Friends in fore,
In last year's Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler won while Xander Schauffele (pictured, and our top pick this week) finished T3.
Exactly zero newspapers ran the headline "SCHEFF-SCHAUF GOES DOWN TO THE WIRE".
Unreal, American news establishment. UNREAL.
PHOENIX OPEN PICKS
- YEYPO
- Big John
- Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)
Xander - he of the "best golfer without a major win" candidacy - is our top pick (18%), as we liked both his recent form (T13, T3 last two events) and his tournament history (T3, T2, T16, T10, T17 last five years).
The stakes are high.
This is our first "elevated event" of the year, with a purse of $20M and a winner's share of $3.6M.
Can Xander - so often your go-to "top 5" or "top 10" guy but rarely your pick to WIN - bring it home?
Or will it go to one of our next-ups (Morikawa 12%, Rahm 12%, JT 7%, Scheff 6%)?
Or will it go to the guy who had last year's win in his grasp until the very end - and whom a robust 5% of us are riding against the big boys this week - Sahith Theegala?
No matter who ends up on top, we can only hope for more shirt-removing, putter-riding celebrations on the 16th hole - the loudest (and most beer-soaked) hole in golf.
The Phoenix Open is golf, SZN style.
PICK STATS
YEYPO One And Done
- Our top five picks are the 5th, 6th, 3rd, 7th, and 2nd highest ranked golfers in the field.
- Theegala - our 6th pick - is just 33rd in the field (OWGR #41).
- While Theegala is definitely our deepest cut, shout-out to Rickie Fowler (64th in the field; #111 OWGR) getting 17 picks in an event where he historically plays well.
- Our pick boldness score - 3.9/10 - once again fell below 4, which is the dividing line between "SO SAFE" and "Pretty safe". We've been very chalky so far this year.
- Rory McIlroy - the #1 ranked golfer in the world - was just our 10th biggest pick. Given he's been in great form, we were either scared by his lack of tourney history OR we're banking on 2023 being the year Rory finally breaks his Majors drought.
- Full skin opportunities (1 pick): Adam Svensson, Charley Hoffman, Davis Thompson, Dylan Frittelli, Hayden Buckley, J.J. Spaun, Joel Dahmen, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Sam Ryder, Tommy Fleetwood.
- Half skin oppos (2 picks): Brendan Steele, Garrick Higgo, Maverick McNealy, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, Seamus Power
- As is usually the case in huge purse events and Majors, there's GREAT value to be found at the bottom of our pick board.
- Davis Thompson nearly won a few weeks ago. J.J. Spaun bagged a victory last year and nearly got a second. Kisner is ranked #31 in the world, and Fleetwood is #24. All of them are full skin opportunities this week.
Big John Survivor
- 636 brave souls made picks in Survivor week 4, meaning we're already down to far fewer than half of us.
- Xander also led the way here, but with only 12.6% of picks vs. his 18% in YEYPO.
- Morikawa is just our 5th biggest pick in Survivor vs. being #2 in YEYPO.
- Rickie, the darling of our YEYPO picking, got just ONE pick in Survivor.
- We're like, "If Rickie plays well, maybe he can win it. But... odds are still he misses the cut, right?"
- Shout-out to our lone pickers on Taylor Pendrith (#115 in the world), Scott Stallings (#55), Hayden Buckley (#103), and last week's big disappointment, Maverick McNealy (#61).
- 183 of us (29% of those alive in Survivor) took the same golfer in both competitions. This is down from last week's 32%, but still higher than our percentage in Weeks 1 and 2.
WEEKLY AWARDS
The 1-iron Moxie Award
Boldest pick. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!
@mikulis (Tommy Fleetwood, YEYPO): "With the insanity and debauchery of the WM Open (at which I look with envy each year), I have to look to Fairway Jesus in order to walk through the desert, change what little water there is to wine for the crowd in the stands, and show off his divine swing to free me from the middle of the pack and up to heavenly standings. Amen."
Commish says: Blessed art thou who chose Fairway Jesus on Super Bowl Sunday at a tournament. If he pulls off the win I imagine he just ascends into the sky and floats into Glendale to attend the big game. I believe in miracles!
John Daly's Pants Award
Our best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win
@hatmaked (Rory McIlroy, YEYPO): "Don’t sleep on the Super Bowl being a mental factor for golfers who are also football fans. Rory is from Northern Ireland and has expressed interest in golf, soccer, rugby and tennis. What’s missing? American football. Does he even know the Super Bowl is this weekend or care? Uhhhhh… no. He’ll be focused on that $3.6 mil payout for the winner while the rest of the field is parlaying for suite access to the big game."
Commish says: I absolutely love this take. You hear all sorts of "distraction" narratives for athletes in other sports, but rarely golf. And golfers take roughly 280 swings over the course of four days in order to complete just ONE tournament! How deep can our research go? Can we find out how well Mickelson played relative to how much he bet on that Super Bowl? WHO WANTS TO DIVE IN?!
"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award
Most convincing comment (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)
@YikesVikes (Xander Schauffele, Survivor): "I find myself shocked at Xander’s lack of killer instinct on Sundays. Xander has many impressive accomplishments; his cuts made is over 81% of his starts, he has 29 finishes in the Top 10 and has already racked up over $21 million in on-course earnings. Sadly,
I have earned significantly less than $21 million and am quite jealous of Xander's career. He may not win because of lack of Sunday killer instinct, but he'll make the cut. I will survive. "
Commish says: Are you angling to be the new Stat Czar, YV? Also, you raise what's becoming an increasingly painful truth: You can be a wholly mediocre pro athlete and stack paper. Kwame Brown made $64M from NBA contracts. Golfers you've never heard of, who finish 70th in the FedEx Cup standings, make like $2M+ per year. ALSO ALSO, Xander will make the cut because that's what Xander does.
Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge
The spiciest/wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)
@yjcc (Tom Kim, YEYPO): "Look. We respect the historically quiet, focused, ruthless finesse required to win in this sport. But this week it's all about answering WHO'S GONNA HAVE THE MOST FUN?! Ma boi JOOHYUNG "THOMAS THE TANK ENGINE" KIM CHOOCHOOOOOOOOO"
Commish says: IF JOHN DALY WAS IN THE FIELD WOULD YOU TAKE HIM
MORE COMMENTS
@mahatma19 (Tony Finau, Survivor): "Wikipedia says Tony Finau has a brother named Gipper. Time to pull out the "win one for the Gipper" speech on (Super Bowl) Sunday. I'll probably be watching, er, something else."
Commish says: I looked this up and IT IS REAL. Gipper Finau, 1970s disco club owner and also REAL HUMAN IN 2023.
@Eannarelli (Keegan Bradley, YEYPO): "Being contrarian has gotten me absolutely nowhere in life. So let’s continue that theme."
Commish says: So what happens when your contrarian pick wins? Full-blown identity crisis? Can you walk us through it next week?
@Jevans4 (Justin Thomas, YEYPO): "JT is the definition of the Waste Management Phoenix Open."
Commish says: I don't know what this means but I LIKE IT
@rhuebner (Xander Schauffele, YEYPO): "I received a hot tip for this weeks pick. I was told there's one golfer who's particularly good at waste management. Especially out of waste bunkers. Name: SANDer SHOW OFF Lee"
Commish says: SANDer SHOW OFF Lee is somehow both the best and worst "sounds like" I've ever heard. Related: MORE OF THIS FROM YOU NEXT WEEK, HUEBNER.
@MONSTERXXX (Viktor Hovland, YEYPO): "I just to Havland a win ! Viktor ! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOH !!!"
Commish says: What is happening? Where am I? Is this what the apocalypse feels like? DID THE APOCALYPSE JUST HAPPEN? Monster speaks words other than woooo! Viktor Hovland has POWERS.
@RotoJeff (Collin Morikawa, YEYPO): "Looking forward to burning the wrong big name only to see him win a major later this year! But these elevated events and the fields attached to them should be pretty amazing."
Commish says: Morikawa has that feel, doesn't he? I have no idea if the stats back me up, but he feels especially hard to predict (including the two times he's already won a Major).
@Bobsalisian (J.T. Poston, Survivor): "Will the real J.T. please stand up!"
Commish says: I was almost like "JT is as hard to predict as Morikawa" AND THEN I GOT THE JOKE. (But Justin Thomas IS hard to predict.)
@Bthack (Rickie Fowler, YEYPO): "What do Rickie Fowler and Patrick Mahomes have in common?"
Commish says: DOES PAT LIKE PUMA
@tjd194 (Max Homa, YEYPO): "Max Homa at the 16th on Sunday with a lead, shotgunning a beer, only an hour til the super bowl. Euphoria. "
Commish says: Max Homa unquestionably pounds Bud Light Limes.
@Jeff_w (Tom Kim, YEYPO): "Tom Kim will be the next pro golfer to be showered in beer on 16"
Commish says: He would LOVE it. He'd be my betting favorite for max "living it up" in this scenario?
@Joefine28 (Sahith Theegala, YEYPO): "It’s time, Sahith! "
Commish says: UNLEASH THE THEEGALAAAAA
@kmorris14 (Hideki Matsuyama, YEYPO): "Droppin clubs and eatin dubs"
Commish says: Call up Netflix right now and be like "I have your tagline" ... "Wow that's good. How much?" ... "PAT PEREZ GOT MILLIONS TO FREE RIDE ON THE LIV TOUR PAY ME AT LEAST WHAT HE MAKES!!"
Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish