Friends in football,

The Jacksonville Jaguars are known for two things around these parts.

BORTLEMANIA!!! - the greatest QB hype cycle there ever was, always spelled with exactly 3 exclamation points - and generally torpedoing BFIG Survivor dreams.

The Jags are 1,051-1,356 all time in BFIG, and that 44% pick success rate ranks 5th worst. Only the Jets (43%), Saints (43%), Titans (33%), and Lions (28%) are worse.

We're back for more, making the Jags our top pick... in a divisional game, no less.

 

COMMISH COMMENTARY

You can choose to look at 15-year-long stats like "all-time BFIG pick success rate" and ignore them on account of "stuff that happened a decade ago has no bearing on this year."

OR you can consider those stats valid on account of "NFL organizations tend to be who they've always been" AND "BFIG has grown, so recent years have more weight."

Commish chooses "valid".

My take is also informed by the fact that, in 15 years doing this, general BFIG narratives have stayed shockingly consistent.

We overvalue the Saints at home (4th worst team in BFIG history). We do terribly picking AFC South games (3 out of 4 teams are below-.500 all-time in BFIG). The Patriots - even in their current form - almost never lose games they're heavily favored to win (except in Week 2, 2012; ugh). Ditto the Packers and Bills.

So, the Jags, until they prove otherwise over the span of multiple years, are the Jags. And we should feel a little less comfortable picking them than we would another similarly favored team.

Again, Commish does NOT advocate only making picks you feel super safe about. That won't win you a BFIG Title Belt. You need a little Moxie.

I'm just here to scratch my greying beard, marvel at our 30-tab "BFIG ALL-TIME PICKS" spreadsheet, and drop some healthy fear into your Sunday morning Bud Light Lime Flakes.

 

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

Can we talk about the 2 Houston pickers?

• That's right. Two brave souls looked fear in the eye and clicked that Texans logo in BFIG.
• @dfanning has gone WAS-NYG-HOU in Weeks 1-3, which clearly reflects a strategy to grab bad-to-mediocre teams at opportune times.
• @Katiedonohue66 has gone BAL-SF-HOU in Weeks 1-3, which reflects a BFIG spiritual awakening after two easy victories on likely playoff teams.

This is an unusually distributed BFIG week

• It's exorbitantly rare to have five teams above the 10% mark. It's only happened a few times in our 15 years.
• We have five teams that garnered at least 10% of our picks: Jags, Chiefs, Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks.
• It reflects not just a handful of large Vegas spreads (this happens a lot), but also a divergence of opinion on which team is the best value pick.
• It's easy to look at that quintet and say "the Jags and Seahawks are better value picks", but that might not be true. The Chiefs and Cowboys have difficult schedules this year, and you never want to be in a position where you failed to pick one of the league's best teams.

WeeWoo gives us insight on how we REALLY feel about those 5 big picks

• We ranked 'em Chiefs (99%), Cowboys (98%), Jags (96%), Niners (95%), Seahawks (94%).
• It's not entirely fair to say we lack confidence in Seattle, as 94% is often good enough to be the #1 overall WeeWoo pick for a given week.
• But let Commish also use this opportunity to remind you to STOP PICKING FAVORITES AT SUCH A HIGH RATE in WeeWoo. An NFL team is almost never a true 90% favorite, and rarely an 80% favorite. I'll yell at you at least 5 more times about this as the SZN goes.

We LOADED UP on Kirky in the QB One-and-Done pool

• Kirk's Vikings have an expected shootout with the Chargers on deck.
• We gave Kirk 31% of our picks, but only gave Herbert 10% of our picks.
• It's not like the Chargers run game is that prolific, y'all - especially without Ekeler!
• Kirk is #2 in NFL passing yards through two weeks. His 708 trails only Tua's 715.
• Only two other guys are even above 550 - Stafford and... C.J. Stroud.
• Might Stroud be the new Stat Padford?!

Loser Survivor picks tell a very different story

• The top of our Loser Survivor board: Giants (36%), Bears (27%), Cards (9%), Colts (6%).
• Why is it so far from being a mirror image of BFIG and WeeWoo, you ask?
• Primarily because so many people have already used the Texans (51%) and Cards (25%).
• Remember, the Golden Spreadsheet is always your best friend in Survivor and OAD pools. Here it is for Loser Survivor.
• The strategy is also just different. Really bad teams are at a higher premium in Loser Survivor than good teams are in normal Survivor.
• That's why "only" 34% of survivors have used the Cards through three weeks.

 

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win BFIG without a little Moxie!

