Philosophers of the Brownsy and Green,

Commish can feel the overconfidence. We're all a little too "Brett Favre when he sees it's ONLY double coverage" right now.

Somewhere around the middle of last season, the survivor narrative turned from "Yeah but do I save them?" to "Yeah but they're REALLY bad."

It became about the stankness of the stank instead of the greatness of the great.

This approach proliferated because the 2016 Browns, Niners, Jets, Rams, and Bears were mucho stank. And it's continued in 2017 because, while the Rams and Bears have looked better, the Colts and Bengals... have not.

But this won't last. There's too much perceived stank. Too much picking confidence. Commish should create a Survivor Fear Meter that shows when we're riding dangerously high.

I doubt we'll see the 2015 Survivorpocalypse all over again, but remember, that was just two years ago today. ONWARD!

WEEK 2 PICKS AND FAST FACTS

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View every single damn pick in the spreadsheet
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FAST FACTS:

• The Raiders are our first majority pick of the year, with 55 percent of us banking on Oakland taking care of the Jets at home.
• In BFIG's 8+ seasons, majority picks have won 89 percent of the time.
• Two ways to look at this: 1) In the NFL, 90 percent is as "mortal lock" as they come; and 2) That means there's a 10 percent chance BFIG gets blown up today.
• Infamous majority picks: Giants losing to Seahawks in Week 5, 2011 (78% eliminated); Titans losing to 0-8 Jags in Week 10, 2013 (79% eliminated); Saints losing to Bucs in Week 2, 2015 (over 1,000 people - 52% - eliminated).
• Despite going 12-4 last season, the Raiders netted just 302 total BFIG picks, and were never higher than the fourth-most-picked team.
• From 2009 through 2015, the Raiders were picked in just 10 weeks - an average of 1.4 weeks per season.
• For all intents and purposes, this is Oakland's first time being BFIG's top pick. They were technically in this position once before, when five of the six remaining survivors picked them in Week 15, 2010. Oakland won.
• So, sure, the Raiders are CLUTCH in BFIG.
• The Seahawks (14%), Ravens (12%), and Cardinals (9%) were the other teams to receive more than 3 percent of our picks.

WEEK 2 AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's third most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt and the Haynesworth Hustle Award. You can't win BFIG without showing a little Moxie!

New rule: A comment is required to win the Moxie. Let the people understand your moxie. Let the people FEEL your moxie!

@christopherhong (Texans): "Thinking back to the season where 98% of the pool was eliminated in Week 2 has brought much fear and trepidation to my pick this week. I will be sidestepping the week 2 bfig survivorpocalypse by picking the team with the most lukewarm moxie. I'm that crazy hobo pissing himself on the street corner holding up signs " The End Is Near" "OH S*** the survivorpocalypse is coming. Run!". "

Commish says: I WOULD BATHE IN LUKEWARM MOXIE ALL DAY!!! Great pick, man.

Commish Communication Award

Quite simply, this is BFIG's best weekly comment (or two)

@jjhauser11 (Raiders): "In third grade, my soccer team (the Moraga Tigers) lost its first game of the season 10-0. After the game we were all pretty down in the dumps, heads bowed with capri suns and orange slices in hand, but our coach told us not to worry. He was happy to announce that we would have a new kid joining our team the next week straight from Milan, Italy. That kid turned out to be Oakland Raider's kicker, Italian Stallion and burgeoning heartthrob Giorgio Tavecchio. The Moraga Tigers went on to win every single game the rest of the season, with Giorgio scoring 45 goals, me scoring 3 and one other kid kicking in 1 (Source: Elias Sports Bureau). Giorgio and I went on to play high school football together for the inimitable Campolindo Cougars. During games, Giorgio would wear an armband that was meant to hold a playsheet, but which he instead filled with a picture of field goal uprights. In the middle of the uprights was a picture of the Italian flag. On either side of the uprights (wide left and wide right) was a picture of the French flag. He would check that wristband before every single kick. You can't make this stuff up. When my career promptly and predictably ended at the conclusion of high school, George took the next step to kick at Cal. In the offseason, he would wait tables at Amoroma (the only decent Italian place in Moraga, CA) to help pay the bills and I would eat there to inadvertently gain weight. The entire town of Moraga (and the entire country of Italy) was always rooting for Giorgio, so when he got signed onto the 49ers preseason team in 2012, the hype was real. He garnered quite the following and we were always completely bummed out whenever the eventual news of his release would come out. He went through SIX STRAIGHT YEARS of preseason cuts (including this year!!) before he finally got his chance last Sunday. And just as everyone expected, he rose to the occasion and stole the spotlight, setting an NFL record by being the first ever kicker to nail two 50+ yarders in his debut and drilling all four of his field goal attempts. (Side note: he also legitimately wishes EVERYONE on Facebook a Happy Birthday, regardless of how little he knows about them. The dude is like clockwork and undoubtedly sent off a few "Happy Birthday!"messages from the locker room in Tennessee at half time. Not kidding. Friend him right now and he'll send you a note on your special day, no questions asked.) Seriously, this guy is the stuff of legends and should not be ignored. Anyways, I'm picking the Raiders because they're playing the Jets. "

Commish says: I just friended Giorgio. (No, really, I did. We have one mutual friend who is also in BFIG.) If he doesn't accept by halftime of the Jets game, can you please nudge him? Thanks, man.

