Friends in football,

Commish woke up ecstatic to see Jordan Love take his second step toward the MVP trophy. It was gonna be a good day.

But then... he heard a low murmur that grew into a deafening chorus.

"Records matter more than perception" ... "Records matter more than perception" ... "RECORDS MATTER MORE THAN PERCEPTION"

Our top pick in The BIG Survivor (BFIG) is the Buffalo Bills... who are 0-1 and facing a 1-0 team in the Las Vegas Jimmys.

Should we be scared about violating a Survivor Golden Rule? Commish breaks it down below...

 

COMMISH COMMENTARY

If you're new, know that the Survivor Golden Rules isn't just a bit.

Commish is full of shtick but I only belabor stuff that actually matters. Behind the shtick is MOUNTAINS of stats and wisdom gained over 15 years doing this.

Take Golden Rule #2, which is "Avoid Road Teams (if you can)".

Many people will say, "home field advantage doesn't really exist anymore in the NFL. Look it up."

And I'd reply, "I know it doesn't exist broadly speaking, but have you looked up the stats for SURVIVOR picks? Hmmmmmmmm?"

The numbers say that road teams STILL notably underperform home teams when it comes to big Survivor picks. Why? I don't know yet. I'm working on a unified theory that one of you can leak to Adam Schefter when it's done.

Circling back to Golden Rule #3 - Records Matter More Than Perception - far too many good BFIG men and women have fallen victim to preseason expectations that took too long to be adjusted for the records right in front of our faces.

In a league where, VERY consistently, half of the playoff field changes every year, trust the actual record more than Skip Bayless on adderall.

Is this arguably the best remaining week to pick the Bills, who play a very hard schedule? Yes. Arguably.

So just like last week with a top pick that scared me, Commish gets it. I get it so much I made the Bills my own pick.

But am I feeling good about it? Absolutely not.

 

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

Checking in on our Week 1 Bucs pickers

• Our biggest Week 1 loss was the Vikings, at home to the Bucs.
• 1,081 picked the Vikes in BFIG. 5 picked the Bucs.
• So who did those 5 Moxie heroes pick this week?
• @charliem1236, @CPenree, and @elainesacks took the Cowboys. @chisarsell took the Giants. So, a return to fairly standard picking.
• @Wizzy took... the Arizona Cardinals. ALL HAIL OUR MOXIE LORD!

Are we still picking every team?

• Yes we are.
• All 32 teams are in play in BFIG. Even the Rams - playing the Destroyer of Worlds 49ers - got 2 picks.
• The Raiders, opposite our top pick Bills, got 3 picks.
• In Loser Survivor and our "All 32" OAD, each team got at least one pick as well.

OK but nobody picked Zach Wilson in the QB pool... right?

• WRONG.
• Hey @Dilrod and @kevinhurtle, can you please invite me to your massive Jets ragers?
• I know you throw them. It's the only explanation for your incredible picks of Zach Wilson in a pool where you can literally pick ANY OTHER QUARTERBACK.
• Commish can you give us more on the "home field still matters" thing?
• Last year in BFIG, 49% of all picks were on home teams and 51% were on away teams. We pick like it doesn't matter.
• But our success rate on those picks? 53% for home teams and 45% for away teams.
• (Other macro point: 2022 was a brutally hard survivor year.)
• Let's look at 2021. Home pick win rate: 87%. Away pick win rate: 69%. An even bigger gap.
• There isn't a single year that flips this result. And until we see one, Commish will bang the drum for Golden Rule #2: Avoid Road Teams (if you can).

Let's see some Bonus W2 Wins Battle stats!

• Fun pool format: We create 16 matchups of teams predicted to have same/similar regular season records. You select the team in each matchup you feel will finish with the better record.
• The top of our board (and Vegas' board) was Chiefs-Bengals. Both lost in Week 1. We STILL went Chiefs 86% to 14%.
• Closest matchup? Raiders (55%) vs. Titans (45%). Big "shrug emoji" on that one.
• Rodgers' injury ruined what was otherwise a juicy matchup of Lions-Jets. (We broke for the Lions at 91%.)
• The Falcons and Packers are both 1-0 but Commish's Jordan Love propaganda is working, as we broke for the Packers at 92%.
• Bills-Jags is intriguing, and 38% of us say the Jags will finish with the better record.
• Commish is guessing very few of those 38% are riding the Bills in BFIG this week...

 

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win BFIG without a little Moxie!

@mwuzzardo (Colts): "Rookie QB vs Rookie QB in week 2. Must win to avoid the 0-2 start. Yeah I'll take the ROAD team with their star RB on the "Injury" list. lets go COLTS!!!! "
Commish says: Me, a few days ago: "Will anyone touch that Colts-Texans game, which checks every box there ever was about games that are possible to predict?" ... Me, an hour ago: "Oh and not just that - the Colts are the road team in a divisional game." ... Me, now: "GET ON WITH YOUR BAD MOXIE SELF, WUZZARDO." (And all of Wuzzardo's Colts OR Texans picking brethren.)

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Jimbo (Bills, BIG Survivor): "So the 5 "best" picks this week are teams that:
- Lost to the Zach Wilson Experience
- Are playing the undefeated Zach Wilson Experience, fresh off a huge upset
- Got absolutely pasted at home by Dak Prescott's hip exercises and the Cowboys' defense.
- Are playing a road divisional game against a Rams team that just won a road divisional game where they were heavy underdogs
- are the Philadelphia Eagles
Well, time to pick one of the non-Eagles ones and have that work out really well. Those 5 are going no better than 2-3. See you in Second Chance Survivor."
Commish says: THIS MAN GETS IT. (And like Commish, he also picked the Bills. Proof that you're not always gonna be able to abide by every Golden Rule.)

@Flem (WeeWoo): "Shhhh... did you hear that? Wee-woo. Weee-wooo. What's that sound? Wee-woo. Weee-wooo. It’s uncanny. Is it comforting? Or terrifying? Wee-woo. Weee-wooo. Is it the cozy old porch swing at your grandparents farmhouse on an early fall afternoon while you sip apple cider and listen to Pap’s half-drunk tales of football before there were such atrocities as instant replay or roughing the quarterback? Wee-woo. Weee-wooo. Or is it the rusty dumb waiter creaking up from the depths in the middle of the night at the 19th-century murder house you convinced your wife and kids to uproot your lives for so you could turn it into a B&B and forget all about the time you got eliminated in Week 1 of both survivor and loser survivor? Wee-woo. Weee-wooo. Answer: it is both. It is pleasure, and it is pain. It is horror, and it is happiness. But more than these, it is eternal hope. And most importantly, thanks to Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow, it is all you have left for the next 17 weeks. Embrace it. Weee-wooo."
Commish says: BRB making a shirt that reads "ROUGHING THE QUARTERBACK IS AN ATROCITY."

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Thrillhouse (Buccaneers, BIG Survivor): "Any man with the confidence to work 8 Drake song titles into his postgame interview is more than capable of handling this Bears team at home. Taking Baker Mayfield to ensure Chicago is still starting from the bottom next week at 0-2."
Commish says: The smoothness with which Baker did this. I feel like dude could have gone 15 or 20 Drake songs deep. (Maybe he will this week? The Bucs should DEFINITELY do this bit all SZN long.)

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@MayTheFavrthBeWithYou (Giants): "The Giants. Coming off of a 40-pt loss on national tv. Am I drunk? Do I hate myself? Yes and yes. Let’s ride, Commish. "
Commish says: Are you stone-cold sober? Are you chock full of steely wisdom? Does Commish have unflinching love for your Moxie? Yes, YES, and YES!!

 

MORE COMMENTS

@dgsaites (Buccaneers, BIG Survivor): "BFIG haiku:
Pick against the bears
As sure as the sun rises
Love will conquer all.
GO PACKERS "
Commish says: I was wondering why my center of gravity felt off. Then I read our first @dgsaites haiku of 2023 and EVERYTHING IS RIGHT AGAIN.

@rnorwood (Lions, BIG Survivor): "I'm usually one to zig whilst others zag. In this case I'm jumping on to a crowded Lions bandwagon filled with a heap of kids that smell like hotdog water. Sláinte!"
Commish says: I think I saw Lions-branded hotdog water being sold at the local bodega for $15/bottle. The line was around the block.

@Mshabazz32 (Chiefs, Loser Survivor): "Not many games that I think they’ll lose. Fingers crossed that this is one of them."
Commish says: OH HELL YES. What a pick!

@tcsung93 (Colts, BIG Survivor): "WHO WILL WIN BETWEEN THE BATTLE OF THE BUTTCHEEKS? "
Commish says: This is exactly the type of energy I'd expect from the type of hero who'd pick Colts-Texans 2023 in a survivor pool.

@YikesVikes (Tua, QB One-and-Done): "Entering Week 2, there is still one thing Tagovailoa has not done in the NFL: lose to the New England Patriots. As Miami and New England prepare to do battle on Sunday night at the Gillette Stadium, the Dolphins quarterback has seemingly had the Patriots’ number with four wins in four starts. So what who really wins on Sunday Night - Carrie Underwood makes $1 million every Sunday night. Factoring in the 18-week season, Underwood cashes in for $18 million every football season. Remarkably, Underwood has been the voice of SNF for 11 years. Tua for SZN pick but Carrie for the overall winner. "
Commish says: I didn't believe this and so I looked it up. MY LORD, CARRIE UNDERWOOD. Can someone please introduce me to her agent, so they can negotiate... literally everything in my life?

@Nickj92 (W2 Wins Battle): "Cardinals win 7 games this season and surprise everyone. "
Commish says: SPICY! But wait... propelled by... what exactly?

@bwesthoff (Giants, BIG Survivor): "I can't believe I am picking a road team that lost 40-0 in week 2. Reading this comment after the game will only confirm to my future self that past me knew he was an idiot."
Commish says: NO COMMENT MOVING ON.

@EWD (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Bills by 70… As long as Josh Allen cuts that early 90s accountant hair he’s sporting in the Verizon commercial. It’s the only logical reason for his meltdown against the Jets. "
Commish says: FLAWLESS LOGIC. NEXT.

@Erincox77 (WeeWoo): "Last week my son said "I didn't know you like football, mom." What happened to all my hobbies? Where did I go for the last 10 years?!? Sunday family day is nice, but so is football. And now that he's a hormonal tween, I can return to lazy Sundays enjoying football! Thank you for pulling me back Commish!"
Commish says: YOU'RE WELCOME. Also... you know it's coming... GET YOUR SON IN THE POOL!!!

@TheGMs_Wife (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "I begrudge this pick but don’t have the balls to pick the Giants. Will likely regret in week 12. See you then @theCommish and @theGM. O wait… nvm, @theGM is already out."
Commish says: That's my teammate. (Sniffle.) That's my GM. (Sniffle.) BE NICER, GM's wife. (I'm kidding never change.)

@robbobobbo (Bills, BIG Survivor): "We used to have a Bills-branded foam brick to throw at the television, typically for when Wade Phillips would put in Rob Johnson over Doug Floutie. I'm picking Bills over Raiders to stem the false nostalgia for those halcyon days of low expectations."
Commish says: WE NEED A PIC OF THE BRICK!

@matthewburke11 (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Are we sure Josh Allen is good?"
Commish says: I have... also asked this question... this week. WHY DID I PICK THE BILLS. WHY DID YOU PICK THE BILLS.

@DumbLuck (Saints, BIG Survivor): "Since I'm an idiot and picking a crapshoot that will probably blow up in my face, I am taking this opportunity to call my shot on the first devastating upset of the season. Are the Bills actually good? They couldn't keep Allen upright and he was a turnover machine last week as a result. I predict Maxx Crosby and crew wreak havoc on the Bills offensive line and Jimmy G plays solid ball to nick an upset. "
Commish says: This is the script!

@LeviLeo (Josh Allen, QB One-and-Done): "Why can't I pick Blake Bortles?"
Commish says: I WAKE UP EVERY MORNING AND ASK MYSELF THIS.

@mikulis (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "Friends (in football), (haters of Greg) Roman[s], countrymen, lend me your ears... I come to pick in BFIG, not to praise this pick. The evil that Met Life field did to the Jets' season lives after, the good is that they still won at home. So let it be with TheSzn. The noble Commissioner hath told you a pick of the Jets was ambitious, if it were so it was a grievous thought, and grievously hath Rodgers answered it. Here under leave of Leonard Floyd and the rest. For the Commissioner is an honorable man. So are they all. All honorable men. Come I to speak at Rodgers' injury. He was my QB, faithful and just to SZN. But the Football gods said he was to be injured And the Football gods are honorable entities. Rodgers hath won many wagers I have made These victories did my coffers fill: Did a Jets win to the the gods seem ambitious? When the Bills have lost, Fans hath wept The Szn should be made of sterner stuff: Yet the Commish says the Jets were ambitious; And the GM is an Honorable man. (ok, Shakespeare I am not, so I'll skip a bit here) Oh BFIG Picks! thou art fled to torn Achilles, And men have lost their reason. Bear with me; My heart is in walking boot there with Rodgers. And I must pause till it come back to me. That all said, Picking the Cowboys over the Jets, because, well Jets gonna Jets."
Commish says: The skies cleared, and a voice came from the heavens... it was Shakespeare!... "JETS GONNA JETS, BRUH."