@GTdaLEGEND (Jets, BIG Survivor): "Why am I doing this to myself? The world may never know."
Commish says: Oh no. No, no no no. GRANT. Grant, lifelong New Yorker and loyal Jets fan, what is you doing? STEP AWAY FROM THE COMPU... GRANT!!!!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Alamb (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "Ok, so I am a Swiftie. Taylor Swift songs, lyrics and random trivia are something I know a lot about. I am all for a Taylor and Travis Kelce love story. Their names both start with T, they were both born in 1989. And it’s really fitting that she is rereleasing 1989 (Taylor’s version) and also dating someone born in 1989. Like Taylor, I love a good theme. The only suspicion I have is because Taylor is an Eagles fan. Who just beat the Eagles in a Super Bowl? The Kansas City Chiefs. Is Taylor up to something? Is she dating Travis just to crush him like her soul was crushed after the Eagles lost the Super Bowl? Is she planning on being the Super Bowl halftime performance, and this is her Easter egg to the fans?! I can’t wait to see how this plays out! All pick comments will have some Taylor Swift lyric until this rumor is confirmed or denied. "
Commish says: Is this the next great Netflix sports documentary? Or is it more like true crime? A murder mystery? I'M NOT SURE THE GENRE BUT LET'S GET THIS SHIT PRODUCED!!!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Wedge1011 (Vikings, All 32 OAD): "Minnesota might not win a 1 score game all year. But if they're going to put one together, you can bet it's gonna be against the bolts!"
Commish says: A 38-37 Vikings win, where the Chargers were leading 34-17 going into the 4th, followed by a fired up Vikings fanbase watching the Vikes lose every subsequent one score game this year... would be the most Vikings thing AND the most Chargers thing that could happen in 2023.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@rnorwood (49ers, All 32 OAD): "Ever have that dream where you see yourself standing in sort of sun-god robes on a pyramid with a thousand naked women throwing little pickles at you? Or am I the only one who has that dream?"
Commish says: $1,000 to anyone who asks Bill Belichick this question in a presser.

 

MORE COMMENTS

@Jsun13 (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "The best way to win this pool... ALWAYS bet against the Bears. Sincerely, A depressed Bears Fan #PovertyFranchise"
Commish says: IT'S BEEN 2 WEEKS, JSUN.

@13KevinWhite11 (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "The Bears get beat so bad two more coaches resign by halftime"
Commish says: Wait wait wait... is this a Bears dumpster fire comment from a Kevin White (in BOTH his Bears jersey numbers) tribute username? IS THIS WHAT THE MATRIX FEELS LIKE?

@ryovercash (WeeWoo): "Getting married on Saturday, let's make some honeymoon fun money this week!"
Commish says: Your spouse better be in The SZN or I'm showing up and objecting. (Congrats!)

@ryanandrade (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "We now live in a world where I am pouncing on the Jags to win and thinking "oh this one is a lock, easy money"... it has been decades in the making for the Jags. Nobody has ever felt this good about picking the Jaguars in survivor... ever... and that is cause for concern. As such I intend to smash five Bud Light Limes on Sunday to ensure the survivor gods do not try to smite me for hubris"
Commish says: I was unsure about this comment AND THEN I WAS VERY SURE ABOUT IT.

@amacgill (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "A decidedly Moxie-less pick. But not one without risk. Kind of like eating a bagged salad - it rarely, but occasionally, can go horribly wrong..."
Commish says: Sounds like MY KIND OF PICK. But for the record I do not eat bagged salad. YOU DON'T MAKE FRIENDS WITH (BAGGED) SALAD!

@BelicheckYourself (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "Swear to god if we the Seahawks don’t win this week they don’t deserve to play. Don’t f*** with me you overly confident bird."
Commish says: BAGGED SALAD!!!

@Listen2zyetti (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "I had the Seachickens, and then the Panthers ruled out Bryce Young and announced Andy Dalton as the starter. Have you ever seen a Broadway Show where the star actor is out and the understudy fills in? They always crush it. Now Dalton is older and less full of life and hope, but he still scares me. So I’m instead picking the lowest hanging fruit. Chiefs, at home, versus the train-wreck Bears. Even as a Packers fan, this self-implosion has been hard to watch."
Commish says: What screams "Upset Alert" more than an old man who is less full of life and hope?!

@BigBallsDickson (49ers, BIG Survivor): "When I last played years ago. I bought into the idea of having moxie. Now I'm just playing to stay alive. 3 weeks from now doesn't matter....only this week matters. Pick the safe team. At first I thought this was going to be the Cowboys. But something smells over there and I'm running scared. So, I pick the home team on a short week. Thursday's scare me but the Giants without their star back feel a bit toothless. Here's hoping I'm not a fool. "
Commish says: Just don't forget to REDISCOVER the Moxie when you wake up from your BFIG success fever dream and it's Week 10 and you're still standing.

