Discussion
<< Back to post list

BFIG PICKS: Week 9

by @TheCommish 🏈  NFL Free ⚡

BFIG PICKS image: Week 9

Friends who could likely make a trade for A.J. McCarron,

Commish writes a lot about stats. About BFIG history. About storylines to watch. About Moxie and glory and legend.

But sometimes something so transcendent occurs... something greater than the sum of all NFL parts to this point... that Commish must stop everything and pay homage to the greatest NFL event of our lifetimes.

That event? #JetsDanceToEverything

The New York Jets were supposed to be awful. Sub-Brownsy. Maybe the worst team of this decade. Instead, they're 4-5, have been competitive in nearly every game, and almost certainly more fun than whatever team you root for.

While disposing of the Bills on Thursday (lowering BFIG's alive count to 367), the Jets defense decided to have some of that fun during a commercial break.

Video got out. The internet took hold. And what's resulted is Commish's shining light in a dark and confusing 2017 NFL season:

Happy Sunday, you're welcome, and Commish loves you as no one else does.

WEEK 9 PICKS AND FAST FACTS

Your group pages show you picks for just that group

FAST FACTS:

  • New Orleans is our top pick in both pools: 45 percent in BFIG and 24 percent in Second Chance
  • Whoaaaaaa huge gap. Danger alert?
  • Aside from the standard "well, yes" - because any BFIG/SC gap that large should be cause for concern - history should also make Saints backers a little nervous
  • Week 2, 2015. 1,976 survivors marched forward with clear eyes and full hearts. 1,037 of them (52%) placed their faith in the supposedly good New Orleans Saints, at home, against what looked to be an absolute wreck of a Bucs team. Jameis Winston was awful in his first-ever start.
  • Naturally, the Bucs were up 23-7 after three quarters and hung on for the upset win, serving up one of the only majority pick losses in BFIG history.
  • The storyline today is pretty much the same. We think the Saints are pretty good. We think the Bucs are a wreck. The game's in New Orleans. It's almost a majority pick. SURVIVALGODSPEED MY FRIENDS.
  • BFIG's next four picks: Jags (15%, vs. Bengals), Rams (8%, at Giants), Bills (7%, RIP), Seahawks (7%, vs. Washington), and Texans (7%, vs. Colts)
  • Second Chance liked Seattle a lot more (22%), and also picked two highly used BFIG teams in a way BFIGers literally weren't able to (Oakland 7%, Philly 6%)
  • For the first time all year, no one picked against the Browns. The Browns are on a bye.
  • Two people picked Rodgers-less Green Bay and I love them.
Week 9 pick distribution

WEEK 9 AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

@Clarkgordon (49ers): "The Browns aren't playing this week and the niners are at home against the Cardinals, who may or may not be playing Blaine Gabbert at QB this week. CJ Beathard will probably start again making that possibly the worst QB matchup of the decade. I do not have the balls to pick a Stanton/Gabbert squad and am therefore going with the next best option - picking against the Colts. Texans by 90. Well f***, he's hurt, going with the Niners. Dear god, wish me luck."

Commish says: You, sir, are a HERO. This is one of the greatest Moxie picks in BFIG history. I will be rooting for the 49ers on your behalf (and on @JT_Marlin's behalf). You have your eyes where they should be: On becoming legend. I will not stop waxing on. I will not cease the adulation. ALL HAIL @CLARKGORDON!!!

Commish Communication Award

@KyleCorto (Bills, Second Chance): "Every single week I look forward to this moment that I can make my BFIG pick. The reason? Because I am able to proclaim, "F*** BIG BEN". I suspect this new guy (not much of a sports fan) in the office who sits next to me thinks I absolutely despise our coworker Benjamin. To be fair, Benjamin doesn't shy away from the Halloween candy in the office so the nickname could make some sense. But I could never dislike my coworker Benjamin as much as I do Ben Roethlisberger for single handedly crushing my hopes and dreams of winning the BFIG Survivor Pool. For now, I will let this poor new guy sitting next to me continue to think that I hate our coworker. Until next week, F*** BIG BEN."

Commish says: I'm so pissed off at the other Bills backers (see below) for ruining your Second Chance dreams, because I got SO excited at the prospect of an incognito video by your other coworker next week, zooming in on (less) Big Ben's face as you screamed "F*** BIG BEN!!!" in the office. Third Chance starts in Week 11. Can we make this happen please?

