Friends in Football,
Week 10 can be summed up as such: The Lions - owners of a BFIG-record 89 percent pick rate - sucked, threatening all former definitions of "catastrophe", then the Browns sucked more and order was restored.
It gets a lot harder from here. So with that in mind, some frontrunner pick lines and important stats, followed by a bold Commish prediction:
- BFIG sits at 277 survivors (4.4 percent of all combatants) through 10 weeks and 11 total picks
- Arguably THE key stat right now is "number of playoff-potential teams still available"
- You can reasonably argue that just 14 teams are in that group. In the NFC, it's the Eagles, Saints, Vikings, Rams, Panthers, Seahawks, Falcons, Cowboys, and Lions. In the AFC, it's the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Jags, Titans, and some mediocre team that'll grab the sixth spot. Love you, Bills fans.
- Of our 277 BFIG survivors, two frontrunners have nine of those 14 teams available: @jab312 and @Ericadeverian
- @Ericadeverian has both the Pats and Steelers available (@jab312 just the Pats), which has to make her the overall frontrunner at this point.
- Her pick line: BUF-BAL-LAR-ARI-PHI- WAS-TEN-CIN-OAK-DET-SEA
- Some more absurd pick lines...
- @sonnybo: BUF-TB-IND-CIN (look at that start!) -PHI-WAS-TEN-MIN-JAX-DET-LAR. Still has six of the nine top Super Bowl favorites left.
- @pmenchini: PIT-BAL-GB-CIN-NYJ- HOU-TEN-MIN-NO-DET-LAR. The consummate anti-Brownser, avoiding Philly in Week 5 could prove to be clutch.
- @rm030: BUF-SEA-GB-ARI-PHI- WAS-MIN-CIN-JAX-DET-TEN. Same availability of the top favorites, but also avoided the Rams last week.
- Five playoff-potential teams sit below 25% availability: Saints (24%), Rams (18%), Seahawks (13%), Eagles (8%), and Lions (6%)
- On the other end, five teams (Chiefs, Falcons, Jags, Panthers, Cowboys) are all above 75% availability and will almost certainly be heavily picked in the coming weeks.
- @gregrubin42 is the only survivor holding two of the three most-used teams (Eagles and Lions).
- Our current 4.4 percent survival rate is down from last year's Week 10 survival count of 371
- Last year, that represented 9.2 percent of our starting pool, en route to a pretty damn cake closing stretch that saw 79 people go 17-0 (and led to this year's two picks/week starting in Week 10)
- Our lowest-ever Week 10 survival rate? 0.0%. The 2011 pool ended in Week 10.
- The rest of our Week 10 survival history: 0.1% (2015), 5.6% (2014), 1.9% (2013), 4.5% (2012), 11.6% (2010), 30.4% (2009)
- Every year we do this, 2009 looks more and more remarkable. As a reminder, we had 46 competitors in our inaugural season. Three made it to Week 17, and one (Josh Huff) went 17-0.
Commish's bold prediction: BFIG will end by Week 14, with the result hinging on the Rodgers-less Packers, Jacoby Brissett, and most importantly, BORTLEMANIA!!!
BELATED WEEK 10 AWARDS AND COMMENTS, BECAUSE COMMISH WAS CERVEZA
That's right. I was cerveza. Now I'm back from my Mexico vacation and you are back from your "where the f*** are my weekly comments?!" hangover. LET'S GO.
Commish Communication Award
@gvb3 (Lions, Rams): "How nice that in the first week where we have to make two picks, we actually only have to make one pick because the Browns are playing on the road."
Commish says: If the Browns are this bad again next year, I'm creating a new award: The "BROWNS 'EM!" Award. It'll be a new thing. Like, "Oh shit! Dude just Brownsed 'em!!!"
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
@jkeller11 (Lions, Rams): "Try telling me that the Lions aren’t going to do everything in their power to have company in the 0-16 club. Not on their watch. Riding the hot hand of Goff and hoping he’s showing what Mitch can be with a new coach in year 2 #10gawd"
Commish says: The only person to call this out! You actually think the OG 0-16s were going to ruin their best chance at NOT being the only 0-16s? C'monnnnnn
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@trentbhouse (Steelers, Patriots): "Hooray, picking not one but two road teams for this week. This reminds me how the Royals would dig deep for ways to spin Brian Bannister not being awful at pitching for them. They settled on Brian Banniste pitches well for the Royals on day games. Find me some stupid stat that justifies my move, Commish! "
Commish says: Stupid stat that justifies your move: BROCKWEILER is 1-0 against other nicknames and 0-900 against everything else.
@joeycasino (Rams, Panthers): "Pouring out a BLL for all those who take the Lions this week, who I assume will be everyone else. THEY GON' LOSE! "
Commish says: GO BUY ANOTHER BLL YOU WASTEFUL NON-MISS CLEO
@eyensky (Lions, Rams): "I owe my aliveness to the commish and the update that Houston's QB went out. It pursuaded me to change my pick from Houston to Philly due to the news. If not, I'd be sitting at home drinking BLL's wondering what if... So, here's to you COMMISH! and when I win this-BLL's coming your way!!"
Commish says: This? THIS? How about "Hey, Commish, 500 BLLs coming your way in the BLL truck I'm buying with my $50K!!!"
@TheGMs_Fiancee (Lions, Panthers): "Can i go 17/17 without picking NE? Damn straight imma try"
Commish says: There isn't a NOBRADY award... but, well, shit. Should there be?
