Friends in fútbol,

Ghana, Costa Rica, Iran, and Australia were four of the weakest six teams to qualify for the World Cup. They ALL won in Matchday 2.

Oh, and Morocco also beat pre-tournament favorite, Belgium, for good measure.

Commish gives you a "SZN competition viewing guide to Matchday 3" below. BUT FIRST...

EVERYONE gets to make Knockout Stage picks for both our Bracket and Pick'em competitions. They're due, along with Survivor picks, by 7am PT on Saturday (12/3). The Round of 16 matchups aren't set until Friday afternoon, so make a mental note to pick and pay attention to our reminders on Friday!

MATCHDAY 3 PICKS

• Old Man Buffon Survivor
  
  • Game View | Matchday 3 Standings
• Pickles Pick'em
  • Summary | Group Stage Standings
• Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)

Now, the matches this week are absolutely loaded with advancement implications, and thus SZN leaderboard implications. What should you be watching for? Glad you asked...

THE SIX MATCHES WITH BIG SZN IMPLICATIONS:

• Ecuador vs. Senegal (TODAY): 379 of us picked Senegal to advance in the Pick'em. 357 picked Ecuador. An Ecuador win or tie sends them through. A loss sends Senegal through. This is easily the most consequential matchup for our Pick'em leaderboard.
• Iran vs. United States (TODAY): 84% of us picked USA to advance in the Pick'em. Just 27 picked Iran - the fourth lowest of any team. USA needs to win. Else, Iran advances. If Iran does go forward, it's a massively leveraged win for the 27 people who picked them.
• Australia vs. Denmark (WEDS): 93% of us picked Denmark to advance in the Pick'em. Just 53 picked Australia, which only needs a tie to advance (presuming Tunisia doesn't do the unthinkable and upset France). Just like Iran, if the Socceroos advance, it'll be a hugely leveraged win for the 53 who picked them.
• Croatia vs. Belgium (THURS): Belgium was among the pre-tournament favorites to win it all. 94% of us of us picked them to advance in the Pick'em. But they likely need to beat Croatia to survive their group. 74% of us picked Croatia, which advances with a win or tie. Just 8% of us picked Morocco, which is one point clear of Belgium and with a much better goal differential.
• Ghana vs. Uruguay (FRI): Uruguay was our top pick to advance (89%) and is among our top Matchday 3 survivor picks despite sitting last in the group after 2 matches. Ghana was picked by just 12% in the Pick'em. Ghana is likely through with a tie, and definitely through with a win. Uruguay needs to win.
• Serbia vs. Switzerland (FRI): This is about the Pick'em leaderboard, as 54% of us picked Switzerland to advance as the second team in "Brazil's group" and 32% picked Serbia. Switzerland will advance with a tie or win. Serbia needs to win.

Reminder that the Game Outcomes page shows you the number of picks on every team, and gets updated with results (who won/lost, who advanced, etc.) as the games happen. 

For Matchday 2 survivor recap, Matchday 3 picks, and our best Matchday 3 comments, scroll on...

MATCHDAY 2 RECAP

Old Man Buffon Survivor

Who's still alive | Game Outcomes

We went from 500 to 62 in Old Man Buffon Survivor. We hit on just 57.4% picks after posting an 86.6% success rate in Matchday 1. Our 2nd, 3rd, and 5th biggest picks all lost (Japan, Wales, Belgium).

We overreacted to Matchday 1

England clobbered Iran and we thought, "OK, Wales has their game vs. Iran in the bag." Japan shocked Germany while Spain smoked Costa Rica and we thought, "No way Japan loses to Costa Rica." Before the tourney began, Iran over Wales and Costa Rica over Japan would have been reasonable predictions to make. But we pivoted hard after Matchday 1 and made Japan and Wales two of our three biggest picks. Commish doesn't blame us, but I WILL remind us that one game is a VERY small sample size. (And two games is still pretty small!)

Our Moxie award winners have hit on 5 of 6 picks. Matchday 2's winner, @Pattrick11, predicted the Australia win, but was felled by Wales like so many of us. In general, it was nearly impossible to survive the first two Matchdays if you only picked chalk.

Pickles Pick'em

The pendulum MIGHT be swinging back to normal-ish?

With a gritty tie vs. Spain, Germany might still advance after a shocking opening defeat. Argentina looks likely to advance after its own opening match loss. While we're still gonna see some surprise entrants in the Knockout Stage, it's possible that most of the pre-tourney favorites will join them. That looked less likely after Matchday 1.

Here's a look at the group-by-group picks on each country. (Blue shaded cells denote your picks.)

MATCHDAY 3 PICK STATS

Old Man Buffon Survivor

• We're down to just 62, so any team getting 15+ picks is a "big" pick
• Commish penned this with 2 people yet to pick. So 60 sets of picks are in
• Our top picks: Germany (30 picks, vs. Costa Rica), Mexico (27, vs. Saudi Arabia), Netherlands (27, vs. Qatar), United States (23, vs. Iran)
• On the other end of the spectrum - let's call it "saving the favorites" - Brazil got just ONE pick vs. Cameroon, followed by Portugal (5), Argentina (5), England (5), Spain (7), and France (7)
• Per the Golden Spreadsheet, Senegal and Netherlands are the most picked teams among our 62 remaining survivors. Roughly 75% have used each team
• On the other end, nearly 3/4ths of survivors still have Brazil available. Same deal for France and Spain
• Some bold picks: One on Croatia (vs. Belgium), one on Serbia (vs. Switzerland), two on Canada (vs. Morocco), one on each side of Ecuador-Senegal, and... Commish's favorite pick... one on Australia (with 12 picks on their opponent, Denmark)

Pickles Pick'em

• Reminder that, for the Group Stage, we just picked the two teams to advance out of each group
• In the Knockout Stage, we'll pick the winners in each round, before each round starts
• There are prizes for best Group Stage picking and best Knockout Stage picking, in addition to the Overall competition

MATCHDAY 3 COMMENTS

Maradona Moxie Award
Boldest pick WITH a comment. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@jhctr (Survivor: MEX, CAN, USA): "[No comment]"
Commish says: I'm breaking a Moxie rule (must have a comment) because never has picking THE ENTIRE CONTINENT OF NORTH AMERICA been as Moxie-riddled as it is this week. North America has not won a SINGLE GAME so far at the World Cup. We have 0 wins, 3 losses, and 3 ties. We are -6 in goal differential. Canada has already been eliminated. YOU GET ON WITH YOUR BAD MOXIE SELF, @jhctr!!

Best of the rest

@judigregry (Survivor: NET, MOR, URU): "As long as Andy Dalton isn’t starting, then I’m feeling good!!"
Commish says: Can you imagine Andy Dalton out there on the pitch for literally any World Cup team? Even Denmark it'd be like "YO WHO IS THAT TALL BEEFY RED ROCKET"? I'm not even gonna get started with some other countries.

@mconnaughton (Eliminated): "What’s worse losing your survivor on your third pick or waking up at 5am and watching it happen?"
Commish says: Depends on whether you woke up and made yourself tea, hot chocolate, or the Swiss Mexican Morning Fiesta (coffee, chocolate, and Bud Light Lime). DID YOU MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICE?

@yjcc (Eliminated): "It was a terrible week for me in sports. First, I predicted my drop from the top 10 in Wilt OAD because I became aware I was doing well and would be unable to use my winning strategy of picking randomly. I tried to emulate it by taking a riskier pick but I was unfortunately right. THEN, OSU only plays one half of football. THEN, we lose the Shillelagh to @TheCommish which triggered only a mild depression because Caleb Williams was just so impressive. Did I mention I INVERSE Hedge of Happiness'd all those picks? I never learn. THEN, Korea lost to Ghana with the heartrate metrics to prove I have never been more stressed on a Monday morning. Do I dare hope for the USMNT? A must-win Korea v Portugal? Makes me worried about getting a dog because this is what happens to things I care about."
Commish says: Pretty sure if you posted this to Reddit along with your home address, you'd receive no fewer than 63 dogs at your front door within a week. Thank me later.

Yours in Golden Boots,
The Commish