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

@Twert23 (Rams): "Conventional wisdom says West Coast Teams can't travel East and win often. NYG are due it says. The Rams are not the most consistent team! Who the hell cares! I'm picking them because their helmets don't match the uniform! I'm picking them because picking against a team is stupid, and I am probably stupid! But mostly, I'm picking against the G-men because I just don't like them. And the Rams are better than the Giants this year. And conventional wisdom is for assholes who think they know football! And there is no knowing this game!"

Commish says: I WILL FOLLOW YOU. I WILL FOLLOW YOU TO FREEDOM!!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

@Ken5100 (Bills, Second Chance): "Second guessing myself on the Jags and rolling with the Bills. This breaks a ton of rules. Divisional road game, Thursday game, but f*** it, let's do this thing Bills Mafia!!!! "

Commish says: *Smacks forehead* *SMACKS FOREHEAD* Commish loves you, @Ken5100, because you know the rules and have a respect for BFIG history. Alas, this is a perfect moment to reiterate said golden survival rules: 1) Avoid divisional games; 2) Avoid road teams; 3) Avoid any game involving Eli Manning; 4) Records matter more than perception; 5) Beware of small sample sizes; 6) Don't anger the Survival Gods; 7) Drink BLL.

MORE PICK COMMENTS

@wwwong (Bills): "Yawn. Looked ahead. I think we'll have a 80%+ survivor rate until week 12."

Commish says: This is what happens when you anger the Survival Gods. Do not anger the Survival Gods.

@50kricher (Bills): "If Buffalo comes thru tonight for me....I. WILL. BE. CHAMP. p.s. - GO Bears and the packers suck."

Commish says: Do we see why the Bills lost now? THIS SHIT ISN'T COINCIDENTAL.

@stursiegel (Saints): "I hate this week. Reminds me of week 2, 2015. I (along with over half of BFIG) picked the Saints over the Bucs; we all know what happened next. I don't know if I can pull the trigger. "

Commish says: Things that get you auto-featured: 1) Exceptional Packers reference, 2) Absurd home video, 3) Picking a lame fight with Commish, and 4) ANY historical BFIG reference!

@clownbaby30 (Bills): "I have moxie. You could say I am the definition of moxie. I regularly swim less than 30 minutes after eating. I've run with scissors and lived to tell about it. I frequently disregard the five second rule if I drop food. And this week I'm taking the Bills on the road."

Commish says: AND I STILL LOVE YOU. LONG LIVE YOUR MOXIE YOU GOOD, GOOD CLOWNBABY.

@cthompy (Saints): "As a Vikings fan, I have grown to dislike Sean Payton, and the Saints organization over the years. Maybe because I think the Vikings should have beaten them back in the 2009 NFC Championship game, but Favre did what Favre does best, making an errant throw across the field which ended up being intercepted, and the Saints went marching on to their 1st Super Bowl victory. 2009 was supposed to be our year. A crucial turnover like that one will decide Sunday's game, and with Jameis not looking 100%, I have to put my feelings aside, and give the nod to the Saints to win the turnover battle and get the W. P.S. this may be in the running for this week's "Most Vikings Fan Comment" award."

Commish says: Most Vikings Fan Comment award!!!

@jkeller11 (Cardinals, Second Chance): "Probably will be the only one following this game closely."

Commish says: BFIG badge of honor: Requesting the trashiest trash game, involving two non-local teams, be put on a sports bar's best TV. THIS IS YOUR TIME TO SHINE.

@mcavoy21 (Saints, Second Chance): "So is this what BFIG life is like with a good Browns team?"

Commish says: The Browns have six all-time BFIG wins. Six. In nine seasons. I'm not sure what BFIG life is like with a good Browns team.

@TheGM (Rams, Second Chance): "GOFF is officially short for GOING-OFF. And I believe in my little heart that GOFF is gonna GOFF all over these damn Giants."

Commish says: This was awful, @TheGM. I loved it.

@suckitspanos (Bills, Second Chance): "This week is like picking the best furry turd out of the shit pile"

Commish says: The Bills were way too furry. Tooooooo furry.

@bbroeker6 (Saints): "WTF is everyone going to do with the Browns on bye? Can you really feel that good about taking the Cardinals over the 49ers?"

Commish says: I'd love to dedicate an hour-long podcast to interviewing Anti-Browns survivors, discussing approaches to the Browns' bye week. "Sound logic, but level with me here: Have there been moments of sheer panic this week?"

@Mgarz013 (Saints): "No Browns game = 93.74% chance I blow this pick"

Commish says: Guest 1: @Mgarz013!

@codered707 (Saints): "Oh shit do the Browns have a bye week? God help us all!"

Commish says: Guest 2: @codered707!!

@ktiernan14 (Seahawks): "Browns are on a bye week. I have a bad feeling about this..."

