Friends in football,
The top of our picking boards this week feels distinctively old school NFL. The top five in BFIG: Giants, Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Bears. Five squads that have been who they are for decades, and all won Super Bowls in the 70s and 80s.
WEEK 10 PICKS
- BFIG Survivor
- WeeWoo Pick'em
- FitzMagic Survivor
- Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)
What's distinctively NOT old school is those teams' identities in 2022. Excepting Kansas City, they're all either emergent, having made sweeping changes in the past few years (CHI, NYG, MIA), or grappling with an identity they thought they'd moved past (SF).
It all feels very poetic to Commish, because the 2022 NFL has felt like one massive identity shift.
At QB, just one year after people talked about it being a QB quality high water mark in NFL history, it certainly feels like we've pendulum swung all the way to something closer to a low water mark. The old guard QBs have been... bad, with essentially no exceptions. The new guard QBs have been... mediocre, with a few bright spots.
Geno Smith is a legitimate MVP candidate.
The offensive explosion of the past decade has lost its firepower. This is the first year since Commish-can't-even-remember where you could credibly say defensive coaches are outsmarting offensive ones. Sure, bad QB play explains some of this... but the defensive shifts also CAUSE some of that bad QB play.
Team identities are in flux. The Vikings, who could seemingly never win one-score games, now win all of them. The Packers, who could seemingly never lose one-score games, now lose all of them.
Commish could keep going (and going).
When everything is amid new identity forging, it's very hard to predict outcomes. And there you have the 2022 NFL SZN.
Thus, while it'd be fitting to see another BFIG (and Fitz) Week 10 like three of the past four Week 10s (complete bloodbath), it'd also be fitting in a different way to see us skate by relatively unscathed.
As a reminder, here's what BFIG Week 10 has looked like since we moved to two picks per week in 2018:
- 2018: 18.2% survival (296 survivors down to 54)
- 2019: 0.8% (1,536 down to 12)
- 2020: 76.2% (1,758 down to 1,340)
- 2021: 6.7% (1,290 down to 87)
If today is just like 2019, we'll have a BFIG champion tomorrow.
If today is just like 2020, maybe we need to consider a new Survivor Golden Rule: When possible, pick teams Grandpa would have picked in BFIG 1975.
PICK STATS
BFIG Survivor
- We are now in TWO picks per week territory for both BFIG and Fitz, so our total pick percentage sums to 200%
- BFIG pick percentages for our top picks: Giants (61%, vs. Texans), Chiefs (45%, vs. Jags), Niners (29%, vs. Chargers), Dolphins (21%, vs. Browns), Bears (15%, vs. Lions)
- Five home teams. One divisional game.
- Commish was very pleased with us collectively laying off the Falcons on Thursday (as a road team in a divisional game). Their loss felled just 2% in BFIG and 4% in Fitz.
- 60% who had the Giants available in BFIG took them. 63% who had the Chiefs took them. Both are the highest such numbers so far this year.
- Philly's meager 9 picks were still 33% of the people who had the Eagles available.
- That means just 18 still have the Eagles in their quiver. Just 10 have the Rams. All other teams are available to at least 30 survivors.
WeeWoo Pick'em
- The 90%+ pick club (despite Commish's best attempts): Chiefs (98%), Giants (94%), Eagles (94%), Dolphins (90%).
- FiveThirtyEight's win probabilities for those four teams: Chiefs (85%, -13% from our pick rate), Giants (80%, -14%), Eagles (84%, -10%), Dolphins (69%, -21%).
- The relative toss-ups: Bills-Vikings (66/34), Rams-Cards (62/38), Saints-Steelers (59/41), Bucs-Seahawks (55/45).
- 25% of us got the Panthers upset of the Falcons correct on Thursday night. COMMISH IS A PROUD MAN (even though he picked the Falcons).
- The Chiefs (and Eagles) have overtaken the Bengals atop our "most picked WeeWoo teams" board.
- The Chiefs have 76,568 picks (Eagles: 75,996; Bengals: 73,081), and thru Week 9 have posted a 68% win rate.
