Friends in football,

Nothing smells better than fresh life on a cold January Saturday, right?

Even by the NFL's usual high standard, the Wildcard slate has serious juice:

• Goff vs. Stafford in the ultimate "look at me now" game
• Packers vs. McCarthy in the "Rodgers should have 4 Super Bowls" game
• Flacco vs. Stroud, who wasn't even born when we started questioning Flacco's eliteness
• Chiefs vs. Dolphins in the "how long 'till Taylor has an Ice Bowl lyric?" game

Y'all brought it with your comments this week. Scroll on for those gems, and good luck out there.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

The picking differences between our main Pick'em and the 100 Tier Pick'em are fascinating.

We've got 9,000+ people in the main pick'em and 400 people in the 100 Tier pick'em (our new tier of $100 pools).

There are two distinct differences in how these pools picked the Wildcard Round:

• 100 Tier is heavier on big favorites: 96% on the Bills (vs. 94% in main Pick'em), 93% on the Cowboys (vs. 86%), and 80% on the Chiefs (vs. 71%).
• 100 Tier is also heavier on the small underdogs: 41% on the Bucs (vs. 36%), and 43% on the Rams (vs. 40%).

What does this say? Well, for one, Commish LOVES the Moxie we're showing in the main Pick'em. (Repeat after me: You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!)

It also says that our 100 Tier folks DO believe in picking upsets - it's not chalk city over there - but they concentrate those picks on the "upsets" that are more likely to happen.

If you're a 100 Tier picker who gets a win on the Steelers (4%) or Packers (7%), you have to LOVE your odds going forward.

16% of us went straight chalk with our picks.

That pickline: BUF CLE DAL DET KC PHI.

While it's highly unlikely that all six favorites will win (in this week or any week), being among that 16% isn't a bad position to be in. 16% isn't THAT large of a chalk logjam.

(You know how Commish FEELS about your lack of Moxie. But as a student of statistics, the numbers are the numbers.)

On the flip side, just TWO of us had the pickline DET GB HOU MIA PHI PIT - the least picked set of six teams.

(Yes, the "all 'dogs" pickline got more picks! 3, to be exact.)

Not until our 23rd most picked set of teams do you find a set with Pittsburgh over Buffalo.

But, interestingly, that set (picked by 54 of us) doesn't feature ANY upsets beyond what would be the biggest upset of the Wildcard Round (Steelers over Bills).

Steelers fans? Stats professors who realize that Pittsburgh's implied win probability is a LOT higher than its 6% pick rate? STEELER STATS SAVANTS?!

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@kenziehaygood (Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Packers, Rams, Buccaneers): "Going safe got me nowhere this season. So gosh darn it, give me all the upsets we can handle. Bring on the underdogs!"
Commish says: Kenzie. This. THIS is how you become a gosh darn legend. Sounds like the regular season didn't pay dividends for you. The playoff games haven't even started and this Moxie award already turns your entire 2023-24 NFL SZN into a massive success. Ladies and Gentlemen: KENZIE, NOW WITH MOXIE.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@b_b_b_booker (Texans, Chiefs, Steelers, Packers, Lions, Eagles): "I admit it. I stole my picks from Katt Williams."
Commish says: Katt Williams also invented Moxie, this pool, The SZN, the Dallas Cowboys, and the chip on Aaron Rodgers' shoulder.

@DumbLuck (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers): "My wild prediction - Browns are heading to the Super Bowl. Backed by the best defense in the NFL, Joe f***ing Flacco puts to rest the "is he elite?" argument while punching his ticket to the Hall of Fame. DeShaun Watson admits to his crimes, retires from football and agrees to donate his remaining guaranteed salary to victims of sexual abuse. And the Browns go back to being perpetually bad immediately next season! Book it."
Commish says: I wasn't ready for the "Flacco to the Hall of Fame" comment. I WASN'T READY YET.

