Friends in football,

First, two programming notes:

1. Picks open TONIGHT for HasselBracket Playoffs Pick'em. Every NFL SZN member gets to play. You just pick the winners before each round. $5K to the champ!
2. Golf SZN starts NEXT WEEK. Picking is as easy as NFL Survivor. 11 different ways to cash. It's one of our biggest SZNs! Join here >>

Now... can we avoid 1 million (yes, 1 million) WeeWoo losses? We're gonna need a strong Week 18 finish.

 

WEEK 18 PICKS

• WeeWoo Pick'em
  • Summary | Weekly Standings
• BFIG
  • Ended in Week 14
• FitzMagic Survivor
  • Ended in Week 16
• Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)

 

On the year, our collective WeeWoo record stands at 1,402,977 - 962,655. That's a 59.3% winning clip, which puts us behind last year (60.6%) and 2019 (61.0%).

37,345 more losses will put us at 1 million for the year.

HEY MA WE LOST A MILLION TIMES BUT STILL DID BETTER THAN BRETT FAVRE THIS YEAR.

To avoid that humbling mark, we need to achieve a win percentage of at least 67.6% in Week 18. That's tough but doable.

We've bettered 67.6% in just three weeks: Week 17 (68.0%), Week 15 (68.2%), and Week 9 (67.8%).

Commish loves when The SZN's sheer size and volume of picks reveals statistical truisms about the NFL. For example, "it's highly unlikely that any large group of people doing an NFL pick'em will fare better than a 68% win rate in any single week". And, per my paragraphs above, "61% is a natural outcome for an NFL pick'ems season-long win rate".

Oh, and one more: Owners of 3x lifesized Nathan Peterman fatheads tend to produce an average of 0.17 more pick'em wins per week than the general population - the same number as Peterman's career QB rating.

Let's take a look at the picks from our leaders in WeeWoo, Brocket Launcher, and Swami. What scenarios lead to titles?

 

PICK STATS

 

WeeWoo Pick'em

• Here are the Week 18 picks for each of our five Overall leaders (click their usernames to see), along with their win count heading into the week:
  @Pinok611 (178 wins)
  @jsballa32442 (177 wins)
  @holycontejas
  @DJRedemptionTour
  @zachewing
• First, Commish must acknowledge that our leader picked not one but TWO upsets. Even if they're minor upset picks, it's still a gutsy move when holding onto a 1-game lead.
• Those two upsets? Browns over Steelers and Bucs (expected to rest some starters) over Falcons.
• Commish must also state that he LOVES the fact that ALL five of these combatants still have a path to the Overall title. That's the action we like to see!
• 2nd place @jsballa32442 differed from our leader on two games: Steelers over Browns and Texans over Colts in Week 18's toilet bowl.
• If @jsballa32442 wins both of those games, AND the Bucs beat the Falcons, they are the WeeWoo overall champ.
• 3rd place @holycontejas also had the Steelers and Browns, plus the Falcons over the Bucs. If all three of those teams win, @holycontejas wins it all.
• 4th place @DJRedemptionTour went for the glory and Commish loves to see it. Their upset picks: Texans, Bucs, and Browns... PLUS Panthers over Saints, Chargers over Broncos, and Lions over Packers. Gimme six upset picks!!
• 5th place @zachewing (you know, the guy who also won BFIG) is four back of the lead and differed from our leader on... four games (Falcons over Bucs, Browns over Steelers, Rams over Seahawks, and Lions over Packers). Zach can't win it outright, but he can force championship tiebreakers if he wins all four of those.
• Our Week 18 board features seven teams with at least 85% of our picks (Niners, Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Cowboys, Jags). Unsurprisingly, these are all favorites with playoff seeding on the line this week.
• Our toss-ups are Dolphins-Jets (66/34), Saints-Panthers (62/38), and Colts-Texans (60/40)
• If we allowed picking ties in WeeWoo, Colts-Texans would likely be our highest tie prediction count in SZN history.

 

WEEKLY AWARDS

 

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award
Boldest pick. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!

@CooperT6 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I do not like the Cowboys fam
I do not like them, Sam I am
I would not watch them in a box
Nor on TV, not even Fox
I can beat them here or there
I can beat them anywhere
I do not like the Cowboys fam
Commanders win with QB Sam."
Commish says: We love bold picks in the SZN fam.
Whether it's a Cowboys loss or about a well-dressed Cam.
Awesome comment CooperT6.
Wishing you best of luck with all your picks.
But even if you miss everyone on the board.
You can take solace in winning the Moxie Award.

