Friends in football,

Commish wanted MORE TOILET BOWL PICKS.

Today was your chance to tighten that Jim McMahon 80s aerobics headband and become a ravenous Bears fan.

Today was your chance to put on a giant Ciara face apron with the words "THE PROBLEM ISN'T RUSS" and walk to the store to buy nachos because you're definitely not cooking shit on football Sunday.

You did OK with your Broncos-Bears pick volume - and a bunch more 0-3 Vikings picks - but I can't help that my thirst for Moxie is unquenchable.

 

COMMISH COMMENTARY

All told, more than 10% of our BFIG picks were on 0-3 teams - a new all-time record.

8% of BFIGers are on the 0-3 Vikings to handle the 0-3 Panthers. 3% are on the 0-3 Broncos to beat the 0-3 Bears.

Why did only 11 of us take the Bears?!

The Broncos had 70 points - SEVENTY - hung on them last week. Their opponent ran for 350 and FIVE touchdowns.

Commish keeps expecting the Bears to scrap whatever horrendous offensive plan they put in place this year and let Fields run like he did last year.

Maybe... you know... the week you're playing a team that JUST gave up 350 rushing yards... would be a good time to let Fields loose?

In our "All 32" One-and-Done - where you must pick every team exactly once to win - 11% took Denver and 3% took Chicago.

That's a little better than BFIG, but my friends, when else are you gonna pull the Broncos or Bears lever?

In WeeWoo, we saw Broncos-Bears as only slightly better than a toss-up. 67% are on Denver and 33% are on Chicago.

Meanwhile, 88% of us feel Minnesota's 0-3 is better than Carolina's 0-3.

 

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

BFIG's 39% survival rate is our 5th worst through 3 weeks.

• This is Year 15 of BFIG.
• That pendulum swung hard, as we were doing pretty well vs. historical averages thru 2 weeks.
• Commish is gonna wait a few more weeks before drawing any grand conclusions, but remember I DID ask before the SZN started whether NFL Survivor picking might be getting harder.
• 3 of our 5 worst survival rates thru Week 3 have come in the last four years. (And 4 of 5 in the last six years.)

The Niners - our top pick - are one of the biggest "do what you expect them to do" teams in BFIG history.

• What this means is winning games where they're picked as a big favorite, and often losing games where they're picked as a small favorite.
• Their all-time BFIG W/L is just 51-35 (59%), but their total pick success rate is much better at 80%.
• When we pick the Niners big, they win almost every time.

Five games will determine the WeeWoo weekly winner.

• Commish says it a lot: You MUST win all (or all but one) of the "toss-ups" to win a WeeWoo week.
• This week's toss-ups: Bills-Dolphins (53/47), Browns-Ravens (56/44), Saints-Bucs (58/42), Rams-Colts (59/41), Lions-Packers (62/38).
• Rationale being that you can survive a massive upset if 95%+ also picked the favorite that went down. But it's hard to overcome losing a game that nearly 50% of WeeWoo won.

Justin Herbert has been a top 3 most-picked QB in our QB OAD in ALL FOUR weeks so far.

• That's absurd.
• It's a One-and-Done! So once you use Herbert, you can't use him again.
• Given our huge pick rate on Kirky in Week 3 (32%), Herbert still trails Kirk in the Golden Spreadsheet
• But both Herbert and Kirk are way above any other QB in utilization rate so far.

 

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win BFIG without a little Moxie!

@FinniusJ (Broncos, BIG Survivor): "This will make sense in Week 17"
Commish says: It makes sense NOW you bold and beautiful human.

@kwons03 (Broncos, BIG Survivor): "SICKO MODE ENGAGED"
Commish says: I BELIEVE YOU MEAN HERO MODE

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@omahaviking (WeeWoo): "Omens are a powerful (and real) thing. I got pulled over in Wahoo, NE driving with my (at the time, friends with benefits) current girlfriend earlier this year. I pointed to the radio and told the officer, "Taylor Swift got me." He let me off with a warning. That clearly indicates to me that Taylor Swift has the power to turn casual relationships into lasting love, that the Chiefs will win out until T Kelce says/does something stupid, and also that the Vikings are very bad, but not bad enough to make me pick the Panthers."
Commish says: Have you submitted this to Good Morning America yet? CAN I GO ON WITH YOU?

