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NFL Week 11 PICKS

by @TheCommish 🏈  NFL Free ⚡

Friends in football,

Commish has a spreadsheet that contains every BFIG pick ever. Yes. It has a lot of tabs. It loads like Matt Ryan runs. Slowly.

But it tells us things. It makes us wise. And today, Commish is gonna use it to predict when BFIG 2022 (and FitzMagic Survivor!) will crown its champion.

 

WEEK 11 PICKS

 

Now, before Commish lays out his bold predictions, a necessary disclaimer: Weird shit happens in the NFL. And not just in a single game or single week type of way - sometimes weird/improbable streaks can continue for nearly an entire NFL year.

To illustrate this effect, let's look at two polar opposite BFIG seasons where the only common thread is that weird shit happened:

  • In 2013, a full 17% of BFIG was still alive heading into Week 10 - our second highest % ever, behind 2009. And yet... it was over in Week 12. (We weren't even making 2 picks per week yet!)
  • In 2017, after Week 6 just 7% of BFIG remained. After Week 11, it was 0.6%. And yet... multiple people went 25-0 and we needed a Wildcard Weekend pickoff to crown a champ.

So, yeah, things don't always go to script. But do things USUALLY go to script? Commish prefers "abide by historical averages" instead of "go to script", and yes, things usually abide by historical averages.


This is BFIG's 14th year. That spreadsheet Commish mentioned has 300,000+ BFIG picks in it. Despite the "Any Given Sunday" nature of the NFL, there ARE patterns that repeat themselves over and over again. And while there are outlier years (see: my description of 2013 and 2017 above), you can use past years' BFIG history as a pretty good predictor of future BFIG performance.

We stand at 72 survivors in BFIG (0.55%) and 495 survivors in FitzMagic (3.76%).

There are a few methods you could take to predict when we'll crown champions. Commish will walk you through them:

Method 1: Rate of big losses. History tells us we'll have multiple teams picked by at least 35% of survivors every week. It'll only take 2 more losses from a highly picked favorite for us to reach the final few in BFIG. (In Fitz, it'll take 4.) In this year's NFL, we're averaging at least one such loss per week. And rarely do we go more than 1-2 additional weeks when we're down to fewer than 10 people. This method pegs us at a Week 13 BFIG ending and Week 15 Fitz ending.

Method 2: Availability of top teams. History tells us this matters. Having top teams still available translates to a higher win percentage and thus a longer BFIG runway. Heading into Week 11, 42% of BFIG survivors still had the Bills available. 35% had the Cowboys. 47% had the Dolphins, 43% had the Vikings, 57% had the Niners, 71% had the Pats, and 85% had the Titans. Fitz percentages are similar. That's an abnormally high availability rate for so many of the league's top teams by record, which increases the likelihood that just a handful of survivors could duke it out for 3, 4, or even 5 weeks. We saw this in 2009, 2012, 2017, and last year (2021) when Weeks 12 through 15 featured a total of 8 BFIG knockouts. This method pegs us at a Week 15 BFIG ending and Week 16 Fitz ending.

Method 3: Historical survival rates. History gives us tons of examples of "what happens at the point we have 72 survivors" (or 495 in the case of Fitz). This one rejects the finer details of methods 1 and 2 and simply says "on average, when you have this many survivors, it'll be over by Week X". This method pegs us at a Week 14 BFIG ending and Week 16 Fitz ending.

If we knew which method was likeliest to be correct, we'd just use that method every time. That's why you look at all of them and then take the average.

And thus, Commish's prediction: BFIG ends in Week 14 and Fitz ends in Week 16.

When I'm wrong, remember my big disclaimer above. When I'm right, fly to Minnesota, pick up @BigDaddy, then fly to New York and buy us all a round of Bud Light Limes with extra lime for my ZESTINESS.

