@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have never had a losing NFL betting season. We have no idea how. Commish's mom, @LibbySims, is the family's best picker. She doesn't bet. She probably should.
Commish: This week stands in stark contrast to last week. We're going from diabolically difficult to, what, five games with at least a 9.5 point favorite?
BigDaddy: I've stopped putting much credence in the lines. It's been an extremely challenging betting year. I look at the matchups and, even if they're favored by 10 points - that's a lot of points - I'm asking how much faith I have in them. Something's gotta shake out here.
C: Of the 26 teams who have played five games, 17 are 3-2 or 2-3
BD: Ya. And the bottom 8 teams in the league are bad. Cleveland's bad. San Francisco is bad. Miami's bad. The Giants are bad. The Jets are bad.
C: The Jets are 3-2!
BD: Yeah but they're bad.
C: You're not buying into "records matter more than perception this year?"
BD: Who have the Jets beaten? At Cleveland, Jags at home, Miami at home.
C: Not a murderer's row, but they're still 3-2. You know who else is 3-2? The Lions are 3-2. If Jim Caldwell was coaching the Jets, would you feel differently about them?
BD: Absolutely. Cool Hand Luke Jim Caldwell. He'd probably own the Meadowlands he'd be so well-liked.
C: He'd own the stadium or the entire Meadowlands?
BD: Ya. All of it.
We power rank the favorites - teams with a Vegas line next to them. Power rank ties broken by number of people ranking a game better. Your #1 pick winning earns you as many points as there are games (e.g. 16 in a full week). Your bottom pick winning earns you 1 point.
Last week: LibbySims 56 points, Commish 54, BigDaddy 54
This season: Commish 402 points, LibbySims 399, BigDaddy 365
Home team in caps below
#1: FALCONS (-11) over Dolphins
Average ranking: 2.0; BigDaddy and LibbySims' top pick
BD: Atlanta was off last week. They're rested and a force to deal with. I hope somebody knocks 'em off before the Packers have to play them again.
C: I don't think Jay Cutler's gonna be the one to knock 'em off.
BD: If I had Atlanta left in BFIG, I might take them this week. You don't want to wait too long. Defenses get better game planning and scheming as the year goes on. So take your opportunity here with an elite offense. How many are left in BFIG?
C: Just about 1,000 are left.
BD: Amazing. So I think you go with your best team, or best matchup available. That's this one this week.
C: I can't argue with that, but there is a view that we have a much better grasp on who's bad and who's good now. And so, survivor losses will start happening at a slower clip. That's been true most years.
BD: Still taking the Falcons here.
#2: WASHINGTON (-10) over San Francisco
Average ranking: 3.0; Commish's top pick
BD: Still not on the Washington bandwagon here. It's just a matter of time before San Francisco starts winning games. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say San Francisco's gonna go 8-8.
C: (Bursts out laughing) What?!?
BD: Why are you laughing? I mean, let's see, they're 1-4 right now...
C: They're 0-5.
BD: OK, well, they're gonna have a winning record in their remaining games. So they'll be 6-10.
C: What on Earth gives you confidence in the 49ers?
BD: John Lynch.
C: Yes, you've been clear on that from the start... but where has that shown? I mean, maybe you haven't been able to watch many games, but Dad... they're bad!
BD: And they play in a shitty stadium. You'd think they could put some more dollars into that stadium. It looks like the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, Minnesota.
C: When was the Met built?
BD: I think 1959? It was built for baseball. Then they shoehorned the Vikings into it. The 49ers stadium is not very good looking.
C: I really hope someone forwards this shit to Jed York. They're filling, like, 30 percent of their seats.
BD: Are they really? Shit. So they've lost their core fan base. Not wise.
C: So do you still think the Niners are going 6-5 over their last 11?
BD: Yup.
C: There's no one quite like you.
#3: TEXANS (-10) over Browns
Average rank: 4.3
C: I have to imagine this has been the hardest season yet for Browns fans.
BD: Notre Dame quarterbacks - they just don't make it. This guy has a little more potential, but I mean... did they trade up to pick this guy?
C: No, but they passed over Deshaun Watson twice.
BD: It's now, more than ever, a quarterback's league. That's part of this year's wackiness - all the QB injuries. Look at the teams who've lost their quarterback, and they're in a tailspin. Titans and Mariota. Raiders and Carr. The Vikings are fortunate to not be 2-3.
C: The counterpoint is the Jags. They're winning because they're having Blake Bortles throw the ball as few times as possible.
BD: Blake might just be coming into his own. What is it, his fifth year in the league?