@Flem (Raiders, All 32 OAD): "There's a non-zero chance of Brian Hoyer starting for the Raiders this week. Brian Hoyer's given first name is Axel. Axel Hoyer was born on October 13, 1985, the same year Guns N' Roses formed in Los Angeles, where the Raiders then called home and the Chargers did not, but nevertheless where Sunday's Raiders at Chargers game will be played. On October 28, 1985, at the LA Memorial Coliseum, Raiders QB Marc Wilson went an inspiring 15-31 with 0 TDs and 2 picks, willing the Raiders to a 34-21 victory over Dan Fouts and the Chargers. Was 2-week-old Axel Hoyer watching this unfold on a 20-inch TV from his crib in Ohio, dreaming that one day he too would don the silver and black and play not quite terribly enough to prevent the hapless Chargers from tripping over their own jockstraps? I choose to believe he was, and that he'll channel this very same energy on Sunday. Welcome to the jungle, baby!"
Commish says: Have you submitted this to Lifetime Original Movies yet? CAN I CO-PRODUCE?

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@EWD (Eagles, BIG Survivor): "This pick seems and I stress SEEMS safe. Just trying to figure out what the hell is going on in the NFL. Houston looked good. Flipper is scoring a 70 spot. Justin Fields looks really bad, like his dad is the coach and that’s the only reason he’s still playing kind of bad. As a packer fan that last thing brings me joy. Off to eat some deep fried cheese."
Commish says: That's it! We're in Justin Fields' COACH DAD ERA. Let Justin run, Dad! LET HIM RUN!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@DumbLuck (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "Is Desmond Ridder secretly a serial killer? Hear me out on this one. The number of times he has thrown a pass that looks like he is trying to get his receivers murdered is uncanny. He would have a baked in alibi that it was an accident. It's the perfect crime!! From now on I'm going to call him Dexter Ridder and look like Nostradamus when the 10 streaming documentaries and a Lifetime movie come out."
Commish says: If you're right then does your username change to Nostradumbus? I'LL BE HERE ALL WEEK.

 

MORE COMMENTS

@James_hunter (Chargers, BIG Survivor): "Wanted to take the broncos over the bears but I lost my nerve. Thankfully Brian Hoyer hasn’t started and won a game since 2016."
Commish says: Don't call me until you've found your nerve again, Hunter.

@MamsTooHot (WeeWoo): "My family said I must be a witch last week for picking the Cardinals to win and being right. If someone sees me burning at the stake next Sunday, I must have done something right once again. "
Commish says: So wait is your username just taunting your family? Like, "go ahead and try to burn me at the stake I'M ALREADY ON FIRE BABY!"

@ForgettingPeepyopee (WeeWoo): "You mentioned my buddy's (@ryovercash) wedding last week. As his officiant, I’ll give you the final say on objecting to his nuptials in exchange for being reinstated into BFIG. Yours honorably, The Good Reverend Peepyopee"
Commish says: Good Reverend Peepyopee, is @ryovercash's spouse in the pool? Did you mention The SZN in your officiant duties? Did either of the newlyweds mention BFIG in their vows? I shall withhold my potential objection until further information is given next week.

@angryirish23 (Dolphins, Loser Survivor): "Because I've never shown moxie before"
@nmckague (Dolphins, Loser Survivor): "Picking the team coming off 50 point win, torching Denver last week and giving the scoreboard operator carpal tunnel in the process, and leading the NFL in points. This is a no brainer! This is BFIG survivor pool right?"
Commish says: BIG-TIME LOSER SURVIVOR MOXIE ALERT!!

@yjcc (Jameis Winston, QB OAD): "HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH JAMEIS WINSTON YOU SAY?! "
Commish says: WHAT IS YOU DOING. PUT THE GENIE BACK IN THE BO... NOOOOOOOOO.

@schm0869 (Russ, QB OAD): "Let's ride! That's for who I'm picking, not a plug for the Let's Ride Boots and Apparel in Owatonna, MN."
Commish says: Is this an actual place? If the Bears win this week, can we do a SZN podcast from there? IS THE BOOTS & APPAREL OWNER IN THE POOL?!

@gjacot2 (49ers, BIG Survivor): "Am I riding high after picking the Cowboys in Week 2, then having them crush the dreams of my survival brethren by losing to the Cardinals in Week 3? A little bit. Would those very same Cardinals upset the 49ers at home as 2-touchdown underdogs and crush my own dreams? NOT A CHANCE. Right? ....RIGHT?"
Commish says: Are you showing deference to the Survivor Gods, or are you taunting them? I WOULD SUGGEST THE FORMER.

@Jimbo (49ers, BIG Survivor): "There's no way the Cardinals do it two weeks in a row, right? There's just no way. That would only be possible in some sort of bizzaro-world we don't exist in. And even in such a world, it'd require them to have a strong and still-underrated defense going up against a defensively-minded heavy favorite and use the limited possessions and narrow margin for error and general Niners-ness to pull off a narrow win. There's no way that could happen... right?"
Commish says: WHAT ARE Y'ALL DOING?!?

@arinemes1 (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "Zach Wilson is the worst QB in NFL history. I think there is potential but he needs a few more years in college"
Commish says: Haaaave you met Nathan Peterman?

@crashfu14 (WeeWoo): "When I’m gone, I want to be buried in a really elaborate tomb with sophisticated passageways to throw off graverobbers, all leading to a final, magnificent antechamber. But unlike Tutankhamun, I’m going to fill mine with completely worthless shit. We’re talking AYSO soccer trophies, novelty coffee mugs, rubber chickens, Chia pets, a mermaid tail, you name it. I want future archeologists to devote decades of academic resources in trying to figure out the purpose of this collection and why it was assembled to join me in the afterlife."
Commish says: Do Kirk Cousins' chains get a spot?!

@Twert23 (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "This pick feels like taking out the fine China to eat leftovers, but sometimes you need to use it because it’s the best option and why the hell not! "
Commish says: SZN T-shirt alert!
FRONT: Taking the Chiefs as a huge favorite
BACK: Like chowing day-old meat on some FINE CHINA

@MagicDreams (Jaguars, BIG Survivor): "After taking down 25% of the pool last week I am jumping on the bandwagon of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have their history against the Texans that is well documented but this has to be one of the best opportunities to use the Jags this season. They should surely bounce back from last week’s debacle and they host a lowly Falcons team playing its 2nd consecutive road game. Naturally, I will have to sweat it out until Sven Hunkstrom flings some miracle thunderbolt Touchdown pass to win the game in the waning seconds. Jags 31 Falcons 28."
Commish says: After 1 half in London, you are looking like a WISE HUMAN

@BigBallsDickson (Eagles, BIG Survivor): "Last week, I looked at the Cowboys and thought "better not". This week I looked at the Cowboys and once again think "better not". You heard it here first that the Cowboys are coming for this league. Perception got out of hand and they are going to bring everyone back down to earth with another upset lost. Meanwhile, I'm going to break my one rule of not picking divisional games. We're here to set records, not sure I've ever survived to week 5 before."
Commish says: Spoken like a GRIZZLED SZN VET. Commish advocates hard for the Golden Rules. But he also acknowledges it's nearly impossible to win the BFIG Title Belt without breaking one (or three). And if you're gonna break one, BREAK ONE WITH A MIX OF ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND BLUSTER.

@DaDarkKiller (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "Obviously I’m picking Vikings. It’s not a prime time game… meaning that Jordan Addison will become the new undisputed wr1, by getting 250 yds and 2 tds. TJ Hockenson follows that up with 2 of his own tds, because Taylor Swift cheated on Travvy and came to watch TJ instead. Travvy… my boy… if you are reading this, you need to up your rizz game before TJ steals her."
Commish says: A Taylor-Travis-TJ love triangle would be the most American Reality TV thing to ever happen to this country.

@estephens2014 (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "Moving forward is going to take a gutsy pick this week and deciding between two 0-3 teams is already gutsy enough, but picking the away team... we'll see what happens. "
Commish says: "Records Matter More Than Perception... but what if both teams are 0-3?!" MORE INTERNAL DIALOGUE FROM YOU, STEPHENS.

