Friends in football,

We favor the four home favorites - as is standard in the Divisional Round - but history says it's highly unlikely that all four will win.

36% of us went chalk, taking the four home teams. And Commish doesn't even need to look up the distribution to tell you a large chunk of that 36% is coming from our folks at 6-0, 5-1, and 4-2.

If favorites prevail, the leaderboard will look similar. If 1 or more underdogs pull the upset, we're in for a big shake-up.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

Commish was WRONG about Main Pick'em and 100 Tier differences - the pick distributions are almost exactly the same this week.

I expected we'd see sizable differences each week. Last week, we had a few fun differences that I called out in this space.

This week? Might as well be the same pick distribution.

• Main Pick'em: 81% SF, 80% DET, 79% BAL, 64% BUF
• 100 Tier: 83% SF, 80% DET, 79% BAL, 65% BUF

BRB working on a new T-shirt: "100 Tier: Don't be intimidated. Just be EXTRA."

Looking just at our 6-0 and 5-1 leaders' picks, we DO see some fascinating differences.

Here's what that pick distribution looks like:

• 86% DET (+6% vs. overall pick rate)
• 79% BAL (same)
• 76% SF (-5%)
• 65% BUF (+1%)

At face value, there's a simple explanation: Packers fans tend to pick the Packers, and a winning Packers pick was THE key to posting a 6-0 or 5-1 record last week.

And it seems the Packers fans among us are continuing to ride the Cheese, even as they face their playoffs nemesis, San Francisco.

Commish would go so far as to speculate that, since leaders tend to pick FEWER upsets than those who need to make up ground, more Packers picks also means more Lions picks, as some of those would-be Bucs upset pickers felt the Packers upset pick was enough for this round.

If you have your own theory, reply and let me know!

Shout-out to our 91 "All 'Dogs" pickers, backing the Texans, Packers, Chiefs, and Bucs.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, there were FOUR pick combos that had fewer picks than the "all 'dogs" line.

When you need to make up ground, rooting for complete chaos is a hell of a lot of fun.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@KellMcK (100 TIER: Texans, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "Yeah, I am just as surprised as everyone else to find myself in this position. I have screen shot the hell out of the standings so I can relive this glorious day forevah!! Cheers to this week where I can only hope to not embarrass myself. "
Commish says: SZN pools are a lot more fun when we're brutally honest about our position. Our sole 6-0 100 Tier picker being like "lol where am I? this is awesome"? Give Commish more of this!! So... why is this the Moxie Award winner? DO YOU SEE THAT TEXANS PICK? From our 100 Tier leader, no less?! BOW DOWN TO KELL, OUR NEW MOXIE HERO!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Shaggybrak (Texans, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "I think after my picks last week that only picking upsets will do it for me but here’s the thing: I was once playing limit 7-Stud at Hollywood Casino, which was a better racetrack than a card room but I digress. This one guy just kept calling everyone down to 7th street, but one hand he couldn’t wait to raise into a multi-player pot. I had a set. Calling one more bet on 7th street with a made set is technically a no-brainer unless you’re beat and you know it. I folded. And all these old men, dead by now so don’t ask me to get them to join the pool next year, laid into me “it was only one bet,” “you’re a sucker” etc. Guy turned over a rivered flush and that’s why I hate GB. "
Commish says: Hey ShaggyB... ShaggyB... you with me? You can hear me alright? So, first of all, good fold. Now... ShaggyB... you can hear me? Cool. So, those old men at the table? Do you KNOW they're dead? ... No, right? ShaggyB... GET THOSE GUYS IN THE POOL!!!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@YikesVikes (Ravens, 49ers, Buccaneers, Bills): "TB as my upset. The Lions ranked 27th in passing yards and touchdowns allowed, giving a red-hot Baker Mayfield a perfect opportunity to make some noise. Tampa Bay is top 10 in points allowed, red zone touchdown percentage allowed, and rushing defense, which will be enough for the win. Bills: No one can tackle Josh Allen in the cold. Niners: The league’s youngest offense meets a dominant defense. Ravens: In the first game of his NFL career, Stroud went on the road to Baltimore and put up 242 yards without turning the ball over. But it's colder now against a Ravens defense that's learned better than to let him do it again."
Commish says: YikesVikes, what happened to the Crystal Ball? Did it go into storage after Kirky tore his Achilles? Is it in the Smithsonian? Is it in Mike McCarthy's man cave, where he keeps asking it if Aaron Rodgers would have won 3 Super Bowls in Green Bay with a different coach? ("Why does it keep saying "OF F***ING COURSE, MIKE"??)

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Alakhi (Texans, 49ers, Buccaneers, Bills): "CJ carries the Texans on his back over the Ravens, as Lamar becomes the CP3 of the NFL"
Commish says: I love Lamar but my God this is a ferociously hot take.

MORE COMMENTS

@ParlayAllDay22 (Texans, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "Joshua Smoshua"
Commish says: BRB CHANGING MY PICK TO CHIEFS

@DeektheGreek (100 TIER: Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "Its colder in Buffalo than a witches ***, in a brass bra, on an iceberg, in an igloo, on a waterbed thats frozen, with the AC on, naked. THAT is pretty darn cold...."
Commish says: How long did it take you to write this comment. Honest answers only.

