Friends in fore,

It's like clockwork.

Early-SZN golf picking. So much uncertainty. Who's in form? Who cares enough (yet) to put together 4 great rounds?

And when we're facing such uncertainty, what do we do?

WE FLOCK TO IM.

Last year, Sungjae was our 3rd biggest pick in this event. Then he was our 4th biggest next week and our top pick in Week 6.

Is he gonna win? History says that's unlikely. Will he finish top 20? He often does. And will he make the cut? THAT'S something we're willing to bet our survivor lives on.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

Sungjae's 18% OAD pick rate is our highest ever in Week 1.

When EVERY golfer is available, we of course see a more spread out picking distribution.

In 2022 - our first year doing Golf pools - Mr. Goldman Sachs (Patrick Cantlay) got just 11.8% of picks but was still our top pick.

Sungjae was #2 in 2022 (11%), #3 in 2023 (8%), and now #1 in 2024 (18%).

We like Eric Cole for OAD but not as much for Survivor.

Commish loves this comparison, and we'll see notable differences here in almost every week.

Cole is #3 in OAD but just #6 in Survivor - getting 30% fewer picks in the latter.

The basic read is that we think a guy has potential to finish top 5 (or even win), but also think it's possible he'll miss the cut.

Put another way, a "boom or bust" candidate.

Cole has been steadily rising since last year. But he's still not a household name. We like his form, but we're not yet ready to trust him fully with our first survivor pick of the year.

Our Top 10s pool shows who we're REALLY confident in.

In this pool, there are no Survivor/OAD rules - so, no elimination and you can pick guys as many times as you want.

Thus, our picking reflects who we MOST feel will finish top 10, with one key strategy twist: The top 15 guys in the field by World Rank are worth 2 points per correct pick, and all other guys are worth 3 points.

The top of our board looks like this (you make 2 picks per week):

• 1/ Scheff (2 points): 34% of us picked him
• 2/ Cantlay (2): 28%
• 3/ Sungjae (2): 22%
• 4/ Xander (2): 16%
• 5/ Poston (2): 10%
  ...
• 9/ Si Woo (3): 8%
• 10/ Montgomery (3): 8%

So our top EIGHT picks were all guys within the top 15 by World Rank. Si Woo Kim and Taylor Montgomery were tied with the most picks on a 3-point golfer.

Will be fascinating to see how this dynamic plays out as our leaderboard shapes up and we see which types of picks are paying the most dividends.

There's some solid early value in our skin picks.

The $1,000 skins pot is divided at the end of the year among all skin winners.

• Full skin: Being the ONLY person to pick that week's winner.
• Half skin: Being one of 2 people on the winner.

Here are our Week 1 YEYPO skin picks:

• Full skin opportunities: Alexander Björk, Alex Smalley, Ben Kohles, Charley Hoffman, Daniel Berger, J.B. Holmes, Matthieu Pavon, Norman Xiong, Ryan Moore, Ryan Palmer, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Ryder, Stephan Jaeger, Zach Johnson
• Half skin oppos: Aaron Rai, Adam Schenk, Beau Hossler, Matt Kuchar

You see what Commish sees? Round 1 leader Zach Johnson as a skin opportunity for @huskerpower39.

Schenk (half skin) was playing GREAT at the end of last year, and Kuchar can rise up on any given week. Strong skin value out of the gates!

Our 100 Tier pickers love them some J.T. Poston

Poston is tied with Sungjae atop the 100 Tier pick board, with both getting 18% of picks.

That was the only major difference between our main OAD and 100 Tier OAD. Commish does NOT expect that to be the case every week. I expect some juicy differences as the SZN goes on.

COMMENT AWARDS

The 1-iron Moxie Award

Boldest pick (with a comment). You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@limetime (Akshay Bhatia, OAD): "No Tiger, no problem. Until the Genesis. For now, we roll with Akshay Bhatia, who, despite hitting it a mile looks like at any moment he might blow away with a thick gust. Thankfully he survived the breezy Hawaii swing…"
Commish says: This man's physicals according to ESPN are 6'1" 130lbs. 130!! And we thought Chet Holgrem was thin. BUT AKSHAY, LIKE YOU, LIMETIME, HAS MOXIE.

John Daly's Pants Award

The best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win.

@Mcheavens13 (J.T. Poston, OAD): "The US Post Office was established in 1775 and led by the great Ben Frank as the first Post Master General. In 1792 the Post Office Department was established with the passage of the Postal Service Act. After having many local Post Masters, typically the heads of newspapers around the nation, the Post Office Department was elevated to a cabinet level department in 1872. The United States Postal Service (USPS) that we know and love today was established via the Postal Reorganization Act signed into law by good ol' Dick Nixon in 1970. Now, 54 years later the next great US Post Master will take home the coveted American Express trophy. The Real JT. J.T. POSTon. "
Commish says: If we sent this comment to Poston, pretty sure he'd read it and tear up while whispering, "My God. I've made it, haven't I?"

"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award

Most convincing. (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)

@mahatma19 (Aaron Rai, OAD): "I know I'm supposed to research GIR and stuff, but instead I chose "highest-ranked golfer not wearing a collared shirt in his photo" as a strategy (with 2nd-highest-ranked collarless-shirt guy as a backup). Let's see how this strategy pays off..."
Commish says: Golf is THE place for pick strategies like this, because golfer headshots provide SO much material. We're on year 3 of SZN golf pools and this shit never gets old. Next week, just look at the pick page and think, "These are professional athletes. They are PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES!."

Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge

Wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)

@Sixers6thMan (Erik van Rooyen, OAD): "A big shout-out to the new Mustache King, Erik van Rooyen. May the "Stache" be with you!"
Commish says: Can we make this a thing? Because the "Mustache King" throne would be HIGHLY competitive for pro golfers.

MORE COMMENTS

@Autovhanchilly (Adam Hadwin, Survivor #1): "His favorite food used to be ice cream, but he's lost some weight so I don't think that's true anymore"
Commish says: Wait is this a real fact and if so, HOW COULD YOU TRUST HIM?

@rstpaul (Jason Day, OAD): "There's no such thing as a lock, but Sahith Theegala not being in the field to kick off (tee off?) the season has me shook. On the other hand, I am excited to see how bad Jason Day's Malbon outfits are going to get this year and whether it affects his game. Kangaroo country, let's ride."
Commish says: BRB making a SZN t-shirt that just reads "KANGAROO COUNTRY, LET'S RIDE!"

@BG (J.T. Poston, OAD): "I have a feeling I'm already screwed for the season. Saving Charley Hoffman for when I need him. "
Commish says: SZN t-shirt #2: SAVING CHARLEY HOFFMAN

@djennthedegen (Sungjae Im, OAD): "Joined at the last minute because well.... I am IM"
Commish says: WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF T-SHIRTS. (Also, great username.)

@Jevans4 (Xander Schauffele, OAD): "Honestly hate Xander so let’s just get rid of him as a pick for the first tourney of the SZN so I don’t have to think about possibly taking him any more this year. "
Commish says: WHAT DID XANDER DO TO YOU, EVANS? (Also, this man felt this SO much he picked Xander in every single pool this week.)

@jrcondon (Cantlay and Montgomery, Top 10s): "Thank you Ben Kohles, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Mac Meissner, and Raul Pereda for sharing your Senior Class pics. Also, shout out to Christopher Gotterup for stepping out of the bar to take his head shot."
Commish says: See what I'm saying about the headshots?! Also, Condon, clearly you didn't scroll to Blaine Hale Jr's photo, or he would DEFINITELY have been in this list.

