Friends in fútbol,

Plainly, this was the best Group Stage ever for Asian and African teams.

So often, the Round of 16 is a series of matchups between European and South American teams. And hey, if you want Goliath matchups, that's what you want.

In 2022? Pick your David. Japan, Korea, Morocco, Senegal, and Australia advanced. Germany, Belgium, Uruguay, and Mexico did not.

The BEST any of us did in the Pickles Pick'em was 13 correct out of 16 picks. And now the Knockout Stage. FRESH LIFE. Let's do this thing.

 

ROUND OF 16 PICKS

• Pickles Pick'em
  • Summary | Round of 16 Standings
• Pelé Processional Bracket
  • Summary | Standings
• Old Man Buffon Survivor
  • Summary | Round of 16 Standings | Golden Spreadsheet
• Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)

 

Given the "David over Goliath" theme of the Group Stage, it's no surprise it was a Survivor bloodbath.

We started with 790 steely combatants, and Old Man Buffon Survivor is down to just 31 brave souls heading into the Round of 16.

It was Matchday 2 that really did us in. We hit on 87% of our picks in M1 and 80% of our picks in M3... but just 57% of our picks in M2. The biggest blows were Wales' loss to Iran and Japan's loss to Costa Rica.

Japan was a wrecking ball while producing perhaps the strangest Group Stage performance in World Cup history. The #24 team in FIFA's World Rankings, Japan beat Spain (#7) and Germany (#11) while losing to Costa Rica (#31)
ON THEIR OWN, they knocked out 8% of us in M1, 47% in M2, and 10% in M3.

Did they secretly hire Jameis Winston as their team psychologist?!

In the Pickles Pick'em, our average Group Stage performance was just 10/16.

Why? Look no further than the rate at which we picked these advancing countries:

• Japan: 6.5%, lowest of any advancing team
• Australia: 6.8%
• Morocco: 8.4%, lowest in Group F
• Korea: 11.6%, lowest in Group H

Our four Group Stage co-champions - @comenayeaha, @Kpabst, @SarjeantKaiser, and @mschermerhorn406 - needed to get at least one of that quartet right AND all of the more predictable results right. @comenayeaha pegged two of the above four (Korea and Morocco).

The 62-person tie for Group Stage 5th place at 12/16 will need to be broken by cumulative Group Stage Margin of Victory (same as cumulative goal differential for all your picks) to determine who finishes in the money (top 20). Commish will email you all with those results shortly.

And lastly, before we get into Round of 16 pick stats and comment awards, a note on Bracket viewing...

You can view ANYONE's bracket by just replacing the username in the URL with the username of the person you want to see.

For example, this is my bracket. And this is The GM's bracket.

Clicking on usernames in the Bracket standings pages will also show you their bracket!

 

PICK STATS

 

Pickles Pick'em

• Brazil was our top Group Stage pick (literally 100% pick rate), and it's once again our top pick in the Round of 16
• 97% of us are on Seleção to beat Korea on Monday
• For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight's model gives Korea an 18% win probability - tied with Poland for second lowest in this round
• The lowest win probability? Australia, at 17%. We picked their opponent, Argentina, at 96% - almost as high as Brazil
• Our closest matchup, by far, is Japan (53%) vs. Croatia (47%). Next is USA (64%) vs. Netherlands (36%) and Portugal (69%) vs. Switzerland (31%)
• As I always say in our NFL pick'em, you need to win these "toss-up" matchups to have a shot at a pick'em interval crown
• So if you go 3-0 in those three closest matchups, you're in great shape. If you go 2-1, you've still got a shot. If you go 1-2 or 0-3, you'll probably need to be picking some bold upsets in the Quarterfinals

