Friends in football,
Commish and The SZN team have our thoughts with Damar Hamlin and his family. I hope he makes it, and I hate that I have to express a sentiment like that when we're talking about a young man's life.
Football owes its popularity, at least in part, to its brutality. We can still be fans of the NFL while acknowledging that players are literally putting their lives on the line each week - be it in the game itself or with the sport's grizzly after-effects once their playing careers are over.
As a service that supplies NFL entertainment to all of you, it's our job to continue forward.
You can read about how we're handling Week 17 - and specifically picks on the Bills-Bengals game that has been indefinitely postponed - in the pinned post atop our homepage feed.
I acknowledge that our competition outcomes are wildly inconsequential as compared to what Damar and his family are currently going through. With that said, our "normal" update email is below.
MAKE YOUR WEEK 18 PICKS
- Go to your competitions page >>
- SPECIAL Pick deadline: 1:30pm PT Saturday (1/7)
There's no "good" transition here, so we're just gonna get on with it.
Let's talk "best in SZN history" for a minute.
The most legendary pick in SZN history remains @owskijazz taking the 0-8 Jags in 2013 BFIG when 80% of survivors were on their opponent, the 4-4 Titans. The Jags won.
The most legendary streak is EASILY the 39-game BFIG winning streak @Calacci put together in winning 2019's crown and finishing T2 in 2020.
But the best single SZN of all-time? We might have a new emperor atop that throne.
That's right. This year's BFIG champ, @zachewing, is currently 5th in the season-long WeeWoo standings. He also won a share of the Week 14 WeeWoo title.
Even if he falters a bit in Week 18 (don't bet on it), winning BFIG while also finishing top 10 in the season-long WeeWoo race AND claiming a WeeWoo weekly title... yeah, that would qualify as the greatest single SZN performance in our history.
For those of you questioning whether @zachewing is human, Commish sat down with him for an interview last week. You can read it here. He is most definitely human, and was THIS close to losing his Week 1 BFIG pick.
NOW, let's look at the top of the Overall WeeWoo leaderboard with 16 (maybe 17) games left to play:
- 1st: @Pinok611 (178 wins, 13-2 in Week 17)
- 2nd: @jsballa32442 (177 wins, 13-2 in Week 17)
- 3rd: @holycontejas (176 wins, 14-1 in Week 17)
- 4th: @DJRedemptionTour (175 wins, 13-2 in Week 17)
- 5th: @zachewing (174 wins, 13-2 in Week 17)
It's highly unlikely our champ will come from more than four games back at this point, so Commish will focus his analysis efforts on this group.
If you're @Pinok611, the odds-on strategy is to pick every single favorite in Week 17 and hope the people trailing you don't nail their upset picks.
Alas, one game - Jets at Dolphins - is a "pick'em" (meaning Vegas doesn't favor either team). So @Pinok611 can't fully flee to safety if safety is what they covet.
If you're @zachewing, sitting 4 games back, you must stare at yourself in the mirror and ask whether you care more about top 5 placement or about the potential glory of a dual BFIG-WeeWoo crown.
Because he should expect to need to get at LEAST three upsets correct - plus that Dolphins-Jets game correct - to end up on top. And if he's truly gunning for the "all or nothing" glory option, he should probably pick 4+ upsets given the game theory dynamics above him.
What do I mean by that? Well, the people in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ALSO know they'll likely need correct upset predictions in order to wear the WeeWoo crown. And if @zachewing makes the same upset picks as the people in front of him, he can't gain any ground.
Perhaps the most fascinating set of choices are in the hands of 2nd place @jsballa32442. Do you go all favorites and hope your Dolphins-Jets pick is opposite the leader? Do you pick a single upset? Do you pick three upsets, figuring your odds of going 2-1 on upset picks are perhaps better than your odds of going 1-0?
We'll have our answers Saturday afternoon, when Week 18 picks lock.
WEEWOO RECAP
Pick spreadsheet | Game outcomes
We have a sole champ in longtime SZN vet, @RyanBechhold. 15 games were played, and they were the sole person to go 15-0. Ryan nailed Falcons-over-Cards, Pats-over-Dolphins, Seahawks-over-Jets, Packers-over-Vikings, Steelers-over-Ravens, Browns-over-Commanders, and every other game.
"The Great Chalk Comeback continues."
Eight of our top nine favorites won - the lone exception being Philly losing to the Saints - and 12 of our 15 most picked teams emerged victorious. Bengals-Bills was a dead heat, meaning we didn't really have a favorite in that game. When almost all of the favorites win, it's gonna be a successful pick'em week. Our 67% win rate was the fourth best rate of the year - and ALL four of those top four performances have come since Week 9. It was bloodbath after bloodbath in our first eight weeks... and then The Great Chalk Comeback commenced.
Stat of the week: 64 QB starters. That's an NFL record. 64 different guys have started a game at quarterback in 2022, and it's a huge reason the back half of the season has gotten easier to predict. The Cardinals are easier to pick against when it's Trace McSorley or David Blough starting instead of Kyler Murray. And there are many more examples just like this.
Reminder: BFIG ended in Week 14 (picks) and FitzMagic survivor ended in Week 16 (picks).
Yours in football,
The Commish