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NFL Week 14 Picks

by @TheGM 🏈  NFL Free ⚡

Friends in football,

The calm waters stretch of 2022 BFIG ends today. Or did it officially end Thursday with the "Baker just got off the plane" game?

Seven BFIGers had the Raiders available. Seven took them. Seven, presumably, watched with horror as Baker, on his third team this season and with all of 48 hours to study the playbook, drove the Rams 98 yards with no timeouts for a game-winning touchdown.

With that, BFIG is down to 25. And it'll drop lower today.

 

WEEK 14 PICKS

 

Commish knows it'll drop lower because The Law of Necessity Pick Thermodynamics is in play.

No, the word "Thermodynamics" isn't actually a part of it. But Commish IS exorbitantly well-studied in the science of NFL Survivor.

The Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles are all big favorites today. The problem is almost nobody has them available to pick.

Enter necessity picks. You do it because it's the "best" of what's available. You don't feel good about it. You wear your lucky shirt. You bow a little deeper to your Ochocinco fathead.

23 are on the Titans in a divisional matchup (vs. Jags) where they're barely favored. 11 are on the Seahawks (vs. CAR) where they're barely favored.

Eight are on the Steelers in arguably THE most brutal division matchup of this generation (vs. Ravens) where they're barely favored.

Lombardispeed out there today, my football friends.

 

PICK STATS

 

BFIG Survivor

  • After finally getting our first Majority Pick of 2022 last week (Browns over Texans), we made another one this week (Titans over Jags)
  • 23 (74%) are on Tennessee, surpassing the 70% threshold in two-pick weeks
  • Next up: 36% on Seahawks (vs. Panthers), 26% on Steelers (vs. Ravens), 23% on Raiders (vs. Rams), and 13% on Bengals (vs. Browns)
  • All three people who had the Cowboys available took them vs. the Texans
  • The one person who had the Bills available took them vs. the Jets
  • The one person who has the Eagles available did NOT take them. Granted, they're a road team in a divisional tilt (at Giants). But they're still the Eagles
  • STRATEGY at play

 

WeeWoo Pick'em

  • We have a new biggest pick of the year
  • A comical 98.8% of us took the Cowboys over the Texans - the highest percentage of the year and one of the highest percentages ever
  • The Law of Moxie and Drunkenness (I'm just making shit up today) basically guarantees that any NFL team you trot out there is gonna get at least 1% of people to pick them. For shits and giggles, if nothing else
  • So if 99% is the max, we got damn close with the Cowboys this week
  • Just before halftime, the Cowboys are losing 17-14 to the Texans, by the way
  • Lots of other big picks on the board. The list: Chiefs (98%, at Broncos), Bills (94%, vs. Jets), Seahawks (93%, vs. Panthers), Bengals (91%, vs. Browns), Titans (88%, vs. Jags)
  • It's still an 88% pick rate, but it's noteworthy that our BFIG majority pick is just our sixth biggest pick in WeeWoo
  • Toss-ups: Niners-Bucs (64/36), Vikings-Lions (58/42), Steelers-Ravens (56/44), Pats-Cardinals (51/49)
  • I get the Niners are starting Brock Purdy, but what do we see in the 2022 Bucs?!
  • Also, the Lions are favored in that Vikes-Lions game. Our big Minnesota contingent is repping HARD today

 

FitzMagic Survivor

  • The Raiders were an even bigger pick in Fitz, with 58 (35%) taking the brutal loss on Thursday
  • That means we're already down to 109 in Fitz, and will almost certainly be under 100 by the end of the day
  • Also noteworthy that we were significantly lighter on the Titans, with just a 51% pick rate
  • Still our top pick, but nowhere near a Majority Pick in Fitz
  • The rest of our top picks look similar: Seahawks (34%), Steelers (28%), Bengals (11%)
  • Five had the Cowboys and five took them, meaning Dallas and Miami are our first two picked-out teams in Fitz
  • We have four people on EACH side of Niners-Bucs. Commish cannot explain that one, no matter how hard I try
  • Shout-out to the person who picked the Panthers at the Seahawks!

