Friends in fore,
Commish was mindlessly eating grapes yesterday until I grabbed a perfectly round one and it hit me.
I turned my speakers up to 100, lined up that grape toward the coffee mug across the kitchen island, tapped it forward, and once I saw it was tracking dead center...
... hit play on the "Tiger Roar at Augusta" track.
DRAINED. ROAR. GOLF SZN IS FINALLY UPON US.
American Express PICKS
- YEYPO
- Big John
- Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)
For the rookies out there, "PICKS" emails give you three things:
- Key storylines based on our competitions
- Stats and analysis for our picks
- Your best pick comments
The pick comment thing is arguably what put us on the map. If you've never read them, keep scrolling. And if you like it, get some friends in. Our YEYPO leaders last year missed 5 cuts, so no pick in the first week won't sink your championship dreams!
Now, on to the storylines...
We made Brian Harman - who at 5'7" is this generation's Corey Pavin, just without any major victories - our overwhelming top YEYPO pick at 15.5% of selections.
We liked Harman's tourney history (two top 3s, including last year) and his recent form (last four events: T32, T16, T2, 2).
In last year's YEYPO, he landed as high as #3 (8% of picks) at the Travelers and rewarded us with $244K in earnings.
So how has he handled being top dog for the first time?
... by bogeying two of his first three holes Thursday and finishing the day T107 (at 1-under).
Alas, The American Express is one of those weird "rotate between three courses and do the cut after THREE rounds instead of two" events. So there is a LOT of time for Harman to get it together.
The leader after round 1 (Davis Thompson, 10-under) was picked by exactly ZERO of us. But several big picks (Sam Burns, Jon Rahm, Taylor Montgomery) sit just two shots back.
PICK STATS
YEYPO One And Done
- After Harman (16.1%), it was Finau (8%), Sungjae (7.8%), Cam Young (6.9%), Cantlay (6.6%), and Rahm (6%).
- Rahm was our third most picked golfer last year (81.5% utilization), behind only Justin Thomas (82.1%) and Rory (84.6%).
- Harman was #38, at 23.2% utilization.
- And that's really the question, right? We have 30 weeks in Golf SZN. You don't want to leave top guys on the table, but picking them early - especially in a "normal" (smaller) purse event - always makes you a little uneasy.
- But as Commish always says, "If you pick a guy and he finishes top 3, no matter the purse that is always a GREAT pick".
- Our PBI (Pick Boldness Index) was 4.4/10, which means "not very bold". Our top picks were largely the guys nearest the top of the World Golf Rankings.
- But we did still bag some skin opportunities... because we always do.
- You win a skin when you're the ONLY person to pick the winner that week. And you win a half skin when you're one of TWO people to pick the winner.
- At the end of the year, our skins pot ($1,000) is divvied out to all skin earners.
- This week's skin oppos: Andrew Landry, Ben Taylor, Brandon Wu, Brendan Steele, Brendon Todd, Callum Tarren, Carl Yuan, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Danny Willett, Emiliano Grillo, Greyson Sigg, Harry Higgs, Justin Rose, Keith Mitchell, Lee Hodges, Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Matthew NeSmith, Nick Taylor, Patton Kizzire, Taylor Pendrith, Will Gordon, Zac Blair.
- Definitely some value in that group! Several guys who have won multiple PGA Tour events.
Big John Survivor
- Our top 5 was the same as YEYPO, just in slightly different order: Harman (16%), Sungjae, Cantlay, Finau, Cam Young.
- Here are the guys we liked more in Survivor than we did in YEYPO:
- Andrew Putnam (+22 picks)
- Cantlay (+22)
- Adam Hadwin (+17)
- Harris English (+17)
- Sahith Theegala (+14)
- On the flip side, Tom Hoge got 80 picks in YEYPO but just 48 in Survivor. Hoge is our classic "high ceiling but low floor" guy this week.
- 385 of us (24%) took the same golfer in both YEYPO and Survivor. Will be fun to track how that number trends over time.
- Again, this tourney is one of the weird "cut after 3 rounds instead of 2" tourneys. There are only a few out there. Most will cut after 2 rounds.
WEEKLY AWARDS
The 1-iron Moxie Award
Boldest pick. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!
@UncleDrewww (Emiliano Grillo, YEYPO): "Rob the jewelry store and tell ‘em, make me a grillo""
Commish says: What takes more Moxie? Actually robbing a jewelry store, or making this pick? IT'S SUFFICIENTLY UNCLEAR!!
John Daly's Pants Award
Our best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win
@YikesVikes (Will Zalatoris, YEYPO): "The onset of real fame is a tricky thing for anyone to navigate, but Zalatoris has worked hard to get there. He's been compared to Happy Gilmore's caddy, Owen Wilson, and Butch Harmon. He looks like a 1-iron without a grip on it. Yet he loves the spotlight. “You’ve got to embrace it ... hey, this is entertainment. This is obviously the really fun side of the job," he said. And this week he wins the Celebrity in the Desert award for the event formerly hosted by Bob Hope. Arnold Palmer won the first edition in 1960 and collected the $12,000 first prize. This week Willy Z gives me a SZN start of $1,440,000, making me Happy."
Commish says: Once I read "he looks like a 1-iron without a grip on it" I knew this week's best commment competition was over.
"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award
Most convincing comment (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)
@RobbieRuss (Si Woo Kim, YEYPO): "Shirtless man getting dragged out of the Cosmopolitan sports book this morning was screaming something about something. I couldn’t totally understand him but it sounded a lot like “Si Woo Amex Holes” so I’m assuming he was a witch proclaiming the future, and that’s why he got kicked out."
Commish says: Why is this the "convincing comment" winner instead of the "wildest take" winner? Because @RobbieRuss SEES THE FUTURE, and because the odds the guy who got kicked out is also in Golf SZN seem credibly high.
Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge
The spiciest/wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)
@kbanaian (Cam Davis, YEYPO): "Doesn't it feel like your best bet to have a PGA pro in the family is to name your first boy Cameron? Indeed, you can use this name for a baby girl, too. Also, the name Cameron is Scottish and means crooked nose. On second thought, why do you name a kid "crooked nose"? "Crooked nose, aye? I'll shew ye on the links!" "
Commish says: Level with me here: In the days before Cameron was a name, what do you think was the process of someone deciding to invoke crooked nose in the naming of their child? I imagine THICK accents, empty boxes of Bud Light Lime (it was brewed in 1800 don't get it twisted), plates of half-eaten haggis, and overflowing love for our little crooked nose, future Champion Golfer of the Year.
MORE COMMENTS
@Howiedave (Tom Hoge, Survivor): "Cotton candy sweetie go, Let me see that Hoge roll"
Commish says: SUDDENLY IN NEED OF A TOM HOGE HIGHLIGHT REEL
@mahatma19 (Wyndham Clark, Survivor): "I am eager to see golf shit-talking. I'm hoping that this all somehow splinters into groups of *very* Pro-Martin-Laird and Anti-Martin-Laird contingents. I just wanna eat popcorn while people are yelling at each other with someone holding up a "quiet please" sign..."
Commish says: [SCENE] It's 2030. The Laird Warriors have seceded and started their own SZN competitor. Commish has been accused of spreading Laird lies. WHAT DRAMA WILL UNFOLD NEXT?
@Mr_Rodgers_Neighborhood (Andrew Putnam, Survivor): "I'm most sad I can't actually pick John Daly for this..."
Commish says: Did you see the NFL broadcast where they did the celebrity thing and it was Tom Cruise followed by John Daly? OUR BOY JOHN IS BIG TIME.
@mropp05 (Brian Harman, Survivor): "Brian Harman is so small I could carry him around in my backpack"
Commish says: Why is it always this and never, "my backpack is so big it could carry around Brian Harman"?