C: He's bad, Dad. Anyway, is there any scenario where the Browns win this game?
BD: (Long pause...) No. Like I said last week, Watson's good for two throwing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. That's enough to beat Cleveland.
#4: BRONCOS (-12) over Giants
Average rank: 4.7; BigDaddy has it down at #8
BD: I'd like to put a little money on the Giants this week.
C: That's... bold.
BD: They almost won last week. They're getting better. I know Odell is gone, but...
C: They're entire receiving corps is gone.
BD: Is Victor Cruz gone?
C: If by gone you mean he hasn't been on their team in a few years, then yes.
BD: Denver can't score 12 points. They're challenged offensively.
C: Well, they've definitely been up and down. Their defense is still good, but their offense is hit or miss.
BD: I think the Giants will make this a game.
#5: RAVENS (-7) over Bears
Average rank: 6.3; Commish has it down at #12
C: You weren't impressed by the Bears on Monday night.
BD: Nope. But they're gonna win more games than not with this Truzinsky. Trubinsky. Where did Trubitzky play?
C: Mitchell Trubisky played at North Carolina. I don't have much faith in the Ravens offense, and I think the Bears' defense is decent.
BD: The Bears gotta get their running back going again to have a shot.
#6: Patriots (-9.5) over JETS
Average rank: 6.7
C: Who's enjoying this season more: Pats fans or Jets fans?
BD: Jets fans. If I'm a Jets fan, I'm thinking, you know, this is our year to dethrone the damn Pats. It's the lunchbox mentality. Roll up your sleeves, put your overalls on. We're gonna go down to the Meadowlands and we're gonna WOMP the pretty boys from Boston.
C: Each week, I'm going to add nothing to your comments on the Pats games. They're perfect.
#7: Packers (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Average rank: 6.7
C: Are we gonna go to this game?
BD: We are.
C: Should we tell people how to find us?
BD: Sure!
C: What would you say to somebody who walked up to you and said, "BigDaddy, I'm a huge fan"?
BD: (Laughs) Well... I mean... I guess I'd say thank you!
#8: CHIEFS (-4) over Steelers
Average rank: 7.0; Commish's #2 pick but LibbySims' bottom pick
C: Last week, and I quote: "If Big Ben doesn't have a good game, they lose. If the throws three picks, they lose. Pittsburgh's built that way." Soooo, how about five picks?
BD: Heh, people just didn't read deeply enough into our power rankings. Roethlisberger can't avoid a rush anymore. Why did the Packers win last week? Their quarterback was able to avoid the rush. Fatty can't avoid the rush.
C: Did you just call him fatty?
BD: That's Mom's term. She calls him fatty. But, I mean, there's not much distinction between his neck and his head anymore. It's like a goalpost. Probably 12 inches around. I think he's 25 pounds too heavy.
C: I think his neck probably has a bigger circumference than that.
BD: It looks like Kansas City's year, but, hey, Pittsburgh can turn it around at any time.
LibbySims, from the living room: Last week was an embarrassing loss. Their coach will shake them up and fatty is going to turn it around.
C: That is quite the upset call. I had this game fifth and thought I was confident. You one-upped me here, Dad.
BD: I'm on the Andy Reid bandwagon.
C: It's been a tough betting year, but if you've just ridden the Chiefs every week, you're rollin' in it right now.
#10: Bucs (-2) over CARDINALS
Average rank: 10.3; Commish's #6 but BigDaddy's bottom pick
C: Why is this your last ranked game?
BD: Arizona can win games at the end. It's the only way they can win games, but they can still win 'em.
C: So it's the whole, "Carson Palmer pulls games out of his ass" thing again.
BD: Yup!
#11: SAINTS (-4.5) over Lions
Average rank: 10.7
C: I was gonna say you don't have proper confidence in your favorite coach... then I saw they're your upset pick.
BD: Look out for Detroit.
C: Can we make you a shirt about Jim Caldwell?
BD: Yeah. Maybe we can put a Georgia bulldog on the front - for Stafford - and Jim Caldwell's face on my back with the words "GET ON MY BACK!!!"
C: ...
BD: Not sure that's my best work.
C: You're gonna sell millions of 'em.
#12: JAGS (-2.5) over Rams
Average rank: 11.0
BD: This is gonna be a good barometer of these up-and-coming teams. Athletic teams. I wouldn't go see the Niners play, but I'd pay to see Jacksonville play this year.
C: If this game ends 5-3, I won't be surprised. If it's 39-38, I won't be surprised.