@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have never had a losing NFL betting season. We have no idea how. Each week, we rank the best survivor picks.
WE'RE BACK!
Each week, my dad and I will break down what really matters on The SZN: Which teams are the best survivor picks?
Unlike traditional power rankings, survivor power rankings look ONLY at this week's matchups. We also factor in future value. Remember, once you pick a team, you can't pick that team again.
Underdogs are rarely picked in survivor, so we rank each favored team. And since my mom is the best SZN picker in my family (she won the whole damn March Madness bracket last year!), I include her picks, too.
Commish: "We're back for another year, Daddio. Are you feeling wiser?"
BigDaddy: "No."
C: "Are you sure?"
BD: "There's always trepidation in Week 1. You don't want to go out in Week 1."
C: "How many times have you gone out in Week 1?"
BD: "I think once."
C: "I haven't made it past Week 3 since 2010."
BD: "That's just demoralizing."
C: "Thanks, Dad."
Vegas line listed next to each favorite. Home teams in caps. Power ranks result from the average of our three individual rankings. Full commentary below.
#1: Steelers (-8) over BROWNS
Average ranking: 3.0; @BigDaddy's top pick
BD: "Why do you have them so low?"
C: "Road team in a divisional game. This breaks all the rules. I presume you're thinking because Cleveland is Cleveland, the rules don't apply?"
BD: "Yeah. I don't even know who the Browns quarterback is."
C: "DeShone Kizer."
BD: "Yeah... but didn't they pick one of those stud quarterbacks?
C: "Yeah. That's him."
BD: "See what I mean?"
#2: RAMS (-3.5) over Colts
Average ranking: 4.3
BD: "You know, the Rams are a lot better this year. They're fricken hittin', man. The defense is good. They hit hard."
C: "I agree. But their quarterback is Jared Goff."
BD: "He might have a breakout year."
C: "Indy is a 2-14 team without Andrew Luck. That's why we have the Rams here.
BD: "Wade Phillips is the Rams' defensive coordinator."
C: "Oh, damn. Didn't know that. Can Wade Phillips teach Jared Goff how to throw?"
#3: PATRIOTS (-9) over Chiefs
Average rank: 4.3
C: "The Patriots can never be the #1 power ranking team unless it's Week 17 and the title is on the line. You give up a ton of future value, and the emotional factor has to play in: For non-Pats fans, losing on a Pats pick is the WORST; for Pats fans, losing with your own team is the WORST."
BD: "OK but you have them really high. Why?"
C: "The Pats don't lose openers; they have KC's number; there's a lot of big road favorites. This just feels like the only truly safe bet."
BD: "There's gonna be a time when Brady doesn't perform as well. I think this might be the beginning of it."
#4: Falcons (-7) over BEARS
Average rank: 4.7; @TheCommish's top pick
C: "You think Chicago's got a fighting chance, Dad?"
BD: "No. But Atlanta didn't win a game in the preseason."
C: "You think that matters?"
BD: "No."
#5: BUFFALO (-8) over Jets
Average rank: 7.0
C: "You have this #15? The Jets, on paper, are going to be catastrohpically bad. They have one guy on their roster who's caught an NFL pass."
BD: "They're two crap teams. Anyone can win that game."
C: "So you're down on the Bills?"
BD: "Yup. I think Buffalo has lost at home in the opener the last three years."
(Commish research: The Bills are 2-1 in their last three home openers.)
#6: TEXANS (-5.5) over Jags
Average rank: 7.7; @LibbySims' top pick
BD: "#13? What the Bortles?"
C: "We've never seen an opener played under conditions like this. Who knows what headspace the Texans are gonna be in."
BD: "Bortles."
@LibbySims, from the living room: "The circumstances obviously favor Houston. Plus, Bortles."
#7: Panthers (-5.5) over NINERS
Average rank: 8.0
BD: "I favor teams that just have terrible opponents, like Pittsburgh, or teams that I think have drastically improved their team, like the Niners. I think San Francisco is gonna beat Carolina."
C: "What did San Francisco improve?"
BD: "Their quarterack is, um...
C: "Are they playing Hoyer?"
BD: "Ya. And he's a good quarterback. Brian Hoyer.
C: "Brian Axel Hoyer."
BD: "He's got two syllables for his first name. Two for his last name. Bri-an Hoy-er."
C: "Aa-ron Rod-gers."
#8: PACKERS (-3) over Seahawks
Average rank: 8.3
C: "Wow. You've got Green Bay #2."
BD: "It's kind of like the Atlanta-Chicago game.
C: "... except there's no Chicago in this game?"
BD: "We've had Seattle's number. Crushed them last year. Should have beaten them in the NFC Championship game - combination of unexplainable events."
C: "That was the toughest loss of my lifetime."
BD: "Seattle doesn't have a very good passing game, and that's our weakness - our secondary. We match up well against them."
C: "Russ-ell Wil-son. But he has, like, 8 picks in his last two games against us."
#9: BRONCOS (-3.5) over Chargers
Average rank: 9.0; @BigDaddy's bottom pick
C: "Phil-ip Riv-ers. If we were to rank quarterbacks who could play in the NFL at age 50, I'm putting Rivers atop that list."
BD: "I think the Chargers are gonna go in there and beat 'em."
C: "Why?"
BD: "Another game that could go either way. Denver has a new coach. We know nothing about him.
C: "I'd be more comfortable picking a very good defense at home than a lot of these other games."
BD: "I think a lot of pepole are gonna give up the points there just because it's Denver."
C: "So you think the line is artficially down on San Diego?"
BD: "Yeah. And you said San Diego."
C: "Ugh. Yeah. That's gonna be really hard to fix.
#10 thru #12...
BD: "Anyone else you like?"
C: "I'm busy thtinking of 2-syllable quarterback names. Is this the secret to the universe?"
BD: "Who's the Cowboys guy?"
C: "Dak Pres-cott. Nope."
BD: (Laughs)
C: "They're screwed aren't they?"
#13: VIKINGS (-3.5) over Sains
Average rank: 11.3; @BigDaddy's upset pick
BD: "My upset pick is the Saints coming into US Bank Stadium and upsetting the Vikings. And Adrian Peterson having a huge game.
C: "On the spectrum of cruel things to happen to Minnesota sports fans, where would that rank?"
BD: "They have a history of shitty things happening to them, but that'd be right up there. Like their kicker. Misses a dink in the playoffs then goes and kicks for the team he let win."
#16: COWBOYS (-4) over Giants
Average rank: 13.0; @TheCommish's bottom pick and upset pick; @LibbySims' upset pick
C: "Giants-Cowboys is the wackiest rivalry out there. Every game is ridiculous. The Cowboys outperformed last year. Eli might throw 5 picks, he might throw 5 TDs. He might do both."
BD: "Dak!"
*****
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