Friends in football,

Commish's annual interview with our BFIG champ is below. It's a good one, with insight into our champ's picking strategy, and proof of the razor-thin difference between ultimate glory and early defeat.

But first, let's tip our hat to @SmockDraft, who was the lone FitzMagic Survivor combatant to go 2-0 in Week 16 (Bucs, Chargers) and thus takes home the title.

In Weeks 14 and 15, @SmockDraft deployed the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles - meaning both our BFIG and Fitz Survivor champs saved some of the best teams for the very end... and it paid off handsomely.

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THE ANNUAL INTERVIEW

Commish sits down with the BFIG champ

@TheCommish: You're a SZN rookie. What were your expectations going in?

@zachewing: Literally none. I saw a link on social media, joined on a whim and made my first pick on Sunday morning about an hour before kickoff. Then I picked the Saints, who deserved to lose in every way, in Week 1. I did start to take it seriously pretty quickly, but yeah, I wouldn't have blinked if I had been out that first week.

Commish: You went 19-0. From 2011 through 2018, I won a total of 10 games in BFIG. I'm not sure this is a question.

Zach: Well, here's a question for you: What is so hard about this?

Commish: You just cursed yourself into a Week 1 loss in 2023. So, how did you celebrate? Do you have a unified theory of Bud Light Lime?

Zach: I did some whooping and hollering, hugged my wife and kids and called some friends. Then we went out to dinner and ordered the expensive drinks. (If that's too boring, just know my alterego took experimental drugs and skinny-dipped in the neighbor's pool.)

Commish: GET YOUR ALTER EGO IN BFIG 2023! Have you done a lot of Survivor competitions before? Would you say you have a Survivor strategy?

Zach: I wasn't just a SZN rookie. I actually had NEVER entered a Survivor pool for money before. I am a veteran sports bettor, fantasy player, poker player, etc. so I follow the league closely and understand the strategy of leverage. That helped me refrain from taking the Bills and Chiefs of the world early. Admittedly, though, when I used the Rams and Packers early, I thought I was using up good teams and ended up lucky that other teams were better picks later on.

Commish: Heading into Week 14, you had the Bengals, Bills, and Eagles still available. You knew you were in good position. But did you ever think "I'm the favorite"?

Zach: I guess so, but favorite is such a relative term here. There were 32 of us left, so even if I have DOUBLE the chance of the next-best guy, that's like 6% to win. I did realize that in Week 13, getting through on the chalk picks of Browns and Seahawks was risky but would also really set me up well. Never did I think it would end just a week later, though.

Commish: As Week 14's upsets were unfolding, when was the first moment you thought, "Shit, I might win this"?

Zach: I went to bed the previous Monday night pissed off when the Saints blew their lead agaist the Bucs, because it let 10 people survive who should have been out. But then on Thursday, the Rams did the exact same thing to the Raiders — same score and everything. I looked at the table of picks and realized at that point that I could actually end it Sunday. It was gonna take a 5-way parlay, so I certainly didn't expect it, but I knew it was possible. On Sunday, everything happened so fast it was hard for me to get all that nervous. There was a two-minute stretch before halftime where the Bills, Bengals and Jags all scored TDs, and that was the first time I let myself think, "Things are really going well here." After the early games ended, I went outside to toss the football to my boys (10 and 7) to get my mind off of it. By the time I went back in, Seattle was already losing 17-7.

Commish: All hail Sam Darnold! In Week 1, as a SZN rookie, you violated two Survivor Golden Rules in picking a road team in a divisional game (Saints, at Falcons). The Saints were down 26-10 in the 4th and somehow won the game. You didn't pick another road team till Week 11. Did that experience rattle you?

Zach: I knew picking road teams regularly isn't a winning strategy, though home-field advantage is at a lower point now than it ever has been. But yeah, as I said before, I didn't put a ton of thought into that Week 1 pick. Looking back on it, it was stupid and just happened to be the stroke of luck I needed.

Commish: Do you now laugh in the face of the Survivor Gods?

Zach: Me and the Survivor Gods are pals now. The IPAs hit different on Mount Olympus.

Commish: Do you think The Eliface is a Survivor God?

Zach: Absolutely. In fact, maybe I've been ignoring a key to my victory. My company is in partnership with Caesars Sportsbook, so I briefly met Peyton and Eli at a commercial shoot in New Orleans in July. They signed a football for my son. So maybe The Eliface was on my side the whole time? Makes you think.

Commish: CAN YOU GET ELI IN THE POOL?!? While you consider that, any advice or parting words for us?

Zach: I wrote a column for our website about the experience and we did a YouTube podcast, so check it out if you want more of my drivel. Oh, and in case you needed more evidence it was simply my year, my picks for Week 15 probably would have been Philadelphia and Minnesota. Not even a 33-0 deficit could keep me down.

WEEWOO RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes

In our final week of the elevated $5,030 weekly haul, nobody went a perfect 16-0 but we had six people go 15-1 and split the title. One, @tfinnah, was 15-0 going into MNF but had the Colts upsetting the Chargers, which didn't play out. Congrats to @Mikebud31, @Shamezvirani, @Tenneyka, @Wisco612, @rydstein, and @tfinnah.

"Chalk at the top, upsets below." 

Our top six picks all won (Chiefs, Bills, Niners, Ravens, Bengals, Bucs), but after that it was an upset feast. The Lions (our 7th biggest pick), Titans (8th), Browns (10th), and Dolphins (12th) all lost. As Commish always says, there's value every week in picking the "upsets" that aren't all that big of an upset. We were 86% on the Lions, for example, while Vegas only rated them a 4-point favorite over Carolina.

FITZMAGIC RECAP

Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes | Golden Spreadsheet

We went from 4 to 1 after the Broncos (@JSmooth), Lions (@DinsyTheGreek), and Jets (@Steventhelegs) felled everyone except our champ, @SmockDraft.

"It was a legendary year for saving the good teams"

Our BFIG champ was the only person to save the Bengals, Bills, and Eagles as long as he did. Our Fitz champ was the only person to save the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles as long as they did. It doesn't ALWAYS work out so nicely, but this was a banner year for taking earlier risks so you could deploy the big boys when it mattered most.

Stat of the week: 2-for-2. That's Commish's record in predicting when BFIG (Week 14) and Fitz Survivor (Week 16) would end. You can look it up in the Week 11 PICKS email or website post. Turns out I've been doing this for a long time. What should I predict next?!

Yours in football,
The Commish