Friends in football,

Historically, in this round and in the Super Bowl, we start picking the underdogs more heavily.

(Reason being a lot of us need to make up ground on the leaders.)

But historically, hatred for the Chiefs among everyone who isn't a KC resident or a Swifty has NOT been this high.

And thus, we get 68% of us taking the slightly favored Ravens - our CLEAR top pick.

Meanwhile, Niners-Lions is nearly 50/50 despite San Francisco being a much bigger favorite.

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

Past editions of the Playoff Pick'em tell a story of increasing Chiefs dislike.

The AFC Title Game was Chiefs-Bengals in both of the past two years.

• 2021-22: 66% Chiefs, 34% Bengals
• 2022-23: 70% Bengals, 30% Chiefs

While it's true the Chiefs were lesser favorites in last year's game, they were still favorites!

It's clear a LOT of us want to see "anyone but the Chiefs" in the big game.

It didn't take us long to find our new villain, post Pats dynasty.

Let's examine who our leaders picked in both pools.

Keep in mind that Commish wrote this before picks locked. So, some picks weren't yet in and people could in theory have changed picks before kickoff. (But, directionally, this will be correct.)

Main Playoffs Pick'em

• Only TWO of our 7 leaders are currently on Ravens-Niners.
• Wow. Commish is stunned and also delighted by this. We are REALLY channeling the Moxie.
• Nobody picked BOTH underdogs.
• What this means, in practice, is that unless both underdogs win, we're gonna enter the Super Bowl with at least one undefeated leader in the Main Pick'em.
• The large group of folks at T7 didn't pick much different from the rest of us: 58% Ravens and 55% Niners.
• What that last bit tells me is a lot of people are playing to place highly (and thus get a solid cash) instead of shooting for the moon (winning it all). Totally reasonable play.

100 Tier Playoffs Pick'em

• This is juicy.
• As of writing, THREE of our 4 leaders are on the Chiefs to upset the Ravens.
• If you're the lone leader on the Ravens, you have to feel GREAT about this.
• All leaders picked the Niners.
• Given the folks one win back are picking the Ravens at a 78% clip, a
• Baltimore win is gonna make this finish VERY interesting.
• The pack one win back is 67% Niners, which is still heavy but not 100% like the leaders.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@tuligian (Chiefs, Lions): "What else can I do? I’m here to win a year’s worth of Bud Light Lime not just a six pack!"
Commish says: When bold souls who are 9-1 and currently in the money go for broke, THEY WIN MOXIE AWARDS, GLOBAL ADMIRATION, AND LIFETIME MEMBERSHIP INTO THE "WOULD CRUSH A BLL WITH THEM" HALL OF FAME.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@ben15newsome (Ravens, 49ers): "I joined The SZN at the behest of my brother to do the big NFL survivor. I lost in week 4. I lost Survivor #2 in the first week it was live. For weeks I ignored the reminders to make my Weekly Pick'em picks because I had lost all hope in my picking ability. About 15 minutes before the playoffs kicked off I realized that nearly 5 months ago I paid for the playoff pool as well. I scrambled to pick based purely off vibes, and here we are at 9-1. Nothing is impossible. Nothing."
Commish says: This comment made me want to run through walls just like that Andy Reid Kool-Aid Man meme. Do you hear that, Ben? DO YOU HEAR IT? EVERYONE IS CHANTING YOUR NAME!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@brandonaro17 (Ravens, Lions): "I don’t know how many times I’ve gotta say it but I’ll say it again: Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl, lock it in and throw away the key. Pat Mahomes gets shut down by the Ravens defense in a deafening M&T Bank Stadium, and Kyle Hamilton will slow down Kelce and prove why he was an All Pro this year. Lamar will have ~200 passing yards and another ~60-70 on the ground and put up another 4 tuddies. 35-24 Ravens victory. And Lions pull off an upset and shock the 49ers."
Commish says: BUT HOW MANY TUDDIES FOR JARED GOFF?

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Jmkahn (Ravens, Lions): "Why does Penei Sewell, the largest player, not simply eat the other team's front 4? Perhaps they're saving that for the Super Bowl?"
Commish says: This is the SZN comment equivalent of people hearing about airplane black boxes being indestructible and asking, "Well why don't they just make the whole plane out of it then?"

MORE COMMENTS

@rnorwood (100 TIER: Chiefs, 49ers): "I just wanna lie on the beach and eat hot dogs. That's all I've ever wanted."
Commish says: Even if it's the last thing I do, we're gonna make this a f***ing reality for you, Norwood. You've earned it.

