Friends in fore,
First, a reminder that Golf Survivor #2 starts in two weeks with the Valero Texas Open. $3K in prizes. JOIN HERE >>
NOW, The Players Championship is a big deal for us. It's Golf SZN's biggest purse and biggest payday to the champ. Picking the winner this week would be a massive springboard.
But - and it's an especially big but when you look at the leaderboard after Round 1 - picking The Players is notoriously hard.
Can he run it back? He'll need a strong finish this week, for starters...
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
- YEYPO
- Big John
- Your group picks (get in a group with friends!)
Finding a guy who has a great (or even good!) course history at TPC Sawgrass is a lot like a Rorschach test. See what you want to see.
You won't find a single guy where it's like "Oh yeah, he crushes this course every time". For whatever reason, past success doesn't seem to predict future success at this track.
Take our two top picks - Rory and JT - who each bagged 16% of picks. Their TPC histories are considered some of the best. Let's examine their last 6 showings...
Rory: T33, CUT, 1 (2019), CUT, T35, T12
JT: T33, 1 (2021), T35, T11, T75, T3
Rory has missed the cut twice in his past four tries and has just one top 10 since 2016. And yet... because he found success ONCE, it's like "Rory is a safe bet this week".
He's not a safe bet! Commish picked him, so I get it, but you never really know what you're gonna get in this event.
Justin Thomas has been a bit more consistent from a cuts made standpoint, but dude also has just one top 10 in his last five tries - and let's be real, given the massive prize money, you are making this pick hoping for something a lot better than a T11.
And, fittingly, given almost all of the world's top golfers are in the field this week, the leaderboard after Round 1 reads more like The Honda Classic than one of golf's premier events.
Chad Ramey, who hasn't received a single pick ALL GOLF SZN, is the leader at 8-under. Ben Griffin (0 picks this week), Taylor Pendrith (0 picks), Min Woo Lee (0 picks), Denny McCarthy (0 picks), (0 picks), and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0 picks) are all in the top 10.
Six guys in the top 10. Zero total picks in YEYPO.
Might the leaderboard normalize from here? Might it become a race between Morikawa, Scheff, and Sam Burns (all in the top 10)? Of course. But don't be surprised if we see the Sunday commentators trying to get us riled up about a battle down the stretch between Wyndham Clark and Justin Suh.
Ah shit, and Chad Ramey. DON'T FORGET ABOUT CHAD.
PICK STATS
YEYPO One-And-Done
- Our top 7 picks are all in the top 10 by field ranking
- We went Rory (3rd), JT (8th), Scheff (2nd), Homa (7th), Rahm (1st), Cantlay (4th), and Hovland (10th)
- Commish gets it. $4.5M to the champ. Pull out those big guns.
- Our lowest top 10 guy? Morikawa, who got just 24 picks (1.5%)
- Morikawa has been a yo-yo of late, going CUT-T6-CUT-3 in his last four outings. And he missed last year's TPC cut. We weren't feeling the safety
- Naturally, Morikawa was 2nd after Round 1
- Full skin opportunities (1 pick): Emiliano Grillo, Francesco Molinari, Harrison Endycott, Joseph Bramlett, K.H. Lee, Kramer Hickok, Ryan Fox, Seamus Power
- Half skin oppos (2 picks): Byeong Hun An, Sam Burns, Webb Simpson
- Sam Burns (14th in the world) as a half skin opportunity is one of the more hilarious things to ever happen in Golf SZN. Dude has won a bunch of times over the past few years. Crazy value!
- Commish wants to have a beer with the person who picked Harrison Endycott (#309 in the world). Or maybe it's have a sixth beer? WHAT WAS YOUR MIND STATE I WANT TO KNOW MORE
Big John Survivor
- We're down to 364 pickers, and this week is looking DICEY
- JT got 26% of our picks, and he's currently below the cut line
- Rory got 12% of our picks, and he's also below the cut line right now
- It gets calmer from there, with a bunch of picks that look good after one round, but we're in danger of experiencing one of our bloodier weeks
- We picked 28 golfers, which is the second lowest total thus far
- Shout-out to our two pickers on Rickie, who continues his quest to be called resurgent
WEEKLY AWARDS
The 1-iron Moxie Award
Boldest pick. You can't win a SZN competition without a little Moxie!