Commish says: Guest 3: @ktiernan14!!!

@kyleejvz (Saints, Second Chance): "Browns bye week = I'm a lost soul."

Commish says: We have too many guests. Close the phone lines. Lock the door. Take down the Free BLL sign.

@judigregry (Eagles): "I still can’t bring myself to pick my Saints. Memories of the 1990s, bags, 6-0 starting seasons that lead to missing playoffs, and the 1200 person knock out in week 2 still haunt me. "

Commish says: BFIG HISTORY!!

@rlchewning (Lions): "Lions!"

Commish says: Packers!

@sommerszg (Rams): "I owe Deshaun Watson an apology. I initially picked against Jacoby and used my BFIG comment to beg him not to smite me. Instead, in a classic tactic of psychological warfare, Jacoby exacted his revenge on another, making me watch in the process. Deshaun has been to made to bear the brunt of my sins. Obviously, as a result, I owe it to the universe to change my pick. And so I choose to fire up Car Ramrod. JACOBY"

Commish says: It's unclear to me why your pick comments aren't just links to you doing absurd things wearing absurd homemade JACOBY tshirts. Can we fix this? Thx.

@trentbhouse (Rams): "Jared Goff was a meme a year ago for futility and now I'm relying on him to beat Eli Manning in New York. It's not ideal but I can't do anything with Blake Bortles or the Jaguars, because of namely Blake Bortles and the Jaguars."

Commish says: Your 2017 NFL!!

@SkoalDaddy (Saints): "As my choices dwindle, my logic gets fuzzier.... 1. Stassi Schroeder is by far the best character on vanderpump rules. Each year I eagerly anticipate the drama that ruins her birthday more than I anticipate my own birthday. 2. Stassi is originally from New Orleans 3. Everyone fears disappointing Stassi except her on again/off again boyfriend Patrick. Therefore the New Orleans Saints also fear dissapointinf Stassi and will beat Tampa Bay."

Commish says: I don't even know what Vanderpump Rules is, but I REALLY hope the Browns' next quarterback is named Bruno Vanderpump

@Cjwalk (Saints): "One thing I try to do is stay away from divisional matchups; two teams that know each other very well and the game usually ends up being a slugfest. I also try to stay away from a west coast team traveling to the east for an early Sunday game. So naturally, I came down to deciding between the Saints beating a below average Bucs team and the Rams traveling to New Jersey to take on my abysmal New York Football Giants. I’m going against my own rules for picking and those rules have awarded me 25 straight correct picks since last season which was my inaugural year in the BFIG. I’m going Saints because I think they’re the better of the two teams. Also, Eli still has that upset special talent of a right arm and he’ll finally have a true NFL WR to throw to in weeks with Shepard coming back from injury."

Commish says: 25-straight BFIG wins is absurd. Commish has 22 wins... in NINE seasons. You're good, @Cjwalk, but start preparing yourself for the "I am mortal" BFIG moment... again and again and again. Unless you're immortal... in which case, can you get your buddy Brett Favre in the pool please?

@Admking (Titans): "I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. "

Commish says: Yeah but @BigDaddy loves it, so it's cool. Relax.

@randolphtravis (Seahawks, Second Chance): "I want to bring up how I believe this is a lock. @Bigdaddy said there may be stats that point the Redskins to being the better team. Maybe the first couple weeks. Seattle/Washington are completely different teams now. Bank on a Seattle win and also bank on them winning the NFC championship game."

Commish says: I think you should have called @BigDaddy and challenged him to a verbal deathmatch. It's what the people would have wanted. Give the people what they want, man.

@wagnerjpaul (Saints, Second Chance): "For 9 in a row: if the Saints win, this confirms the Vikes will be playing in Minneapolis for the Super Bowl come February. "

Commish says: Paul writes this every week. Hi, Paul!

@tacc22 (Bills, Second Chance): "I see Peyton Manning is calling himself the Commish. Ha! We know who the real Commish is."

Commish says: HE DID WHAT? This cannot stand. Who here knows Peyton? Someone knows Peyton. Please arrange a meeting. Promptly. The safety and sanity of the universe depends on it.

@Tbinns (Eagles, Second Chance): "What a tough week this week. The obvious pick is the Texans. I was going to pick the Texans...then I discovered I had already picked the Texans. The Browns are off this week, so can’t pick against them (same as the Bears). Of course, the 49ers are next, but the 49ers with a new QB and playing against the Cards without a QB. Who is left? Oh, the Rams...in New York, coming off a bye. So, the ol adage of west coast teams, playing early games on the east coast, screams trap game. Both the Seahawks and the Redskins are capable of winning any week, so against one another, I’ll avoid that. Who are the real Ravens? Who the hell knows anymore. Should I go game by game the rest of the way? Nah, I’ll let the Commish do that. At the end of the day, the Broncos offense is laughable at best. The Eagles have been every bit as good as their record indicates. Now they have a star running back. They’ll be able to grind away even one of the best defenses in the league now. So, Eagles, are my stone cold, lead pipe lock of the week."

Commish says: (FURIOUSLY NODS HEAD)

@OJ4MVP (Saints, Second Chance): "Why is there nowhere called simply "Orleans" or even "Old Orleans" Commish? I've asked the gumbo monster (I call him Gumby) that lives in my bathroom mirror cabinet thing, right next to my lady razor (it's easier to shave my pits, ok?!?!). Anyways me and Gumby were chatting about our recent dividends from our international portfolio and he told me to pick the Browns this week, so me and him don't talk anymore."

Commish says: I have no idea what's going on here but I LIKE IT.

@Reiffleman (Saints, Second Chance): "Damn. I really want to stick with my Houston pick, even with Watson out, cuz well.....Indy sucks. And when will I ever get a chance to use Houston again? Never. But I can't do it - chicken $h1t. In an attempt to appease the football gods, I'll audible to another hurricane-stricken city and go with the Saints. "

Commish says: FIND YOUR INNER ANTI-CHICKEN SHIT, @Reiffleman. FIND IT!

@ktenney12 (Seahawks, Second Chance): "Like most weeks this season, excluding last week, the slate of games this week presented several decent choices and no great ones. Needless to say I found myself conflicted and struggling to make a pick, looking for any sort of sign to guide me. I found that sign the other night at approximately 3:30a.m. while I was struggling to sleep due to severe back spasms and scrolling through the guide, looking for something to watch on TV. That’s when I came across it, the Da Vinci Code, practically an ode to signs, clues, and puzzles. One of the main clues Tom Hanks uses in the movie is the sequence of Fibonacci numbers. I figured if the numbers were good enough to help Tom Hanks and his awful haircut find the Holy Grail, they’re also good enough to help me and my receding hairline make a BFIG pick. Recalling that the first two numbers in the sequence were 1 & 1, I knew I was on to something. I would pick from a game that involved one football team playing another football team, already things were correlating. Then as I scanned through this week’s schedule, I saw it, a football game that spoke to me and aligned with the Fibonacci numbers like it was Mercury in retrograde. Seattle vs. Washington. One team from Washington D.C. traveling to play a team in Washington. The one-to-one ratio (and fact that Washington was our first president) were almost too much to ignore. Yet, the signs were still appearing. The next numbers in the sequence are, 2, 3, 5, and 8. The game would feature 2 quarterbacks from the 2012 draft. The two QBs will be wearing numbers 3 and 8 and playing on the 5th of November. I mean do I really need to say more? Yet, the connections do not stop there! The next number is 13, and classic Seattle based sitcom Frasier ended on May 13, 2004. And if that wasn’t enough, there’s still more. The next number is 21, and the Space Needle, the symbol of Seattle, was built by none other than a group that hosted the world’s fair, called Century 21 Exposition. After 21, our next Fibonacci number is 34, which I have interpreted as a sign that the Seahawks will win while scoring 34 points against Kirk Cousins and the Washington Deadskins. So as you can clearly see, this code cracking and fool proof logic has led me to feel all but assured that I will be moving on to week 10. Unless the BFIG and NFL are like Lost and all the clues turn out to be meaningless and we’ve all just been dead the whole time. If that’s the case my feeling about moving on to next week are not so positive. "

Commish says: If Seattle wins while scoring 34 points then please make a Super Bowl prediction, score included, in next week's pick. I will go pool together $20,000 for us to make a collective wager that will blow up the sports Twittersphere.

@SteveMadincea (Packers, Second Chance): "What no Brown’s opponent this week?"

Commish says: I LOVE YOU STEVE

@dhicks772 (Jaguars): "Sacksonville baby! All you other twats are going to pick them when they play the Browns, who they should beat the shit out of but will inevitably lose to, because jaguars. Plus now I can get drunk and cheer against all the major favorites this weekend - DUUUUVVVAAAALLLLLL"

Commish says: More comments from you. MORE!

@evmadson (Rams): "We have to work onI try to get u you jk ii l"

Commish says: MORE FROM YOU, TOO. (That'll do it for this week. Good luck, everyone!)

CHECK OUT ALL THE LATEST POSTS AND POLLS HERE

Discussion