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL. Can you convince anyone that your pick is the right pick? Then I bet you could sell Bengals tickets, too!

@cthompy (Raiders): "Not overthinking this one. Last season, the Jets allowed 35 plays of 25+ yards through the air (that's a lot). They allowed 5 20+ passing plays in Week 1 to the Bills (to Charles Clay and Shady McCoy??). Enter Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Jared Cook. The Jets front 7 was consistently pushed around last week. Things do not get any easier in Week 2, as they travel to Oakland to take on the NFL's 2nd best OL. Raiders 27-7 "

Commish says: Did they really allow five such plays to the Bills last week? (Looking...) Man, do I feel good about my Raiders pick now!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Can you teach us something new? No, there are no rules. Just teach us something. Anything. Please?

@ajgoldman (Ravens): "Look. I don't believe in much. I believe that there is somebody in the world for everyone, that true love exists, and that people should try to get along. I believe that people should be free to practice whatever religion they want. I believe that bourbon is better than vodka, that burgers are better than hot dogs, and that Coke is better than Pepsi. I believe that Han shot first. I believe that anyone calling themselves a "hacker" unironically should be executed. I believe that Jordan was secretly suspended from the NBA for gambling. I believe that at least three of our former presidents are reptile-people, but not the three that are commonly assumed (Martin Van Buren IN THE HOUSE). I believe that aliens walk amongst us but are just really bored teenage aliens. I believe that Ayrton Senna was executed at Imola. I believe that Deepwater Horizon was a false flag to cover up evidence of Cthulu rising from the deep. I believe that coffee enemas prevent colon cancer, that healing crystals only work when ingested, and that psychiatrists and Scientologists are in cahoots. I believe that TNG is better than TOS, and that George Lucas secretly died in the 80s and was replaced with Paul McCartney. I believe that, played backwards, "Stairway to Heaven" contains a recipe for goulash. I believe that electric cars are a conspiracy by oil companies to hold on to their oil because it is secretly delicious. I believe 1+1 can equal 3, depending on how attractive the person asking you is. I believe that midichlorians and thetans are the same. I believe that there are five lights. I believe in the Bernoulli effect is a hoax and centrifugal and centripetal force is the same. I believe that a horse is a horse of course of course. I believe that jet fuel can't melt steel beams but the chemtrails that jetliners carry can. I believe in holding your breath when crossing the International Date Line. And I believe that you always, always pick against the Browns."

Commish says: What did we learn here? Well, everyone probably left with their own takeaways. But, we ALL learned a new goulash recipe. GIVE THE MAN AN AWARD!

THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'

Long the First Family of BFIG Commenting, Rob and Paige have never met a laughably absurd and questionably relevant analogy they didn't love.

@rnorwood (Bengals): "It's Pot Luck luncheon season again at work. (Bad Luck if you ask me.) Nothing ushers in Fall like employees getting a chance to weaponize green-bean dogshit casserole and inflict it upon their fellow hardworking associates. The centerpiece of this particular September gathering is Chris' famous guacamole, aka "The Devil's Earwax." The triple threat in this particular problem goes like this: 1) I despise guacamole. It's truly my Kryptonite. 2) It's being served at a Bad Luck luncheon, a known bastion of poor cooking, questionable sanitary standards and lukewarm bacteria, and 3) It's made by the guy at work who absolutely insists on calling me, Tony Bro-mo, Tim Te-bro, Abroham Lincoln or Bro-ba Fett. Every. Damn. Time. Bottom line, that dude is from Cincy and I figure Broheim (and the Bengals by extension) owes me one."

Commish says: No. NO. BRO! NOOOOOOO!!!

@crashfu14 (Seahawks): "Spelling Bees are intriguing with all their formal procedure, the pressure cooker environment and awkward, albeit brainy maladjusted contestants. Moderator: "Your word is douchebaguette." Contestant: "Douchebaguette. Word origin and meaning please?" Moderator: "Douchebaguette, from the Latin meaning "a female with an over-inflated sense of self worth coupled with an obnoxiously demonstrative personality."" Contestant: "Can you use it in a sentence please?" Moderator: "Phyllis Rivers frequently cried about the officiating, showcasing her typical douchebaguette self." (This has little to do with picking Seattle, but a little non-sequitur in moderation is good for you.)"

Commish says: Well, it's relevant because the Seahawks eat douchebaguettes for breakfast, right? Right. Thought so.

MORE PICK COMMENTS

@robbobobbo (Raiders): "temporary pick comment DO NOT READ"

Commish says: The f*** is this, Rob? Telling Commish "Do not read" is like telling Favre "There is no throwing lane there."

@cwledwards (Raiders): "Have you heard what happens if you look into the mirror and say "Don't get cute" three times while still alive in BFIG? Apparently all of the TVs in your house start replaying the final play of Super Bowl XLIX and Marshawn Lynch steps out of your shower."

Commish says: CAN WE DO THIS TOGETHER?!?

@dinosarducci (Cardinals): "There will be upsets again this week and I am calling the Saints at home over the Patriots 45-42 with a game winning FG no time left on the clock. But now onto my pick. THis weeks race features a one wing-ed cardinal and a once thoroughbred champion turned gimpy donkey chasing after squirrels yelling put me out of my misery. The cardinal knowing his destination halls his injured ass down the raceway and wins while not even flying......stupid donkeys. Cardinals roll 42-10 "

Commish says: The most accurate pick comment of the week, told exclusively through animal analogy. You have a future in this, Dino.

@TebowPlaysBaseballNow (Raiders): "Hey BFIGers, BLL-slammers, Patriot-haters, and all of the rest of you - first, let me apologize. I spent all of last week drinking chardonnay on the beach in Delaware with my pre-husband's family and I didn't write my pick comment until 4 minutes before the deadline. I'm sure most of you have lost sleep wondering why Season 2 of Useless City Facts with Britt didn't come back Week 1. Well, I don't blame the Commish. I blame my pre-husband's Bills-loving family for getting me too drunk to remember to write the comment earlier. It was pretty good, too (picture this: yoga pants = illegal in Buffalo but going topless = legal). Let's move on to Week 2! As my fellow BFIG buddy just emailed me - let's not get cute here. Raiders will beat the Jets and we'll see you in Week 3 for the next fact, so let's just get this over with. Did you know that Oakland is home to a gigantic ladybug orgy? Each year, millions of ladybugs migrate to Redwood Regional Park in Oakland, group together to mate, form a big cluster of adorable ladybug love, and then fly away home. It's rumored that Marshawn Lynch was conceived in said-ladybug orgy in 1986, which may explain his eyes. Bonus fact: ladybugs copulate for more than 2 hours at a time. Now that's some stamina that the Jets just won't have on Sunday. "

Commish says: After reading this comment, I think I get what it's like to take HGH or apply deer antler spray. I did NOT see UCKFUB last week. I felt... empty. It stuck with me all week, despite my last-second BFIG win. But now? NOW? Commish is a whole new LADYBUG LOVIN' MAN!!!

@marcpezzicara (Raiders): "Do the Jets even want to win? "

Commish says: This is a fascinating question. And it hardly ever gets asked. The fans want to "Suck for Sam." The owner and GM seemingly do, too. The coach, who almost certainly is saddled with an absolute shit quarterback that's put the team here in the first place, wants the #1 pick so long as he feels his job is safe. But how about the players? They don't want to play for a shit team forever... but as with 99 percent of athletes (Haynesworth and Oakland Randy Moss excepted), they HATE losing. So my guess is they do want to win. Anyone want to challenge me here?

@naughtontimothy (Cardinals): "The Colts without Luck is like a Bud Light without lime."

Commish says: Oh my god. No. No no no no no.

@gym_now_wine_later (Seahawks): "Last year, I signed up for BFIG (like a boss) and the hubby didn't. He tried to influence my decision each week....even though I just wanted to choose teams based of alliteration or cities I wanted to visit. This year, I got him to sign up so he could pick teams for himself. Week 1 and who does he pick? That's right, the Patriots. So since he's out for the running and he's a huge 49ers fan, I'm choosing Seattle Seahawks for Week 2. (Plus- alliteration). "

Commish says: BURN OF THE WEEK!!!

@jbarton (Bengals): "Big Ginger once said BLL is a terrible beer because it's not gingervating"

Commish says: YEAH SO NEVER PICK HIM, MAN

@MikeMamula (Raiders): "I don't know why the f*** I did this pool again. This isn't a slight at you, Commish (love you man), rather an acceptance of my own incompetence. To me, BFIG is like Taco Bell: an amazing idea after a night of Natty Bos and grain alcohol that turns to shit a lot faster than anticipated and leaves you feeling empty and depressed. Last year the Detroit f***ing Lions torpedoed my survivor dreams in week 2. WEEK GODDAMN TWO. Oakland better not f*** this up against the NY Dumpsterfire Jets. I WANT TO KNOW WHAT BEING ALIVE IN WEEK 3 FEELS LIKE. "

Commish says: ORDER ALL THE CHALUPAS, MIKE! WEEK 3 IS LIKE CRUNCHWRAPS IN BALI!! IF YOU WIN THE BELT, PLEASE SEND ME 45 ORDERS OF NACHOS BELLGRANDE SEASONED WITH THE NECTAR OF 12 BUD LIGHT LIMES ALL PACKAGED IN AN XXXXL CHEESEHEAD!!!!!

@Jets (Raiders): "If the Raiders lose this game to my Jets, I will give Commish my car no questions asked. "

Commish says: SZN rule #33: When a pick comment is printed, it becomes the equivalent of blood oath. Anything offered must be done. (Thinking... thinking... I still want the Raiders to win.)

@ajbender9 (Raiders): "there's a hot girl next to me at apple store but i'm too scared to say hi. might ask if she comes here often. just thought i would share with you because i won't share this insignificant story with anyone else. "

Commish says: Once again, rule #33: If printed in a PICKS email, it must happen. Go back and wait at that Apple store every single day until she comes again. SHE BOUGHT APPLE CARE. SHE'LL COME AGAIN!

