@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have never had a losing NFL betting season. We have no idea how. Each week, we rank the best survivor picks.
BigDaddy: BigDaddy's bringing up the fricken rear end here.
Commish: Yes. You're in last (scores below). I kicked your ass last week, Dad.
BD: Boy, I guess.
C: What happened?
BD: You gotta nail your top picks and I missed my #2 and my #4. You hit your first 9?!
C: I'm en fuego. Why'd you put the Bengals #2 last week?
BD: If you're a Cincinnati fan, all of a sudden maybe you're wishing you were a Cleveland fan. The Browns have more of a future than the Bengals.
C: Damn, Dad. That's heavy. Are you sure you want to make that statement?
BD: Before the season starts, they see two home games off the bat and they're thinking, "We're gonna make a statement by beating Baltimore, then we're just gonna roll the Texans in Week 2." Instead, they're staring at a trip to Lambeau and 0-3.
C: All they're gonna have is a Week 2 BigDaddy vote of confidence
BD: And they won't even be able to enjoy their cheese curds.
We power rank the favorites - teams with a Vegas line next to them. Power rank ties broken by number of people ranking a game higher. Your #1 pick winning earns you 16 points. Your #16 pick winning earns you 1 point.
Last week: Commish 114 points, LibbySims 96, BigDaddy 87
This season: Commish 205, LibbySims 192, BigDaddy 173
Home team in caps below
#1: PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
Average ranking: 3.0; @LibbySims' top pick
BD: I've spoken my piece about Cincy.
C: I have this ranked sixth. I've been jaded by the Packers' early season performance the last five years. So this doubles as a "they'll be a better pick later on" ranking. Clearly you and Mom don't agree.
BD: They beat a good Seattle team in Week 1.
C: I don't trust them until someone pisses Rodgers off or McCarthy realizes he might finally lose his job. Have I mentioned McCarthy needs to lose his job? Let it be noted I've been saying this for three years now.
BD: You're a grumpy old man.
C: Thanks, Dad.
#2: Steelers (-7.5) over BEARS
Average ranking: 3.0; @TheCommish's top pick
BD: You've got Pittsburgh #1. The Steelers, Green Bay, and the Patriots are the three so-called locks this week. But beyond that, I don't think anyone else is a lock.
C: I don't want to use the Patriots. I don't trust the Packers. Some would say you throw Miami into your trifecta of locks, but I don't know enough about Miami to back them in a divisional game on the road.
#3: PATRIOTS (-13) over Texans
Average rank: 3.0; @BigDaddy's top pick
C: You're thinking this is the week to expend the Patriots, huh?
BD: Because they're playing Houston. At home. They didn't like losing Week 1.
C: Yeah, but you'd be comfortable using them now, knowing you can't use 'em again?
BD: People might start looking at this list this week - with the big favorites also being the powerhouses - and say, 'Well, I'm gonna start saving these teams,' and boom. They're out. Got too cute.
C: Bam.
BD: Boom.
#4: Dolphins (-6) over JETS
Average rank: 5.7
BD: You said you were wary of the Fins in a divisional game on the road. But you still have 'em #2.
C: Yeah, I mean, you've sensed my theme: I don't love many games this week. But I watched enough of that Jets-Raiders game. The Jets have given up *11* plays of 20 yards or more in their first two weeks.
BD: That's not good.
#6: Ravens (-4) over JAGUARS
Average rank: 7.0
C: You're the outlier here, Dad. Mom and I both have the Ravens at #4.
BD: The Jags have showed me some glimpses. They almost beat the Packers in Week 1 last year.
C: But that's always the case. If we could rename them, they'd be the Jacksonville Glimpses, powered by BORTLEMANIA!!
BD: What'd they go, 8-8 last year?
C: They went 3-13.
BD: Hmm. Well, they'll do better this year.
#8: Broncos (-3) over BILLS
Average rank: 7.0
C: Once again, we're way apart. You have the Broncos up at #3. Is Denver really good, or is Buffalo really bad?
BD: I think Denver's really good. They'll go in there and beat 'em.
C: Talk about lucking into a solid NFL starter, if Siemian keeps this up. No one believed in him until this year. 7th round draft pick, third stringer, draft Lynch above him, attempt to sign Osweiler, Lynch given another chance this preseason to be the starter...
And now, we jump around to the games we find interesting and/or where we have a large ranking difference...
#12: Falcons (-3.5) over LIONS
Average rank: 12.0; @Commish and @BigDaddy are 8 ranks apart
BD: I'd put the Falcons up there with the top AFC teams.
C: So then why do you have the Falcons as your #15?
BD: After the Lions win over Eli's boys, I mean... I've always liked Jim Caldwell. I think he got run out of Indy so they could promote Chuck Pagano. Pagano gets one good year out of Caldwell's guys, then tanks.
C: You've always loved Jim Caldwell. Why?
BD: He's kinda that quiet, self-assured guy. Just a solid head coach. Doesn't get flustered. Doesn't get agitated. Doesn't chew on guys. He's kept that team together.
C: He's kinda the BigDaddy of NFL coaches.
BD: (Laughs)
C: If you and Jim Caldwell were grilling out, what do you think his order would be?
BD: He's probably a ribs guy. Some hush puppies. Because those are kinda good. Some coleslaw.
C: You don't grill coleslaw.
BD: I can't get good coleslaw these days. I can see the Lions winning this week. Atlanta is gonna have to resist the letdown.
C: If the Lions win, that changes the entire perception of that team.
BD: Pretty boy Dan Quinn.
C: You've got a new pretty boy each week.
#16: Browns (-1.5) over COLTS
Average rank: 13.3; @TheCommish's bottom pick
BD: I wanna talk Browns. You've got the Browns as your #16 game. Why so low?
C: That's the toilet bowl of all toilet bowls. What would you name that game?
BD: The Colts play at Lucas Oil Stadium, so maybe it's the Oil Bowl.
C: That's solid, but it doesn't even feel harsh enough.
BD: What the hell's happened to the AFC? They've got arguably the worst five teams.
C: The Browns, the Colts, the Bengals...
BD: The Jets
C: What do you think the Jets record is gonna be this year?
BD: They could go donut 16.
C: Is donut 16 better than 1-15 because then you at least have a donut?
BD: I mean, they're both really bad. I suppose one win is some consolation.
C: A win is some consolation, but you know what else is consulation? A donut.
BD: I had a donut for breakfast.
C: Yeah, you love donuts. What do you think Jim Caldwell's favorite donut is?
BD: He's probably a sprinkle guy. Raised glazed with that pink frosting and sprinkles.
C: Jim Caldwell could probably sell a lot of donuts if he beats Atlanta.
#9: Rams (-2.5) over NINERS
Average rank: 10.0
C: Are you off the Rams bandwagon? (Note: The Rams knocked @BigDaddy out of BFIG last week.)
BD: Divisional game. I think the Niners are better than what their record shows. I like some moves their GM has made.
C: You said the same thing in Week 1 and Week 2.
BD: Who's their quarterback?
C: Brian Hoyer. Brian Axel Hoyer.
BD: (Laughs)
C: You also asked me that in Week 1. You have some blind faith in the Niners here.
#15: TITANS (-2.5) over Seahawks
Average rank: 13.0; @Commish's upset pick; @LibbySims' bottom pick
BD: I think the Titans are pretty good.
C: I think Seattle's gonna win.
BD: Whoa. What makes you think they're gonna win? Are they gonna score some defensive touchdowns?
C: Seattle starts slow like the Packers, and they've still got a really good defense.
#11: Cowboys (-3) over CARDINALS
Average rank: 11.3
BD: These games are boring.
C: Can we talk about Cleveland being favored in a game for the first time since 2015.
BD: CBS used to show Colts games all the time. They had the superstar quarterback. Glitzy team. Now I can't imagine they want any Colts games shown.
C: The Browns are 0-2, 1-17 dating back to last season, on the road, with a rookie quarterback who turned it over, like 5 times last week. And they're favored.
BD: A new standard for mediocrity.
C: Would you watch Browns-Colts if Jim Caldwell was coaching?
BD: Probably. Yeah.
C: I think Jim Caldwell selling donuts would net higher ratings.