Brothers and Sisters of the White Laces,
Commish's four most valuable possessions are his dad's box of Lambeau Field dirt, the patch of skin that shook Aaron Rodgers' hand, whatever jar of peanut butter is currently in the cupboard, and the Excel file containing every BFIG pick this planet has ever seen.
The "ALL-TIME PICKS" file is the most bountiful well Commish has ever drank from. And it's time we had ourselves a drink...
- We're down to 395 people in BFIG - 6.3 percent of the starting pool.
- 6.3 percent is the third-lowest survivor rate at this juncture, ahead of 2012's 5.3 percent and 2015's 1.6 percent.
- The best Week 8 survival rates belong to 2009 (34.8%) and 2016 (22.4%).
- Yes, the survivor pendulum SWINGS.
- Despite a lower survivor rate at this point, 2012 still went to a playoffs tiebreaker. 2015, in contrast, ended in Week 11. (Those years were still 1 pick/week throughout.)
- Of the 395 survivors, 208 are SZN vets (53%) and 187 are rookies (47%).
- Seven people who went 17-0 last year are still alive this year. That makes it 24 straight BFIG wins for @ericpf11, @collinmurph22, @tcarey01, @Cjwalk, @slickash1, @Mdisraeli, and our 2016 champ, @nbossert
- So we're clear how hard that is, only 88 people in the history of BFIG have more than 24 total wins.
- Commish has been doing this since 2009 and he has 22 wins.
- If @nbossert wins again, he's buying me a refurbished Ford Pinto with the number 12 on one side, 4 on the other side, and an impossibly bright Bud Light Lime racing stripe down the middle. Got it, @nbossert? Glad we're on the same page, man.
- @kcrihn and @ncrosby10's seven wins have come by a TOTAL of 23 points (3.3 points/game). They're tied for the lowest margin of victory (MoV) thus far.
- On the opposite end, @Irishjustin has a 146 MoV and @Rugre is at 144.
- Our MoV season record is 294 set by @j8choi in 2016.
- We have three 2009 BFIG originals still alive: @ryandisraeli, @jsturner5, and @JimmyP.
- @ryandisraeli is T6 on our all-time BFIG wins leaderboard, with 44. There's currently a tie on top, with @aaron, @kensofer, @rhettbollinger, and @tylerhannasch all at 48 wins.
- Favorite pick line 1: @moeazam4, who picked the Raiders, Colts, Bengals, and Jets in four consecutive weeks (2 through 5).
- Favorite pick line 2: @Rhoadhouse, who might be in the best position of anyone with BUF-BAL-LAR-CIN-IND-HOU-TEN
- If I missed a killer pick line, reply and let me know!
ONWARD!
Third Chance starts in Week 11 (it's FREE for you), and this is how it'll go: We start with just 1 pick in Week 11, then two picks in Week 12, then 3, 3, 3, 3, 5.
The reason? Surviving is fun, and this will (hopefully) get more of us picking longer. Week 17's five picks ensures we crown a single champ because, you know, no damn ties.
Join BRANDO!!! (Third Chance) Survivor >>
Commish will let you know when picks are open!
We started with... 436 people in BFIG and 948 people in Second Chance. The Titans (41%, over the Browns), Cowboys (23%, over the Niners), and Saints (15%, over the Packers) were our big picks.
Then Week 7 happened...
And we're left with... 395 survivors in BFIG and 777 survivors in Second Chance. Our 91.9% BFIG winning percentage ranks second this year (Week 2, 96.3%), which resulted from the multi-week trend of underdogs cleaning house ending. Favorites won 13 of 15 games.
Commish: How are you feeling about your new fame, BigDaddy?
BigDaddy: A lot of people watched it! Next time you should do a celebrity appearance.
C: I'm not sure you understand how this works. You are the celebrity, Dad.
#1: EAGLES (-13) over Niners
Average ranking: 1.7; Commish and BigDaddy's top pick
C: Are you off the Niners train?
BD: Not as much as I'm on the Philly train. That guy Wentz can pass. He hangs in the pocket. I'm impressed.
C: The Niners lost by 30 at home, Dad.
BD: It's an easy #1 choice this week.
C: If you were John Lynch, is Shanahan the right coaching hire, or would you hire somebody else?
BD: Their problem isn't the coach. Their problem is they don't really have any skilled players.
C: That is quite the problem.
#2: PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers
Average ranking: 3.3; LibbySims' top pick
C: What should make somebody wary of this game?
BD: In the past, I think the Chargers have done well when going east. They've pulled some upsets going east. Since they don't have a home anymore, what better than cozying up in New England and getting a Sunday win.
C: What's your level of confidence in that Chargers stat?
BD: I don't know. But it's not worth 7 points.
C: (The Chargers are 2-7 on trips east of the Rockies since 2015.) Probably not, but the Chargers have won three in a row, and they're a few missed field goals away from being 5-2.
#3: BENGALS (-10) over Colts
Average ranking: 4.0
C: Surprises me you have this down at #5. Why so low?
BD: Old carrot top there didn't have a good game the other night in Pittsburgh. He looks depressed out there. Zero animation. That was their biggest game of the year, and Dalton looked like pine cone out there.
C: ... Yes. Exactly my thought. A pine cone.
BD: So, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose this game.
C: Your argument is convincing, but the Bengals have a big thing going for them: They aren't the Colts.
#4: Falcons (-4.5) over JETS
Average ranking: 4.7
C: We said this last week: Other than the Packers game, the Falcons haven't looked good this year.
BD: Yeah, but they'll beat the Jets.
C: What makes you so sure?! I have 'em at #8 because they haven't shown us reason to be confident.
BD: They're better than Jets. But man, I wouldn't want to be playing the Jets.
C: ...
BD: Yeah I probably have this one ranked a little too high.
#5: CHIEFS (-7) over Broncos
Average ranking: 5.3
C: You were down on the Chiefs last week - we called that one - and you're down on 'em again this week. What's the story?
BD: Denver has a history of going in to Kansas City and winning. Denver needs a marquee win here, and this could be it.
C: You know Peyton Manning is no longer the Denver quarterback, right?
BD: Ya. The guy from Northwestern. He's their quarterback.
C: Right, and he's not very good.
#6: Vikings (-9.5) over Browns, in London
Average ranking: 5.7
C: What would Minnesota fans do if they lost this game to Cleveland?
BD: People in Minneapolis were tailgating from 7am till 10pm last Sunday. But Vikings fans are always waiting for the other shoe to drop. They're superstitious as all get-out. If they lose to Cleveland in London, they might not show up to the next home game.
#7: SAINTS (-9) over Bears
Average ranking: 7.0
C: Despite this being the third-highest line, we're all low on this one. I said it last week: Chicago has a good defense. Sure enough, they absolutely shut down Carolina.
BD: And New Orleans is Jekyll and Hyde. They're good only because their quarterback gets rid of the ball and doesn't take sacks.
C: You could also say the Bears are good only because their quarterback doesn't actually attempt any passes... and thus also doesn't take sacks.
BD: Trubitsky ... Truzinsky
C: I have faith you'll get there eventually.
C: Any other thoughts, Dad?
BD: Houston will beat Seattle. Houston has a good quarterback.
C: Do you think their quarterback is better than Seattle's quarterback?
BD: No.
C: ...
BD: In time, I think he will be. Just not yet. I also like Washington against Dallas.
