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NFL Week 12 Update

by @TheCommish 🏈  NFL Free ⚡

Friends in football,

Imagine your level of holiday gift giving swag with an extra $5,030 in the piggy bank. You'd be like Taylor Heinicke in chains except... not.

MAKE YOUR WEEK 12 PICKS

Naturally, after Commish made his first ever official prediction of when BFIG and FitzMagic Survivor would end, the chalk tasted GREAT in Week 11.

We had our second best WeeWoo win rate of the SZN - 64.9%, just behind Week 9's 67.8% - and have had the best Week 10/11 (the first two-pick weeks) survival rate in BFIG history.

Commish MIGHT have called it after Week 9. I said, "The only thing more fitting than continued chaos in Goodell's unpredictability fever dream season would be a pendulum swing all the way back to 'ALL the favorites keep winning.'"

Two weeks later, it looks as if that might be exactly what's happening.

We won at an 82.7% clip in Week 10 and an 88.9% clip in Week 11. We're having FAR more success picking two teams per week than we did for 80% of the 1-pick weeks.

Somewhere, Bill Barnwell, wearing a "Is that a Barnwellian Reversion to the Mean?" t-shirt, is smiling.

Just know the survivor gods never smile. They just wait for YOU to smile and then plot something worse than stealing money from poor children.

(Yes, we're accepting submissions for a BFIG name change. Post your ideas on the homepage feed and tag Commish and GM!)

 

BFIG RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We went from 72 to 56, meaning more than half of the BFIGers who entered the two-pick zone in Week 10 are still alive after two weeks of it.

"Ugh, why didn't I pick the Commanders?"

It was largely a cakewalk for everyone who didn't pick the Giants (10 knockouts), which meant that the tons of BFIGers who used Super Bowl contenders like the Bills, Niners, and Ravens were likely left wishing they had used one of their picks on the Commanders (23-10 victors over the Texans in a game that was 23-3 till the final minutes). Washington was our top pick, but just 38% of BFIGers who had the Commanders available picked them. These are the decisions that might prove crucial as the "teams available" cupboard gets barer and barer.

 

WEEWOO RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

Four brave souls went a perfect 14-0. Shout out to @Bh32, @MGrashow, @Themanatthetop, and @cefird, who split the weekly $2K haul. And double shout-out to @Themanatthetop, who is, at least for one week, exactly what his username says he is.

You still needed three upset picks to win. 

One week after Commish resorted to ALL CAPS yelling to get us to pick more underdogs, favorites had one of their best weeks of 2022. Still, to win Week 11, you needed to pick the big Lions upset over the Giants, along with Raiders over Broncos and Titans over Packers. We very nearly had another huge upset in Colts over Eagles.

 

FITZMAGIC RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

We went from 495 to 354, again taking on slightly more water than we did in BFIG.

"Yeah. What he said about the Commanders."

Our Fitzian survivors were actually slightly LESS inclined to roll with Riverboat Ron and the Commanders (33.5% pick rate vs. BFIG's 36%). Commish expects FitzMagic Survivor to be the Wild West of survivor. LET'S GO, PEOPLE. (Though, huge shout-out to our two Titans pickers and our one Raiders picker in Week 11.)

 

Stat of the week: Cordarrelle Patterson now has an NFL-record nine kickoff returns for touchdowns. Every single one was either for or against the Vikings or Bears.

 

 

Yours in football,
The Commish

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