@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "I reserve the right to change this pick if Tom Terrific is under center for the Jets next week."
Commish says: I'd like to note that this username existed BEFORE Week 1. Doubt this human at your own risk. And if Brady suits up for the Jets, I shall edit "human" to "voodoo priest".

@D_Bo (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "Football season starts and I get amped up like Jessie Spano on caffeine pills studying for exams. Then week 2 hits and "I'm so excited, I'm so excited, I'm so excited..." turns into, "I'm so scared." That sums up my feelings on this pick."
Commish says: The fact you made it all the way through Week 1 without already feeling scared is IMPRESSIVE.

@Nomorenamesleft (Giants, BIG Survivor): "Some people said the Giants looked liked scared rabbits running from a fight against the Cowboys last week. I think they looked liked angry rabbits, running from a fight with the Cowboys to get into another fight with the Cardinals. All four awards locked up for the week"
Commish says: This was so bad it was good. But you're gonna have to keep trying for those awards and TONE DOWN THE CONFIDENCE.

@Bukjuan (Seahawks, Loser Survivor): "When it comes to picking losers... the Rainy City B!tch Pigeons are always the first to spring to mind"
Commish says: I laughed way too hard at this. How many other people on Earth call them that?!

@alexmace4 (Seahawks, Loser Survivor): "Once again fading my BFIG pick, definitely won't regret this strategy in a few weeks...."
Commish says: STOP DOING THIS, MACE

@Jrahm WeeWoo): "I have a feeling that Minnesota can pull this one off. The Eagles struggled in the 4th quarter even though they pulled out the win."
Commish says: I didn't know the world's best golfer was a Minnesota Vikings fan.

@MagicDreams (Giants, BIG Survivor): "Because… Duh. Ok so it’s a road team but you tell me who the obvious home team to pick this week? I’m sure the picks will be quite diversified this week. The Giants can’t play that poorly 2 weeks in a row and the Cardinals blew their chance to win a game they are actually competitive in. Both trends head back toward the middle this week in Arizona."
Commish says: You were correct in the diversified picks prediction. But gettt out of hereeee with this "can't play that poorly 2 weeks in a row" stuff! What if the Giants are bad this year? What if the Cardinals are fine? (Commish, c'monnnnn.) NO YOU C'MON!

@Pixieslovecrows (Lions, BIG Survivor): "ALL in. Lions Superbowl or bust."
Commish says: Inverse Hedge of Happiness alert! (Also, have we reached the irrational confidence part of this week's email?)

@mick (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "Have to get my Dallas pick in before they implode like every other season over the last 20 or so years... (side note bears are winning the Superbowl)"
Commish says: Lions irrational confidence? Check. Bears? Check. Packers? Check. WHERE IS THE VIKINGS SUPER BOWL PREDICTION?!

@facedown_satsup (Giants, BIG Survivor): "This is my third locked pick of the week I’m so in my own head I will be hiring a sports psychologist for BFIG what’s the opposite of moxie"
Commish says: You are just being DILIGENT.

@JoshAllenLooksGoodInShorts (Broncos, BIG Survivor): "JoshAllenLooksBadOnMNF"
Commish says: JoshAllenBetterNotKnockMeOut

@titansman4927 (Giants, BIG Survivor): "Based off last week, how can you not pick the G-Men?"
Commish says: EXCUSE ME SIR.

@mckett (Lions, BIG Survivor): "I'm a Jet Fan, nothing matters anymore..."
Commish says: WE STILL LOVE YOU. (But wait, you *just* hit this point?)

@Rednmeth (WeeWoo): "I’ve been a Jet fan for 28yrs!! I’ve, for the first time in my fandom, gone from the highest possible high to the lowest possible low in a total of 4!!! SNAPS!!"
Commish says: Hold up hold up hold up, @Rednmeth do you know @mckett? I FEEL LIKE WE NEED A SUPPORT GROUP ASAP.

@Lukachick10 (WeeWoo): "Jordan love also tears Achilles this week. "
Commish says: THIS IS HOW YOU GET BANNED FROM THE POOL.

@13KevinWhite11 (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "The Cowboys are harder to beat than Lauren Boebert’s boyfriend at a Beetlejuice musical."
Commish says: We're ending the email right now.

 

Yours in football,

The Commish