Friends in football,
One of the best parts about $5,030 going to the WeeWoo winner(s) every week from Thanksgiving to Christmas is that, even with a logjam, people still get PAID.
Tom Brady and the Bucs' improbable comeback win Monday Night meant 38 of us went 14-0-1 (thanks, Giants-Commanders). But $5,030 split 38 ways is still $132 each.
That's four 30-racks of Bud Light Lime. That's SEVEN future SZNs. That's 66 tickets to a Houston Texans game. (What's that? Oh they're paying YOU to go to those games now? Got it.)
MAKE YOUR WEEK 14 PICKS
- BFIG Survivor >>
- WeeWoo Pick'em >>
- FitzMagic Survivor >>
- Pick deadline: 5:15pm PT Thursday (12/8)
As you can imagine with 38 perfect records, the NFL once again went almost exactly to script in Week 13.
It's truly been a tale of two seasons: When NOTHING went to script, and when EVERYTHING went to script.
More than half of our BFIG survivors went Browns-Seahawks - a non-playoff team and a fringe playoff team - and got away with it despite the Browns not scoring an offensive touchdown and the Seahawks trailing with under a minute to go.
It's almost as if the survivor gods CAN feel pity. Key word: Almost.
That sets up a fascinating set of survivor decisions in Week 14. SIX of the 13 games have current Vegas spreads of at least 6 points. It looks a heck of a lot like "safety".
But, when you consult the Golden Spreadsheet, you see some juicy decisions in the making:
- The Chiefs are 9-point favorites (at Broncos), but no one can pick them because they're 100% picked out
- The Bills are 9-point favorites (vs Jets), but are available to just ONE person
- The Eagles are 7-point favorites (at Giants), but are also available to just ONE person
- The Cowboys are whopping 17-point favorites (vs Texans), but are available to just two people
- The Bengals and Raiders are both 6-point favorites, but already used by 81% and 78% of BFIG survivors, respectively
Six big favorites... that have already been used by most everyone.
18 of our 32 survivors have used ALL six of those teams.
The rest of the Week 14 schedule? Good luck...
BFIG RECAP
Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes | Golden Spreadsheet
We went from 33 to 32 after several thrilling comeback wins broke in our favor. Only the Chargers loss felled one person.
"John Wolford Rising (almost)"
Seattle was our second biggest pick (58% pick rate)... as the road team in a divisional game. You know how Commish feels about this, and it almost stung us for seemingly the 20th time this SZN. The Rams looked competent for a change, even if their QB still did not (Wolford was 14/26 for 178 yards with two picks and no TDs). It took a Geno-to-Metcalf TD with 41 seconds left for 58% of BFIG to breathe a sigh of relief.
WEEWOO RECAP
Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes
It's PARTY TIME. 42 entered MNF's tilt between the Saints and Bucs with an umblemished record. 38 had the Bucs. Four had the Saints. It would have been a BIG party for the Saints pickers had they held on. Instead, Brady threw for two TDs in the final 3:03 to win the game by 1 point. As Commish wrote in the lead, $5,030 split 38 ways is still $132 each.
"It could have looked a LOT different"
The Jets had two chances late to beat the Vikings. The Ravens squeaked out a supremely ugly 10-9 win over the Broncos. The Bucs should have lost. The Browns didn't score an offensive TD. The Seahawks needed a final minute comeback. Don't start thinking you need to get chalky. Don't you do it.
FITZMAGIC RECAP
Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes | Golden Spreadsheet
We went from 180 to 167 after what Commish believes was our best 2-pick week in FitzMagic (fka "Second Chance") Survivor history.
"Could this actually go the distance?"
That was an unfathomable question just a few weeks ago. But it's gotten suddenly crowded in FitzMagicLand with 10 picks to go in the regular season. The Golden Spreadsheet isn't AS menacing as it is for BFIG. Better start some serious advance planning, folks...
Stat of the week: Deshaun Watson isn't yet good at football again. That is all.
Yours in football,
The Commish