Friends in fore,
Late last year, we were all witness to the FINAU FLAME.
Tony couldn't be stopped, after being largely a letdown to those of us who picked him in the first half of the year.
He's our top pick this week (11% of YEYPO picks). Will we get Good Tony or Bad Tony?
American Express PICKS
- YEYPO
- Big John
- Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)
Finau was ALSO our top pick in this event a year ago. He missed the cut.
But that missed cut looked a LOT like an aberration on paper. Because look at his tourney history before then: 2021: T2, 2020: T6, 2019: T13, 2018: T6, 2017: T4
That's about as good as it gets.
And yet... Finau limped to a 1-over round yesterday. He has work to do to make the cut.
Early reports are he's NOT sporting the golf hoodie. Maybe he needs the golf hoodie. Does anyone know Tony or his people? GET THIS MAN WHAT HE NEEDS.
PICK STATS
YEYPO One And Done
- After Finau (11%), it was Rahm (10%), Zalatoris (9%), Sungjae (9%), Taylor Montgomery (8%), Jason Day (8%), Xander (8%), and Homa (8%).
- Montgomery is a TOUR rookie, for those who don't know, and has been impressive in his first year.
- We registered one of our lowest-ever Pick Boldness scores for a non-major, with a 3.7/10 PBI.
- That low PBI suggests that week's chalk (Rahm winning) spooked into picking big guns this week, for fear of falling behind early.
- The field rankings (using their OWGR) for our top 10 picks: 6th (Finau), 1st (Rahm), 3rd, 8th, 14th, 35th (Day), 2nd, 7th, 4th, 5th.
- So, yeah, when 8 of your top 10 picks are the actual 8 best guys in the field by World Rank... you're gonna get a low Pick Boldness score.
- We've got 17 skin opportunities this week.
- 2 picks (half skin): Hayden Buckley, Scott Stallings, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Wyndham Clark
- 1 pick (full skin): Aaron Baddeley, Austin Smotherman, Cameron Percy, Davis Riley, Eric Cole, John Huh, Matti Schmid, Patrick Rodgers, Patton Kizzire, Thomas Detry, Trey Mullinax, Zac Blair
- Not a SINGLE person picked ANY of our three leaders after round 1: Aaron Rai, Brent Grant, and Sam Ryder.
- And for good measure, no one is on the only guy one shot back, Brendan Steele, either.
Big John Survivor
- Sungjae clipped Finau (106 picks to 105) for the top slot here.
- When the game is "just make the cut", is Sungjae on the All-PGA First Team? He's gotta be, right? So a lot of us are burning the potential MVP early.
- Next up: Rahn (101 picks), Montgomery (96), Xander (86).
- We were notably lower on Zalatoris in Survivor than we were YEYPO. He had 27% fewer picks in Survivor - the only guy to be a top 5 pick in YEYPO that wasn't the same in Survivor.
- Here are the guys we liked more in Survivor than we did in YEYPO:
Adam Hadwin (2.3x the pick rate)
Luke List (2x)
Hideki (2x)
J.J. Spaun (1.7x)
Maverick McNealy (1.5x). - List won the event last year. Apparently we didn't believe in a repeat, but DO think he's a solid choice to see the weekend.
- Guys we liked LESS in Survivor:
Cam Davis (0.64x the pick rate)
Zalatoris (0.72x)
Davis Thompson (6 picks in YEYPO and just 1 in Survivor). - 284 of us (23% of those alive in Survivor) took the same golfer in both competitions. Basically the same as last week (24%)
WEEKLY AWARDS
The 1-iron Moxie Award
Boldest pick. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!
@Jevans4 (Rickie Fowler): "BDR comeback SZN"
Commish says: If you were to pick one golfer that has the longest Moxie runway - where SOMEONE is going to pick him and pray that week - it's gotta be Rickie, right?
John Daly's Pants Award
Our best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win
@mahatma19 (Stephan Jaeger): "All I wanted to do was find a guy named McDonald to win the Farmers Tournament but there isn't any. My next choice was to see if anyone had a dog named "Bingo." That was too much research so I chose to just go back to my college days and loudly yell, "Let's do Jaeger!""
Commish says: Your college days, or yesterday? HONEST ANSWERS ONLY.
"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award
Most convincing comment (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)
@zachewing (Wyndham Clark): "Wyndham Clark is the only golfer named after a hotel, and I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night."
Commish says: I have zero doubt the guy named after a hotel is going to win the tournament named after a dating app.
Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge
The spiciest/wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)
@danrizzolo119 (Maverick McNealy): "He was McNearly the winner in Hawaii last time out. With F18s ripping overhead from Miramar heading out to the Pacific, how could Maverick not be the top gun this week?!? Side note: is there an award for cheesiest comment of the week? (Asking for a friend) Side side note: top gun maverick > the original top gun (that’s right, I said it!)"
Commish says: I hope you tell your "friend" that they should be embarrassed and feel great shame for even asking. AWARDS ARE AWARDS AND YOU ARE A WINNER.
MORE COMMENTS
@Merf (Cam Davis): "Not burning Rambo here, @TheCommish. Take your Week 1 victory lap and mock me in the comments. Playing the long game."
Commish says: *Looks at Merf's pick of Cam Davis* ... *Looks at Cam Davis's day one score* ... Merf, when you say playing the long game, do you mean long as in like 2024?
@UncleDrewww (Tony Finau): "Finau-lly gonna Purdy all day before it Hurts to Burrow my feelings in Mahomes."
Commish says: BUT WHERE IS HIS HOODIE
@suckitspanos (Robby Shelton): "Robbie’s rolling an eagle for the Farmers win on 18 over that pond and pin high on that cursed green with a little back up bugaloo spin into the cup avoiding the need for miracle putt Rhambo made there before. And although I’m passing on Xander the hometown favorite and my golf crush, he’s a top 3 finish and I’m saving him for the big money tournaments later. This is his year. Rham who?"
Commish says: So you spell Xander's name right because he's your crush? And no one else? Do you spell your own name correctly?
@jrcondon (Tony Finau): "If I were Zecheng Dou I would sue to get that picture taken down. It looks like a mix between Sloth from The Goonies & Carl Spackler. Zecheng Dou's new nickname...Sploth."
Commish says: Our Team SZN convos include a LOT of jokes about these guys' headshots. Several of them were 100% drunk when taking the photo and you cannot convince me otherwise.
@YikesVikes (Jon Rahm): "Can Jon Rahm keep up his excellent play at Torrey Pines? Aside from Rahm's win in 2017, his last four Farmers results have been T5-2-T7-T3, in addition to his 2021 U.S. Open title. He proposed to his wife here and he's giving her a present of back-to-back wins, in the desert last week and on the shore this week. There hasn't been a back-to-back winner in a long time so if someone is going to do it this year it will be Rahm!"
Commish says: And here I always thought Jon Rahm found love in a hopeless place.
@imkerjere (Justin Rose): "My thorn is Rose"
Commish says: SO WHY DID U DO IT
@MNBearcat (Will Zalatoris): "Happy’s caddie starting the year on a heater!!"
Commish says: WILLY Z: LOOKS LIKE A 1-IRON WITHOUT A GRIP!
@BuckyBMat (Will Zalatoris): "Mr. Gilmore I’m your caddie"
Commish says: HOW MANY OF THESE CAN WE GET?
@Mr_Rodgers_Neighborhood (Will Zalatoris): "C'mon, Happy Gilmore's caddy, do it for Chubbs!!!"
Commish says: HOW MANY?!?
@Bubs (Harris English): "The spawn of JJ!!"
Commish says: WAIT, HARRIS IS J.J.'s BABY?
@kbanaian (Taylor Montgomery): "Need a hot hand but maybe not the hottest...."
Commish says: NEW TINDER BIO ALERT
@Alakhi (Kevin Yu): "Time for a Yuuuuuuuuge week"
Commish says: NEXT TIME, SOULJA BOY REFERENCES ONLY.
Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish