picks in Prop #1 (who will win?), which means we rate this game tighter than Vegas (which made the Wolverines 5.5-pt favorites).
We're not sure who will win, but we're pretty sure JIMBO GONNA GET MAD.
We're scoring this thing in real time.
STATS & ANALYSIS
COMPETITIVE: 74% of us believe it'll be a one-score game. Similarly, 62% of us believe there will be a 4th quarter lead change.
POINTS & YARDS: We liked the high end of most related props. 27% said 60+ points (vs. 21% saying 50 or fewer). 44% said Penix will get 300+ passing yards (vs. just 13% at 250 or fewer). 49% said Corum will get 2+ TDs (vs. just 0.6% at 0 TDs).
CLEAN: Nearly half of us think there will be 3 or fewer turnovers (INTs + fumbles). Only 1.4% said 6+, which honestly is pretty good value at that tiny take rate.
NO FAMILY LOVE?! "Team/coaches" and "God" dominated our "who will the offensive MVP mention first?" prop. Just 3% said "family/friends" and even fewer said "fans/crowd". Again, great value on those smaller picks!
4TH DOWN FEST: We're seeing a lot of offense and aggression, as a massive 86% said 2+ 4th down conversions will occur.
50/50 PROPS: We're a dead heat on "Will a player other than the two starting QBs attempt a pass?" (yes/no). We're close on the winner (56/44 Michigan). Given almost nobody said "6+", we're also a dead heat on "0-3 INT/FUM" vs. "4-5 INT/FUM". Ditto Blake Corum TDs, with ~no one saying 0 and even splits on "1" vs. "2+". To win the pool, you probably need to get 3 or 4 of these dead heat props correct!
WHITHER GATORADE? We have no idea on this one! Yellow, orange, blue, and purple ALL got at least 14% of our picks. 5% of us think the telecast will royally screw up by not showing us the bath.
COMMENT AWARDS
Dot the "i" in Moxie Award
You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!
@Deacon: "I learned my lesson in the NFL Thanksgiving Props pool. None of this moderation stuff - expect maximum mayhem!"
Commish says: A STUDENT OF HISTORY. A MAESTRO OF MOXIE.
Play Like a Champion Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)
@Mcheavens13: "Orange Gatorade bath for the Washington coach is going to be one of the most disrespectful moves any Longhorn fan has witnessed in recent memory."
Commish says: This would be up there in troll potential with LeBron getting off the plane in an Ultimate Warrior T-Shirt after the 2016 Cavs win.
Lennay Kekua Memorial Award
Most convincing comment.
@AdamAnt: "I've made more bad decisions at 3 in the morning than I can list. I made these picks at 3 in the afternoon."
Commish says: But when does the Moxie flow, Adam? YOU KNOW WHEN.
The "I'm a Man, I'm 40!" Award
Spiciest take
@StatCzar: "I'm going to avoid making a true Ted Bowl (think about it) prediction and give these hot takes. Harbaugh will be the next Chargers head coach and Nick Saban retires this offseason because he hates NIL and transfer portal college football."
Commish says: Why didn't you go one step further and predict Nick Saban as the next head coach of the New England Patriots? I'm not even gonna entertain your Ted Bowl reference. THIS IS A FAMILY SPACE, STAT CZAR.
MORE COMMENTS
@Rednmeth: "Legit guessed here, but I've been awful all season long so why not try a dart throw..."
Commish says: Ladies and gentlemen, your next member of the College Football Playoff Committee!!
@InSpainAsylum: "Mich 26 wash 17 under hits"
Commish says: When that's the score at half you have to change your name to @InPainAsylum!!!!!
@Moondogs: "I LOVE all of my National Championship Props picks very much, but I am keeping them secret for now. I want to tell you! But I can’t. Please be patient, you will see them soon."
Commish says: MOONDOGS HAS THAT DOG IN HIM. ALSO MAYBE SOME MOONBOOTS? DEFINITELY THAT DOG, THOUGH.
@BklynKevin: "Feels good to be 100% correct, until kickoff. Where's the 'Will the refs make a controversial call?' question?"
Commish says: We aim to produce props that won't go 100% "yes", Sir Kevin from Brooklyn.
@theSleeper: "#11 Will the telecast show Jim Harbaugh being visibly upset/frustrated? Lol."
Commish says: ... but sometimes we produce props that go 91% yes. OOPS.
@cohibaBP: "Michigan is home to fast cars and fast players, speeding by the slow heavy Huskies!"
Commish says: This was country song material until "slow heavy Huskies". Do we think Rascal Flatts can handle that one?
@nickmo0001: "Start the conversation: Penix top QB in this draft class. Marvin Harrison, Jr. + Penix = Super Bears, Super Bowl"
Commish says: PENIX/FIELDS WILDCAT. WHO SAYS NO?!
@Shaggy1: "Subject to change before 1/7/2024"
Commish says: I would just like to applaud you for correctly writing "2024" - something the rest of us have gotten correct roughly 2% of the time thus far. Though rumor has it FSU fans have gotten it 100% of the time. (SORRY, 'NOLES NATION. COMMISH LOVES YOU.)
Yours in baggy khakis and visors,
The Commish