Friends in football,

Imagine you asked me 1 year ago who would be in image atop the 2023 Week 1 PICKS email.

I could have rattled off 10-20 candidates in short order.

Sam Howell, who looks like what happens when you ask AI to make a Baker Mayfield-Josh Allen baby, WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ONE OF THEM.

For the uninitiated, PICKS emails helped build this place:

• They're long but skimmable.
• The comments (near the end) are the best part.
• Commish has 15 YEARS of pick data that he pulls from in his stats.
• Enjoy these emails over a cup of coffee, or Monday at work when you don't want to work.
• Commish is ALWAYS game for feedback on how to make 'em better.

 

COMMISH COMMENTARY

Commish is happy we're at least abiding by the Survivor Golden Rules. Our top three BIG Survivor picks (Ravens, Commanders, Vikings) collectively do not violate ANY rules.

Though, if I squint, Cards-Commanders DOES worry me.

Golden Rule #3: Records Matter More Than Perception.

Put another way, just look at facts and nothing else. Try not to let media narratives - or Uncle Bob's narratives - influence you TOO much.

People think the Cards are tanking. The might go 0-17. They're putting Kyler on ice so as to preserve his trade value when they inevitably hire Coach Prime who then convinces Caleb Williams to let Arizona draft him.

But. BUT! (Commish always has a but.)

The Commanders were -22 in point differential last year (so, an 8-9 or 7-10 team on paper). And it's possible they downgraded at QB (it's also possible they upgraded; we just don't know). And Arizona's current QB, Josh Dobbs, was... perfectly mediocre last year. And nothing motivates NFL players like people telling them they suck.

AND HAVE I MENTIONED SAM HOWELL WAS BORN IN A TEST TUBE IN JOSH ALLEN'S BASEMENT?

Jokes aside, Commish gets the pick. There isn't a better week (ON PAPER) to pick the Commanders. If they win, this was probably the best value pick of the week.

But if it's close and you're sweating bullets and considering throwing a super pointy paper airplane at the sky to nail the survivor gods - only to remember you're at a bar and there's a ceiling and you're 7.3 Bud Light Limes deep - just remember... Commish warned you.

 

FUN PICK STATS

Changing this section up a bit. I'll highlight cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. If you want the basics (like all the teams with the most picks), just click the links in the "WEEK 1 PICKS" section.

Picking EVERY team

• As has become customary, EVERY available team got at least 1 pick in The BIG Survivor.
• But incredibly, every team got AT LEAST 6 PICKS.
• That speaks to how difficult this Week 1 is, at least in terms of what Vegas
• believs are evenly matched teams.
• Even the "worst" picks on the board were good enough for 6+ people to stake their BIG Survivor lives on it.
• Loser Survivor also saw at least every team picked 4+ times.

Well... except the Pats?

• In our "All 32" One-and-Done, where you must pick every NFL team exactly one time to win a game, all available teams got picked...
• ... except the Pats.
• My how the mighty have fallen.

What WeeWoo tells us about pick confidence

• I always say that our Weekly Pick'em ("WeeWoo" for short) is the truest read of our confidence level on each favored team.
• We go Ravens (99%), Vikings (95%), Commanders (94%), Jags (91%), Eagles (91%), Seahawks (87%).
• No other team got 80%+ of our picks.
• That again shows it's a tough week to pick. We often get 10+ teams at the 80% mark.
• And it proves that more of us would be on the Ravens in The BIG Survivor if it wasn't a "use each team only once" format.

Ravens a top 4 all-time SZN Survivor team

• Over our 15 years doing this, only 4 teams have posted 70%+ win rates when picked by at least one person in The BIG Survivor
• Those teams: Pats, Chiefs, Packers, Ravens.
• There are also just 4 teams to have a 90%+ pick winning percentage.
• Those teams: Packers, Seahawks, Bills... Ravens.
• The key to last year's brutal Week 1 was to... ride the Ravens
• Lamar and Co. have a big-time SZN rep to uphold today.

 

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win BFIG without a little Moxie!