@suckitspanos (Andrew Putnam, YEYPO): "Starting this thing off with a Burmester Brumski for the La Quinta win. And for those not familiar with the Spanish, it’s not pronounced Qwintaa, it’s pronounced Kinta. That is all"
Commish says: *Googles it* ... *Notices first result is from Urban Dictionary* ... *Remembers this was a @suckitspanos comment*
@Loosehawgs (Tom Hoge, YEYPO): "So what are the chances that Hoge has a hangover effect from the Horned Frogs ripping his heart out and laying a turd in the championship? Well if recent twitter responses are any indicator this Hoge is ready to rip! Let the big stick do the talking now. WOOOOO!"
Commish says: Tom needed one round to stand in solidarity with his fellow Hypnotoads. ONE ROUND.
@rstpaul (Sahith Theegala, Survivor): "If I know anything about this competition after one year, it's pick Sahith early because Commish will call out everyone who passes on him every week until he's the pick leader. And that's the week of pain. Get him out of the way now."
Commish says: Commish would NEVER call anyone out. That's such an @rstpaul thing to think. I hope @rstpaul bases his future comments on factual things, like me not calling people out by name, and Sahith Theegala being a GREAT VALUE PICK DON'T PASS ON HIM.
@Lambda_derg (Tony Finau, YEYPO): "tony finau raging off being cut last week"
Commish says: Last year, Tony raged by allowing us to make him our second-ever top pick (in next week's event) and missing the cut. We need you to rage responsibly, Tony.
@Battman (Tony Finau, YEYPO): "Week one and wide open"
Commish says: It. Starts. With. One. (I swear I'm not a 90s kid I swear I'm not a 90s kid.)
@Golfwhisperer75 (Patrick Cantlay, Survivor): "Watch out! Here I come!! Eagles & Birdies will flying!!"
Commish says: But can you whisper albatrosses into existence? CAN YOU?
@jhctr (Taylor Montgomery, YEYPO): "I went with Taylor Montgomery this week because his name sounds like a duet by Taylor Swift and Montgomery Gentry."
Commish says: I can't name a single song by Montgomery Gentry but Blank Space is a BANGER!!!
@BrocknessMonster (Sam Burns, Survivor): "What if I'm not that funny?"
Commish says: We'll still put you in the email because your username is amazing and it's a MASSIVE upset that a guy named Brock Purdy is a pro football player and not a pro golfer.
@Clodney (Taylor Montgomery, YEYPO): "Zalatoris owes me $4150.00 lets go!"
Commish says: Golf SZN beef. Golf SZN BEEF!!
@Acerun3 (Taylor Montgomery, YEYPO): "Week 1 take a guy you never heard of"
Commish says: Sounds like the start of a GREAT rap.
@Jevans4 (Cam Davis, YEYPO): "The real Cam of the PGA Tour now"
Commish says: SHOTS FIRED
@narguero (Cameron Young, YEYPO): "Cam jam in La Quinta"
Commish says: WHAT IS A CAM JAM ACTUALLY MAYBE DON'T ANSWER THAT
@larbarden (Si Woo Kim, YEYPO): "I like your strategy of hiding Si Woo (last week's winner) in the middle of the pack based on World Rank... I too am hoping no one else realizes he's playing this weekend.'"
Commish says: IS THIS ALSO YOUR STRATEGY AT FAMILY GAME NIGHT
@MONSTERXXX (Xander Schauffele, YEYPO): "WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH !!!"
Commish says: Golf SZN: THE ORIGINAL WOOOOOOH
@samardzija (Brian Harman, YEYPO): "The waggle king of Hawaii! Those 11 waggles spelled dooooooooom hitting it in the penalty last week. Swing demons be gone! Sweet HARMONy from Brian this weekend in southern California"
Commish says: ALL HAIL THE WAGGLE KING OF HAWAII, SZN TOP PICK #1!!!
Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish