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NFL Week 10 Update

by @TheCommish 🏈  NFL Free ⚡

Friends in football,

We've reached Week 10, when BFIG moves to two picks per week and the fun really begins. Perhaps "chaos" or "obliteration" is a better word than "fun", but, you know, to each their own.

Why do we move to two picks at a predetermined time? Because SZN Rule #1: NO DAMN TIES. We crown single champions here. And we don't do the "If there are fewer than X people alive in Week Y, then..." bullshit - you should be able to plan in advance knowing how the competition will go down.

 

MAKE YOUR WEEK 10 PICKS

Historically, Week 10 has been a doozy ever since we moved to 2 picks in 2018. Here are the survival rates:

  • 2018: 18.2% survival (296 survivors down to 54)
  • 2019: 0.8% (1,536 down to 12)
  • 2020: 76.2% (1,758 down to 1,340)
  • 2021: 6.7% (1,290 down to 87)

Three out of the four years we've had a two-pick Week 10, it's been a bloodbath.

And in 2020 - the lone non-bloodbath - we followed up with a 16.6% survival rate in Week 11.

Now here's the fun part: You apply something like 2019's Week 10 survival rate (0.8%) to our current number of BFIG combatants (105) and... you're left with a single champion.

Do I think that's gonna happen? Of course not. But it's not like it's without historical precedent.

On the flip side, our last two weeks have been the most successful two weeks of 2022, as judged by WeeWoo win rate, BFIG survival rate, and basically any other metric you might choose.

The only thing more fitting than continued chaos in Goodell's unpredictability fever dream season would be a pendulum swing all the way back to "ALL the favorites keep winning".

Actually, check that. Unsuccessful high school football coach Jeff Saturday leading his NFL team to the playoffs would maybe be the most fitting thing.

The 2022 NFL, man.

 

BFIG RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We went from 117 to 105 after our second straight week with only one picked team losing (the Bills).

"3 out of 4 is a LOT better than most weeks this year." Four of our most picked games were tied 17-17 deep in the 4th quarter: Vikes-Commanders (final: Vikes 20-17), Titans-Chiefs (final: Chiefs 20-17), Chargers-Falcons (final: Chargers 20-17), and Bills-Jets (final: Jets 20-17). The Bills were the only favorite to lose. (Don't say it Commish... don't say it... ROAD TEAM IN A DIVISIONAL GAME... damnit Commish!!) The Bucs also pulled a rabbit out of the hat late, piling onto a week where the Bills loss was pretty much the only surprising outcome.

 

WEEWOO RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We had our first week with multiple perfect records. Four brave souls - @GangGreen, @Mikeway1555, @Nachman, and @jsbarb11 - split the weekly $2K haul with their 13-0 run including that Jets upset of the Bills.

Chalk finally tastes good. Eight of our top nine favorites won, with only the Bills (picked by 95.2% of us) taking it on the chin. Still, four of those winning favorites - the Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings, and Chargers - could very easily have lost. And you weren't winning the week without pulling the Moxie card on at least one big upset (Jets over Bills). So, don't go thinking you should return to straight chalk picking. DON'T YOU DO IT.

 

FITZMAGIC RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We went from 1,109 to 842, as the Bills loss proved doubly damaging in a two-pick week. Still, our 88.7% pick winning percentage was the best so far in Fitz, edging Week 8's 87.4% clip.

"WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TWO FITZ TEAMS PLAY EACH OTHER?!" If you've been following the comments featured in our weekly PICKS emails, you know that the strategy of "Only pick teams Fitz has QB'd, playing teams Fitz has not QB'd" has been working flawlessly. But Fitz played for both the Bills and Jets. Apparently that means we must avoid those games...

Stat of the week: The Raiders and Ravens are a combined 3-5 in games they've led by at least 17 points this year. The rest of the NFL is a combined 43-0-1.

Team SZN record: Commish is onto BFIG Week 10 for the second time ever (in 2020 I got bounced in Week 11) after backing the Pats in their trouncing of the Jeff Saturdays. Meanwhile, The GM has climbed all the way to T3401 in the WeeWoo overall standings - our highwater mark of the SZN.

 

Yours in football,
The Commish

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