Friends in football,
It is my honor to announce that my SZN partner in crime, The GM, got married yesterday.
It's my dishonor to announce that @TheGMs_Fiancee is woefully late in changing her username. It's also my dishonor to announce that Commish has 6 BFIG wins since 2016, The GM has just 2, and @TheGMs_Fiancee has... 36.
Congrats, you two. Commish loves you, and Commish looks forward to decades of The GM and I getting our asses kicked in BFIG.
Now, Week 6... ONWARD!
WEEK 6 PICKS AND FAST FACTS
Spreadsheet view: BFIG | SC
Group pages show picks for just your group
FAST FACTS:
- The Vikings (35%, 34%) are our top pick in both competitions.
- Minnesota is the first time to achieve this honor twice this year.
- The first time, nothing notable happened at all. Let's move on.
- The Packers (29%) and Texans (23%) round out BFIG's top three, which garnered 88% of our collective BFIG picks.
- That 88% is by far the highest number of the year, meaning this is an excellent time for our first win probabilities!
- History says from this point forward, each team we pick wins its games ~75% of the time. You can argue this parity-riddled year will produce a lower number, but we'll go with history for now.
- At a 75% probability, there's a 34% chance of all three of our top picks surviving.
- There's a 2.7% chance of survivorpocalypse, which... feels higher than it should be.
- By far the likeliest outcome is our three picks going 2-1, which carries a 44% probability.
- Commish does this to illuminate how likely it is that a big pick will go down each week. If that happens this week, we'll be looking at under 400 people left going into Week 7.
- On an unrelated note, how did someone pick the Giants but not the Browns in BFIG? C'monnnnnnn
WEEK 6 AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
The SZN's third most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt and the Haynesworth Hustle Award. You can't win BFIG without showing a little Moxie!
@shannonmbrody (Bengals): "The pressure is getting to me. I have no rhymes ready but let's wing it...... Bangals Better Beat Big Ben Because Bitchy Babe Best Be Braggin! Love, Shannon"
Commish says: I have no idea what this is referring to or how it even rhymes, but... YES BANGALS YES!!!!
Commish Communication Award
Quite simply, this is BFIG's best weekly comment (or three)
@epcahanes (Vikings): "Take a knee, 41 donut, 12 men on the field, Favre across the body INT, Blair Walsh wide left. Knock me out of BFIG as 17 point favorites, what could go wrong with this pick? Skol Vikes!"
Commish says: THE MOST VIKINGS FAN COMMENT OF THE WEEK IS BACK!!!
@thisjustinman (Eagles): "Eli is the vanilla ice cream of QBs. Sure, you're happy that you have ice cream, but Chunky Monkey is a far more desirable flavor. "
Commish says: Wait, who's the Chunky Monkey of QBs?
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL. Can you convince anyone that your pick is the right pick? Then I bet you could sell Bengals tickets, too!
@drewdom (Seahawks): "Jon Gruden about the trip across the pond: "I hope I can make it, honestly. I’m not great. I get claustrophobic. My son was a weightlifter and he won a powerlifting competition in Belarus. I had to fly 14 hours. I had to fly home 14 hours. I had vertigo for a month. I couldn’t even lay down, the house was spinning. I am hoping I don’t get vertigo. I’m not a great traveler. I’ll be honest with you, I hate it. I’m not good. I’m concerned. I’m more worried about that than our goal-line offense right now." No way he coaches his team to a win after that 10+ hour flight."
Commish says: This is the most convincing Bengals Tickets winner of the year. I'm worried about Jon. Can anyone check on Jon?
Definitely Not Concussed Award
Can you teach us something new? No, there are no rules. Just teach us something. Anything. Please?
@jrock08 (Panthers): "I'm currently listening to a podcast about Hawaiian shirts, which are apparently actually called Aloha Shirts, and are back in fashion. Cam Newton clearly loves fashion and like his play sometimes it's perfect and other times it just doesn't work. Alex Smith on the other hand. Well, lets just say if you search Alex Smith Fashion in Google Images you'll find a green, brown, and rust colored Argyle sweater. This is the fashion equivalent of his Monday night performance."
Commish says: Alex Smith's Argyle Sweater just won you an award. Look at it. LOOK AT IT.
THIS WEEK AT THE NORWOODS'
Long the First Family of BFIG Commenting, Rob and Paige have never met a laughably absurd and questionably relevant analogy they didn't love.
@crashfu14 (Packers): "I love Fall. Crisp air, changing of the leaves, survivor pools, holidays on the horizon and best of all… Tiller Days. Our city hosts a grand celebration with a parade and large traveling carnival. Ostensibly it’s a celebration of the city’s considerable maritime heritage, despite being entirely landlocked and possessing absolutely no surface water of any kind. Nothing screams of a proud naval tradition like riding The Centrifuge, held together with zip-ties and warm wishes from the guy wearing an ankle bracelet issued by the parole department. $112 and a bowl of questionable chili later, you’re well on your way to autumnal bliss. Green Bay is a hot mess, but Fall in Lambeau has got to mean something, right?"
Commish says: The new carnival operator has $2 rides on the docket this year. What could go wrong? How much is the chili? Can I join you for Tiller Days?
@rnorwood (Texans): "A lot of people around me are having a good go of things right now. Pieces are really falling into place, and coming up aces. “Hey, I just landed a new job with a car allowance and corner office.” “My startup just got VC funding and we’re turning a serious profit.” Me: “I dropped out of BFIG in Week 1, and just panic-ordered $250 worth of Chinese food.” Give me the Texans. And no, I don’t want to hear all about your kid getting a full-ride scholarship to Stanford. Let me marinate in my own filth and get back to you, maybe."
Commish says: Did you at least use the surplus of Chinese food to host the "Orange County BFIG Early Exit Therapy Group"?
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@katbutt (Bears): "I've never picked an away team IN MY LIFE (a.k.a. my SZN history), so here goes nothin'. Also, this one's for The GM."
Commish says: Cheers to The GM!! Also, I really hope your name is Kat, which would make this one of SZN's better usernames and leave me with all sorts of questions about you. Also also: Considering changing my username to @commishbutt.
@BabyGotDak (Texans): "I do talk shit to the Commish, he doesn't bite."
Commish says: Excellent username. Also: Bring on the shit talk.
@colson (Texans): "I've always wondered this...but is there a team that exists in maybe all of sports that has a bigger "Oh shit, I didn't know their fans really existed" feeling than the Texans? I mean, I see their home games with like 60,000 people in the stadium but has anyone ever REALLY met a Texans fan in real life? I saw a guy in public once in a JJ Watt jersey...I sneezed and then looked up & he was gone. "
Commish says: This feels like part of the "If the free market determined football TV" question. "Coming to you, from Sky Sports OTHER TERRITORIES, it's Texans-Bucs on TUESDAY NIGHT!!
@TheGM (Texans): "Consider this a metaphorical "shot" to celebrate my wedding this weekend. Deshaun, you gotta do me a solid. Gonna make @TheGMs_Fiancee into @TheGMs_Wife."
Commish says: He did it, Deshaun. Now you do it. You better do it.
@Jayhav3 (Vikings): "Kirk Cousins is my cousin. "
Commish says: Really? That would make Kirk's parents your aunt and uncle, right? What are their names? Do they like football? GET THEM IN THE POOL!!!