 

PICK STATS

 

BFIG Survivor

  • We've entered Commish's favorite time of year: Are our big picks because 1/ we actually like those teams the most, 2/ we lack other good options, or 3/ STRATEGY?
  • Washington (at Houston) was our top BFIG pick (26 picks, 36%), but it's deceptive to just look at pick volume...
  • Buffalo ("vs" Cleveland, in Detroit) got 24 picks (33%), but that represents 80% of everyone who COULD have picked the Bills
  • That leaves just 6 BFIGers with the Bills in their quiver
  • Similarly, the Ravens (vs. Panthers) got 21 picks and that represented a whopping 91% of all people who COULD have picked them
  • Just TWO people can still pick Baltimore. Watch out for this if those two people survive...
  • The Niners ("at" Cards, in Mexico) got 22 picks, representing 54% of the people who could have taken them
  • Together, that's four teams that were picked by between 29% and 36% of BFIG
  • Historically, bigger picks win at roughly a 70% clip at this point in the year
  • So, for those four big picks, the probability that ALL four win is 24%. The likeliest result is 3-1 (41%), followed by 2-2 (26%)
  • A BFIGpocalypse (all four losing) comes in at 0.8% probability

 

WeeWoo Pick'em

  • Our WeeWoo pick percentages map much better to BFIG utilization rates (as in, what percentage of the people who COULD have picked a team actually did pick that team) than they do plain BFIG pick rates
  • The Ravens (97%) and Bills (96%) are the only members of the 90%+ club this week, and they had the two highest utilization rates in BFIG
  • We have an abnormally high number of teams in the 80s (six!), which is either a reflection of close-ish Vegas spreads or you all FINALLY adhering to Commish's advice to pick more upsets
  • Of the teams with between 80% and 89% of our picks, FiveThirtyEight gives... exactly zero of them an 80%+ likelihood of winning their game. They give the Giants a 71% win probability (vs. Lions) and the Chiefs 70% (at Chargers).
  • We have a MASSIVE gap between our pick rate on the Eagles (89%, at Colts) and FiveThirtyEight's win probability (56%, a 33% decline from our stance).
  • Maybe FiveThirtyEight's model still doesn't have a weight set for "Has only ever coached high school football... and mostly lost"

 

FitzMagic Survivor

  • Fitz had one major difference from BFIG this week - the Ravens
    Ravens availability was a lot higher in Fitz, largely owing to Baltimore being the most common Week 1 pick for still-alive BFIGers, whereas Fitz picking doesn't start till Week 5
  • We turned that into a 69% pick rate on the Ravens
  • 335 pickers on Baltimore represented 89% of everyone who COULD have taken the Ravens in Fitz - a similar utilization rate to BFIG (91%)
  • No love for the Baker Mayfields
  • The rest of Fitz looks pretty similar: Commanders (33%), Niners (22%), Bills (15%)
  • Shout-out to the lone pickers on the road underdog Raiders and Rams

 

WEEKLY AWARDS

 

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
Boldest pick WITH a comment. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@Deacon (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Commish, you asked for it. I will not join any 90+% crowd. Full contrarian underdog slate of picks here, even though there are a few underdogs with better records than their opponents (Titans, Commanders, Vikings). Maybe everyone else is running to the other side of the boat with me. It makes as much or more sense as anything else I’ve tried this season, and if I win, will send you a case of BLL out of the winnings as thanks for the idea. "
Commish says: You send ME a case of BLL? How about I sent you a goddamn MEDAL OF HONOR. May the underdog-but-not-by-THAT-much fortunes rain down upon you today, good sir. Given the stats I wrote in the WeeWoo section above, you picked a particularly good week to employ this strategy

 

Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Jfoleymn (BFIG: Commanders, Giants): "I may have burned up all the good teams, but at least they haven’t burned me."
Commish says: SZN T-SHIRT ALERT! Front: I may have burned every good team, but none of them burned me." // Back: BFIG CHAMPION 2022

@angelousbird (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I'm practicing my mantra: Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites. Listen to Commish. Stop picking favorites."
Commish says: CAN WE HIRE YOU

 

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@lgjendem (Fitz: Patriots, Ravens): "Don't trust Packers at home yet, need another week like last time believe. Not touching a rams vs. saints game this year. I could see bears or falcons winning. Bengals vs. Steelers is too divisional. I want to believe in Kirk cousins but not against a defense like the cowboys. Thus, I have to trust Belichick on the 10 year anniversary of the butt fumble and the Ravens even though it feels like a trap game. Lord give me strength this week. "
Commish says: It's the Butt Fumble 10-year anniversary?! PATS BY A BILLION.

