Friends in fore,

In Tiger's heyday, the AT&T Pebble Beach was a big-time event. Then... it wasn't.

In comes the PGA Tour's new rules, including this event getting a $20M purse and a limited field with no cut, and BAM. We're back.

We've pinned our hopes on Jordan Spieth to jumpstart our SZN. The man who... has a questionable-at-best history in Golf SZN competitions.
He might be our worst all-time golfer given his poor performances in 2022 and 2023 when we picked him big... BUT THIS IS A NEW YEAR, FRIENDS.

GET US GOING, JORDAN!

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

No one picked Round 1 leader, Thomas Detry, in YEYPO or 100 Tier.

Detry started HOT last week but faded down the stretch. Here he is again, after firing 10 birdies against a lone bogey Thursday.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody took last week's winner, Matthieu Pavon, either. He sits in third place, two shots behind Detry.

Sandwiched between them is Mr. Goldman Sachs, Patrick Cantlay, who was one of our heaviest picks this week.

In the first week of our "All 30" OAD, Spieth was used by more than a third of the entire pool.

This OAD runs during the 15 big money events (we double Phoenix Open to put it on par), you make two picks in each, and you have to pick EVERY ONE of the top 30 PGA golfers exactly once.

So, fully 34% of us were like "yup this is the time to slap down my Spieth card".

Our rationale was presumably two-fold: Spieth is in form (3rd and 6th in his last two events) and before a bizarro result last year (T63), Spieth has been great at Pebble (2nd, T3, T9, T9, T20, and 1st from 2017-22).

Naturally, Spieth was our top YEYPO pick last year at Pebble when he disappointed.

And naturally, he shot E on Thursday (T50). But given this is a no-cut event, he has three more rounds to return to his old Pebble form.

Despite 3-point golfers outperforming in Weeks 1 and 2, our top 5 picks in the Top 10s pool were still 2-point guys.

Our top 5: Spieth, Cantlay, Hovland, Homa, Scheff.

Commish gets the chalk - to SOME extent - in this format. But until we see the 2-point guys consistently delivering, the optimal strategy here remains in question.

Our top 3-point guys (meaning they're not in the top 15 guys by World Rank this week): JT (14% pick rate), Jason Day (12%), Finau (12%)... and then a big gap to Denny Mac (4%).

Let's look at our weekly skin opportunities.

The $1,000 OAD skins pot is divided at the end of the year among all skin winners.

• Full skin: Being the ONLY person to pick that week's winner.
• Half skin: Being one of 2 people on the winner.

Here are our YEYPO skin picks:

• Full skin opportunities: Adam Scott, Ben Griffin, Harris English, J.J. Spaun, Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Nick Hardy, Rickie Fowler, Taylor Montgomery, Taylor Moore
• Half skin oppos: Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Corey Conners, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim

Rickie is at T6 after Thursday, the best of any skin opportunity.

Commish is surprised no one sprang for Si Woo Kim, who is on the shortlist of "guys who can shoot 10-under at ANY time" (and also implode with a quad at any time).

COMMENT AWARDS

The 1-iron Moxie Award

Boldest pick (with a comment). You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@suckitspanos (Nicolai Højgaard and Kevin Yu, Top 10s): "When you’re hot you’re hot, and so I'm going with the scorched earth combo of Yu guessed it’s Hojooooogard for the top two pebble finishers. These Rookies gonna be shooting laser guided GIRs shots all week."
Commish says: If they both finish top 10, you design the "Yu guessed it's Hojooooogard" t-shirt and I'll pay for it. Scout's Honor. Just make sure there is gratuitous SZN branding.

John Daly's Pants Award

The best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win.

@Ziqness (Jordan Spieth, OAD): "I went to my first golf outing on my 26th Bday in 2012 and it was this event. I was amazed at the sheer debauchery of it all. Beer vendors and Vodka tents, joints lit on the shores edge, and portapotty lines as long as the eye could see (to take care of some other lines). Golf carts were left unattended with keys in them to anyone who was bold enough to give em a whirl. Got to meet Jim Harbaugh, Bill Murray, and Larry the Cable Guy, not in that order. Back then Spieth was the hot new ticket in town. Just thinking about how much my life has changed since then gives me goosebumps. We're turning back the clock and riding w/ the captain this week. So glad Kyle Shannahan is too busy to play this one."
Commish says: I feel like, regardless of age, most people's first time at a golf outing... varies greatly from yours. Releatedly, is the triumvirate of Bill Murray, Jim Harbaugh, and Larry the Cable Guy the dream "let's get drunk/high on a golf course" rotation? Could we fill 25 podcast episodes discussing this exact question?!

"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award

Most convincing. (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)

@YikesVikes (Max Homa, OAD): "Homa loves his California. The Burbank, CA native will make an impact in winning about two hours down the road from his old college stomping grounds. In 2022-23 he was 9th in Strokes Gained: Total (1.638). He was also sixth in SG: Putting (.612) and will be familiar with the poa annua greens in play this week. Homa will be hitting a lot of short irons into greens this week, and is ninth in average approach proximity from 125-150 yards. And if he misses, Homa has got the short game to hang in. He's15th in scrambling (64.52%). All that data shows that Homa can bring it home this week at Pebble and take the first edition with newfound Signature Event status. Cheers!"
Commish says: Just unassailable logic. Yikes, have you ever considered turning your analytical prowess on your own team (the Vikings)? What's that? You're not sure you should make the burden any heavier? Understood. Please forget I ever asked. GO MAX GO.

Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge

Wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)

@Jevans4 (Jordan Spieth, OAD): "AT&T could be one of the worst sponsorships out there for current PGA players. Right up there with Patty Ice The Tool Cantlay and DEWALT. But I don’t see DEWALT sponsoring any tournaments at one of the most iconic courses in the U.S. anytime soon. Spieth might as well bring it home so they can keep paying his internet bill for the rest of his career. "
Commish says: The idea of Cantlay using a power drill is hilarious. Like, 10% chance he even knows how to insert the battery.

MORE COMMENTS

@craigw (Brian Harman, OAD): "He’s a mudder and his mudder was a mudder."
Commish says: Vegas odds this will actually be Harman's epitaph: -10000

@Eannarelli (Matt Fitzpatrick, OAD): "The anticipation of seeing what rain jacket Lord Tommy will be wearing, and knowing I'll never even be in the market for that sort of clothing item is weighing on me heavy."
Commish says: But hold up. If you win YEYPO, you're in the market, right? Can we send a documentary film crew to capture this? Can we invite Tommy? Tommy's family? GET THE FLEETWOODS IN THE POOL!!!

@Mcheavens13 (Spieth and Denny McCarthy, Top 10s): "Denny comes from the Manning family tree of 'forehead to rest of face' ratio."
Commish says: Fun Fact: They had Denny all booked to come on the ManningCast this NFL season, until they discovered they couldn't fit all their heads in the frame.

@TopCat59 (100 TIER: Tony Finau): "Finau-aminal opportunity!"
Commish says: Alright, hear me out: Mortal Kombat except pro golfers. FINAU-TALITY. FLAWLESS VICTORY!

@Lambda_derg (Brendon Todd and Stephan Jaeger, Top 10s): "Betting on a year-to-year streak and an in-season streak to continue. I'll accept that I'm bad at picking at a later point."
Commish says: What is this, some superstitious shit? TELL US THE STREAKS, DERG.

@JBone69 (Jordan Spieth, OAD): "Jay Monahan is a cancer to the game of golf and the only person to blame for the predicament we find the PGA & LIV in right now."
Commish says: Jay is the worst. But also, once he's fired, GET JAY MONAHAN IN THE POOL!!!

@Moondogs (Jordan Spieth, OAD): "How old is that photo of Brian Harman?"
Commish says: Here at The SZN, we're only as relevant as the shit these pro golfers' agents allow to exist online.

@jrcondon (Day and JT, Top 10s): "In last week's email, @TheCommish said I was calm and collected over here. It was true then & it is true now. A simple 6-point week this week & I'm back... well close to being in it."
Commish says: At what point do we panic? Does the @jrcondon Panic Meter even exist? THE PEOPLE NEED ANSWERS.

@destroyerofbrews (Denny McCarthy): "Hovland a good backup pick!"
Commish says: Oh no. @Mcheavens13's comment last week has started a goddamn revolution. It's no longer even about your real picks. Who cares about prize money. All that matters is THE QUALITY OF YOUR BACKUPS. THE REAL ONES KNOW THE REAL GAME WE'RE PLAYING HERE.

@mahatma19 (Rory and Sahith, Top 10s): "And... I've ventured into a rabbit hole of googling "how many eyebrows does Sahith Theegala" have followed by "Is Sahith THEEgala related to Megan Thee Stallion." (answer = no)"
Commish says: GET MEG IN THEE POOL!!!

@BigFurryWookiee (Jordan Spieth, OAD): "Spieth in the wind and rain of a Pacific coast winter... the Force is strong in this one."
Commish says: Wookiee, Jordan might need you to literally show up to Pebble in costume, with a sign bearing your pick comment. Maybe that is what we ALL need to get our collective Golf SZN juju going. Can you do that, Wookiee? CAN YOU

@HaveYouCheckedYourButthole (Nick Taylor, OAD): "Pantrick Cantlay wears pleated pants."
Commish says: SOMEHOW THE LEAST DULL THING ABOUT HIM

@Sixers6thMan (Max Homa, OAD): "I'm HOMAward bound... I hope I'm right."
Commish says: WE'RE ENDING THE EMAIL.

Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish