Dapper disciples of down and distance,

We've reached the high-water confidence mark of every BFIG season. Title poolers say "I'm so damn good at this!" and Second Chancers say "I'm gonna prove I'm so damn good at this!"

Commish isn't sure if you're damn good at this, but he IS sure that you're damn good looking. Antonio Brown's pumps are most definitely being directed at you.

Commish is surprised more people aren't talking about how weird this NFL season has been. Sure, there haven't been any survivor catastrophes a la 2015, and some things feel very familiar (the Browns are super Browns and the Chargers are super... Chargers), but let's recap the weirdness so far:

• The Bills lost to the Ravens and Jets, made everyone assume Rex Ryan would be fired by Week 8, then promptly beat the Cardinals and the Patriots.
• The Falcons, Fishers, and No-Romos all started 0-1, confirming everyone's belief in their mediocrity. They're a combined 9-0 since.
• Those Week 1 losses were to the Bucs, Niners, and Giants... who are 1-8 since.
• Are running backs even a thing anymore? I know the game has shifted more and more to passing, but this has to be peak collective anonymity for NFL backs. AP is hurt (again), Jamaal is hurt (again), Marshawn retired, and we seem resigned to the idea that the offensive line matters FAR more than who's carrying the ball (see: Todd Gurley vs. Ezekiel Elliott).
• The league's two best regular season teams last year, by both record and point differential, are both 1-3. Moreover, they've literally had the exact same season so far.
• The NFL's best division, by record - the NFC East - hasn't even finished above .500 since 2009. That division, featuring Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, and the ghost of Eli Manning at quarterback, is 7-2 against all others so far.

The one clear trend that has continued is that the best teams mostly have the best defenses. Denver is 4-0 with no-name quarterbacks, Minnesota is 4-0 with Sam Bradford and Jerick McKinnon, Seattle is 3-1 with a putrid offense, and the Rams are 3-1 while averaging under 16 points per game. Yup.

In other news, PACKERSSSSSS. Let's move on. Commish needs a beer.

BFIG HEALTH CHECK: NORMALCY AMID THE ODDITIES

• Damage done: 2,254 started the week; 10 picked teams lost, knocking out 561 people; 1,693 of us are moving on to Week 5.
• Could it have been worse? Not really. The Dumpster Fire flirted with the Browns for a bit, because, well, what'd you expect? This fumble play - Duke Johnson clearly comes out of the pile with the ball - could have changed things, but all in all, every heavy pick who didn't play a division rival with a better record (c'monnnnnn Arizona backers) survived.
• Closest call: Dumpster Fire over Browns. Cleveland was ahead in the fourth quarter, then did Cleveland things. At some point, the Browns are gonna make the massive, heroic, almost unthinkable leap from "Closest call" to the "Toughest loss" section below. AT SOME POINT.
• Easiest win: Bengals over Dolphins; Steelers over Chiefs. If you mapped out "first team to quit" for each of the past 10 seasons, wouldn't the Dolphins be on that list four or five times? And who knows what to make of the Chiefs at this point.
• Toughest loss: Saints beat Chargers. This is getting out of hand. San Diego was up 13 with the ball and five minutes to go. This comes after blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead in Week 1. The Chargers should probably be 4-0.
• Team SZN record: 0-0. The Second Chance Pool is our eternal sanctuary.

WEEK 4 HIGHLIGHTS: FUNKS, JUKES, AND TERRIBLE DANCE MOVES

JASON GARRETT IS THE COOLEST COACH. Seriously the coolest. Commish just watched that three times and needs another beer.

In this week's edition of "holy s*** that dude is fast," I present to you, Julio Jones. If you pause that at the moment he catches the ball, there's no WAY dude scores a touchdown. Alas, most dudes are not Julio Jones.

STEVE SMITH IS 37 YEARS OLD. Get out of here. Can someone link me to his brand of deer antler spray?

This week's filthiest juke goes goes to a quarterback. Though, you could argue the filthiest juke was the Patriots, when they walked out of the tunnel representing a good football team.

When your team is in a funk and you do do this in the first quarter, you're probably not gonna reverse that funk. Gotta be top-3 worst tackling plays of the year so far.

And forget all on-field matters for a moment... is there anything more inexplicable than the Colts extending both Pagano and Grigson in the offseason? Can Andrew Luck get even one competent lineman to help him out? One? He gets sacked by entire defenses at the same time.

YOUR BEST TAKES: AIN'T NO PARTY LIKE A THURSDAY VICTORY PARTY

Clif Cotton (ClifCotton): "Picking the Thursday winner makes you feel thinner, taller, and better looking on Friday. Thank you, Cincy, for the self esteem boost."

Lucas McCormack (lmcc23): "Picking a Thursday winner gives me a feeling of freedom I haven't felt since I first switched to boxers."

Commish says: All humor aside, last week was the perfect example of why Commish strictly enforces the Thursday deadline. Even if picks weren't revealed (because we allowed people to pick until Sunday morning), you would KNOW people were picking the Bengals in high volume. If the Bengals proceeded to lose, you might play your pick differently knowing up to half of the pool was likely gone. Thus, Thursday deadlines are a key component in ensuring no one has even the slightest advantage over anyone else. (OK, T.O., you can have your soapbox back, man.)

Mark Simones (BigDaddy): "Any Bills fans out there? Week 4 will be the start of Beli's demise."

Dan Burger (Billsfan): "I wish I had your confidence @BigDaddy"

Rob Hunter (robbobobbo): "We all should have had @BigDaddy's confidence in Buffalo..."

Commish says: First of all, @BigDaddy is Poppa Commish, and yes, his username is ridiculous. Second of all, my dad and I went 6-0 betting on the NFL last weekend, and the Bills were in that mix. Third, I have no idea what made you see that Bills victory so clearly, Dad, but can you carry that clairvoyance with you every week? Fourth, Beli? Lol.

Robert Gegen (Bobgegen): "Sad about J.J. Watt's lingering back issue. Hopefully he will return to full strength and become a GBP. McCarthy still on this stockholder's crap list."

Commish says: It's entirely unclear to me how JJ Watt would end up a Green Bay Packer, but you know what, Bob? I'M ON BOARD! We know he loves Wisconsin. We can only presume he loves cheese. And who doesn't love championships?!?! IT"S GONNA HAPPEN!

TURNS OUT BYE WEEKS MIGHT ACTUALLY MATTER... FOR ALL OF ONE WEEK

Commish always seeks to entertain, but I also seek to make you a smarter football human.

Bye weeks just started, so it's a fitting time to remind you that bye week myth has been separated from bye week reality. Teams coming off a bye week DO actually win at a higher rate. But the timing of bye weeks probably has no effect on Super Bowl likelihood. Study up.

HOUSEKEEPING

• Text message reminders have saved a ton of people already. If you haven't entered your phone number so we can send you reminders (that's ALL we use it for), then do so now.
• Picks lock at 5:20pm (PST) every week. No exceptions.
• Kyle (The GM) and I play along with everyone, but of course we can't win any money. It's written into our official Terms of Service. We lol at basically every DraftKings article that comes out.
• Any friends who become SZN members get all the competitions we offer from the day they join through one year from that date. So yes, that includes BFIG 2017. Get them in so they can play in these upcoming NFL competitions! We'll be doing NBA survivor, too.
• DOUBLE CHECK YOUR PICK! Seriously, you don't want to be the person who thinks they're on Carolina but actually picked the Panthers' opponent. (It happens at least once every year.)
• The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl.
• Commish loves you.