Old Man Buffon Survivor

• We're down to just 31 - a measley 4% of what we started with - each making two picks in this round
• Each survivor has already burned 9 teams, many of which are playing in the Round of 16. So now it's REALLY about both surviving this round and being right about your expected matchups in subsequent rounds
• Our picks are REALLY distributed in the Round of 16. Commish loves to see it!
• At the time of writing (midnight), England (vs. Senegal) and Spain (vs. Morocco) each have 12 picks (39% of survivors)
• Argentina (vs. Australia) was next with 10 picks
• Using the Golden Spreadsheet as our guide, only five survivors even had Netherlands available going into the Knockout Stage
• That was the lowest availability rate, followed by Senegal (six had them available), Croatia (11), USA (13), and Poland (15)
• On the other end, all 31 had Japan; 28 had Spain, France, and Australia; and 25 had favorites Brazil
• In the opening match we have one person on each side of USA-Netherlands
• And the juiciest match: We have 5 on Croatia and 4 on their opponents Japan
• Rarely, if ever, do we see that "both sides with meaningful pick volume" scenario in a survivor competition

Pelé Processional Bracket

• 40% of us have Brazil winning it all
• Brazil-France is easily our most popular Final matchup prediction
• 60% of us have Brazil in the final and 88% of us have Brazil in the semis
• Our next most popular champion picks: France (17%), Argentina (15%), Spain (8%), England (8%)
• 4% of us are taking USA all the way
• The only teams without a single champion pick (as of midnight): Australia, Korea, Poland, Senegal
• 49% of our brackets are unique, meaning only one person has that exact set of picks
• The most people we have on the same bracket is just 13 - chalk (all favorites) with Croatia winning the Round of 16 toss-up with Japan
• 10 brackets are also chalk but with Japan beating Croatia
• Commish will do more Bracket stats and analysis as we go. This email is already loaded!

 

WEEKLY AWARDS

 

Maradona Moxie Award
Boldest pick WITH a comment. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@mtpatton09 (Bracket: USA, ARG, JPN, BRA, FRA, SEN, MOR, POR | ARG, JPN, SEN, POR | JPN, POR | JPN): "Anybody know how to say moxie in Japanese?!"
Commish says: Oh my god. You really picked Japan to win it all. I don't know how to say Moxie, but Google Translate tells me ヒーロー is how you say "Hero"

 

Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)

@suckitspanos (Bracket: USA, ARG, JPN, BRA, FRA, ENG, MOR, SWI | USA, JPN, ENG, SWI | USA, ENG | USA): "When the football-soccer Gods convened and mercifully decided that not only will they spare Christian Pulisic's nuts filled with generations of future US World Cup Soccer swimmers, but they'd also send the US lads forward to the Group stage, you don't question the Gods' divine decision. In fact, you embrace it, as I have, and you recognize they're going all the way to the main event and then on to immortality! Why wait for 2026, let's get it done now boys! USA----USA----USA!!!"
Commish says: SZN rule #32: DO NOT CHALLENGE THE SPORTING GODS THEY ARE ALWAYS RIGHT LOOK FOR SIGNS BE HUMBLE. No, the rulebook does not have punctuation. No, it's not printed in comic sans.

 

"Watch Me Dive" Award
Most convincing comment.

@LasLiLo1432 (The Pickles Pick'em): "U.S. scores two goals in three games to advance to the knockout stage, and I need more upsets if I want to get back into this competition. So U.S. beats Netherlands, Poland beats France, and Morocco beats Spain."
Commish says: REPEAT AFTER COMMISH: To win a Pick'em interval, you need to get several upset picks correct! (And YES, when you're behind in the Overall, bold picks like this is the only shot you have at ascending the throne!)

 

Insulting Zizou's Sister Award
The spiciest/wildest take.

@Jmickley1 (The Pickles Pick'em): "Which team does Chris Paul play for?"
Commish says: The one that dives all the time OH WAIT

 

MORE COMMENTS

@rstpaul (Survivor: ENG, POR): "Nobody paints baby into a corner like I have."
Commish says: Let me get this straight: Of the 8 teams in the bottom half of the bracket, you've now picked France, England, Portugal, Morocco, and Switzerland. Is your baby named SPAINMUSTWIN?!