@Lootsdoolb (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "99% chance I go 0-for-4 on my picks this week. They call me the Matt Millen of HasselBracket. Keep on trying, even if I haven’t a single clue what I’m doing and never learn from my mistakes. Godspeed."
Commish says: One of the best SZN t-shirts absolutely nobody else would understand: "THE MATT MILLEN OF HASSELBRACKET"

@Madman013 (100 TIER: Ravens, 49ers, Buccaneers, Bills): "I cannot believe I am picking AGAINST my Lions...after being a Lions loser for 30+ years! "
Commish says: It's called the "Hedge of Happiness", MadMan! A tried and true SZN tradition. If the Lions win, you're ecstatic. If the Lions lose, at least you have your SZN pick to provide some (small) solace. Only the baddest b's among us go for the INVERSE Hedge of Happiness (picking your own team, in a big game, with serious SZN stakes on the line). Commish never recommends it, but he always applauds it.

@rnorwood (100 TIER: Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "If I win I'm donating the money to build an ice rink for senior citizens to learn to skate. You're welcome America."
Commish says: You are a bad, bad, good man, Norwood.

@brandonaro17 (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "Ravens all the way. Lock it up and throw away the key, it’s already done "
Commish says: Imagine how easy it is to be Jim Harbaugh right now. Your team destroyed a bunch of "favorites" down the stretch. You have the 1-seed. You're getting key guys back. And Vegas doesn't even have you as the Super Bowl favorite. Easiest locker room material ever for the best team in football.

@Ziqness (100 TIER: Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "Tempted to take all home team but nothings ever that easy. Ravens and Niners hold serve against some young up starters, and closer games then one might think. Lions struggled a lot against the deep ball but I can’t in good conscious take Mayfield on the road. So last option is Chiefs Bills. Pulling a guy off the couch to start against the Steelers is one thing but against the defending champs?? Somethings hasn’t smelled right with the Bills all year and I’ll always lean towards the better defensive team. 21-17, butler kicks (7 fgs) them through to the next round "
Commish says: This comment is classic Ziqness. Normal, normal, reasonable, head-nodding... wait, WTF? 7 Butker FGs?

@Jmkahn (Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "Greatness has been chasing these 49ers, but the 49ers have always been faster. Packers by a thousand!"
Commish says: I BELIEVE YOU MEANT A BILLION.

@dgsaites (Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "HAIKU:
'Your stadium sucks
It's in wine and cheese country
Here comes as blizzard'
LET'S F***ING GO! TEAM OF DESTINY! GPG!!"
Commish says: PACKERS BY A BILLION!!!

@manonthemoov (Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "Can you Love Jackson but Goff at Allen?"
Commish says: See, I thought this would include a Chiefs over Bills pick. I guess your answer to your own question is "NO".

@Skinsfan03 (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "I don’t got an essay this week. essays never work, i always lose."
Commish says: Wait, wait, are you superstitious about your SZN pick comments? (Thinks about it...) YOU SHOULD BE. The more SZN comments you leave, the better your SZN picks will turn out. Commish knows. I have a direct line to the Survival Gods and we throw back BLLs like nobody's business.

@grandxerxes (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "Is it bad to pick home teams only? Have a feeling in setting myself up"
Commish says: I don't know but please tell me people call you Grand Xerxes.

@Jts5522 (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "I wanted to take the Texans, my favorite team, by convincing myself the Ravens have been off two weeks, etc. But… I am feeling like this is the game Lamar will solidify his 2nd MVP. I think the Texans will hang close, but after halftime it will be Lamar’s Takeover Time. How many teams are looking back now thinking about how they could have had Lamar for 2 first round picks before the season?? I’m going to say quite a few."
Commish says: Honestly the biggest story that gets almost NO publicity. EVERY single team in the NFL was free to negotiate a contract with the soon-to-be 2023 (and two-time) NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson before this season began. If you believe what's been reported, not a single team beyond the Ravens did so. I can't think of an analogous story, in any sport, in my lifetime.

@Mountain_Mama (Texans, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "Following my heart."
Commish says: Is your heart up in the Guadalupe Mountains of Texas?

@Hoofhearted (100 TIER: Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "All Chalk!"
Commish says: Hey @Hoofhearted, maybe you should change your username to @Blueblooded

@Nazrat82 (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs): "Allen returns to form and tosses 3 picks. "
Commish says: Is it bad that I laughed a little?

@pquintana (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "I hate the Pats"
Commish says: ... we really out here posting this comment weeks after their season ended and they fired the best coach in NFL history? (Checks notes.) YES WE ARE.

@BigO (Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "Not sure why... But my gut says Frisco way too laid back. I think they are in for a surprise."
Commish says: TELL ME MORE, BIG O.

@theonlyotto (Texans, Packers, Buccaneers, Bills): "GB HOUSTON in da BOWL beaches "
Commish says: ARE WE FRIENDS YET?

@BCoach8 (Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills): "Green Bay and Jordan Love continue to impress and pull off the upset in San Fran. "
Commish says: I HAVE CAPACITY FOR MORE FRIENDS

@Spiker744 (Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Bills): "Because Beer is Great!"
Commish says: FIND ME IN NEW YORK AND YOUR NEXT BUD LIGHT LIME IS ON ME

 

 

Yours in football,
The Commish