@TheCommish and his dad, @BigDaddy, have never had a losing NFL betting season. We have no idea how. Each week we tell you who should be your survivor pick.
Commish: You're still behind in the standings, though you've made up some ground. Are you gonna make a comeback?
BigDaddy: There's gotta be some divisional upsets for me to make a comeback.
C: So you're gonna call the divisional upsets?
BD: Yeah. Like, Cleveland is gonna beat Cincinnati this week.
C: I'm not sure picking the Browns to win is a sensible comeback strategy.
BD: Why not?
C: Is that a serious question?
BD: And the Lions-Vikings game... well, shit, you've got that even lower than I do.
C: Yeah, I think Detroit wins that game.
BD: What gives you so much confidence in the Lions?
C: I'm not on the Case BEERKEGNUM bandwagon.
BD: And Mike Zimmer isn't yet on the Caldwell Choo Choo.
C: Exactly. No Caldwell Choo Choo, no Commish vote of confidence.
We power rank the favorites - teams with a Vegas line next to them - by who's likeliest to win. Your #1 pick winning earns you as many points as there are games (e.g. 16 in a full week). Your bottom pick winning earns you 1 point.
Last week: Commish 80 points, BigDaddy 79, LibbySims 71
This season: Commish 871 points, LibbySims 856, BigDaddy 838
Home team in caps below
#1: EAGLES (-13.5) over Bears
#2: STEELERS (-14) over Packers
#3: PATRIOTS (-16.5) over Dolphins
Our clear-cut top three picks. Only @BigDaddy has one outside his top 3 (Pats at #6)
C: What would somebody need to offer you to go in on a Packers-Bears-Dolphins parlay?
BD: I think Miami's gonna beat New England.
C: What?!
BD: Miami goes in there at least once every other year and beats New England. Cutler can pull a game out of his ass every now and then.
C: I have no idea what to even say to that. Miami is the worst team in the league by advanced statistics, and almost the worst by point differential. The Patriots could win by 30.
BD: The problem with that parlay is the Packers. You'd have to give me an intravenous drip of Bud Light Lime to parlay those three teams. McCarthy continues to think Brett Hundley is good. The drip would be slow death.
C: Death by Mike McCarthy and Bud Light Lime. The way you always thought it would end.
BD: You know... stuffing turkey and gravy on, kind of a biscuit... it would require a lot of food. I'd need to be put in a food coma to make that bet.
C: Are you sure you're not on intravenous Bud Light Lime right now, Dad?
#4: WASHINGTON (-7) over Giants
Average ranking: 5.3
C: You've got Washington, favored by 7 at home to the Giants, down at #8. Why so low?
BD: Forget Jay Cutler - Eli Manning really pulls games out of his ass. And the Giants are known to go on runs.
C: Fair. By my own survivor golden rules, I should probably never put a game involving Eli Manning in my top 5. Shit.
BD: From way out of his ass.
C: Yes. I'm clear, Dad.
#10: BENGALS (-8.5) over Browns
Average rank: 9.3; Commish has it at #5 while BigDaddy has it down at #11
C: Explain yourself.
BD: Is it... Hugh Hefner is the coach? Hugh... Hugh... whatever. They're on the cusp of winning. They're gonna stick it to Cincinnati, which will make this Marvin Lewis' last season. He's underperformed with a top tier quarterback.
C: To recap, you've predicted Browns victory and Marvin Lewis firing, called Andy Dalton a top-tier quarterback, and pondered whether Hugh Hefner is the coach of the Browns... all in one breath.
BD: What's Hugh's real name?
C: It's Hue Jackson. Hugh Hefner isn't even alive anymore. But I'm proud of you, Dad.
#14: RAVENS (-7) over Texans
Average rank: 13.0; ranked behind six games with lower spreads
BD: We agree on this game. The Ravens aren't nearly as good as they looked last week.
C: The Packers might be the worst team in the league right now. They play the Browns soon, Dad.
BD: See? The Browns might end up with four wins. That would not be good for the Packers.
C: I'm not sure we can call the Packers a professional football team right now. Certainly not a professional football organization.
BD: Then we should probably give them a new name. Is there a synonym for turkey?
C: Gobbler.
BD: The Green Bay Gobblers. Pittsburgh will be feasting on the Gobblers this weekend.
C: A sad, sad feast it will be.