@Ziqness (Xander Schauffele, Survivor #1): "Not to get lost in the Schauffele *snicker*, anyone that can pull off a first name that starts with an X has to be battle tested. Strategy is picking golfers whose hometowns are within a 50 mile radius of the golf course. Everyone likes a little home cookin ya?"
Commish says: So, why are you Ziqness instead of Xiqness? Bet you didn't see THAT question coming.

@AU_Dave (Tom Kim, OAD): "I don't play golf! I don't watch golf! I don't know anything about golf! But it's an SZN Pool, so it's gotta be fun, right!"
Commish says: THIS MAN GETS IT ON A SPIRITUAL LEVEL

@kbanaian (Eric Cole, Survivor #1): "Not going to get into this "just survive" mode. I'm going to be here awhile, so I am going to start right away with guys who are going well now and save the top-20 guys for later. "
Commish says: There is NO SWEAT on @kbanaian's brow to start the year off.

@BigFurryWookiee (Cam Davis, OAD): "This is the worst part of the PGA season for those of us in the Midwest. Watching dudes swing sticks for money in places where it's *not* -20°F with a foot of snow. So let's take the Aussie - at least he gets to get away from a scorching summer. What? Does someone else have better picking logic for week 1?"
Commish says: HEY WOOKIEE, if they can play golf on the moon they can play golf in the snow. LET'S BRING SOME INNOVATION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, YEAH?

@suckitspanos (Tom Kim, OAD): "And just like golf is back baby! I’m not sure if I’m more excited about the prospect of finally winning this whole dang thing or if @HaveYouCheckedYourButthole is going to crown a new king of the most punchable pga face. I’m betting Cantlay retains his crown "
Commish says: I don't think Sir HYCYBH commented this week, which makes me gravely concerned. Can we do a house check on HYCYBH? Did he get... punched in the face?!

@YikesVikes (Taylor Montgomery, OAD): "Field Marshal Bernard Law Montgomery was one of the most prominent and successful British commanders of the Second World War. Affectionately known as 'Monty', he was the master of the desert winning nearly every battle he fought. Now a new Montgomery, Taylor, wins in the desert, conquering the event across La Quinta Country Club, PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), and the Pete Dye Stadium Course. In the final round of The American Express 2023, Taylor Montgomery made a 17-foot birdie putt on the par-4 18th hole. This year, he is the law and makes a lot of those."
Commish says: Is... history... having a moment? We really threw it WAY back with our comments this week. Also, Yikes, I imagine you have one of those pinboards with a bunch of strings connecting the pins in your house - it's what you use to make these comments. Am I right?

@Light_The_Candle88 (Andrew Putnam, OAD): "I don’t know, he came up a lot when I googled 'american express picks'"
Commish says: Are you sure? I'd expect a bunch of insufferable blog posts about airline miles and credit cards. Andrew Putnam's PR reps doing WORK out here!

@Drwahi21 (Jason Day, 100 Tier): "The tourney tees of on a Thursday… Jason’s last name is Day… automatic lock of the century"
Commish says: I WANT WHAT HE'S HAVING PLEASE

@Pmaione (Sungjae Im, Survivor #1): "Who is Tiger Woods "
Commish says: CUE KEN JENNINGS: "This young golfer stunned everyone with his play at the '97 Masters."

@pkendle123 (Tony Finau, OAD): "You've gotta crack a couple eggs to make an omelette."
Commish says: (Fiercely nodding head)

@Jmoodz (Xander Schauffele, Survivor #1): "Enter Xanman - Metallica. Never getting cut."
Commish says: Golfers should 100% have walkup music to the first tee, similar to baseball players or pro wrestlers. WHO SAYS NO?!

@Erickson2000 (Hadwin and Xander, Top 10s): "I have no idea what I am doing."
Commish says: Erickson for President!!

@Blighton1 (Patrick Cantlay, OAD): "Can’t LAY 2024"
Commish says: HE'LL BE HERE ALL YEAR, FOLKS.

 

Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish