Friends in fast breaks,
We got a decent little flurry of trade activity in the final 48 hours. Those GMs procrastinate their trades like you all procrastinate your picking 😏. Did we see the rumored "big" names traded? No. Do I think it made a meaningful impact on teams? Yes. Was it a lot of second round picks getting flung around? Yeah baby!
One trade does affect our picking slate going forward - B. Bogdanovic leaving DET puts them below our "2 players per team" threshold. He'll be listed with NYK for the rest of the season, but we need another DET player starting next week. Jaden Ivey feels like the most obvious replacement, since they shipped out all the other players Monty Williams kept playing instead. Jalen Duren has a decent argument too, but the scoring boost Ivey has seen since he's been getting more playing time feels like the better bet for our format.
REMINDER - This is the final week before the All Star Game. We'll have next week (Week 17) off, then return for picking in Week 18 (locking 2/23).
WEEK 16 PICKS
- Points One-And-Done
- Survivor #1
- "All 30" One-And-Done
- Survivor #2
- Weekly Pick'em
The GM AWARDS
Rewarding whatever random things I feel like. Feel free to suggest topics!
Biggest Deadline Winner - NYK
This isn't even consdering their moves earlier BEFORE the deadline. Getting Bojan (and Burks, if you like) for a disgruntled player, salary filler, and two second rounder picks is a deal. If you include their acquisition of OG, they've undeniably made huge win-now moves.
The best argument against them being the obvious winner is that they basically dumped all their young talent - Grimes, Quickley, and Barrett are all gone. It's a valid point, but winning a 'ship now is worth far more than being "competitive" four years in the future. And they've still got a pile of first round picks, so young talent can still come in (or they trade them, but still).
Honorable mention to the 76ers - Getting the always-in-rumors Hield, even on an expiring contract, after years for scraps is awesome. Assuming Embiid does manage to return at the end of the season and for the post-season, Hield makes them much more dangerous for a tiny cost.
Biggest Deadline Loser (No Trades) - LAL
Do you consider it possible to be a loser because you did nothing? If so, I think it's the Lakers. They entered the season expecting to be contenders, yet now they sit right above .500. It seems pretty clear they're both missing something, but now they have to double down and try to figure it out. LeBron and Davis look fine, but the supporting cast is *shivers*.
Honorable mention to the BulIs. Didn't move Lavine, didn't move any pieces to begin a rebuild or even a "retooling". They're just going to keep doing the same thing. At least Coby seems to have arrived?
Biggest Deadline Loser (With Trades) - DET
I've heard the "made more room for their young players" argument - It's technically right, the best kind of right, but that doesn't mean they weren't dumb in the process. I DO like that they did that. But you can also do that by PLAYING YOUR YOUNG PLAYERS. You don't need to move a ton of players out to accomplish it. But it seems like forcing Monty's hand is the only way. I do like that they got Grimes, they needed a shooter and hopefully he can get some run since he got buried on the NYK bench. But that's just not a silver lining enough here for their incompetent coaching and mediocre returns.
Honorable mention to TOR. They already made a great pivot from the remnants of their contending era team to focus around the younger Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett trio. But the Schroder-Dinwiddie swap and waive? Getting Olynyk and Agbaji? Keeping Bruce Brown? What are we doing here? I don't see the vision.
PICK STATS
Points OAD
- P. Banchero takes the top spot with 50 pickers
- Did I miss the memo this week?
- Guy posted a single 30 point game in the last few weeks and nothing super spicy around that one
- LAC and BOS all over the top of the board this week, very interesting
- We've never seen team clusters like this before
- You can even include BKN, having two in this cluster as well
- Interesting low volume picks: D. Mitchell (1 pick), D. Ayton (1), M. Turner (1)
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- We're looking at 9 players with 80%+ usage
- When you consider people who stop picking, we might be hitting our upper limit on max usage
- B. Bogdanovic now last in usage at 10 picks, but maybe the NYK trade will get him some more action?
- We're looking at 9 players with 80%+ usage
Survivor #1
- Status check
- 20 of you are still flawless (no wrong picks)
- 45 of you have missed once, but are still kicking
- BKN is our top team this week with 15 picks
- SAS is bad, but... this is a very losable game
- Just behind them are LAC (13 picks) and MIL (11)
- The talent gap for DET and CHA feels much safer here
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- Only looking at picks from alive players
- GSW and MIL at 96.9% usage
- LAL with really low usage (29.2%) considering the brand name and expectations for the year
"All 30" One-And-Done
- Again, BKN on top (39 picks), followed by LAC (36)
- But then we get different, with BOS, MEM, ORL, and MIL
- LOVE seeing us take swings on the bruised and battered MEM
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- TOR up to 28 picks, growth for them!
- 12 teams over 50% usage
- With double picks starting soon, this will be an interesting escalation!
Survivor #2
- Status check
- 60 of you are still flawless (no wrong picks)
- 93 of you have missed once, but are still kicking
- BOS reigns supreme with a huge 66 picks
- Flock to safety, I get it
- Then LAC (28 picks) and BKN (19)
- Who is my singular WAS picker!??!
- YOU DESERVE GLORY, you should have left a comment!
- Digging into the Golden Spreadsheet...
- Only looking at alive players here
- Now LAC, MIL, and BOS over 60% usage
- POR still untouched
Weekly Pick'em
- 17 games in the slate this week
- We've got 5 close matchups
- MEM @ CHA - 51.4% for CHA
- ATL @ PHI - 52.8% for PHI
- HOU @ TOR - 54.9% for HOU
- OKC @ DAL - 57.7% for OKC
- NOP @ LAL - 59.4% for LAL
- We've got 3 lopsided matchups
- DET @ LAC - 99.0% for LAC
- CHA @ MIL - 99.0% for MIL
- WAS @ BOS - 98.6% for BOS
- That leaves 9 games in the "middle"
- Three ~99%-ers? Amazing
- We still haven't seen a perfect week, but I'm not feeling this one to be it
BEST PICK COMMENTS
@Flem (P. Banchero, Z. Williamson): "Duuuuuuuke oh god I hate Duke "
GM says: Nobody is forcing you, you don't have to hurt yourself like this
@kbanaian (Weekly Pick'em): "How do you account for players in transit to their new teams and judging whether they will suit up? Commish, we needed this weekend off!"
GM says: Dread it, run from it, chaos arrives all the same. You can have your break next week for the ASG.
@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (MIL, Survivor #1): "If they can’t win this game I renounce my fandom."
GM says: Pat Bev won't let them lose (from the bench)
@StatCzar (CLE, Survivor #2): "Gonna take the Cavs who have Toronto on the second night of a back-to-back and who are likely all pissed about Jarrett Allen's All Star spot going to Scottie Barnes. In the meantime I'm going to YouTube all the LeBronto clips as sometimes I think that man was born just to torture the Raptors. Even in LeBron's first Cleveland stint there was that time the Raptors were up big and Chris Bosh's girlfriend started talking trash to LeBron who proceeded to go off for the rest of the game and then walk over and tell her afterwards that she did this. Needless to say, she did not become Chris Bosh's wife. "
GM says: I'll take the "back to back" and "better than TOR" arguments for the win. Still not unsold on the JA snubbery.
@Logan2273 (BKN, All 30): "NO SLEEP TIL BROOKLYN"
GM says: NO WIN FOR WEMBY!
@kbanaian (N. Jokic, T. Maxey): "Realizing there are not THAT many weeks left, we'll spend these guys before the All-Star Break. "
GM says: Don't forget we're about to start Interval 3, there's still one more new set of prizes to fight for!
@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (Weekly Pick'em): "17-0, book it, or I'm just whistling dixie! (what does that even mean???)"
GM says: I can't even whistle... so I'm just yapping
@YikesVikes (C. Thomas, J. Harden): "It was very Harden to pick this week, so Cam it down, that's all folks, said the rabbit to the carrot. "
GM says: I wanted to write Porky Pig's stuttering sound, but then realized I had no idea how to do it
@RedEd4 (J. Brown, A. Sengun): "🤷🏼♂️"
GM says: The day you're confident in your picks is the day I buy a lotto ticket
@kbanaian (BOS, Survivor #2): "I want to meet the SZNer who takes Washington tonight. That person will help us finally solve who killed JR."
GM says: With 30 minutes until lock, there IS a Survivor #2 pick on WAS.
YikesVikes (Weekly Pick'em (H2)): "Why would anyone ever do fantasy NBA, it's usually only a two minute game when it counts? Because it's the thrill of SZNing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm thrilled now. "
GM says: Early on, I pitched to Commish that we should call our members "SZNings". You'll notice we don't call you all that.
Yours in Roundball Rock,
The GM