- 68% is... not what you want from your most picked WeeWoo team on the year.
- The Eagles, of course, are still batting 100%
- The Bucs are our fifth most picked team, and likely the most picked team ever to be below .500 in their WeeWoo win rate after Week 9. Even a win today (which looks likely) won't change their below .500 status.
FitzMagic Survivor
- The top of our board went Giants (69%), Niners (26%), Chiefs (23%), Dolphins (19%), Raiders (15%).
- The Giants were THIS close to being our first majority pick in this year's NFL SZN (50%+ in a 1-pick week, 70%+ in a 2-pick week).
- It's a huge statistical anomaly that we haven't yet had a majority pick. It, again, speaks to the parity this year, and how hard it is to have consensus on "obvious" picks.
- The Cowboys (at the Packers) had 4% of our Fitz picks vs. just 1% in BFIG, despite the Cowboys having lower availability in Fitz.
WEEKLY AWARDS
"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
Boldest pick WITH a comment. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!
@Robbiggie (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I feel an upset from the Jags this week."
Commish says: ROB CAN WE BE FRIENDS. OR DO YOU GO BY BIGGIE
Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)
@tcsung93 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Somebody once told me the world is gonna roll me.
I ain't the sharpest rock in the cave.
I was looking kind of dumb with my mouse over the Jets.
Thinking of the "W" in my forehead.
Well, the "yer stupid"s start comin' and they don't stop comin'.
Caved to the fools and I hit the Bills runnin'.
Didn't make sense for the Jets to dunk.
My brain got weak and my head more weak.
So much I lost, so much I drank.
So what'was wrong with my gut last week?
I'll never know since I didn't pick the Jets.
(S-s-superbowlo).
NOW THEY'RE ON THEIR BYE WEEK"
Commish says: MOAR "DELIRIOUSLY HAPPY JETS FAN" POETRY. MOAR!!!
"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)
@grahamgarland (Fitz: Bears, Giants): "Cincy is on Bye, Commanders and Texans are heavy underdogs. My former "Only Fitz teams" strategy would move from bold to ridiculous this week. That's not a smart move. Not the kind of move a Harvard graduate like Ryan Fitzpatick would make. Did you know he went to Harvard? Anyway, he went to Harvard. Smart guy. So this week I'm trying to keep the picks bold. The New Daboll Giants and the Don't Look Now Bears. "
Commish says: THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS TO THE "TEAMS FITZ QB'D" STRATEGY, GRAHAM. GRAAAAHAMMMMMM
Definitely Not Concussed Award
The spiciest/wildest take.
@brodstefan (BFIG: Giants, Raiders): "twice the picks? twice the confidence and TWICE AS EASY. Survivor gods mean nothing to me."
Commish says: RIP EITHER THE GIANTS OR RAIDERS. (Please can it be the Raiders, Survival Gods? I'd really appreciate that. Thank you. Signed, your humble servant, Commish.)
MORE COMMENTS
@GTdaLEGEND (BFIG: Bears, Chiefs): "Commish and I are in the final 105 — our first trip to the 105 since our college days back at USC."
Commish says: GT had a sports column for the Daily Trojan that he named "Thrilla on Manilla Paper". The competition for world's best column name ended that day. Also, I do not miss the 105. Or the 405. Or the 5.
@lgjendem (Fitz: Giants, 49ers): "Giants and 9ers as my pick brings me back to 93, oh boy what a heavyweight battle over the divisional round. Honestly, I have no idea what that game was like, I was 3 at the time, but that's the last time I can think of both teams being relevant at the same time. "
Commish says: ARE YOU IN MY HEAD
@cookdatfreak (BFIG: Giants, Chiefs): "Those who use their last “automatic” picks will be erased. The result, Week 13 brings home the win. "
Commish says: Wait wait wait, are you predicting you hoist the BFIG Title Belt in Week 13? TELL US MORE. And... is your username like Who Dat except it's Cook Dat? TELL US MORE.
@Bobby_Shan (Fitz: Dolphins, Giants): "My 2 favorite teams.. at the most important time/picks of the Survivor SZN.... what can possibly go wrong??!!"
Commish says: Oh NO. Are you saying this is a DOUBLE Inverse Hedge of Happiness? This might be a first in SZN history. Do you have an emergency contact? Please send me your emergency contact.
@Syverso3 (Loser: Jaguars, Commanders): "I live in DC and the Commanders owe me a loss this week for the amount of traffic I've been forced to endure. Top 10 here we come!"
Commish says: The state of Daniel Snyder's team: POLL: Would you rather have the Snyder-owned Commanders OR have less traffic? (We know how this poll turns out, right?)
@TheCommish (Swami: Jaguars): "Jags go for 2 at the buzzer and upset the Chiefs, 29-28"
Commish says: IF IT HAPPENS, KNOW THIS. (No, I do not talk to myself.)
@mahatma19 (Swami: Lions): "Imagine someone convincing you their Swami picks were excellent. Like, “you think it’s gonna be 24-21? Very convincing.”"
Commish says: I do this every week. What are you trying to say about me. I don't like your tone.
@kempsoos (Swami: Giants): "Pierce and Barkley each score two TDs and go over 120 yards. The other 90 gameday active players combine for 68 yards. Giants steal one field goal after a INT."
Commish says: Given I intend to watch this game, I REALLY hope this does not happen. But do I think it's possible? Yes, yes I do.
@Shaggybrak (Swami: Panthers): "Can you beat a team you cannot game plan against? Who carries the ball? Foreman? Hubbard? Some dude what used to sell popcorn? Who throws the ball? Walker? That shouty guy from Oklahoma? Who catches the ball? I can't even make a guess... I am not googling it either... do the Panthers even have receivers? How can Atlanta defend a team that will likely be drawing up plays with sticks in the dirt during huddles? "Chubba I want you to make a squiggly path out to about this rock; You... wide out guy... you serpentine back and forth like 5 times before shooting up the middle; other wide out guy stand still and act like you gotta piss really bad. Blocky guy... I'm gonna tuck the ball under your jersey. On three!" "
Commish says: ANSWER: NO YOU CANNOT
@Schreindogg (Swami: Broncos): "I'm not sure why, but Broncos games seem to be the easiest to predict. "
Commish says: You SURE you don't know why? I think I know why.
@rnorwood (QB: Tua): "Teams fielded trade inquiries for me, right up through the NFL trade deadline. The market is white hot for someone with my athleticism and 9.8 second 40-yard dash time. I think the fact that I hurt myself eating last week may have dinged my value a tad. Throw in a splash of arthritis and I’m left off a roster, jobless. Just another clown in search of a circus."
Commish says: QUESTIONABLE TO RETURN WITH A CALZONE INJURY
@Jmkahn (QB: Dak): "I heard that the 100k yard mark by Brady is equal to 56 miles! Makes me wonder how many miles worth of money I've lost betting against him."
Commish says: I would suggest you do NOT do this calculation. For your sanity and well-being.
@Gamblers44 (QB: Brissett): "I can't believe I just picked Brissett...."
Commish says: The glory (and challenge) of the one-and-done format!
@JKundBombers (BFIG: Giants, Chiefs): "Two picks? Double the takes? I got you! Danny Dimes leads the boys on a nice stroll through the meadowlands.. Saquon has a day!!! 24-10 Giants! Patty Ice and the boys almost shit the bed last week on SNF. Look no further, Andy gets his squad right against the Jags.. Chiefs roll! 31-17"
Commish says: Is Patty Ice a thing? It's not a thing, right? It can't be a thing.
@Jfoleymn (BFIG: Dolphins, 49ers): "Why haven’t we heard from the GM lately???"
Commish says: What do you mean?! GM is alive and WELL. So well that he is our NBA SZN scribe, dishing hot takes like Stockton dished dimes.