@SkoalDaddy (Lions, Panthers): "In many ways I feel like I've actually already won BFIG. First, my pick comments were selected not once but twice so I had my thoughts on reality TV amplified to a much larger audience than my regular twitter followers. Second, all of my "friends" were eliminated around week 7ish so I'm already a winner in their eyes. It's possible that I was already a winner in their eyes before BFIG but I think it's the competition that has secured their admiration. At this point I feel like I'm playing with house money. House money that could erase my gambling losses for the next few years, but house money nontheless. Why I'm going Lions and Panthers: 1) The Lions are playing the Browns and even with a bye, the Browns are still a dumpster fire. They will manage to get a win this season but it won't (fingers crossed) be against the Lions. 2) This dolphins team worries me because any given (Sun)Monday jay cutler could throw on a nicotine patch, get his head in the game, and absolutely crush it. Kenyan Drake also looked good last weekend and this is a dangerous Miami team. Really I'm just hoping this isn't the week they start to put it all together. 3) Both teams have blue jerseys and everyone knows blue is an excellent color. "
Commish says: Do your "friends" still consider you a friend when you've put their status in quotations? Also, "This is a dangerous Miami team" lol. Good one, "friend."
@mattgic19 (Lions, Rams): "If we make it through this week, what are you going to throw at us next week? Some NBA games, maybe a couple of NCAAF games too? This is too stressful...."
Commish says: I should really sneak in Cleveland Browns @ Golden State Warriors and see how many people pick the Warriors without a second thought...
@KHiles (Steelers, Rams): "My friend (who I actually don’t like, because she’s a Colts fan) says there is zero situation where the Colts win this week. I’m trusting her. "
Commish says: You should ask her to tell you something you don't know. Or to get you an invite to a Jim Irsay party.
@Admking (Lions, Rams): "Now the game really begins. I've shown 0 moxie all season so far and will continue to show 0 moxie for another week. Here's to having no moxie!!!"
Commish says: *Sends as an offering to the survival gods*
@christopherhong (Bears, Panthers; Second Chance): "Currently, the Packers’ depth chart at quarterback is Brett Hundley and Joe Callahan. Because the Packers have an opening at the position, former ESPN NFL reporter Ed Werder decided to do some journalism and ask Brett Favre if he would come out of retirement to replace Rodgers. Brett Favre said no. But there's always next year. And the year after that. And every year until the end of time, because as long as a team needs a quarterback, someone will be there to ask Favre if he’s changed his mind on retirement, only to invariably be told “no.”"
Commish says: I would call Favre, too. I WOULD.
@wagnerj900 (Steelers, Panthers; Second Chance): "I started looking ahead this week, which I feel is the kiss of death for survival pools. I always try to avoid it and take it one week at a time. Survive, and let future me worry about next week. I have a lot of confidence that future me will be able to find a way out of whatever trouble present me creates for him. But since we need to make two picks every week, I felt like present me needs to start doing future me some favors. Still, I feel like the Survival Gods know what I’ve done, and they’re not pleased. I imagine the conversation when they found out going something like this: Me: *Sitting in the corner of my room, lights off, quietly going about my work* Survival God: “Looking ahead at future weeks already? Pretty confident in surviving this week, are you?” Me: “No, Your Magnificence! I was just locking in my picks for this week. Steelers and Panthers.” Survival God: “Hmm, I see? Taking the Steelers and Panthers because you don’t like their matchups the rest of the season.?” Me: “Well, partly, but ----” Survival God: “Aha! So you have been looking ahead! Do you know what you have done to yourself? Me: “I’m sorry, Your Excellence! But both my picks this week are favored by at least 9 points!” Survival God: “It matters not. I’m afraid even the Colts will be able to handle Road Roethlisberger and the Fins will continue to be the best bad/worst good team in the NFL, and both your picks shall lose. And to add even more sting, Cutler will be caught on camera cracking one of his rare stupid smiles to remind you of what you’ve done!” Me: *Sigh* “Is it too late to take it back? Please? I’ll do anything!!!” Survival Gods: *Scattered head shaking, and retreat into darkness* Future me: “Third chance pool starts this week!” "
Commish says: Thank you, Your Magnificence! To what do I owe my survival?!?
@grahamgarland (Lions, Rams; Second Chance): "What if they made a remake of Daddy's Home starring Matt Stafford and Jared Goff? I would definitely also not watch that movie. "
Commish says: Yeah but "Matthew Stafford" is still the most Hollywood name of any starting quarterback. (Right? Can someone do a Hollywood actor quarterback name power rankings?)
@BubbaRoobieDoobieDoo (Lions, Rams): "Cleveland doesn't rock. Houston is Savaged."
Commish says: Featuring this for your username. Not for your puns. But pretty good puns.
HOUSEKEEPING
- Your profile now shows your pick history. Check it out!
- Third Chance's format: Pick 1 team in Week 11, then 2 in Week 12, then 3, 3, 3, 3, and 5 (if needed, in Week 17)
- Add more competitions to your groups to see your group's picks for all SZN competitions
- You can add SZN as a home screen icon like any other app on your phone
- Need a refresher on whom you've referred? Check the "referrals" table on your refer friends page
- Commish and GM play in all SZN competitions, but we can't win any money. This isn't DraftKings amateur hour.
- The Green Bay Packers should fire Mike McCarthy
- The Green Bay Packers will (still, maybe) win the Super Bowl
- Commish loves you