@taraperrin (Jets, BIG Survivor): "#moxy lets gooooo"
Commish says: The team playing the Bills? Bearing Atlas-level pressure on its shoulders? YOU SPELLED IT WRONG BUT YOUR HEART AND SOUL AND UNASSAILABLE MOXIE ARE IN THE RIGHT PLACE!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment

@Twert23 (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "Putting my season on the line with a heart pick to start this off! The first pick of the year is like being a teenager all over again! So either a high like the very first beer bong of your life or straight depression like your girl left you for your best friend after making out with him in the middle of the first school party of your senior year! It’s all out there, but you have no idea what’s gonna happen!"
Commish says: Odds this is a true story and your childhood best friend did you so dirty: High. Odds you are in BFIG and they are not and thus you are doing SO MUCH BETTER IN LIFE: VERY VERY HIGH!!!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Listen2zyetti (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "I used to start he year by picking the teams that are clearly the best. This year I'm starting by picking against the teams that should be the worst. QBs that are the #1 overall pick haven't won their first game in over 20 years. The last was David Carr in 2002. Did I just jynx myself? Probably. But I'm going Falcons against a Panthers… Nope, going Ravens, that stat is being mentioned too much in the media. Bryce Young definitely gonna break the streak."
Commish says: DAVID CARR REFERENCE IN THE HOUSE!!!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Tylo_Snoyer (Stafford, QB OAD): "Picking Matthew Stafford to lead the league in passing this week is like choosing a Ferrari in a race full of golf carts. He's about to sling touchdowns like it's a halftime show, and the opposing defenses will be left asking for autographs instead of tackles. Get ready for the Stafford Air Show, where every pass is a potential touchdown and every defender is a passenger on the struggle bus! Buckle up, fantasy owners – it's gonna be a wild ride to the top of the passing charts! #StaffordSlinger #PassingKing"
Commish says: Who are you and can we hire you to do marketing for The SZN?

 

MORE COMMENTS

@TylerAllegeierStan (WeeWoo): "I lvoe you Tyler Allegeier"
Commish says: A stan account that misspells both its subject's name and "love" is the frontrunner for favorite SZN surprise of 2023.

@AwesomeSausage (Colts, Loser Survivor): "Colts going down like a drunk person playing Jenga."
Commish says: I looked up whether we had an @AwesomeSauce in our community. We do. Can the two of you please duel?

@mtoom85 (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "I’d rather get a pep talk from Ben Stein rather than Jon Gannon."
Commish says: I lol'd

@kempsoos (WeeWoo): "WE'RE BACK BABY!!! To fully understand my excitement you have to hear a story that explains a little bit about me... This past weekend I am out running errands in a beautiful suburb in the Twin Cities area and decide to stop into a local coffee shop for some clean energy. I'm minding my business perusing the menu as I wait in line. Finally I get to the counter and before I can say anything the Barista looks me up and down, lets out an exasperated sigh gives a slight eyeroll and says "Yes, we have Espresso Martinis".... Mind you its 9:15 in the morning on what is technically a weekday! but this 19 year old girl took one look at me and had seen enough. I was uphauled, I was offended, I was hurt... I was quick to order two Martinis with the expresso on the side. I tipped the Barista well for being an excellent judge of character and left with my head held high. A man of the people, a Sports obsessed degenerate and a member of the SZN! and no amount of side-eye from the minivan driving moms of 3 in the coffee shop can take that away from me!"
Commish says: I'm a MAN! I'm 40! I'm a member of THE SZN!

@Jpc190847 (Bears, BIG Survivor): "Please don’t go out first week like last year… where I also picked the Texans to lose… "
Commish says: I love pick comments that make it obvious someone changed their pick. Away from the Texans and INTO THE LOVING ARMS OF A 1-POINT FAVORITE. Love your boldness, JPC.

@judigregry (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "This is year #11 for me…where the heck did the time go? 11 is my favorite number so let’s see if it brings me luck! Although my best luck would be if #9 made a return! I can dream! <3"
Commish says: Being in The SZN for 10+ years means Commish knows that when you make a Ravens pick and talk about "#9" you're actually talking about Drew Brees (a destructive survivor force in his day).

@TeamMeatball (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "So f***ing pumped to be 0% confident in this pick after what you guys did to us in week 1 last year. I should probably just ask the next toddler I see who I should go with. "
Commish says: IS TEAM MEATBALL ACCEPTING NEW MEMBERS

@geez (Bengals, Loser Survivor): "My fav late 90s mtv films produced football movie (not being too specific here) has a lead character QB named “Mox”… Jonathan Moxon for the govment. Let me channel the “Mox” by picking against the closest real life version of Mox in Joe Cool… F*** Kilmer !! (That’s Bud not Val… Mad Martigan is a HOFer !!)"
Commish says: Does anyone know Mox? Someone has to know Mox. GET MOX IN THE POOL!!!

@Trentoff (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "I never pick the Vikings. I’m not sure I’ve ever, picked the Vikings, autocorrect originally had yhus written as I never picked the Vikings. Have I done the right thing by changing it? Because there aint no changin it now. I’ve never gone with the 'pick your own team' philosophy, I’m getting out of the way week 1. Before the Vikes go 5-12. Skol!! Po more autoconnect kneaded hair."
Commish says: BEHOLD. The Inverse Hedge of Happiness! Done only by the boldest and strongest-willed among us. If your team wins, you are DOUBLY happy. If your team loses you... let's not talk about it.

@mick (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Whew!!! Got in just in time. Word of advice... You can't win if you don't get out of week one. Play it safe. Don't do what I normally do and take the bears (who will win the Superbowl). Play it safe. It's Baltimore this week "
Commish says: MICK. Of ALL years to stop picking the Bears in Week 1... you choose the year they're expected to be decent AND are playing a Rodgers-less Packers team at home? If there was EVER an appropriate time for an Inverse Hedge of Happiness for Bears fans, it's TODAY.

@chadstout (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "This might be the first time in the last 20 years I could pick the Bears to beat the Packers but I’m gonna use this opportunity to get a win from the Commanders"
Commish says: BEARS FAN C'MONNNNNN

@Flem (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "I just read that Baker Mayfield hasn’t received any texts from Tom Brady since taking over his team. I have to assume Brady destroyed his phone, as one does every 8 months or so, so I guess we’ll never know for sure. The story didn’t mention whether Mayfield has texted Brady. I choose to believe that he has, and every once in a while he checks for a reply, feels a brief jolt of hope when those awful dots appear for a moment, then is plunged into overwhelming sadness when they disappear just as quickly. Anyway, this seems bad for the Bucs."
Commish says: Do we think Tom Brady cares about Baker? Do we think Tom Brady cares about Billy B? Do we think Tom Brady cares about... anyone? WHO IS TOM BRADY?

@DaDarkKiller (WeeWoo): "Ravens over Texans— Daddy Lamar gonna absolutely murder Dame Harris
Falcons over Panthers— Bijan gonna turn into Dijon (mustard), so naturally they gonna bring out the GOAT of KR. Every Td gonna be by Cordelle and Panthers gonna get 0. EzZ dubs.
Bengals over Browns— Poop is brown. All I gotta say. Utter trash.
SF over Steelers— Brock is about to become the next Tom Brady, Najee gets all 5 of Steelers TDS, but because Brock is the next GOAT, he makes a comeback within the 2 min warning and SF wins by 21.
WAS over ARI—Brian Robinson turns into college Bijan Robinson and simply runs all over the Cardinals.
MIN over Bucs— Jordan Addy surpassed JJeff for the rookie record IN ONE GAME and simply shows Baker what a good WR looks like.
Jags over Colts— Turns out, it’s not just JT who doesn’t want to play for the Colts, it’s actually the entire team. EZ Dubs."
Commish says: Can we talk about a prediction that Najee gets FIVE TDs for the Steelers, but the Niners, trailing with 2 minutes left, pull out a comeback win by... 21 points? CAN YOU ALSO DO MARKETING FOR THE SZN?

@Ultragirlyini (Jets, Loser Survivor): "This one’s for you, Commish!"
Commish says: JORDAN LOVE FOR MVP!!!

@kbanaian (Texans, Loser Survivor): "I think I'm supposed to NOT take the loser and winner from the same game? But why not? "
Commish says: WHAT IS YOU DOING BANAIAN

@courtland (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "Week 1 of a new season and I'm breaking my one and only betting rule?? You better believe it. I've spent all summer reading about how the Detroit Lions "have finally arrived" when they haven't done literally anything positive since Segregation, so yeah...it's not the wildest thing in the 2023 football realm. The Vikings are primed for statistical regression this season but week 1 against a Bucs team that has a brand new starting QB that is the human version of "I guess", 2 injury prone and aged WRs (one of whom wants to get PAID but doesn't deserve that kind of money) & calls Home in the worst state in America...I'll take my chances."
Commish says: WHAT IS YOU DOING, COURTLAND. THERE ARE 32 TEAMS IN THE NFL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO PICK THE VIKINGS OR THE SAINTS.

@mrcmike75 (Jets, "All 32" OAD): "This pick made in mushroom heaven!"
Commish says: I mean, odds that Rodgers is microdosing on some shit that Joe Rogan told him about while off the air is... disturbingly high. And the odds that, if true and if Rodgers proceeds to suck, he'll blame it on something like Tylenol being evil... DISTURBINGLY HIGH.

@ekahn93 (Ravens, QB OAD): "I honestly had no idea the Colts were starting Anthony Richardson until I saw this list. Motion to Commish to add a loser QB category next year. Call it QB-None-And-Done."
Commish says: THIS IS A GREAT IDEA

@mikulis (WeeWoo): "Here's the deal, it's the time of hope. Over 60% of us had our hopes and dreams crushed last year in the first week. Some may say, "great, one less thing to worry about." I for one want as many people as possible to survive week one so that come week two, everyone agonizes over the survivor pick. In agony there is opportunity for us mere mortals to succeed here in WeeWoo. So let's cheer for hopes and dreams to survive every week. All those happy thoughts and delusions of grandeur and mountains of BLL purchased with expected wins in the BFIG will lead to agony every Wednesday night/ Thursday. And maybe this is my way if preparing myself for the inevitable, and have this outside of the box thinking please the gods and let me sneak a few dollars out of a weekly win in the WeeWoo! In the name of the Ravens, the parlays, and of the long shots coming through when I have no choices left. Amen."
Commish says: "Here's the deal... it's the Time of Hope" sounds like the perfect way for us to begin our SZN infomercials that air only in the early am hours, in between Gone With The Wind and reruns of Family Matters.

@Mcheavens13 (Cousins, QB OAD): "This pick all depends on kirk’s wife’s pregame outfit selection. Give me the Sunday afternoon church lunch fit and we are getting a 400 piece. C’mon Julie, don’t let me down!"
Commish says: Never has one show made one "meh" professional athlete more likeable than the Netflix QB show and Kirky (and Julie) Cousins

@TigersLovePepper (49ers, BIG Survivor): "The only thing I’m sure about is that Brock Purdy is worth 3 1st round picks, a 2nd rounder, and about $6M this year. There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese."
Commish says: Orlando Steele would have drafted Brock Purdy without wasting all those picks.

@DumbLuck (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "This is the easiest pick of the season. We have the first home game for the Commanders after lifting the 800 pound gorilla known as Dan Snyder from its back and they just so happen to be playing the Cardinals who are tanking harder for Caleb Williams than anyone else. I'm so confident that I would put my house on this one, if I could afford to buy a house."
Commish says: Dan Snyder is definitely the unhappiest person to make 6 billion dollars in history right? Like, by far? No one likes him, he tried to sell out his partners so no one will ever again do business with him, and now none of the rich and powerful people have any reason to ever talk to them as he can't even hook them up with tickets anymore.

@Robbiehorstman (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "Well this is a shit week to start the survivor pool. I’m hell bent on picking a home team. The only other mandatory criteria is that it must be a stadium in which Morgan Wallen has played a show this year. As my mullet is growing in strong, this feels right. But if Washington loses, I may have to pivot and fanboy Morgan by shaving my head. Welp, no turning back now."
Commish says: SEND MULLET PHOTOS IN A SAM HOWELL JERSEY OR IT DOESN'T COUNT

@Jayhav3 (WeeWoo): "Picking the correct teams on week 1 of the NFL is like ordering a variety pack of Flavored Bud LIghts and hoping you pick the right one and its a BLL! Lucky for me, I only order cases of BLL, so these picks are locks! 15-0 week 1 locks!"
Commish says: If any of you drink any flavor except lime - including unflavored - DON'T @ ME

@BigE (WeeWoo): "What an undecided bunch of picks. The the last time I was this undecided I ended up single."
Commish says: HOW DOES CHOOSING OUTFITS IN THE MORNING GO FOR YOU, BIGE

@Eannarelli (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Commish has been blowing up my email as if I was never going to join Survivor this year. This guy. We back like Tommy Fleetwood is with the Ryder Cup. "
Commish says: Y DO U MAKE ME DO IT, RELLI.

@dinkaroo (WeeWoo): "What the hell is a Brown? Whatever, they upset Bengals"
Commish says: A BROWN IS AN ESTEEMED FOOTBALL FRANCHISE. I MEAN ELF.

@phillipsjtim (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "Edgar Allan Poe would’ve paid Lamar Jackson sooner"
Commish says: YES HE WOULD HAVE

@Ragozin (WeeWoo): "Jordan Love will beat the Bears Week 1 and have a better career with the Packers than both Rodgers and Favre."
Commish says: R U MY BEST FRIEND

@ContrarianDFS (Ravens, BIG Survivor): "I'm 100% confident that I'm not 100% confident in my pick. "
Commish says: HE'LL BE HERE ALL WEEK FOLKS

@IronCityPorchrocker (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "The aerospace engineer under center for Arizona won't even get the Cardinals into flight against the Commanders"
Commish says: ELITE USERNAME ALERT

@tim_schlueter (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "Sam Howell is my hall pass"
Commish says: BUT IS HE REAL?!?

@MLGJoe (Cardinals, "All 32" OAD): "My wife’s boyfriend is a Cardinals fan and I don’t like the guy."
Commish says: Wait, wait, I AM SO CONFUSED

 

Yours in football,
The Commish