 

Commish Communication Award
Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Lootsdoolb (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Lions carry a 17 point lead into Q4, somehow make every imaginable mistake to surrender the lead. They get the ball back with One. Last. Chance for Goff-Glory… march downfield and lose the game on a last second double-doink. You cannot make this shit up!"
Commish says: But you literally just made this shit up! Hoping you are presently in a parking lot outside Lambeau with a space heater and a carload of t-shirts saying "Goff-Glory." It will be the biggest two word phrase in Detroit since "Mom's spaghetti."

 

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award
Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@berkythe4 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "My brother been saying all year the Lions got the better of the Stafford trade. Seahawks falter and the Lions win a Sunday night thriller in Lambo. Commish cries himself to the sleep. Rodgers gets what he deserves. All is right in the world!"
Commish says: The Rams got a Super Bowl ring so I'm not convinced on that part yet. But Berky, my friend, whether intentional or not, HOW has it never occurred to me that you could spell Lambeau "Lambo" and it somehow makes it even better? BIG GAME LAMBO. LET'S RIDE, KAARON!!

 

Definitely Not Concussed Award
The spiciest/wildest take.

@jeremy (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "All those teams I wrote off just last week looked like they got shot out of confetti cannons full of steroids and BLL. Is it something in the water? Did Brady and Rodgers get younger, crazier girlfriends? Or, in true American fashion, were they just not working hard until they really needed to?"
Commish says: Bring back the "Real Men of Genius' beer commercials and immediately use this as the voiceover. "Why work hard ... until you really need to? Especially when your comeback ... involves Bud Light Lime confetti cannons."

 

 

MORE COMMENTS

@Ziqness (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "F*** it, Pack make an improbable run to the NFC championship game starting now. Only 3 BLLs in and the predictions are coming in hawter then Pete Davidson at a cougar convention!"
Commish says: WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN ALL YEAR? MORE FROM YOU.

 

@DJRedemptionTour (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I've had 17 weeks to think of a comment that was bold, funny, spicy, or convincing, and I've got nothing."
Commish says: We're putting you in the email out of sympathy. But we're expecting you to "redeem" yourself with commenting gold in 2023. Do you hear me HUMAN WITH "REDEMPTION" IN YOUR USERNAME?

 

@SellingVegas (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Like Kenny Loggins crooned threw a haze of glycerin dripping fog effects: “This is it! Don’t be a fool anymore-the waiting is over!” Thank God! What a ridiculous season."
Commish says: Do you know Kenny? Does Kenny like football? GET KENNY LOGGINS IN THE POOL!

 

@Keiffapro (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I can’t believe the NFL has learned nothing from years of sports history, having the Seahawks eliminate the Lions an hour before they start playing is hateful. But I believe Dan Campbell convinces his boys it’s their super bowl anyway, maybe one last chance to give Aaron Rodgers a motor city middle finger."
Commish says: I'm not a UFC fan but would I pay to watch Dan Campbell vs. Aaron Rodgers, bites allowed? DO I ASK RHETORICAL QUESTIONS?

 

@Jmkahn (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I have a spotify playlist titled Flipping Furniture. All of the songs are fast paced and intense, and when you listen to them, they make you want to just flip furniture as you bounce around the room. Don't believe me? Well then you try listening to Holding Out for a Hero, or Kiss With a Fist, or Je Veux te Voir and tell me you don't have a lamp sized hole through the wall"
Commish says: Did you really just share this nugget and NOT give us the playlist link? What kind of savage are you, Kahn?

 

@ekahn93 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I used to have stress dreams before camp where I would get there and realize I forgot to pack or was put in a different bunk than my friends. Well last night I had a stress dream that it was the first round of the playoffs, the Eagles were playing, and I didn't know it. Someone told me it was half time and they were down 14-0. I keep getting older but my anxieties remain the same. The scariest part of all of that is that the Eagles were playing in the first round of the playoffs. I might just have to stay awake for the next 2 weeks so this doesn't happen again."
Commish says: Wait, your brother just let you have a terrible nightmare like this without waking you up? WHAT KIND OF SAVAGE ARE YOU, (OTHER) KAHN?

 

@jst1951 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Save the last dance for me!"
Commish says: Are we dancing to Kahn's furniture flipping playlist or...

 

@Wild_Child2324 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I have the 5 candidates for MVP this season. The list goes as follows: McCaffrey against the Rams, Baker 48 hours notice, Cooper Rush when he hears someone say the Cowboys suck, Tom Brady trailing by a touchdown in the 4th quarter, and #1 Aaron Rodgers against the Bears. Honorable mention to Brock Purdy’s entire season campaign thus far."
Commish says: How can you say you're not a Vikings fan without actually saying it?