 

WEEKLY AWARDS

 

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
Boldest pick WITH a comment. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@yjcc (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Cowboys choke to in-state rival. Russell Wilson, miracle mile-high revival. 7th Rnd draftee, Brock Purdy, launches SB trajectory against Tom Brady. This week's picks brought to you by the letter E (major scale: E F# G# A B C# D# E)."
Commish says: Proof of the "Law of Moxie and Drunkenness"! A Texans picker in the wild!!

 

Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Jmkahn (QB: Tannehill): "I just saw some espn+ article about where Andrew Luck is now. I don't pay for espn+, and don't know anyone who would, so I can really only read the first few lines. I was surprised that the article didn't start out "as I entered the pearly gates," seeing as Andrew Luck is currently spending his days throwing passes to the ghost of Reggie Wayne in heaven (or so we thought). Instead, Luck still lives in Indiana despite being born in D.C. and going to Stanford. Now, I went to school at IU and know way too much about the state. I'm not saying Indiana is hell, but it definitely ain't heaven. The deflate-gate-saint walks among us."
Commish says: SZN t-shirt alert! Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne, standing in a field of corn... and also amid prayer candles and a weird ghostly glow, with "Deflate-gate-Saints" in huge font.

 

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@BigJake08 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "If Brock Purdy could beat TCU three times in college he can beat Tom Brady!!?? Or his defense can win the game!"
Commish says: By the Law of... the Law of... I DON'T CARE I AM CONVINCED!!

 

Definitely Not Concussed Award
The spiciest/wildest take.

@mahatma19 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "As I plan to attend the game this Sunday, can I just note that the "battle of Ohio" might have the best *person* at QB facing the worst *person* at QB...but only because Favre actually retired for real this time."
Commish says: Part of me wants Favre to return to the NFL at the age of, what, 55? just so he can face the fans' vitriol. Brett Favre vs. Deshaun Watson is the game the NFL deserves. I bet Jerry Jones would raise his hand to host it.

 

MORE COMMENTS



@Bobby33 (BFIG: Steelers, Titans): "Old mother Hubbard and I only have Kenny Picket and titans in the cupboard"
Commish says: [Raises frosted BLL mug] To emptying out the cupboard at the end of the year!!

 

@tophatwater (Fitz: Steelers, Titans): "Running out of teams to pick! Guess I’m riding with the Titans and Steelers, yikes"
Commish says: @Bobby33, know that you and Mother Hubbard are not alone! @tophatwater is standing strong with you! Or is it standing terrified?

 

@ekahn93 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "The Raiders, Steelers, and Lions are favorites this week?? The NFL has us Hypnotized like Biggie. Making us ask Now who's the real dookie? Meaning, who's really the shit? But these games will be Juicy. Let's dedicate it to all the teachers that told them they'd never amount to nothing. To all the people that lived above the buildings that they was hustlin' in front of called the police on me when they was just tryin' to make some money to feed their daughter. And all the teams in the struggle. You know what I'm saying? It's all good baby baby"
Commish says: WAIT WHY DID YOU STOP

 

@TheMyT (Swami: Vikings): "Brady's got a new love in sight
But his team is not looking right
Their struggles pile up, day by day
Oh TB12, what more can you say?"
Commish says: YOU TAKING VINYL PRE-ORDERS?

 

@crashNburn (Swami: 49ers): "To dislike Brady or to like Brady, that is the question ... Tom Brady sat on a wall, Tom Brady had a great fall, all the Bucs horses and all the Bucs linemen, couldn't put Brady back together again! ... I hope you have guessed my answer!"
Commish says: Why was I not invited to the first ever gathering of The SZN Poets Society? We are INSPIRED this week.

 

@Scojo117 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Since I am sitting comfortably in 3804th place this week I'm throwing technical analysis out the window this week! New strategy - Animal vs. animal team pick highest on food chain // Animal team vs. non-animal team pick animal // non-animal vs non-animal pick cutest cheerleaders // I'll take the $5030 in small bills!!"
Commish says: Do you have an official animal food chain rankings? If you put a leatherbound cover on it and titled it "THE FOOTBALL PICKING GOSPEL", could you sell it for $100 on Amazon? Am I asking rhetorical questions? OK HOW ABOUT $1,000?

 

@DSchill (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "My 2 brothers and I are legally blind. Yep, we won the freaking gene pool. Don't you think after 45 years of living like this I could be granted a pick'em pool win by the gambling gods? C'mon, daddy needs a new pair of cheap sunglasses. And if I win, I might actually buy my loser brothers a Christmas gift."
Commish says: I think there's a crucial thing you've been missing during your time here. The SZN is not gambling, but a sports multimedia funapoolza picking extravaganza. So I would advise stopping the prays to the gambling gods, and start praying to the sports multimedia funapoolza picking extravaganza gods. The wins will FLOW.

 

@Bobby_Shan (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I forgot to pick last week (Rookie Mistake), friendly side-bet/competing overall pick record with my Uncle, and this old man goes UNDEFEATED. So naturally, this week I will be PERFECT."
Commish says: How are the old man's biceps and how hard has he been flexing them this week

 

@Pulpsnotbad (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Change your stars."
Commish says: Pulpsnotbad aka Zen Baker Mayfield

 

@zachewing (BFIG: Bills, Bengals): "Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing"
Commish says: This, from a man who saved the Bills and feels GOOD about it. So good he's like "I'ma right a damn poem".

 

@BigPache (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Cash money, ain’t nothin’ funny"
Commish says: You're rhyming with "Cash money" and you didn't even use your name "BigPache"? NEW ONE NEXT WEEK

 

@ToddFather808 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): ""In Purdy We Trust""
Commish says: DOES THE $100 BILL NEED A NEW FACE?

 

@Moondogs (Swami: Pats): "Inspired by Brady's post-game LFGs on the prior Monday Night, Mac Jones throws for three TDs and runs for one. He ends the game by taking a knee and as he runs off the field he yells, "LFG!!!!". Twice."
Commish says: If he yells it three times you're getting 51 SWAMI POINTS THIS WEEK.

 

@kbanaian (QB: Geno): "Panther fans are going to watch this one and ask how many Genos can you buy for a Baker."
Commish says: Baker saw this. Raiders pickers, it's @kbanaian's fault.

 

@Shaggy1 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "What a beautiful, yet f***ing UGLY, DISAPPOINTING, emotional, and difficult as EVER SZN IN ‘22! My life will NEVER be the same. We lost a SZN member on 7/31! My Dad! NEVER to BE FORGOTTEN, I miss him every day! When a piece of your heart is ripped out of your chest, it f***ing HURTS. THE NINERS MIGHT WIN THE WHOLE ENCHILADA for him. My BRAIN is hurt. Note to SZN vets and rookies: if you LOVE someone, TELL THEM NOW AND EVERY CHANCE YOU GET. Chill out now POPS. The American Dream was achieved by YOU! Not many. Thanks Dad, I’ll see you again someday."
Commish says: We've had touching emotional tributes to the losses of Grandma Stat Czar and now Poppa Shaggy. To anyone with heavy feelings this holiday season, I hope we're able to provide some light and levity in your life.

 

@jennygjennyg (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "The Jets are going to the Super Bowl!"
Commish says: MORE FIRE. MORE PASSION.

 

@Concats09 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Lenny the Birthday Boy!!!!"
Commish says: HAPPY BIRTHDAY LENNY!

 

@Mriz12 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I’m broke"
Commish says: BUT COMMISH LOVES YOU

 

@MONSTERXXX (Swami: Bucs): "WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"
Commish says: TOM BRADY DOES NOT WOO (or does he? Does Tom Brady woooo? IS MONSTERXXX ACTUALLY TOM BRADY?!)

 

 

Yours in football,
The Commish

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