@SWEETLOU777 (Raiders): "Oakland, This will be an epic beat down. The Bills Mafia was mentioned last week. They are one f***ed up, but dedicated group. I have respect for them as fans. They love their team even though they suck and have the longest playoff drought in all major sports. They are not intimidating though. You know what is? The Black f***ing Hole in Oakland. Here is a Game of Thrones comparison to put in perspective for you. Let's say the Bills Mafia met the Black Hole fans in a showdown. The Mafia would be the Lannister army shield boys watching the Dothraki and a big f***ing Dragon charging to stomp and incinerate their asses. These fans are the epitome of hardcore. Don’t even f***ing think about going to this section unless you live your life 24x7 as a Mad Max character. Let's take a quick look at the definition of a Black Hole: black hole - ˈˌblak ˈhōl 1. A region of space having a gravitational field so intense that no matter or radiation can escape. 2. informal- a place where people or things, especially money, disappear without trace. Their dedicated fan section is modeled after something that completes obliterates any and all things. The Raiders draw true inspiration from these crazy motherf***ers and now I am too. You really going to f*** with that when the 2017 (we are playing for Sam Darnold) Jets are rolling in? The informal definition is spot on as well. Placing your money on the Jets means it's will vanish and you can wait for the 2nd chance pool to collect a f***ing participation ribbon. "

Commish says: The pronounciation version of black hole (blak ˈhōl) looks like a Danish sock brand. In other news, COMMISH HAS TOTAL FOCUS RIGHT NOW!

@mrauchle (Ravens): "Joe Flacco: my muse, my flame. I extend this pick unto you to finally prove to the losers and haters (of which there are many) that you are indeed an "elite" quarterback. Beating the Mighty Cleveland Browns is the ultimate test. Good luck my sweet prince."

Commish says: Flacco's nickname needs to immediately change to "The Sweet Prince." Should we start it here? STARTING IT HERE!

@stuntmonkeys (Raiders): "This is my first year in BFIG so I'm not super familiar with the comment culture. I decided to run all of week 1's published comments through an algorithm to help me fit in: I thought I was showing survival moxie last week when I picked the Bills because my father-in-law predicted a blind, three-legged dog will slam the most plastic tables while tailgating with the Bills Mafia. How Brownsy of me (they were the most picked team)! This week, I expect I'll be going chalk again (this isn't a pick 'em league!) as the survival rules clearly indicate a pick of the Raiders. My buddy at STATS, LLC tells me the fantasy gods will themselves be slamming BLLs in celebration as the now-Mark-Sanchez-less Jets continue playing suck-ass football at the Coliseum. At least Jets' fans won't have to pay (a paltry) $29 to watch this one from their couches. Hurricane BLL moxie Packers."

Commish says: I literally lol'd. This is excellent work. If everyone read tthe comments as thoroughly as you did, we'd be making progress on global poverty, climate change AND returning the Chargers to San Diego.

@BigDaddy (Rams): "Kirk Cousins needs to rally this team or John Gruden is toast. Torched by his own resurgent Dumpster Fire -- the Rams open 2-0 and the LA Memorial Coleseum has quickly become home to two national powerhouses."

Commish says: It's Jay, Dad. But I like the double powerhouse Coliseum bit!

@chrisboland62 (Seahawks): "Considering I might move to Seattle for a job relocation, this pick makes the most sense to me. God damnit I'm going to miss New York Pizza and New Jersey Bagel Pork Roll Egg and Cheese sandwiches..."

Commish says: Can you please institute the Chris Boland New Jersey Bagel Pork Roll Egg and Cheese Sandwich pick of the week? The "CEEB-ENGE-BUP-RECS-POW". Thanks, man.

@ckingtcu (Raiders): "I'm convinced that Marshawn Lynch only came out of retirement to stage a coup to keep the team in the broke city by the Bay. Lynch will bring a kidnapped Roger Goodell out to midfield and threaten to give him Mark Davis' haircut unless he vetoes the move to Las Vegas. Goodell folds like a cheap lawn chair and so many Skittles are thrown toward the field that it clouds out the Sun like the arrows in 300. Raiders win 300-0."

Commish says: Can someone make this movie? Seriously. Just put up a kickstarter with this description and nothing else. (Do you need a video? Just record yourself saying "Hi" with a photo of beastmode in front of the camera.) It'll raise $5M in a day.

@crice103 (Ravens): "Last week you featured @nedairanpour's picking of the Chargers. You wrote, "One of my favorite BFIG traditions: Neda has picked the Chargers in the first game every year she's been in the pool - a run that's included games at the Cardinals, at the Chiefs, and now at the Broncos. True fandom!" But whats special to note - and you left this out - is the only year they won was 2015 vs. the Lions when she forgot to sign up on time. Which is why I am picking the Ravens. The Cleveland Indians have won more games in three weeks than the Browns have in five years. We gotta pay for the wedding somehow and the Chargers aren’t gonna do it. Sincerely, @nedairanpour’s fiancee and a lifelong member of the Raider Nation."

Commish says: Forgetting to join BFIG before the Chargers actually win their opener is the most Chargers thing a diehard Chargers fan could do. Given the wedding boost a BFIG title would provide, did you ask Neda if she reaalllllyyy wanted to pick the Chargers this time?

@dsilver07 (Ravens): "Were the Ravens that good or were the Bengals that bad? Let's test it against the Browns???? "

Commish says: This comment looked a LOT better on Thursday afternoon.

@AbbreKadabrederis (Cardinals): "Week 2 is always a trap. We take the single data point that is week 1, extrapolate it out to infinity, and start declaring teams to be GOAT or predicting winless seasons. Week 2 is there to remind everyone, in heart-breaking fashion, that one game does not a team make. That said: does the Colts' pathetic showing in week 1 prove they're one of the worst teams in the league? Of course not. But it's a bad sign. And the QB controversy of Tolzien v. Brissett isn't something you ever want to see. Not that Arizona's situation is great But until they get their starting QB back, it seems that the Colts have....🕶 ... run out of Luck."

Commish says: Yeah but you forgot that it's fun to extrapolate out to infinity. Bradford for MVP! Packers defense #1 DVOA! Jared Goff!!! BORTLEMANIA!!!!!!!

@endofthetown (Cardinals): "I just spent an inexplicable amount of time looking at Scott Tolzien's career stats... and it's all terrible. But he does have 1 career tackle, so he's got that going for him. "

Commish says: ... so he's 1-for-9 in tackling the dude who picked him off?

@James_hunter (Cardinals): "I know, I know, I'm getting cute with my pick. Clearly I should take Oakland who is going to cover the over all by themselves against the New Jersey Propeller Planes. Arizona lost both their game and David Johnson last week. The Colts are probably starting Jacoby Brissett, mostly because he can't possibly play as badly as Tolzien played last week. Record matters more than perception, which means this is just 2 bad teams playing each other and I'm picking the road team. While I'm willing to believe that Wade Phillips can turn any defense into a top 10 unit, I refuse to believe that Jared Goff has magically turned into a superstar. The Luck-less Colts really are that bad. Old Man Palmer has got one more 300+ yard 3+ td game left in him, and it's gonna be this Sunday."

Commish says: This is by far the best "I'm an idiot... but dude, I'm not" pick comment so far this year.

@jaredcrittenden (Cardinals): "This is not a pick for Arizona. They got Cootered in week 1 by a fat, happy and PAID Matt Stafford. They crushed fantasy owners nationwide by getting David Johnson hurt. Larry Fitz is a beauty but he is older than dirt. I'm pretty sure Carson Palmer is using his team issued Virtual Reality goggles to watch porn and not to get mental reps. This is a pick against the Colts. Could the be better with Brissett instead of Tolzien? Certianly. Will it matter? Absolutely not. My first name is Jared and us Jared's have shit luck when it comes to famous Jared's. Jared Leto = stone cold weirdo. Jared from Subway = reprehensible diddler. "He went to Jared" = annoying jingle and a jewelry store for poors. The colts are so bad they made Jared f***ing Goff look like our best hope for a good Jared! 21-29, 306 and a TD for a cool 117.9 QB rating! I know there are no guarantees in BFIG, but I'm taking a dump in a box and marking it guaranteed Arizona win, I've got time. P.s. - if the rumors are true and Luck wants out of Indy, they're going to get a kings ransom for him and take ANOTHER blue chip stud at the top of next years draft. As a Bills fan, I will have no choice but to drive to Indy and punch Jim Irsay right in his pull popping throat if he literally stumbles from Peyton, to Luck to Sam Darnold."

Commish says: If a Jared wins BFIG this year, does he immediately become the world's most impressive Jared? The Jared flag bearer?

@jeffhatchman (Raiders): "Too early to be talking NFL tanking for the #1 pick? Any decent (Jets) tanking monikers this year? Sam Darnold (USC QB): Be Damned for Sam? Be a Sham for Sam? Gargle for Darnold? Goddamn, for Sam? Traffic Jam for Sam? Mason Rudolph (OK St. QB): Be a raisin for Mason? Chewed Off for Rudolph? Booed Off for Rudolph? Blew Off for Rudolph? Josh Rosen (UCLA QB) Get Squashed for Josh? Be Frozen for Rosen? Slosh for Josh? Oh My Gosh for Josh? Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) Crash the Car for Lamar? Fall of the Handlebars for Lamar? Shoot Above Par for Lamar? Take a Waxin' for Jackson What else you got commish? "

Commish says: GARGLE FOR DARNOLD!!!

@PlumdogMillionaire24 (Raiders): "Starting up the Carr this week, like I'd guess pretty much everyone else is. Aside from the juicy -14 point spread, I love Carr's reaction when he found out that Magic Johnson knows who he is: twitter.com/derekcarrqb/status/907289647214030848. Pretty much my response when I made the comments last week - COMMISH KNOWS WHO I AM!!! ::swoon::"

Commish says: Love this. It's like a musician staring out at a giant crowd and having an "Oh shit, we've made it" moment. (Mainly talking about you, but yeah, Derek Carr, as well.)

@ktenney12 (Raiders): "The last few months my sister has been working on assembling our family tree through ancestory.com. She's discovered that my father's family came over from the Netherlands almost 200 years before America gained its independence, and that we had an ancestor who was an undercover spy for the Americans during the revolution. While one of my great great great grandmothers changed her name and country 7 times while in Europe before one day just appearing in the United States with no record of immigration. I bring this up as some people tend to make a lot out judgments based on family and thus thought young Derek Carr was doomed to follow in his brother David's footsteps of failure only in a much wilder way as it was the Raiders. But alas they knew not of the Carrs' storied ancestry! It was not David's DNA that failed him but his having to develop behind an offensive line that allowed an average of approx. 70 sacks a season. The Carr brothers' great great great great great grandfather Thaddeus Hezekiah Carr was a mighty pioneer. He was one of the first to settle in northern Montana where among his many accomplishments he tamed the buffalo and carved a mountain sculpture that bared a heavy resemblance to a decrepit Al Davis. While their great great great grandfather Gen. Ambrose Carr was a master at strategic battlefield planning during the Civil War. Having been able to dedicate his life to studying the history of battle in his mansion. As a young soldier Ambrose was called to Texas to serve at the Alamo but on the way his horse became spooked and random took off. It threw him off its back, when the horse slipped and broke his leg on a slick of oil coming from a previously undiscovered source. The fall broke Ambrose's leg getting him out of the service and allowing him to make his fortune in oil. With genes like this, and Christian Hackenberg on the other side. I can't lose. "

Commish says: Fact: Everyone's great great great great grandfather was named Ambrose

@TheGM (Raiders): "Look, I'm not proud of this pick. It's not bold, it's not sneaky, it doesn't set me up for some beautiful future stratagem. But I haven't been past week 2 before, and I MUST BREAK THIS CURSE!"

Commish says: I've always been comforted by the fact that my awful BFIG record is... better than yours. Maybe I should just pick the same team as you the whole way to ensure that stays true. I NEED SOMETHING!

@mattdicecca (Seahawks): "OK, in another attempt to get into your weekly mentions, I am once again picking the 49ers, and by picking them i mean picking to lose! I believe they have a real opportunity to go win less this year. I have until early November until they play someone twice, so I think I can ride them pretty far. Then once I get mid to late season ill still have KC and the Pats to pick in other match ups if i need it. Feels like a full proof plan to me. Your literally the only person I know of that still loves bud light limes.....try a fine pilsner."

Commish says: "Love" feels like it might be the wrong word, Matt. Honor? Cherish? Revel in? Regularly sacrifice at the altar of the Survival Gods? All in the running.

@ngranuz1 (Raiders): "It's no secret Oakland is one of the better teams in the league, so I wanted to save them until the end of the season (or at least for when things get dicey in week 10), but then it hit me.... If I pretend the season starts week 17 and proactively pick games in reverse, then all of a sudden Week 2 becomes the "last week of the season". I carried out this exercise, and do you know who I had left available when it was all said and done...Oakland baby! Patience truly is a virtue"

Commish says: I like this strategy! Acutally, who am I kidding? It's been years since I've had a BFIG strategy (other than "WRITE EMAILS")

@njjohnson14 (Raiders): "Why am I nervous about this pick? It should be a lock... But history has shown i.e. the surviorpocolypse of 2015 that there are no guarantees. I have not had enough Bud Light Lime today to go against the grain."

Commish says: Spoken like a man who has seen the darkness and lived to tell about it. One of the victorious teams in 2015's survivorpocalypse? The Jets. BTW, how many BLLs does it take to go against the grain? 11.5?

@spencerpipkin (Titans): "I bet the Commish will raise his eyebrows with this one, but I couldn't be more confident with this pick and my boys in baby blue. I said it before we lost in Week 1, and I'll say it again. This is the #YearOfTheTitans. Silly Jaguars, the Texans are for kids.. This is what happens when you play a real team. #roasted"

Commish says: If your predictions (hopes? dreams?) come true, Spencer, can you please start recording videos and/or taking photos of what "YearOfTheTitans" means to you? THANKS.

@turbonox (Seahawks): "I initially picked Oakland at home against the Jets when suddenly I had an epiphany... "Turbonox, you're a mathematician" I thought to myself "why did you pick Oakland?". "Huh?" I said, mistakenly blurting it out loud in front of my startled co-workers. "Whats wrong with Oakland? they have the largest spread of any of the matches (tied with Seattle), they are playing at home, against the Jets for god's sake!". But my subconscious wouldn't relent. "Turbonox, you're a mathematician" it repeated, "why did you pick Oakland?". Now I was getting annoyed. "I TOLD YOU BECAUSE THEY ARE PLAYING THE FREAKIN' JETS!" I shouted, using full caps-lock in my head. "Look closer." my subconscious calmly replied. So I looked closer, but I didn't see anything. "no, look even closer...". So I looked even closer, half expecting my subconscious to shove my head violently into the computer screen and run off guffawing hysterically like a school child. Again I didn't see anything. But just when I was about to walk away in frustration I saw it! "I'm a mathematician, why did I pick Oakland!" I spent over $100,000 to get one of the finest educations in the nation and I was picking my teams like every other peon with a degree in art history! You see, everyone seemed to be setting their picks based on probabilities. That is not surprising considering this seems to be a game of numbers. The more skilled among us do take into consideration other factors, such as future value of a team since a team can't be picked more than once. But few of us were using the most basic of decision making tools... E[x], the expected value function! And that's when I realized I had to switch my pick to Seattle. You see, the Seahawks and the Raiders both had a very similar probability of winning, lets call it 95% ( I wouldn't put it any higher than that, "any given Sunday blah blah blah"). The thing is, survivorgrid.com is showing that more than 50% of people across many pools are picking Oakland, while only 20% are picking Seattle. That's not surprising because SEA has a lot more "future value" ("FV") than OAK because they have more solid match-ups in the future than OAK does. However... Lets look at a few possible scenarios for week 2. Lets say both SEA and OAK win, that has a 90.25% chance of happening (.95^2) then picking either SEA or OAK really doesn't matter much. Had I picked OAK I would have slightly better "FV" but in the grand scheme of things, with around 5000 people still in the pool (70% having survived picking OAK or SEA plus other survivors) my chances of winning are about 1 in 5010 (or 0.01996%, slightly worse than 1 in 5000 because some of the survivors have a slight "FV" bonus for not wasting SEA). If I picked OAK maybe they would have been improved to 1/4990 (or 0.02004%). Now lets look at the probability that the team I picked wins and the team I don't pick loses, that has a 4.75% chance of happening (.95 x .05). In that case, if I had picked OAK then there are around 4000 people left (20% got knocked out picking SEA) and my odds of winning the whole thing would be around 1 in 4000 (or .025%, there is no "FV" bonus here because most people who survived picked OAK too), however, had I picked SEA there would have only been 2500 people left (50% got knocked out by picking OAK) and thus my chances of winning the whole thing is about 1 in 2500 (or .04%, again no "FV" loss because most people who would have had that "FV" bonus got knocked out picking OAK). Of course there is a 5% chance that whoever I pick will lose and then the chances of me winning the whole thing is 0.00%. This covers all possible scenarios (90.25% + 4.75% + 5.00% = 100% of all scenarios). Now let's calculate expected value: Picking OAK = (90.75% x 0.02004%) + (4.75% x .025%) + (5.00% x 0.00%) = 0.0193% x $50,000 = $9.64 Picking SEA = (90.75% x 0.01996%) + (4.75% x .04%) + (5.00% x 0.00%) = 0.0199% x $50,000 = $9.96 Picking SEA clearly pays off more than picking OAK! Q.E.D"

Commish says: That was some fine logic, Turbonox. (HOLD UP. Give me a moment...) Hey Turbonox, does spread = win probability? I'm not sure it does. Vegas knows fans overbet some teams and underbet others. Vegas knows fans overvalue home field advantage for some and undervalue it for others. Vegas bends to the whims of sharp bettors with deep pockets who want to put six figures on a game. Are you SURE Oakland and Seattle have the same win probability? If you presume survivor players are smarter than the average football watcher, then shouldn't there be a reason Oakland has ~3x Seattle's picks? How much does the win probability need to shift for your EV to now favor Oakland? LOVE YOU TURBONOX!!!

@wagnerj900 (Ravens): "What a lopsided week: 10 teams are favored by 5.5 or better, including two teams by 14! And I hate all of them. Sure, Seattle is good and San Fran sucks, but you're still breaking a survival rule by picking that one. Yes, Oakland is good and the Jets are awful. Ok, no way this one goes south right? Famous last words for 3000+ people if this ends up being a majority pick. The other games? The bengals by 6.5, they looked terrible last week. Cards by 7.5? On the road, lost their best player. Bucs by 7? Didn't play last week, still don't know if they can stop anybody. AND the bears made a game out of it against the Falcons. So I'm doing what I do best, picking against the Browns. Yes, the team that eliminated me last season with their sole win of the year. And yes it's against the Ravens, the team who knocked me out in 2015. And sure, it's a division game, but it's a home game, against the Browns. Surely you're allowed to break all the rules and still survive against the Browns, right? RIGHT?!?!? "

Commish says: Dude, you hate a LOT of teams!

@jrock08 (Ravens): "This week I learned my favorite fact about the Browns. With last week's win, Big Ben surpassed former Browns QB and current guy you wouldn't recognize on the street Derek Anderson and is now the winningest QB in FirstEnergy Stadium, that's right, the Browns haven't even had and kept a league average QB for the 3 seasons it would take to rack up 12 wins."

Commish says: One of the cruelest stats I've heard in all my years doing this

@dclas (Raiders): "I got the Raiders this week. My pre-wife does "Useless City Facts with Britt" so I'll let her explain this one for me."

Commish says: This is the first time I've ever heard "pre-wife" and "pre-husband" and it is glorious. How does it feel being the BFIG red-headed stepchild of your relationship, @dclas? Or is it more like a high, high honor?

@RotoJeff (Buccaneers): "About that KC pick last week .... I'd love to say I had some special insight that the Pats couldn't block Justin Houston, cover Tyreek Hill or match up against Kareem Hunt. But instead, it was a total misclick, hurrying to get my selection in before the Thursday game. So now ... am I pot-committed to pulling a Costanza and doing the opposite of what I intended to do each week? No, I don't have the guts to pull that off."

Commish says: You are a most honorable man, Jeff. You could easily have told the whole SZN world that you were a football prophet. Though, going with the sparsely picked Bucs in Week 2 means you're still living far away from the crowd. Keep it up, man!

@TimTebowsBible (Raiders): "The Book of Tebow 1:2 - If the choice is clear, take it. If the D is in prevent, make a comeback. If there is a camera on you, drop to one knee and pray... Oakland by a shit ton"

Commish says: Please tell me this is a weekly feature

@617pats (Raiders): "Brett farve ain't gunna drink as many BLL's as me if i go out week 2..."

Commish says: Do you have confirmation that Brett Favre drinks BLLs? Is Favre secretly shading this pool? IS FAVRE IN THIS POOL?!?

@mcmullin3 (Seahawks): "The way that Seattle O-line looked, it’s only a matter of time until Russell Wilson is decapitated. I’m using my Seattle pick early while he is still amongst the living. This will go against my tried and true method of picking against the Jets, but I’ll survive somehow. "

Commish says: This might be an effective way to get management to heed fan sentiment. Just get tons of people wearing "In memory of Russell Wilson" shirts, or "I cheer for Russell, not Seattle. #RIP" shirts with photos of Wilson getting sacked.

@SarahLTVB13 (Jaguars): "They are truly dog doo doo so that's why I gotta pick this crap! "

Commish says: I just really wanted to feature a Jaguars pick. This comment explains so much about Jaguars picks!

@ekahn93 (Ravens): "Let me just start by saying I hate Chip Kelly. The fact that I have to see him Saturdays AND Sundays on ESPN now makes my heart hurt and my blood boil. I am from Philadelphia. Kelly pushed back the Eagles chances of being real title contenders by years with his haphazard, BS, moneyball style moves that didn’t work out for literally anyone it touched. It was the worst massacre in Philadelphia’s history since Ben Franklin single handedly fought off the entire British army – the only American casualty being the Liberty Bell that cracked when he used his superhuman speed to dodge the bullet coming at him. Someone check my facts on that but that’s how I remember learning it in school. Kelly was hired in 2013, thus making me want to forget all things from that year, including a Super Bowl victory by Joe Flacco and the Ravens – so I’ve heard............................. Is Joe Flacco elite? The question that has been echoing from the crab cake shacks on the Chesapeake, to the headphones of sports podcasts, to the crowded streets of Newark Delaware (shout out Falcco’s alma mater UD). With a Super Bowl win, followed by a dismal 3 seasons, it really is a fair question. Since I have chosen to forget 2013 as a whole, I only remember a mediocre and overpaid Flacco from his 2014 campaign until today. Playing the Browns won’t prove either way, but good quarterbacks – nay – elite quarterbacks take advantage of bad teams. I expect a massacre so brutal that Ben Franklin would raise a crab cake in the air as a sign of respect. I want Chip Kelly to call in sick next week because he is still weak in the knees from watching such a beating – a feeling he has only felt from the perspective of the one that took the beating. 100 – 7 Ravens over Browns. "

Commish says: I have never met anyone in my life who hates anything more than the Kahns hate Chip Kelly. I actually searched back through PICKS emails to see if this Chip Kelly evisceration was a repeat of @Jmkahn's from last year. Nope. I bet you guys write a new DIE CHIP KELLY DIE... love letter?... every week.

@GreenBowbPackers (Seahawks): "Tough to choose between the Bucs, Raiders, and Seahawks. But teams coming off a loss to the Packers are undefeated in 2017, so the pick is obvious: Seattle. "

Commish says: Please, please make this your BFIG strategy. The Falcons play the Lions in Week 3.

@Ostated (Ravens): "This is my first year in the BFIG. Week two and I'm already having a Britney Spears type meltdown like its 2007 all over again. Do I pick the obvious and waste a good team like Oakland on the NY Jets? The browns gave the steelers a run for their money last week, so does that strategy still work of betting against them? Well I sure hope so because that's my pick, lets go Baltimore! Now leave me alone while I go shave my head, crush a bakers dozen of the finest apple cider donuts and wash them all down with a keg of BLL. "

Commish says: For the record, first person to actually do this and document the legendary achievement gets featured pick comments for life (in addition to the viral video that'll rack up at least 4 billion views).

@Admking (Raiders): "A lot of people think you need to save the top teams for later in the season. But as Woody Paige would say, "You gotta look at the schedule!" Oakland's schedule is BRUTAL!! Playing in the toughest division in football (my opinion) and playing the 2nd toughest division as their NFC partner. So you want to make sure you use a good team like Oakland and it feels like it's either this or Week 8 @Buffalo. And let's be honest...if the Jets travel 3 time zones and beat a high flying Raiders offense in their home opener, then this just wasn't meant to be! Biggest no-brainer of the season. It's the RAAAAIIIIIIDDERS (Chris Berman voice)."

Commish says: Wait, Woody Paige thinks the Raiders pick is a good idea? F***.

@deanstate (Bengals): "The Bengals are my Browns, they will always break your heart and lose with every reason in the world to win. So I must use them when they have an exceptional opportunity to win. Jesus, going in with both eyes closed. Packer in Seattle Dean"

Commish says: Has anyone talked to Dean since Thursday? Commish is worried about Dean.

@aarslovin (Bengals): "Complete homer pick. I am the idiot that sat through more than two and a half hours of the absolute beat down the Ravens put on the Bengals last week at lovely Paul Brown Stadium. I have literally not seen the Bengals play worse in the last 12 years. It was terrible. Dalton looked like a rookie who was thrown into a game as a backup with an offensive line that is completely inept. I'm hoping law of averages help me out this week and I am trying to save the Raiders until later in the year (even though I will likely only be picking in the 2nd chance pool starting soon)."

Commish says: And Aaron, too. Does anyone know Aaron? Commish wants to check up on him.

@branflakecereal (Panthers): "I don't care how many BLL's you have in you, thinking the Bills are decent after sneaking by the Jets is folly. Panthers in a 0 Fat, 0 Carb Yogurt powered rout."

Commish says: I'm featuring this for your username. And the phrase "0 fat, 0 carb yogurt-powered rout."

@My_Dog_Made_These_Picks (Raiders): "Are we supposed to pick the next city to lose their franchise?"

Commish says: I'm featuring this for your username!

@Bruce_Arians_Driving_Cap (Raiders): "I am The Night King"

Commish says: I'm featuring this for your username!!!

@ShredItBro (Raiders): "I love you"

Commish says: LOVE YOU, TOO, BRO. WHAT'S YOUR NAME? (Also, we're getting close...)

@procrastibader (Lions): "Giants are a hot tub of shit."

Commish says: Getting closer...

@pmenchini (Ravens): "Getting a text message from SZN that I forgot to set my pick was invigorating. Can we set up functionality to just auto-pick Browns opponent by responding with that poop emoji?"

Commish says: Annnnnd that'll do it for this week! (Also: WORKING ON IT, MAN.) Good luck everyone!

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