@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have never had a losing NFL betting season. We have no idea how. Commish's mom, @LibbySims, is the family's best picker. She doesn't bet. She probably should.
Commish: You're still in last place, Dad. What's been your Achilles' Heel?
BigDaddy: I'm up against some really good competition.
C: I don't think that's true. The last few weeks have been rough. Favorites losing all over the place. Are you gonna change your strategy?
BD: I don't really have a strategy.
We power rank the favorites - teams with a Vegas line next to them. Power rank ties broken by number of people ranking a game better. Your #1 pick winning earns you as many points as there are games (e.g. 16 in a full week). Your bottom pick winning earns you 1 point.
Last week: LibbySims 88 points, Commish 79, BigDaddy 67
This season: Commish 348 points, LibbySims 343, BigDaddy 311
Home team in caps below
#1: EAGLES (-6.5) over Cardinals
Average ranking: 1.7; Commish's top pick
C: Any reason to be concerned about this game?
BD: Arizona doesn't impress me. They won last week on a fluke. Though, if you're down late in a game, Carson Palmer is a guy you want on your roster. He finds a way to pull games...
C: Out of his ass?
BD: He's had a long career. You throw it up there for Larry Fitzgerald to make a play... he's talking about retirement. I hope he never retires. I'd pay good admission to see him play.
C: Even if he's 55?
BD: Ya. I hope he plays till 60. He used to be a water boy on Denny Green's Vikings teams
#2: STEELERS (-8.5) over Jaguars
Average ranking: 2.0; LibbySims' top pick
C: Looks like you're off the Jaguars bandwagon.
BD: Pittsburgh's just a more well-rounded team. But if Big Ben doesn't have a good game, they lose. If he throws 3 picks, they lose. Pittsburgh's built that way. New England's built that way. Green Bay. Seattle.
C: You know who's really good at throwing a bunch of picks?
BD: Flacco.
C: I was going for the BORTLEMANIA joke, Dad.
BD: I guess that's more appropriate for this matchup.
#3: Titans (-3) over DOLPHINS
Average rank: 4.0
C: Who's easier to make fun of than Jay Cutler?
BD: I'm sure he's regretting his decision to come back.
C: He has 10 million reasons not to regret it.
BD: His deal is 10 million guaranteed?
C: Who's easier to make fun of?
BD: Well, you've got Jay Cutler or... or... wooo, boy.
C: C'mon. Who?
BD: There's nobody easier to make fun of than Jay Cutler. Start with his name.
C: What's wrong with his name?
BD: Jaaayyyyy
@LibbySims, from the living room: (Rolling in laughter)
BD: Guy's had more career fumbles than any quarterback in the modern era, and he's still out there fumbling every week
C: Was that stat according to BigDaddy Stats, LLC?
BD: I pulled that one out of my ass.
#4: Patriots (-5.5) over BUCS
Average rank: 4.7; BigDaddy's top pick
C: For the third week in a row, New England is your top pick. If the Pats weren't the Pats, they would have been favored by 6 last week over Carolina. Not 9. And this week they'd be favored by 2 or 3."
BD: Would I bet on New England if I had to give up 5.5 points? No. But I'd pick them to win every time. Belichick will find a way to correct that defense. You watch. Last year it was their offense that had to be fixed, and Belichick figured it out. Somehow, someway that little shitty Edelsting makes a phenomenal catch in the Super Bowl to win. They have the biggest horseshoe up their ass of any team I've ever known.
C: There's absolutely nothing I can add to that. We're gonna let that stand.
BD: Joe Edelstein should have never made that catch.
@LibbySims, from the living room: (Rolling in laughter)
BD: OK, not Joe. Kind of a pretty boy first name, though. What is it?
C: Again, I'm adding nothing. This was perfect.
#5: Chiefs (-1.5) over TEXANS
Average rank: 5.7
C: I can't believe a game with a 1.5-point spread is our #5 rank. This is one of the hardest survivor weeks I've ever seen.
BD: This game's gonna be fun. Houston has the most dynamic young player to come in years.
C: The most dynamic since lean Eddie Lacy?
BD: Don't you think Deshaun Watson is exciting?
C: I think RGIII and Jake Locker and plenty of others were good for a few games, too.
BD: He's a pass-first quarterback that can run with the best of 'em vs. a run-first quarterback that can also throw. Think of all the run-first flame-outs: RGIII, Locker, Vince Young, Mike Vick...
C: Brando Weeden.
BD: Yup.
C: I'm kidding, Dad.
#6: COLTS (-1.5) over Niners
Average rank: 6.7
C: How much money would you need to watch the entirety of Niners-Colts?
BD: I was listening to the radio Sunday and the only thing people talk about with the Colts is when Luck will be healthy.
C: It's the only thing that gives Colts' fans hope.
BD: They ran Jim Caldwell out of dodge, and this is what they got.
C: Your boy!!
BD: Yup. Jim Caldwell. Has ice in his veins. Not Cold-well. Cald-well.
C: Niners-Colts, or 60 straight minutes of Jay Cutler fumble highlights?
BD: I'd take the fumble highlights. You'd probably be able to do a full 60 minutes. And you could run the tape backwards and it'd still look like a bunch of fumbles.
#7: GIANTS (-3.5) over Chargers
Average rank: 7.0
C: Looks like you still have some faith in the Giants (his #5 pick)
BD: No, it's their opponent. But I mean, the Giants aren't gonna go donut 16.
C: There's rumors the Chargers might look to go back to San Diego.
BD: What?
C: They can't even fill half of a soccer stadium with their own fans.
BD: So what? They go back and continue to play in that dump? They should consider completely relocating to another state.
C: Or just become the NFL's experimental franchise. Pay the players a little more to put up with it. Who wouldn't want to watch Philip Rivers quarterbacking the Beijing Chargers and losing his shit on every play because he'd secretly never been outside the U.S. and has no idea what's going on? Right? RIGHT?!
#8: Vikings (-3) over BEARS
Average rank: 7.7; BigDaddy's bottom pick, but a top-5 pick for Commish and LibbySims
BD: I think Minnesota is snakebitten. Injuries. Bad kickers. No dependable quarterback. And the Bears are starting their rookie. Minnesota also has a terrible record in Chicago. A little inside information there.
C: You're on fire today, Dad.
BD: Why do you have it so high?
C: I don't buy into rookie quarterback hype, as a general rule. Sometimes it hurts me, like with Dak last year. But usually it serves me well.
#10: LIONS (-3) over Panthers
Average rank: 9.3
C: You said last week that Detroit's gonna challenge for the NFC North.
BD: They find ways to win when they shouldn't. To win the North, you gotta win a few games on the road you shouldn't have won. Last week was like that for the Lions. The Vikings dropped three interceptions. The Vikings fumbled a bunch.
C: So that's why you only have 'em #10? They're a challenger but not a frontrunner?
BD: Ya.
C: If Jim Caldwell was listening right now, what would you tell him?
BD: I'd tell him, "Try to keep the other team down because you should be able to count on 28 points a game. Focus on solid fundamental defense and don't turn the ball over. You'll win 10 games at least."
C: That was a far more serious speech than I was expecting.
#12: COWBOYS (-2) over Packers
Average rank: 11.7
C: Favre today admitted to some media personality that he always wanted to play for the Cowboys.
BD: Well, he's from Kiln. He's from down south.
C: The Cowboys just made life miserable for us in the 90s.
BD: They sure did.
C: I remember, I think after the '95 loss in the NFC Championship game, which was our third straight year losing to the Cowboys in the playoffs... pretty sure I cried after that game.
BD: I think there's gonna be a lot of money bet on Dallas in this game. They're only giving up 2? That's just inviting a ton of money.
C: There'd be no more fitting scenario for 2017 Packers fandom than to be 4-1 with victories over Seattle and Dallas, and still have no confidence in our team.
BD: (Laughs) Yeah. Much of that is reinforced by the team we lost to being the team we just don't match up against. How the f*** did Atlanta lose to Buffalo at home?
C: Or, you know, just McCarthy, and years of excruciating playoff losses. But hey, we could be watching Niners-Colts or Jets-Browns.
BD: Or Joe Edelsting.
C: Or Joe Edelsting.
#14: BROWNS (-2) over Jets
Average rank: 12.7; Commish's bottom pick
C: Speaking of Jets-Browns...
BD: Whew. I'd rather watch San Francisco at Indy. You don't believe in Cleveland at all, huh?
C: I mean, how can anyone profess to have any conviction at all on this game? This game is the easiest and best opportunity in a decade to identify every single degenerate gambler in America.