 

@YikesVikes (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Nothing really matters, Anyone can see, Nothing really matters, Nothing really matters to me, Any way the wind blows...I'm on a Queen kick, and the Vikes win by a kick'"
Commish says: I featured this because I'd like to take votes on Kirk Cousins' favorite Queen song. I'm going with Bicycle Race. I see Kirk, galavanting around the locker room, proclaiming, "I want to ride my bicycle, I want to ride my bike. I want to ride my bicycle WHEREVER I LIKE. DO YOU LIKE THAT?" Chill, Kirk. Chill.

 

@Trebs (QB: Lawrence): "I'm on board with never trusting the Jags, but I don't see another option at this point. Hang on for 3rd!"
Commish says: A valiant effort, good sir. Singers will sing songs of your deeds.

 

@bowser48 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Early this season I made a prediction that Arizona would be in the Super Bowl in Glendale but not win it . Bad call early on but today I will go on record that Dallas Cowboys will be in the Super Bowl in Glendale. Why stop now, Packers will not make the playoffs, Georgia will cover the spread and my attempt to go 0-16 in WeeHoo will fail again. To all SZN participants, expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed. Good luck to everyone!"
Commish says: We consulted our resident Stat Czar. He tells us that no one has gone winless in a WeeWoo week this year, and also that HE BELIEVS IN YOU. GET IT DONE!!!

 

@Merf (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Adam Schefter is about to tweet that these are actually the first round playoff matchups."
Commish says:  It's time we come clean... Merf is actually ADAM SCHEFTER'S BURNER ACCOUNT.

 

@Wahoophil (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I can’t believe the Jags are in a decent place. I need more beer to process this."
Commish says: What I need time to process is that the Jags have returned to the playoffs absent BORTLEMANIA!!! I hope there is still someone in Duval County enforcing the usage of EXACTLY three exclamation points in BORTLEMANIA!!!

 

@LucasFuller (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "The colts are tanking right?"
Commish says: Do you think they even know?

 

@BigJake08 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Cowboys by 15... unless Giants are getting killed and then Mike Mac might pull the starters and he might head to the locker room early for some Chick fil-A and start getting ready for his match up against Brady!"
Commish says: SIR, THIS IS A WENDY'S.

 

@Shibby015 (QB: Cousins): "You Like That!! - Yes I like picking the QB w/most yds, please give me that Kirkie!"
Commish says: Kirkie! KIRKIE!!

 

@Crystaal23 (Swami: Lions): "'Playoffs?' Regardless. 'You play. To WIN. The game.'"
Commish says: Ladies and gentlemen... JIM MORM EDWARDS!

 

@DeektheGreek (Swami: Dolphins): "Like watching paint dry"
Commish says:  Did you really saddle yourself with Week 18 Jets-Dolphins, Deek? YOU COULD HAVE CHOSEN ANY GAME.

 

@envelopeman1 (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "I believe the Raiders have decided to start the owners daughter at quarterback!"
Commish says: How was this not a sports movie in the 80s?!

 

@kbanaian (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "NEXT: The amazing story of a man named Skylar who put down his clipboard and took his team to the playoffs."
Commish says:  ANOTHER 80s SPORTS MOVIE!

 

@StatCzar (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Last week of the season, can't hold anything back now."
Commish says:  DID YOU REALLY JUST GIVE "IT'S WEEK 18 OF AN 18-WEEK SEASON" AS A STAT, STAT CZAR?

 

@Janice (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Really!! Brady died for this? Well he had better get his head out of his ass and play some damn ball!!"
Commish says:  TELL 'EM, JANICE!

 

@Ultragirlyini (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "Arron Rogers needs a haircut. Don’t you think?!"
Commish says:  What's the official haircut of conspiracy theorists?

 

@rnorwood (QB: Stidham): "The only thing I ever learned to say in Italian is "mangia la porta." Eat the door. You're welcome."
Commish says:  "Norwood" means "Norwood" in Italian. I just doubled your Italian vocab DO YOU LOVE ME

 

@UnsolicitedDakPics (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "If the Eagles lose, gardner does not deserve to have that mustache"
Commish says:  JALEN, THE STACHE IS IN YOUR HANDS

 

@mid24way (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "We woo"
Commish says:  WE WHO? WE WOO!

 

@doctorbong (Weekly Woodson Pick'em): "JimmyG = Drew Bledsoe"
Commish says:  AND DREW BLEDSOE = @DOCTORBONG!!!

 

 

Yours in football,
The Commish