@LeVeonBell420 (Vikings): "I am a die-hard USC Trojan, and I love Josh Rosen. If you follow recruiting might have heard of this young man, whose mere presence on the UCLA roster was enough to get then-UCLA head coach Jim Mora Jr. (or as a friend of mine's girlfriend aptly put it while asking him to his face, "Are you Diddly-Poo Jr.?") to donate untold amounts of money to the UCLA Bruins football program in August 2015. Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen was born on some fine February morning in sunny Southern California to parents who were undecided whether they wanted their child's full name to read like a law firm or a whiskey distillery, so they said "F--- it, let's just do both." But more on the family. “I come from a wealthy, affluent, educated family,” Rosen told Sports Illustrated. “I mean, not like get-a-Lambo-for-my-16th-birthday- wealthy, but like, affluent." Nice. But I'm not here to give you Josh Rosen's life story, because you already know it — from the 4.3 GPA and 11,175 yards he posted at St. John Bosco, to the Top 10 Pick status he totally, unquestionably earned in last year's NFL Draft. The narrative here is, of course, that Rosen is the next Aaron Rodgers, the "Chosen One." The kind of brash, cocksure and insufferable and immeasurably talented lord of douchery whose post-draft interview could be characterized by one ESPN NFL analyst as "cringeworthy." I'm here to tell you Josh Rosen is misunderstood. Is he a brash, cocky, surefire NFL star who will prove all the doubters wrong? Let's take a look at the numbers: In the three years Rosen was the starting QB at UCLA: - The football team had a record of 18-20. - They won 0 Pac-12 Championships - Rosen spent most of 2016 injured -- we all know that most valued ability: availability. - The Bruins never won a single game against their most bitter rival USC, despite boasting a stable of 5-star recruits who had defected from USC commitments to UCLA (Mique Juarez and Eddie Vanderdoes, to name a couple). The hype of Josh Rosen fizzled out and left the shambles of a school's football program and the employment of Diddly Poo Jr. in its wake. Its current head coach is on his 4th (and probably last) high-profile head coaching job, the coaching equivalent of Britney Spears doing a Las Vegas residency. He came in for his first NFL game as a replacement for Sam Bradford down 16-14, and he just needed to get his team into field goal range to set up a win. Seriously, the win, the narrative, the reversal of fortune was all squared away. He threatened, entering Chicago's 45. It's 4th and 5, the conversion of which would inevitably be the first chapter in a storied NFL career finally coming to fruition. You know the rest: Fate pulled the ball away from Charlie Brown again as Josh Rosen cocked back and threw a stone-cold dime to the hip of a trailing Bryce Callahan. Bears ball, ballgame. So is Josh Rosen really that guy you love to hate yet? Or is he just a lovable loser? Until I see otherwise, I'm going with the latter. My message to Josh this weekend is simple: Please, keep doing what you've always done and just lose, baby. I am trusting you to come through for this USC Trojan football fan, the way you always have."
Commish says: The line "undecided whether they wanted their child's full name to read like a law firm or a whiskey distillery, so they said "F*** it, let's just do both" is among the better artworks this year. Well done.
@ryankempsoos (Packers): "The Packers are like that old friend from college who you haven't seen in years but then messages you on Facebook to meet up for coffee.... you show up and it's just this guy you barely liked to start with trying to get you to invest in his pyramid scheme. He tells you that all you've got to do is pay him a few thousand dollars and you get this piece of paper that says you're part owner in the company... after that you just get three of your friends to become packer fans and then just sit back and watch the money roll in... but after you sign up and write him a check he makes you pay for the coffee, deletes his Facebook and then proceeds to waste the careers of two hall of fame QBs back to back..."
Commish says: You forgot to mention whether your "friend" is named Mike. He has to be Mike, right?
@dfollmer23 (Texans): "Brett Favre would show no mercy to SF so neither will I."
Commish says: In Brett Favre's Packers days, only the refs showed mercy to SF. Jerry Rice fumbled. No, Commish isn't bitter.
@BigBert76 (Chargers): "I think I deserve moxie for picking against the browns at home. "
Commish says: You do have moxie. Not quite Moxie (yet), but moxie. Now, if you explained why you're doing this ghastly anti-Browns act, maybe you'd earn some Bengals tickets.
@mattchat89 (Vikings): "Following the Commish's guide to picks closely, which has proven to be horrible advice...but going with a team at home against what has been a bad team, even though there are a few other games that look a little more enticing. I don't fully trust the Vikings yet, but banking on them being better than they've shown."
Commish says: ... you're still alive. I believe you mean mind-bendingly pristine advice. Commish's only issue is he doesn't follow his own rules, then loses every year in Week 3, and curses himself for not following his own rules. It's a lovely cycle.
@BradyBrown48 (Packers): "With Hurricane Micheal bearing down on the Florida Panhandle, my hurricane preparations included 1. buying beer and 2. making sure my picks are made early in the event that our power goes out. There is absolutely no need to re-evaluate my priorities. "
Commish says: I hope you are safe and YOU, GOOD SIR, HAVE STERLING PRIORITIES
@hockey3430 (Vikings): "I specifically faded the Vikings on the Sunday of carnage to use them this week. I'm frightened about my choice but sometimes you gotta trust the process. If the Vikings lose, I'll never associate with the color purple (the actual color, not the book) ever again. Grapes be damned! Hi mom!"
Commish says: Hi mom! Don't wear purple!!!
@Der1904 (Vikings): "Vikes won’t choke at home as double digits favorites again will they?"
Commish says: Survivor Gods: "Lol."
@BigFurryWookiee (Falcons): "Commish - since you asked, the second e is because I'm a huge nerd. See http://mentalfloss.com/article/72026/its-wookiee-not-wookie-and-other-star-wars-style-guide-tips Also, too many division games this week. I'll take Matty Ice at home with about the same level of confidence as I have when I pick his beer namesake. "
Commish says: 1) Answer my question, get featured; 2) There is no confidence in Bud Ice. Only sorrow. Choose Bud Light Lime and regain your confidence, self-worth, and joy.
@axb613 (Browns): "picking the browns for the first time and never thought I'd ever say that. i hope David Njoku fathers my children"
Commish says: Does anyone know David? Commish is just here to help facilitate all our wildest dreams
@erickfisco (Vikings): "Pick coming at you live from my honeymoon in burgundy "
Commish says: Was your pinkie in the air, Fisco? Did you recruit at least seven sommeliers to join us next SZN?
@jeremy (Vikings): "Saw Bud Light Orange at the store yesterday. Is it safe to drink/shower in?"
Commish says: No. Shield your eyes. Lime is the only color. Lime is your salvation, satiation, and salala.
@mnwildfan79 (Vikings): "I'm rooting for moxie guy from last week. "
Commish says: We all root for the Moxies. They make us proud, give us hope, then win our money. We should learn, but we never do.
@etvedt (Vikings): "Do we dare to dip our toe in the purple colored water?"
Commish says: Only if you dare choke your toe's circulation. (Oh no Commish didn't.)
@Awuwert (Packers): "I could play quarterback better than anything the Niners have in the roster!!"
Commish says: This is false. Unless... Brett? BRETT?!
@billywhiteshoesjohnson (Packers): "IS BRET FAVRE PLAYING?"
Commish says: WHO SAID THIS WAS POSSIBLE? IS HE? CAN IT BE TRUE?!!??!?!!1111!?
@collinevans (Buccaneers): "When I was a kid I used to play NFL Blitz on my PlayStation. I loved that game. And no matter what, I always picked the Buccaneers. I liked the flag, I liked the swagger of a buccaneer. That's what got me here today. "
Commish says: Texans vs. Bucs, LIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT!
@ryovercash (Texans): "The Bills won't do me dirty twice, will they? WILL THEY, COMMISH?!"
Commish says: Survivor Gods: "Lolllllllll"
@antoinewb (Packers): "Commish, they're gonnna win right? I'm trusting you."
Commish says: Green Bay: Second-most picked team in BFIG history; second-most wins in BFIG history. You: Spectacular human for picking the Packers.
@FertileSquirtle (Jaguars): "BOARTULLMAYNEEUHHHHHHHHHHH"
Commish says: YAS YAS YAS!!
@b_b_b_booker (Eagles): "One night an eagle saved my life from a broken heart. "
Commish says: This story and MORE, next week on The SZN...
@dgsaites (Vikings): "Haiku: “I hate the Vikings. Juicy Lucy’s are tasty. But Vikings, barf barf.”"
Commish says: Barf barf dilly dilly!! (And that'll do it for this week. Good luck, everyone!)