@LAhomer88 (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Buccaneers): "Why do they allow NFL football games to be played in sub-zero temperatures?! The game in KC on Saturday night will be below zero... that is obscene! These types of games may look good on camera, but they are ridiculous to play in real life. When it is that cold outside, moving around with less than 10 layers of clothing is torture akin to forcing down a warm Bud Light Lime while sun-bathing nude in Death Valley. And doing that while forcibly hitting another very large human running full speed?? No, thanks. The players should earn an extra allowance for being forced into this sadistic exercise. The NFL should have default locations (San Diego??) where these games can move to instead of playing inside a defacto meat locker. I'd be surprised if Tua doesn't spontaneously go into cryo-sleep on the sideline. Furthermore, it seems like franchises are putting themselves in a position of gross negligence letting drunk, stupid fans into an open-air venue where they could do something stupid like lick a pole or take their shirts off and sue for serious bodily harm. If anything, the lawyers should disallow this. I would think it is way more likely that people would do something stupid in arctic temps than get struck by lightning during a storm and they stop games for that. Maybe I feel this way because I was raised in Los Angeles, but I still stand by my argument. "
Commish says: "Tell us you're from LA without making your username @LAhomer".

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@DaDarkKiller (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles): "LAR vs DET — We all know the #1 BFIG survivor stat that took me to Week 15, bet against the Lions when they are outside and bet for them when they are home. It’s almost like these guys never played football in the front yard. Guess Drippy Goff bout to cop sum more (ain’t as drippy as Big Kirko tho)."
Commish says: Your comment ran through all the games, but I trimmed it to just your Lions-Rams take. Because, we needed to highlight the immortal line "Guess Drippy Goff bout to cop some more (ain't as drippy as Big Kirko tho)." WE ARE NOT WORTHY.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Gio (Browns, Dolphins, Steelers, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers): "I promise, once the Steelers lose I'll pick all the games based on actual predicted outcome. Unfortunately it's Steelers all the way bay-bbbbyyyyy!!! When the steelers win it all I'll get a steelers tattoo, and for a case of BLL I'll add a SZN logo to it. For a BFIG version of the Golden Gun from @TheCommish, I'll let the him pick the body part..."
Commish says: I'M NOT READY FOR THIS RESPONSIBILITY. I AM SO READY FOR THIS RESPONSIBILITY. STEELERS TO THE 'SHIP!!!

MORE COMMENTS

@Brandiculous1 (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles): "If you would have told me in 2020 that I would choose the Cowboys, Browns and Lions to win playoff games, I would have expressed some expletives about your mother and asked you to apologize to me. But look where we are now."
Commish says: My mother picked all three. SHE KNEW.

@Sixers6thMan (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Rams, Eagles): "After losing to some of the worst teams in the league... Eagles go on a run! "
Commish says: SixersMan, was all that terrible losing just part of the Eagles'... PROCESS? (Thank you. Thank you. I'll be here all week.)

@cegriffi (Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles): "I just keep staring at these games believing any team can win. And there’s a real possibility I picked every one of them wrong. Even assuming true 50/50 p(wins), an 0/6 showing would be impressive. Only ~1.5625% chance of that happening. Here’s to hoping something unique happens - it is playoff football with elite Flacco driving a team, after all!"
Commish says: When Flacco is elite, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. (I just want to see KG and Flacco do a commercial together.)

@DSchill (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers): "WAIT!! I've been crying poor on my pick ability all season. I got a magic email from The GM indicating I cashed a whopping $7.64 in WeeWoo!!! With my loyalty points at my local liquor store, I believe this will get me a 30-pack of BLL!! I'm officially a guru and am on a roll to take down the big prize in the HasselBracket! "
Commish says: SOMEBODY STOP THIS MAN (YOU CAN'T STOP THIS MAN)!!

@rnorwood (100 TIER: Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Eagles): "In Italy there is a saying, "Essere pane per i tuoi denti." Loosely it means bread for your teeth, speaking to a worthy challenge. My previous knowledge of Italian included the phrase, "Mangiare la porta" or "eat the door." I'm not certain where I'm going with this other than to say that in playoff pick-'em my standard operating procedure is to eat the door. I'd probably better enjoy setting my money on fire for a moment's warmth but there's still a chance, right?"
Commish says: Norwood, when you win the 100 Tier Pick'em, should your "EAT THE DOOR" SZN-branded t-shirt be two or three sizes too big? Should we design matching pants?

@Jmkahn (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles): "They've started rearranging things in the grocery store I always go to. For example, the household cleaner isle is now where the chips were, and the cereal section is now the condiment section. It's so mixed up I had to ask someone where the coffee is. He said "the coffee has been upgraded to a new section, it's bigger and better than ever before." So I go to the new aisle, and everything is exactly the same, exact same order, just in a new section. Anyway, I say all of this to say, that's how the Cowboys make me feel."
Commish says: The bigger and better coffee section, aka The First Ever Playoff Game on Peacock!!