@justinwool (Emiliano Grillo, YEYPO): "Por que no?"
Commish says: ¿Por Qué No? ¿Por Qué No?!?!? BECAUSE IT'S THE PLAYERS, WOOL. (But also, I did just write everything above... so... good pick?)
John Daly's Pants Award
Our best weekly comment (or three), because John Daly's pants always win
@billhaughney (Joseph Bramlet, YEYPO): "When I coached high school golf, Joseph Bramlett played for Saratoga HS. I was just a warm body who knew something about golf. Very often there were players on our team who were better than me. In my 10 years coaching I think we played Saratoga 20 times. We didn’t win once. You laughed when one guy picked Bramlett last week. I’m pretty sure my high school team had a better chance of beating Saratoga when we played than he has of beating this field this week, but in the words of Lloyd Christmas, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?!?! YEAH!!” Let’s cash some of that skins $!"
Commish says: Even though Team SZN member and actual good golfer @Merf let us know that Bramlett played for another S school in St. Francis (@Merf finished 6th at NorCals while Bramlett won the damn thing as a freshman), that is beside the point. Because the point is you saw me laugh at a Bramlett pick and then PULLED THE BRAMLETT LEVER FOR THE YEAR'S BIGGEST PURSE EVENT. We all can't be as bold as you, Bill, but damnit we're gonna try.
"Bryson Approves This Pick" Award
Most convincing comment (There's logic, and then there's Bryson-level logic)
@suckitspanos (Rory McIlroy, YEYPO): "After flushing the driver deep this afternoon at Pechanga, Hole 5, par 4, I left myself with a tasty 128 yds to attack the pin. Furhter inpsection, revealed an uphill three tiered green...I swear I heard Manolo say "be nasty Pechanga, but don't be nasty." I assess my birdie options like a true scratch player -- 1. The Schefler Texas Two -Step slide off my back foot incredible luck (or is it skill) shot to the top tier 2nd cut or 2. Activate the Rhambo Dad bod SW hulk smash off the backstop and play the back up boogaloo to the cup or 3. channel the Northern Irishman Mcllroy with a AW to 4" of the cup and stick it. I went with Irish approach and stuck it --Birdie -- Manolo "BE NASTY" And that's when I knew Rory was easy money in YEYPO bank"
Commish says: "Nasty Pechanga", Schefler Texas Two-Step", "Rhambo Dad bod SW hulk smash", "back up boogaloo", and "the Northern Irishman" all sound like amazing wrestling moves. And also amazing cocktails. Does anyone here own a bar? Are you also inspired? LET'S MAKE SOME MONEY!
Spieth's 89-degree Lob Wedge
The spiciest/wildest take (like Spieth's wild short game)
@MONSTERXXX (Justin Thomas, YEYPO): "I need a win bad , I Justin don't know who i should take this week , I take the favorite last week and i get it Rhammed right up there , Not nice Johnny so Im glad that's over and on to this week. How can i get taken to the wood shed , ah the wood shed so many fond memories but anyway , Justin Bieber or Thomas the Tank Engine this week ? Decisions Decisions how about i combine the 2 and take Justin Thomas WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOH !!!!!"
Commish says: How many sentences were you holding back from us during football season, Monster? HOW MANY
MORE COMMENTS
@Jevans4 (Tom Kim, YEYPO): "Tom Kim gonna get the people going on 17. Might even belly flop in the pond. Who knows. I like his odds at his first Players Championship."
Commish says: He's going to hit them with the Nasty Pechanga, off the top rope, into the pond!
@YikesVikes (Keegan Bradley, Survivor): "Keegan Bradley, has never missed the cut at the players, hope I don't put the Yikes Vikes curse on him..."
Commish says: Wait there's a YikesVikes curse? DO YOU SELL MERCH
@maupind4 (Keith Mitchell, YEYPO): "There is no surety when picking a one and done golfer, it’s all balls and shaft! The balance of those two is pretty much impossible as last week showed. I don’t want to go into detail for everyone else’s well being. All I know is Keith Mitchell is super f***ed now that me, myself and the center of the universe just picked him to be the top dog at TPC! If anyone knows him, please apologize to him for me f***ing up his tournament as I am so important that I affect professional golfers events just by selecting them for a side game (which is spectacular by the way). Ribble, rabble, time for sleep."
Commish says: Do you expect to find yourself on the top of Keith Mitchell's enemies list after this week? Are you going to be checking for Mitchell's Men around every corner? Will Keith Mitchell challenge you to a boxing match that will be held as the undercard on the next Jake Paul PPV?!
@mahatma19 (Patrick Cantlay, Survivor): "I am choosing Cantlay because that was the nickname my girlfriend gave me back in college."
Commish says: My god let's very quickly move to the next comment
@NEELERSBTB1 (Patrick Cantlay, YEYPO): "I think Cantlay Canlay and willlay!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Commish says: This is the spiritual opposite of @mahatma19's post
@Mr_Rodgers_Neighborhood (Jon Rahm, YEYPO): "If I'm not saving him for this one, what is it all for? Tell me, what is it all for???"
Commish says: That is the big questions Rodgers, isn't it!? I've lied awake many a nights in my cheesehead wondering the same thing. JORDAN LOVE FOR GRAND POOBAH!!!
@BigFurryWookiee (Jon Rahm, YEYPO): "Well I picked him this week so he's definitely going to crash back down to earth. Sorry about the tourney cut, Mr. Rahm."
Commish says: WE ARE NOT ALL JINXED I PROMISE.
@Ickey_Woods_Shuffle (Jason Day, YEYPO): "Beware the Ides of March. Men at some time are masters of the fates. But in ourselves, that we are underlings. It is in Jon Rahm we have come to hate. We can no longer wait for a win in April or May. We have SZN YEYPO we must play. Too early to use Rory, Rahm, Schef or even Cantlay. So against my better judgement and all odds, I will select Jason Day..."
Commish says: SHAKESPEARE IS WEEPING
Joefine28 (Jason Day, YEYPO): "Win or withdraw, let it be his Day."
Commish says: We may have to start a new award: Best (Worst) Jason Day Pun of the Week
@Awuwert (Sahith Theegala, YEYPO): "Full swing on Netflix has me thinking this guy is due. Come on Netflix help me out!"
Commish says: This is the YEYPO version of doing your own research.
@iheartsloths (Rory McIlroy, YEYPO): "Rory is so hot right now."
Commish says: Update from @iheartsloths after round 1: "Rory sucks!"
@StatCzar (Patrick Cantlay, YEYPO): "I just wanna do well enough to start talking trash to Merf again"
Commish says: And you used Mr. Goldman Sachs as your vessel?!?
@Eannarelli (Sahith Theegala, YEYPO): "I am so far behind in this that if I was a golfer on this page there is no shot in hell that I would have a head shot."
Commish says: YEYPO GOLFER HEADSHOTS AS A METAPHOR FOR LIFE
@4dwPicks (Seamus Power, Survivor): "Is it moxie when you have most of the Top 20 golfers left in the Big John, but you go deeper into the list for The Players, or just dumb?"
Commish says: IT IS MOXIE
@kbanaian (Viktor Hovland, YEYPO): "Viktor is the only answer to the question "what PGA Tour pro would I most want to play with and who would not be offended by my asking him to imitate the Swedish Chef from the Muppets?" Can I get a Bork Bork Bork?"
Commish says: BORK BORK BORK WHAT IS HAPPENING WHY AM I DOING THIS
@Henpen77 (Viktor Hovland): "Boom Shakalaka!"
Commish says: EXPERIENCING THE SUDDEN URGE TO PLAY NBA JAM!!!
Yours in metal stick swinging,
The Commish