@BHass (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "It pains me to pick the Cowboys. This team has always caused me so much pain over the years, which says a lot coming from a Vikings fan. The Cowboys should win this game convincingly, however, I have a feeling this is one of those games where they will decide that they're going to shit the bed and attempt to one-up the performance of the Giants from the previous week. If the Cowboys loose to the piss poor Cardinals I am truly not worthy of being able to advance past the 3rd week. In the event this happens I plan to drown my sorrows with a case of Bud Light Lime while knowing that the my team picked up their first win over the Chargers. SKOL VIKINGS! Yes, they will win the Super Bowl. @BigDaddy said it, therefore it was written."
Commish says: Bring back the Most Vikings Fan Comment of the Week! BRING IT BACK!

@tjolson (Vikings, All 32 OAD): "Two teams at 0 & 2, Is this a good time to pick the Vikings for a home win? With me being at 0 & 2 in this pool, it can't hurt."
Commish says: I'm imagining you reading your pick comment to the tune of Soul Asylum's "Misery". YOU ARE A BRAVE MAN, TIM.

@suga1360 (Giants, Loser Survivor): "The Giants are a mess. I use the period instead of the exclamation point because it's just a matter of fact."
Commish says: A MAN WHO WIELDS THE POWER OF PUNCTUATION.

@Mr_Darwin (Giants, Loser Survivor): "I'm going vs my team. I deserve to lose"
Commish says: No no no. It's OK. You are simply deploying the Hedge of Happiness. Though, given the Giants' performance Thursday, maybe you're just deploying the "Salvaging Something from the Misery" strategy?

@RedEd4 (Bears, Loser Survivor): "My Bears are bad, so I might as well take 'em now in case something happens down the road, not likely, but slightly possible I guess?"
Commish says: Is this guarded optimism? WE'RE CALLING IT GUARDED OPTIMISM!

@LAhomer88 (WeeWoo): "It sucks so much to be the Jets right now. Most teams don't have their hopes dashed until about 5 games into the season. That gives everyone enough time to get used to the fact that the team is bad and it will be a disappointing year. Obviously, 4 plays was not enough time for the team to process that. It would be like if the Jamaican bobsled team made it to the Olympics and the rails fell off their bobsled 4 yards into their first run. At least in that scenario John Candy would've made it funny in the movie. This season will decidedly not be funny. It's going to be a Greek tragedy the likes of which Oedipus would cringe watching. "
Commish says: OK OK but then what play is the Bears' season?

@James_hunter (49ers, BIG Survivor): "Continuing my time honored tradition of picking against Jersey. This time via Bosa going up against a Giants offensive line missing 2 starters and a running back that couldn't hack it in San Fran, Buffalo, or Miami. As an added bonus it means I'll be able to relax and crush bud light limes at my nephew Link's 6th birthday this Sunday without having to worry about my BFIG pick."
Commish says: BUT WHO DID LINK PICK IN BFIG?

@D_Bo (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "After taking the Cowboys last week and feeling "so scared." I've changed my mantra to 'survive and advance.' It works so well in many things... don't say too much in a meeting to avoid saying something dumb - 'survive and advance'. Wake up hung over on the weekend, it's raining and the kids are going crazy - 'survive and advance.'. As in, survive a trip to the grocery store, read that your Jessie Spano comment makes Commish's weekend update, advance to Bloody Mary time and wash down a greasy cheeseburger with a BLL and proceed to nap time. Though I'm not sure the strategy for the pick, 'survive and advance'. As a long tormented Bears fan, I almost talked myself out of KC vs. a defense that can't get off the field on 3rd down, FBI investigations, coach shaming; it was all there for the upset. But, survive and advance kicks in and you use up your KC Chiefs pick and you advance to looking at what kind of draft pick the Bears can bungle in 2024."
Commish says: Can we get a weekly video segment from you, chronicling your "survive and advance" parent life until you reach Sunday football watching? I AM VERY SERIOUS.

@kempsoos (Cowboys, All 32 OAD): "If I last longer without a loss here than I do in BFIG I will RAGEEEE!"
Commish says: WHY DO YOU HATE PROSPERITY, KEMP-SOOS? Embrace your All 32 mastery! Bask in it. Make SZN t-shirts about it that conveniently have your referral QR code on it and talk about it ALL THE TIME.