 

@BOLTS (The Pickles Pick'em): "WILL SOCCER EVER GET A PENALTY BOX!?"
Commish says: Can you imagine sending Ronaldo to the penalty box? The tantrum he'd have? Wait a minute... does this make me want a penalty box? PENALTY BOX 2026!!!

 

@GreenBowbPackers (Bracket: NET, ARG, CRO, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, SWI | ARG, BRA, FRA, ESP | ARG, FRA | ARG): "Messi finally gets his Cup"
Commish says: A USA-ARG quarterfinal would be one of the biggest Hedge of Happiness matchups ever. Of course we'd all want USA to win, but if they fell short, almost everyone would immediately pivot to Messi being two wins away from glory.

 

@rkhendren (Bracket: USA, ARG, JPN, BRA, FRA, SEN, ESP, POR | ARG, BRA, FRA, POR | ARG, POR | POR): "I called it before the tournament, and I'll call it again. Portugal v Argentina final. Goat debate decided!"
Commish says: I hereby certify that you DID call this several weeks ago. And I am on record saying, without hyperbole, this would immediately be in the conversation for biggest sporting event in world history.

 

@landonpikkel (The Pickles Pick'em): "This comeback starts now! There will be plenty of people to pick the dutch and not the USA. Morocco is the dark horse that will knock out spain."
Commish says: MOROCCAN SPICE!!!

 

@Keiffapro (The Pickles Pick'em): "Switzerland I love you, but your defense looks like your cheese. "
Commish says: Sure but let's talk about offense. Have you seen that great cheese rolling race? I think it's in England but whatever. If someone's offense looked like that, BET THE HOUSE!!

 

@judigregry (Survivor: ARG, JPN): "I can’t believe I made it this far. Football let me down this year but fútbol is a kick!"
Commish says: Commish says: You are picking like someone with nothing to lose, which is EXACTLY how you need to pick to win a SZN survivor competition. Japan in the Round of 16!

 

@Tijani (Bracket: USA, ARG, JPN, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, SWI | ARG, BRA, ENG, ESP | BRA, ENG | BRA): "It ain't coming home but it'll be close "
Commish says: If it's Brazil-England in the final, I'm booking a flight to London just to experience the agony. (On the off chance England brings it home, the ecstasy would be cool, too.)

 

@Noteldar (Bracket: NET, ARG, CRO, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, POR | NET, BRA, ENG, ESP | BRA, ENG | BRA): "I’m going with the favorites - my boldest pick will be the choice of lobster after I win the sweet $1k"
Commish says: Do fancy ass lobster restaurants sell Bud Light Lime? Asking for a friend

 

@BigDaddy (The Pickles Pick'em): "USA USA USA! BigDaddy Bandwagoner"
Commish says: Hey Dad, did you know USA wears the same colors as the Buffalo Bills? And did you know that NOBODY CIRCLES THE WAGONS LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS? Did you?!?!

 

@StatCzar (The Pickles Pick'em): "If America manages to win all of Europe has to use Fahrenheit for at least 6 months. Those are the rules. "
Commish says: No no no how about this: We get to STEAL the entire metric system and use it ourselves. Can you imagine? What a coup! If only we could have won the World Cup 300 years ago!!!

 

@YikesVikes (The Pickles Pick'em): "What's the worst thing that can happen to a USA world cup player? To have no goal in life. And 1 more: A England soccer player goes to the doctor and says "It hurts when I touch my face, elbow, and knee." The doctor says, "You've broken your finger". That's all folks."
Commish says: I can't decide if the over/under on number of times you've told these jokes in the bar you own is 0.5 or more like 99.5

 

@Manfresh (The Pickles Pick'em): "All that running around makes me tired just by watching "
Commish says: I played outside midfielder growing up (4-4-2 formation, for those learning the sport via this World Cup), and I've since coined outside mid the most thankless position in all of sports. You are expected to run - often sprint - basically the entire game, you make endless runs down the sideline without having the ball passed to you, and you get blamed mercilessly for the ONE time you don't run back to mark your guy when he magically gets the ball. It's athletic masochism.