 

Definitely Not Concussed Award
The spiciest/wildest take.

@EPVikes1001 (BFIG: Commanders, 49ers): "With few options let’s hope breaking the golden rules don’t result in golden showers"
Commish says: This raises a fascinating question - if the game is an "away" game but being played at a neutral site (Mexico, in this case)... are you really picking a "road team in a divisional game"? The Mexico thing is certainly a wildcard (so it's definitively NOT a safe pick), but I'm leaning "no" to it being the egregious violation of the Golden Rules that picking road divisional teams is. And I have nothing to say about the other part of your comment.

 

MORE COMMENTS



@jbeck224 (Fitz: Bills, Broncos): "omg i am picking the commanders what is happening!? ok nevermind i switched it to the saints ok today i changed to denver"
Commish says: You waffle on picks like Russ waffles on progressions. OH SHIT YOU PICKED DENVER.

 

@Shaggybrak (Swami: Titans): "Here's the thing - I'm becoming more and more convinced we live in a simulation: I've recently read that Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson says, if we were living in a perfect simulation we wouldn't know it. Therefore the only way to know if in fact we live in a simulation is by the glitches in the simulation. Glitches like: people with no cavities who've never brushed their teeth; people who live to be 100 but have been chain smokers since they were 5; the Olson Twins, and Bernard King. Need more proof? Ryan Tannehill is a glitch. The NFL eats QB's that underperform like mold eats cheese; like my dad ate Suzy-Q's; like a retirement community goes through jello cups. He is a glitch - he's on a winning team going up against a pedigreed and groomed elite QB on a losing team. He's outlasted touted names like Luck, Griffin the 3rd, Bortles, Manziel; has had an arguably better career than many QB's drafted after him that were expected to excel like Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold. Need more proof? Tannehill's career QB rating in the playoffs is only 2pts lower than Peyton Manning's career playoff QB rating. Need more proof we live in a simulation: Geno Smith. BOOM!"
Commish says: Geno Smith. Jello cups! RYAN TANNEHILL!!!

 

@notkendalljenner (BFIG: Commanders, Vikings): "Dear God, please win. "
Commish says: Do you know Kendall and does she like football?

 

@ekahn93 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I assumed the hatred for New Jersey started in the 1980s when the Giants and Jets moved from Shea Stadium to the Meadowlands. Then this week i saw a real quote from Benjamin Franklin when he compared New Jersey to "a keg tapped on both ends". Google it, it's real. I'm just saying, if Benny Boy Frank was hating on Jersey in the 1700s then maybe these feelings are validated. He's on the $100 bill. Are you? Somehow this all connects to me...taking @Commish advice to "STOP TAKING ALL THE FAVORITES" and picking the Lions and Patriots this week. Deep breaths, Commish, deep breaths."
Commish says: What the hell did Jersey ever do to Benny Boy Hundo? When the Jets win the 2022 Super Bowl (WHERE ARE THE DELIRIOUS JETS FAN COMMENTS THIS WEEK?!), do the people of New Jersey celebrate?

 

@aphanson7 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Have 11 out of 14 road teams ever won outright?"
Commish says: Yes indeed they have. For starters, in Week 1 1983, road teams went 12-2.

 

@golowrusto (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Go lo Rusto has never sniffed victory in SZN. Let’s make it two and a row."
Commish says: Wait so what was the first? I'm confused and yet I find myself with an unquenchable thirst for RUSTO FANDOM. GO LOW, RUSTO!!!

 

@SkolNick (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Sundays are for the Saturday"
Commish says: OK I lol'd

 

@Nawlinssaints (Loser: Steelers, Chargers): "Down to the Final Four; go big or go home!!"
Commish says: Given that home is also where Aaron Rodgers and his spiritual healers will be during the playoffs, you definitely want big. GO BIG!!

 

@kempsoos (Swami: Titans): "I convinced a MN born packers fan that its time to come to the light yesterday... The light that is the Minnesota Vikings. Kirk Cousins is a much better father figure for her than Aaron is anyway. Kirk is "I'll have her home by ten" Aaron is "Do you know if she's allergic to Penicillin?""
Commish says: Perhaps the saddest moment of my 2022 was realizing the speed at which I agreed that Kirk Cousins is a better role model and father figure than Aaron Rodgers

 

@Jmkahn (Swami: Bears): "The full lyrics to Photograph by Nickelback."
Commish says: I sang all of the lyrics and I still don't understand how they relate to 29-21 Bears over Falcons. DO YOU REALIZE WHAT YOU'VE PUT ME THROUGH KAHN

 

@Taco_Inc (Swami: Commanders): "To the cloud!"
Commish says: TACO CLOUDS

 

@rnorwood (QB: Prescott): "Did you know that Cookie Monster’s real name is Sid? Did you know that the “cookies” he consumes on Sesame Street are actually painted rice cakes? That seems like a real jam job to me. Everyone knows that rice cakes are little more than tripolymer injection foam insulation, often a two-part isocyante based polyurethane resin. Still, I suppose that with childhood obesity rates rising unchecked, it was only a matter of time before Cookie Monster would have to be the face of healthy eating. Plus, he probably didn’t want to look down the barrel of adult-monster onset Type 2 diabetes. "
Commish says: Be honest Norwood: How much time did you spend on the Wikipedia page for "isocyante based polyurethane resin" while writing this comment? And how many Oreos did you consume while on said Wiki page?

 

@hikee44 (QB: Allen): "Sick kid at home, so instead of going to work I've spent 1,000% more time (~8 minutes) thinking of how bad I don't want to ruin my chances at finishing near the top in Interval 2."
Commish says: One day you'll tell your kid "You had a temperature of 103, and I rode Josh Allen to GLORY"

 

@maupind4 (QB: Ryan): "Matty Ice has to drink Natty Ice. "
Commish says: What kind of SAVAGE are you?!

 

@dustinhurley85 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Who’d of known Colt McCoy still plays in the nfl. Kingsbury is garbage, Murray is a pouty child. Good thing is my giants are winning! Truthfully just want the Vikings to keep winning to see cousins in his sick ass chains. This is a good year to drink just a little too much on Sundays. "
Commish says: The 2022 NFL: When it made sense to drink just a little more on Sundays

 

@Keiffapro (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Oh damn, 12-2 last week that's pretty damn goo.... Oh shit I tied first!!! Only took 5 seasons, but I finally got some money back!"
Commish says: Some money back? My man. You are living on PROFIT now!

 

@noSox (Fitz: Bears, Commanders): "I hate my picks. I hate picking the commies. I hate trusting Fields. I hate it here. "
Commish says: YOU LOVE IT HERE, YESSOX

 

@Bobby_Shan (Fitz: Ravens, 49ers): "This is fun. Not scary. Fun fun fun."
Commish says: IN THE SUN SUN SUN

 

@dirtyhab (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I GOT NOTHIN'"
Commish says: THE CORRECT COMMENT WAS "I GOT YOU, BABE" though we also accept "Commish" instead of "babe"

 

@Lude8282 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "So….have we all finally stopped listening to Antonio Brown? He’s been pretty quiet lately"
Commish says: RAISE YOUR HAND IF YOU SAW AN AB COMMENT COMING THIS WEEK

 

@Concats09 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Lennys mom is hot!!!"
Commish says: GET MINA KIMES IN THE POOL!!!

 

@rjcthird (BFIG: Patriots, Ravens): "lets keep this shit rolling!!"
Commish says: CUE LIMP BIZKIT LET'S GOOOO

 

@4dwPicks (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I finally go 14-0, but do it the week before the holiday prize pool bump to $5k? Ok, back to back, 28 for my next 28 it is then! What to do with $7k?"
Commish says: 30 RACKS OF BUD LIGHT LIME COST $30 AT APPROPRIATELY PRICED SUPERMARKETS

 

Yours in football,
The Commish

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