@cegriffi (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "While the Chiefs easiest game of the year is obviously this week... I'm not messing with an angry Justin Fields coming in to rip apart Arrowhead... So I bet on a Jags team that has to be the highest losing % team since BFIG started. Or something like that. "
Commish says: Credit where credit is due! The inspiration for this week's Commish Commentary. (You were almost right, griffi.)

@Jmkahn (Giants, Loser Survivor): "Did you know A.J. Brown's real name is Arthur Juan Brown? Honestly thought the A might have stood for Antonio after I saw A.J. get loud on the sideline last week. But his shirt stayed on, so it must really be Arthur."
Commish says: It's Arthur Juan Brown, Sr. Here's to hoping Jr. goes by the nickname "Artie J".

@dgsaites (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "Bfig haiku:
"Hawk and panther fight
More interested in Deion
Hawk faster than duck"
Sorry to mix in college football here but, hey man, it’s the best story in sports! "
Commish says: IT WAS YOU. You dropped 8 syllables in your second line and it all fell apart for Deion and the Buffs. (But we still love you. MOAR HAIKUS.)

@jessempatch (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "As Demetrios Saites said on a text chain, picking against the Bears all season might be The Move"
Commish says: WHY WASN'T THIS A HAIKU, PATCH

@Pesky (WeeWoo): "Mike Babcock got his picks off my Phone."
Commish says: More of this putting SZN friends on blast. MOAR!

@AC0606 (WeeWoo): "The MNF curse continues: Matthew Stafford suffers a gruesome non-contact nose injury while throwing a pass."
@kittywittywoo (WeeWoo): "The MNF curse continues: JaMarr Chase's arms fall off because of Aaron Donald."
Commish says: WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE

@YikesVikes (Mahomes, QB OAD): "Mahomes was told by the Bears in 2017 if they drafted a quarterback he would be the guy, they should have done just that. But nooooo, they traded up to get Mitch Trubisky. That's reason enough to take Mahomes this week let alone their really bad defense. Patrick for the revenge."
Commish says: Shouldn't Mahomes be sending the Bears a platinum-plated fruit basket every week of every year? I'd imagine the guy feels only overflowing love for the Bears... for letting him fall to the Chiefs and Andy Reid.

@Poggl (Cousins, QB OAD): "YOU VIKE THAT!?"
Commish says: Wait how is this not the most worn t-shirt in all of Minnesota yet?

@KyleCorto (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "Cowboys on the road & on a grass field. I hope I don't regret this..."
Commish says: Do you REALLY vary your picks based on playing surface, Corto?!

@Lude8282 (Seahawks, BIG Survivor): "First time I’ve ever made it past week 2 in BIG Survivor... let’s not make it a thing though okay?"
Commish says: Welcome to the fun zone! And by fun I mean increasingly neurotic and all-consuming.

@gus_chiggins (WeeWoo): "Thanks to a random work trip to the Midwest, I will be experiencing Lambeau for the first time for the Saints/Packers game this Sunday. I am a 49ers fan who lives in California and have despised Commish's beloved Packers since the Brett Favre days. Needless to say... "Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?""
Commish says: TALK TO YOU NEXT WEEK, SOON-TO-BE-PACKERS FAN

@SkisPolishSausage (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "If you made a team out of all of the team mascots, even they could beat the Texans. Jags for the win this week."
Commish says: GM HAS WORDS FOR YOU BUT ALSO CAN WE TALK ABOUT YOUR USERNAME

@ContrarianDFS (WeeWoo): "Lions! No Falcons. No...Lions at home for sure. Wait, no..Falcons...Lions lost last week at home. But it's the Falcons...yuck. Lions! Wait it's the Lions....barf. Final pick? The wrong one. "
Commish says: MY HEAD HURTS. SO MUCH NODDING.

@crashfu14 (WeeWoo): "Very bad Week 2 for our family. It prompted us to check the batteries on our smoke detectors before making this week's picks. I urge others to do the same."
Commish says: But wait, who's to say that making picks in a disco ball den of haze, Bee Gees vibes, and intermittent Gus Johnson playcalls isn't the key to legendary SZN success?!

@Bibendi23 (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "TLaw going to lay down the law"
@Ryanmiller727 (Jaguars, All 32 OAD): "T Lawwwww"
@Ryanmiller727 (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "T Law can get my jaw"
@cjwagen (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "We believe in T. Law golden locks"
@Will98long (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "TLaw at home "
Commish says: TY LAW WOULD LIKE THE MIC AND TY LAW WOULD LIKE TO PRESENT TO YOU THE PATS' ALL-TIME BFIG RECORD VS. THE JAGS' RECORD.

@HockeyJack (WeeWoo): "Theszn.com more like thez nuts .com"
Commish says: We're ending the email right now.

Yours in football,
The Commish