Friends in fight songs,
What am I missing? I ask myself this every week. I’ve actually RALLIED to earn the household title Mr. 32nd Percentile.
But this week, Vegas is mocking my college football IQ. We don’t do point spreads here at the SZN, but they’re certainly helpful to gain a directional feel for each matchup.
Well, my compass is spinning like a drum major’s baton. I’m not dotting the “I” in moxie. I’m dotting both of them in insanity.
WEEK 11 PICKS
- TT Survivor
- R&R Pick'em
- Your group picks
Yes, Texas is at home, but the three-loss Longhorns are somehow a touchdown favorite to undefeated TCU, whose upstart season was finally validated this week with a coveted No. 4 ranking by the College Football Playoff Committee.
Texas has been a tough out all season, and Football Outsider’s efficiency rankings love them (top 15 offense and defense, No. 6 overall). But they somehow managed to lose to a PAIR of teams TCU has already topped. Even if you can’t stomach the first three quarters of every Horned Frog rollercoaster, how do you move so brazenly past a pick’em? (Our sanity-restoring lean is 50-50.) Like, Texas fans could storm the field and still not cover?
The Committee has been sharp regarding LSU, ranking them No. 10 last week, ahead of all but three one-loss teams, even though the AP Poll had them lagging behind at No. 15. Sure enough, the Tigers took down the Tide. This week, they are No. 7 in the rankings, with a persuadable path to the Top-4. Yet LSU travels to Arkansas - just 5-4 overall and 2-3 in the SEC - as a fragile field goal favorite. If you consider Alabama and LSU to be relative equals (fair, considering recent events), the Tide were favored by more than 17 at Arkansas, and won by 23. So the Committee believes in Bayou Brian, but Vegas thinks he’s faking it like a halfcourt Cajun accent. (We went 85-15 Tigers in the Pick'em. The same dangerous split we gave Alabama last week.)
Meanwhile, No. 9 Alabama heads to No. 11 Ole Miss as a 12-point favorite. (We’re 80-20, Bama, btw.) What is this lingering disparity between LSU and Alabama? How is Arkansas - who just lost at home as a two-touchdown favorite to Liberty - an equal to LSU? I get that Arkansas-LSU is a rivalry, but even studying the series, the Tigers have won five of the last six, as well as four of the last five IN Fayetteville.
An honorable mention Survivor spread shoutout to No. 15 North Carolina, a one-loss ACC title contender who is a field goal underdog at the disintegrating Demon Deacons. Sure, that Clemson double-overtime doozy was a fun one, but the last two weeks have sent Wake Forest free-falling from No. 10 to unranked.
Sometimes homefield doesn’t matter. Other times it’s a permanent power play. At places like Fayetteville and Winston-Salem. For football.
The books did the same thing to the rock-shocking Jayhawks, fresh off their first win over a ranked opponent in 46 tries. Kansas, which can still climb the standings and qualify for the Big-12 title game, is a field goal underdog at 2-4 Texas Tech.
And we AGREE. We are virtually unanimous in our Survivor approval of both home favorites, conference title relevancy be damned. (Wake pickers are all doubling-up with Oregon, for some reason.)
Maybe that’s why I’m winless in Survivor, and Mr. 32nd Percentile in Pick'em…
PICK STATS
Trampled Trombone Survivor
- Nearly 90% of us are hopping on the back of the Oregon Duck’s motorcycle and popping wheelies on the 50-yard line.
- We’re going FULL LANNING.
- And Oregon, name your mascot. I know it’s essentially Donald Duck, but you just call it the Oregon Duck. In the 1920s, you had a live Duck named Puddles. BRING BACK PUDDLES.
- More than 30% of us went with Oregon-LSU as our favorite combo.
- About half as many of us chose Oregon-Georgia - a full-circle moment we wouldn’t have predicted way back in Week 1.
- We also like Oregon-Texas Tech and Oregon-Wake Forest. I surrender.
- At least we don’t have any Texas Tech-Wake Forest combos.
- LSU approached nearly 40% of our combos, while Georgia and Texas Tech are hovering around half that.
- As a reminder, we pick two teams for this week and next. If we’re still going, we move to THREE TEAMS for Rivalry Week.
- We only have eight games to choose from next week, but we’ll have a SZN-high 14 matchups in Week 13.
Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em
- Our majority picks are favored by at least 90% of us in two-thirds of our matchups.
- Michigan and Ohio State are both in the 99% Club. No sports gear allowed.
- Tennessee is also in the Club. Georgia and UCLA are $100 handshakes away from entering.
- Almost 4% of us are entertaining a Washington upset of Oregon.
- And 5% of us think Navy is just as good as Stanford and Marshall, or can simply sink Notre Dame with its triple-option sleight-of-hand.
- We’re giving Ole Miss a 20% chance to hand Nick Saban his second straight loss.
- Another 15% of us are betting the spotlight’s too bright for LSU in Fayetteville.
- Two matchups are split. We’re ever-so-slightly leaning Tulane over UCF, and Texas over TCU.
WEEKLY AWARDS
Dot the "i" in Moxie Award
Given to the boldest pick - WITH A COMMENT - so be sure to leave one!
@cegriffi (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "A week of chaos rains down on CFB and I finally get a few $$ for it"
Merf says: My eyes are melting reading your SCORCHING hot picks. LSU, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Penn State ALL going down?!? THE MOXIE IS YOURS.
Play Like a Champion Award
The very best comment
@kempsoos (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "UCLA, more like UC-NO WAY. TCU, more Like TC-PEE-YEW. UCF more like UC-F'ing-Sucks. Oregon Ducks, more like Oregon Sucks. UGA, more like UGA-ly. Bring it NCAA I could do this all day... I picked all these teams by the way, I'm just feeling divisive today."
Merf says: WHY DID YOU STOP. Notre Lame was RIGHT THERE. Alabama Crimson Died. MichiCAN'T. O-H-Oh-No. And of course, fUCLA.
Lennay Kekua Memorial Award
The most convincing comment
@mahatma19 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): ""Give me a 'W!" Give me a 'R!' Give me an 'O!' Give me an 'N!" Give me a 'G!" What's it describe!?" My picks!"
Merf says: Let's see, Wolverines, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia...we just need an R. Take the Razorbacks!
The "I'm a Man, I'm 40!" Award
The spiciest take
@jhctr (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Midshipmen shock the world this week, mark it dude "
Merf says: MARKED, my dude. But you can't call one upset and expect to compete with @cegriffi!
MORE PICK COMMENTS
@Manfresh (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Roughing the kicker"
Merf says: Brutal. My condolences if you went to Missouri, had reasons to root for them last weekend.
@JFrog2276 (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "TCU finally gets their respect from the CFP committee... but I guess we'll just have to wait for Vegas"
Merf says: Maybe TCU will be favored against a four-loss Longhorn team in the Big 12 title game?
@judigregry (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "‘M eye crooked letter crooked letter…for the upset, and a buck to the one who finishes the phrase!"
Merf says: Is this jump rope or double-dutch? M, I, crooked letter, crooked letter, I, crooked letter, crooked letter, I, humpback, humpback, I. Mississippi!
@Keiffapro (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "So many years watching UCF vs Tulane in 65,000 seat citrus bowl with maybe 10,000 people… Now we’re squaring off both in the top 25?! Where even is Tulane? I’m gonna start driving now! National Champions here we come, Charge On!"
Merf says: What is the hand signal for Charge On? Do you aggressively stick one hand behind your head and point the other way?
@davidbernhardt (Tigers, Ducks): "Tough week. Geaux Ducks!"
Merf says: Can we get a mashup mascot? A Tiger riding a motorcycle?
@MONSTERXXX (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Wooooooo Boooooooy !"
Merf says: Are you quoting the Lane Trane after your Ole Miss upset?
@shaunlat (Rankings & Rivalries Pick'em): "Prayers"
Merf says: You're praying for all the favorites? I don't think that's how prayers work...
Yours in baggy khakis and bubble gum,
Merf