@ekahn93 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I was informed that my twin brother @Jmkahn was talking shit about me last week. I can assure you his judgment is skewed. Did you know he bought and still currently owns the following Eagles jerseys/tshirts - Donte Stallworth, Takeo Spikes, David Akers, DeMarco Murray. He probably would have bought a Sam Bradford jersey if they sold it in comically large sleeve sizes. Jmkahn makes outrageous claims like Dino Spimoni from Hey Arnold was the voice of a generation, when in fact, The Beets from Doug is undoubtedly more popular and more of a generational talent. "Killer Tofu" alone gets them into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. My brother also claims that the Broncos/Colts game in week 5 was "the worst thing" he's ever seen, when I know for a fact he's watched the movies Grown Ups and Grown Ups 2. This football SZN, don't believe everything you hear. Use your best judgment, or you might end up drafting Cam Akers in your fantasy league, like my brother. *This message was paid for by the "1st is the Worst, 2nd is the Best Committee" for second born twins*"
Commish says: Have the two of you considered starting a podcast where some random person calls in and gives you ANY topic in the world, and then the two of you find a way to just talk mad shit to each other about that topic and war over which twin is better at it? I just ask for 10% of profits.
@Lootsdoolb (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Just had a lengthy screaming match with my wife because the gas fireplace I ordered is currently half installed, and it is *NOT* to her liking. The crew will return tomorrow to finish up installation, but I can never get back that 14 minutes of fight time, 200-million brain cells senselessly lost in the pointless agony of war, nor the $4,000 down payment I put on said fireplace. What I can do however, is grab a 30-rack of BLL, sit sweaty and shirtless in front of that roaring fire and watch my beloved Vikings fail miserably trying to tackle Josh Allen. So Skol then, I guess?"
Commish says: THROW ON ANOTHER LOG, LOOTSDOOLB!
@Mr_Rodgers_Neighborhood (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Josh Allen's elbow is an endangered species, and must be protected like the bald eagle until it flourishes again."
Commish says: I believe, in Buffalo, Josh Allen and bald eagles are practically interchangeable in how they are used in imagery
@LasLiLo1432 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I saw Aaron Rodgers taking a step back this season. I didn't foresee an all-out retreat."
Commish says: A psychadelics retreat? (I'll be here all week.)
@Wahoophil (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "This is a haiku. Picking Jax this week is dumb. Can’t even do it. "
Commish says: This would have been a WAY better haiku if your last line was "But Moxie made me"
@Jkruney (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I took Jalen Hurts MVP +2500 on July 3rd. "
Commish says: What a bet!!
@nando22 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "My picks are stronger than Josh Allen's elbow"
Commish says: Hear that? It's an angry mob from Buffalo, NY that is COMING FOR YOU
@julianroz (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Well I have not survived BFig nor the FitzMagic tour so this is all I got..."
Commish says: When you win $2K from a WeeWoo title, we're getting you a shirt with a faded portrait of your face and the words "WEEWOO IS ALL I GOT!!!!" in huge letters over the top.
@Swag4Life (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Let’s keep riding in the country "
Commish says: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
@cegriffi (Fitz: Chiefs, 49ers): "After playing with moxie fire I am quickly looking to cool off my spice… let’s hope the survivor gods don’t smite me"
Commish says: WHY WOULD YOU EVER WANT TO DE-SPICE
@Mr_Darwin (Fitz: 49ers, Eagles): "Team McCaffrey off a bye and the Eagles to punch Snyder in the eye"
Commish says: RIP SNYDER'S REC SPECS
@Patriots_Cluuuuub (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "2022 season almost makes me hate this sport. What a dumpster fire! But much like Homer Simpson eating a leftover 6' party sub and getting sick from it, I say "How can I stay mad at you". LFG you know I can't quit football, what would I drink BLL's to?"
Commish says: IN PARTY SUBS AS IN SZN AS IN LIFE
@Pacifictheory (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Wack ass Raiders "
Commish says: WACK ASS PACKERS
@Roastedbobcat86 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Perfection feels gooood"
Commish says: DO YOU EAT BOBCATS
Yours in football,
The Commish