@rmalta (Ravens, Lions): "Can Taylor Swift shell out for some mental health coverage for us Bills fans?? We are NOT OKAY."
Commish says: SHAKE IT OFF, MALTA.

@ekahn93 (Ravens, Lions): "I consulted my Ouija board last night. It told me what we all fear. The Chiefs vs the 49ers. Then I went to the Wedgie board, and it said Ravens vs Lions. That's all the confirmation I need. You can leave the toilet seat up on someone else's life, Ouija."
Commish says: Why do I have a sneaking suspicion all of this is actually true?

@mbarson2 (Ravens, 49ers): "Go Lions... but can they really win OUTDOORS?!?"
Commish says: Can Kyle Shanahan really lead a team to a big game victory?!

@ToddFather808 (Ravens, 49ers): "A SB Rematch either way!!"
Commish says: Dan Campbell, before today's game: "THE TODDFATHER HAS TOTALLY WRITTEN YOU OFF! F*** 'EM ALL. NOBODY OUTSIDE OF DETROIT BELIEVES IN YOU. TODAY WE PROVE THEM WRONG."

@gintrocaso (100 TIER: Chiefs, Lions): "Because of my risk at picking upsets early on, I am now forced to take underdogs again to try and make up ground. Guess we'll see how this goes but I don't have much faith haha"
Commish says: But see, the earlier underdog losses are simply accumulated wisdom that you will now use to employ Moxie at precisely the right times FOREVER FORWARD in your illustrious SZN career.

@kbanaian (100 Tier: Ravens, 49ers): "I don't know that I can even watch the AFC game after picking the Ravens. 3 hours of my heart in my throat whenever Mahomes is on the field, plus the damned commercials? Naw dawg."
Commish says: I will say that, think what you will about the Chiefs, Mahomes is VERY Brady-like in the biggest moments just seeming like average days on the job for him.

@LeviLeo (Ravens, 49ers): "I've seen too many conspiracy theories to not pick these teams"
Commish says: You're really out here talking about rejecting your own theories, Levi.

@joepreiner (Chiefs, 49ers): "I’ll be wearing my KC beanie in Iowa. So that means they can’t lose, obviously. Take that info to Vegas and it’ll implode."
Commish says: Do you want to date any of Taylor Swift's friends? YOU HAVE AN IN, JOE.

@Lambda_derg (Ravens, Lions): "Now rooting for Lamar to get the super bowl this year so hes got nothing to prove against a healthy bills defense next year."
Commish says: Ladies and Gentlemen, our first-ever MULTI-SZN, multi-layered, Inverse Hedge of Happiness!

@manonthemoov (Ravens, Lions): "I think Lamar should start going by a single L Cool J "
Commish says: THIS IS VERY GOOD.

@dgsaites (Ravens, Lions): "HAIKU:
"Axel rose is dope
The niners barely beat us
NEXT YEAR IS OUR YEAR"
Sorry axel rose is the oldest lions fan I know. NFC NORTH STRONG "
Commish says: Stat Czar (a Vikings fan) texted me today and was like "what if the Lions win a Super Bowl before the Vikings" and I couldn't even bring myself to think about the state of Vikings fandom if this were to happen

@Sixers6thMan (Ravens, Lions): "Just cause they got past the Pack doesn't mean the Ghost of Colin Kaepernick isn't still lurking..."
Commish says: Let's pour another one out for Dom Capers, who let Kaep run for nearly 200 YARDS in a playoff game while making ZERO adjustments.

@jreichert76 (Chiefs, Lions): "Chiefs just know how to get it done in the playoffs. Defense didn’t show up in Buffalo and still left with the win. However Detroit is starving. They are a hungry “Lion” and are not going to allow the sissy pants 49ers stand in their way. "
Commish says: POINTS WERE MADE HERE. MOXIE WAS DISPENSED.

@Steele0513 (Ravens, 49ers): "Can’t stand these four teams!! I hope they all lose!! Go Raiders!!"
Commish says: lol "MY PICK IS THE RAIDERS DON'T @ ME"

@dgetch (Ravens, Lions): "Yo soy fiesta"
Commish says: YO SOY FIESTA TAMBIÉN

@Spiker744 (Ravens, 49ers): "Chicken Wings!"
Commish says: YO SOY FIESTAAAAA

Yours in football,
The Commish