@BigDaddy (Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Packers, Lions, Buccaneers): "Any of The SZN faithful going 6-0 this weekend should be worthy of a Trophy — perhaps the Blizzard Banner, the Cold Cup or the Burr Belly Bong! Go Texans, Go Fish, Go Lions, Go Pack Go!!"
Commish says: The Burr Belly Bong is your finest invention since Case BEERKEGNUM, Dad.

@ekahn93 (Texans, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Eagles): "I have heard that the Eagles have purposely played easy since they clinched a playoff spot, which happened BEFORE they played the Seahawks in week 15. According to my sources, mostly Reddit and a YouTube video with 1k views, the Eagles have been planning for the playoffs since that point. And all games after that were played easy so they did not show what they are really capable of. How else do you explain beating playoff teams like Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs and then losing to Kyler Murray? It's called strategy. It takes a big man to admit their team just isn't that good and will lose in the playoffs. But I never claimed to be a man. Eagles beat the Bucs by 4 TDs. We'll see you in Dallas"
Commish says: "But I never claimed to be a man". When we start making custom SZN t-shirts, I know what's going on yours, Kahn.

@Ziqness (100 TIER: Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Lions, Buccaneers): "Shitty Eagles cost me the 'All 32' One-and-Done title (yes I went through all the tiebreaker scenarios and would've beat out the 8 people tied at 27 wins). I will not rest until those dirty bird bastard's season are deader like my title hopes AAAARRRAAARAAAAGE! On a more positive note, who doesn't like watching the cowboys choke one out to the Packers. It happens every 4 years like a leap year"
Commish says: You're telling me we were THAT close to the requested documentary, "32 PICKS. 27 WINS. 18 COMMENTS. 400 BUD LIGHT LIMES. THAT'S NOT HOW DESCENDING NUMBERS WORK BUT ZIQUNESS-THE-CHAMP DOESN'T CARE"?!?

@Lootsdoolb (Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Packers, Lions, Eagles): "God I hate the Packers being in playoffs again! And I hate them getting the easy draw with McCarthy’s fraudulent, yet wildly overconfident Cowboys… I’m rooting for a big Flacco day; Browns v. Lions is a dream Super Bowl matchup (mostly cuz it’ll never happen)."
Commish says: How much panic do you think would exist inside NFL HQ if the Browns and the Lions are both in their respective Championship games? I want it.

@TTutko22 (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Eagles): "Will the Eagles ever win another game? Will Jalen Hurts be the QB? Can he even give us the middle finger right now? This downfall couldn’t happen to a nicer group of fans."
Commish says: Fanbase voted most likely to tell you the awful losing streak was "part of the plan, asshole"? DO I EVEN NEED TO SAY IT

@AC0606 (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Rams, Eagles): "Way back in the 14th week the Packers were on a three-win streak. I said it then; I'll say it again: The Lombardi the Packers will seek."
Commish says: ARE WE BEST FRIENDS?

@Lambda_derg (Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles): "I keep going back and forth on whether the NFL playoff seeding system as a mathematical object has any inherent elegance in and of itself. "
Commish says: I'll have what he's having, please.

@envelopeman1 (100 TIER: Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers): "I’m taking the Bucs at home! The over under should be about 6, lol"
Commish says: WE HAVE A BUCS 4-2 OVER EAGLES PREDICTION.

@YesThereIsAnS (Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Buccaneers): "Eagles went from WOAH to wJOKE. (pl don’t throw any batteries at me, I’m a father!)"
Commish says: This is the worst comment we've ever published on The SZN. I hope you're proud of yourself.

@jsol11 (Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Buccaneers): "RAM it up your ass, Lions fans!"
Commish says: WHY ARE WE ESCALATING SO QUICKLY

@dgsaites (Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Packers, Lions, Eagles): "HAIKU:
We are in the show
America's team my ass
LETS F***ING GO PACK”"
Commish says: LFG Haiku in the Divisional Round? LFG HAIKU IN THE DIVISIONAL ROUND!!!

@Deshonn (Texans, Chiefs, Steelers, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers): "CJ Stroud against old Flacco to kick off playoff weekend… does it get better? My bold take for the last 6 months: CJ Stroud may be the best quarterback in history when he’s done. I’m crazy, I know."
Commish says: LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THE GM'S BURNER ACCOUNT HAS BEEN REVEALED!

 

Yours in football,
The Commish