 

@untitandelafc (The Pickles Pick'em): "Hey Commish, maybe you should start a wager for additional minutes after 90. Who's got 17?"
Commish says: Ugh. Definitely a (the?) lowlight in this World Cup. Who thought that was a good idea?!

 

@Krobbletini (The Pickles Pick'em): "I'm sorry US. "
Commish says: USA: Ok fine but you picked JAPAN? What gives?!

 

@MikeBakrevski (Bracket: USA, ARG, CRO, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, POR | ARG, BRA, FRA, ESP | ARG, ESP | ARG): "I let my fiancée, who knows less than nothing about soccer, choose each winner because I haven’t won anything in the SZN for 5 years. She has (and I quote) “divined the France England winner by seeing the French flag when closing eyes” so if we win this, I think I chose the right girl. "
Commish says: Wait wait did she narrate EVERY pick? If you go 7-1 or 8-0 in the Round of 16, then we need recalling of additional soundbites. (Also, YOUR WIN IS COMING I CAN FEEL IT.)

 

@Camron (Bracket: USA, ARG, CRO, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, POR | ARG, BRA, FRA, ESP | BRA, FRA | FRA): "Mbappé, bop, bop, Mbappé, yeaa yeaa"
Commish says: If Mbappé was 10 years older, almost guaranteed he and Hanson would have been in a Doritos commercial by now. Likely during a Super Bowl.

 

@Skinsfan03 (Bracket: USA, ARG, JPN, BRA, FRA, ENG, ESP, POR | ARG, BRA, ENG, POR | BRA, ENG | BRA): "At least we get Ronaldo-Messi in the Third Place game…"
Commish says: Oh my god. Can you IMAGINE how pissed they'd be to be facing off in the most meaningless game?

 

@Pattrick11 (Bracket: USA, AUS, JPN, BRA, FRA, ENG, MOR, POR | USA, BRA, FRA, POR | BRA, POR | BRA): "not enouggh bounce passes from GGregg Berhalterr to make the final. "
Commish says: Wait is this what your username means? It's just a bit?!

 

@Jacksoncparr (Bracket: NET, ARG, JPN, BRA, POL, SEN, ESP, SWI | NET, BRA, SEN, SWI | NET, SWI | NET): "It’s not that hard"
Commish says: If Netherlands beats Switzerland in the final, as you've predicted, you are the new Commish and I forever relinquish the notion that the survivor gods matter.

 

@Zevkesef (Bracket: NET, ARG, CRO, BRA, FRA, SEN, MOR, POR | NET, BRA, FRA, MOR | BRA, FRA | FRA): "Did I really just go chalk and pick yet another brazil v france final? And a repeat champion!? You damn right I did. Eff the so-called rules. "
Commish says: MOROCCO IS NOT CHALK

 

@rileytagtmeyer (Bracket: USA, ARG, CRO, BRA, POL, ENG, MOR, SWI | USA, CRO, ENG, MOR | CRO, ENG | ENG): "Not sure how I’m supposed to win this one with zero soccer knowledge and no time to contemplate over BLLs. BUT I made the $ in a comp (Fitz) after 6? years of TheSZN so now I’m buying EVERYONE gift SZNs for Christmas and I’m now in for life. "
Commish says: I DIDN'T KNOW SANTA WAS SO DAMN COOL AND ALSO NAMED RILEY

 

@anselmclinard (The Pickles Pick'em): "If you can't pick em, poke em. "
Commish says: UM. OK SURE CARRY ON.

 

@BigFurryWookiee (The Pickles Pick'em): "TASTE THAT CHALK"
Commish says: NO I HATE IT

 

@allenraines (The Pickles Pick'em): "F***ing taco"
Commish says: THE TACO WAS FLAWLESS ON THE BALL TODAY LAY OFF

 

 

 

Yours in Golden Boots,
The Commish