@hhhhhunter (Cowboys, BIG Survivor): "Passion over brains. Hate is the theme of the week. I hate NE and would rejoice with their third loss in four games (yeah!!!). I also hate Dallas, but do not think they will put up two stinkers in a row (especially with this game at home). That said, I would not mind finding that Dallas is substantially worse than advertised. So, one of the teams I hate will lose. I am betting it is Belichick's team. Did I mention I am a Bills fan? :) "
Commish says: Describe the Hedge of Happiness without using the phrase "Hedge of Happiness"!!

@Jmkahn (Jets, Loser Survivor): "I was going to pick the Jets to lose. Then my wife told me this is a trap game for the Chiefs, and I'd be better off choosing Washington. Then I remembered I don't have a wife. Jets it is."
Commish says: Neither does Travis Kelce. CHIEFS BY A BILLION.

@D_Bo (49ers, BIG Survivor): "SURVIVE AND ADVANCE, WEEK 4: Since there isn't a paperclip for attachments, no video or photos are uploaded as requested. Walking the streets of Charleston, SC where games don't start till 1pm (what kind of savage land is this place?!), waiting for the Bears game to start at like 4pm, only to find that the kids are up from naps and want to swim in the hotel pool. Great, floaties on the kids, YoutubeTV on the phone... wait a second I'm out of my home zone so can't watch da Bears get destroyed. Survive and advance to the gamecast on ESPN like a 1980's video football game. Life's tough, but you survive and advance to walking the streets of Charleston in search of dinner and peak into the bars to catch glimpses of the game. Not pictured: Survive & Advance Travel Kit - Coffee, Body Armor, Liquid Death & beer (the quadfecta of surviving humidity & football Sunday), stroller nap, extra swim diaper & goggles for the toddler. Hope to return for the next episode of Survive & Advance for Week 5"
Commish says: EMAIL EXISTS, D_BO. VIDEO THAT LOOKS LIKE YOUR TODDLER FILMED AND PRODUCED IT NEXT WEEK OR YOU'RE GETTING BENCHED. (Kidding. Sort of. And I FIRMLY agree that East Coast football timing is the worst.)

@hikee44 (Love, QB OAD): "Biding my time until the third interval..."
Commish says: I love how you don't even consider the Second Interval as an option, haha. PLAYING THE LONG GAME!

@IronCityPorchrocker (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "By my analysis, following the current trend, Kenny Pickett is going to throw 3-5-8 touchdowns over the next three weeks #Fibonasty"
Commish says: 14/10 would ABSOLUTELY listen to a "Fibonasty" podcast that exclusively drops absurd shit based on the Fibonacci sequence. How quickly would it get old? NEVER!

@rnorwood (Broncos, All 32 OAD): "Did you know that Fred and Wilma Flintstone were among the very first couples shown sleeping in the same bed on television? Pretty progressive. By extension I think it is safe to assume that Wilma received the first Dutch oven as well."
Commish says: In many ways, this is the perfect pick comment for the Broncos-Bears game. LET'S DISCUSS PROGRESSIVE CARTOONS AND DUTCH OVENS INSTEAD!

@dgsaites (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "BFIG haiku: "Taylor will be there
Rodgers watching from his home
pick against the Jets"
Commish says: This was good but would it be high art if you used 22 syllables? WOULD IT
@BigFurryWookiee (Vikings, BIG Survivor): "The Vikes are clearly a better 0-3 than Carolina. Right? RIGHT!?!? Someone make me feel better about this pick - looking at you BLL."
Commish says: I CANNOT CONFIRM OR DENY

@BabyDaddy (WeeWoo): "Just remember that the dolphins started off on a tear last year too. Some tables are going to get smashed and the fun for the Dolphins is over in Buffalo this week."
Commish says: IDEA: Instead of Usher for this year's Super Bowl halftime show, we do The World's Greatest Table-Slamming Showdown: @BabyDaddy vs @BigDaddy. WHO'S WITH ME?!

@ekahn93 (WeeWoo): "I have a friend who posts an Instagram story of the final Ravens score every week. But when they lose, he posts the story to his ‘close friends’ list. Who’s that for? Or not for? Like which one of his 267 followers is so triggered by seeing a losing box score on an Instagram story that he has to hide it from them? I asked him about it last week and I’m pretty sure he took me off his close friends list. So now I’m betting against the Ravens every week and hoping to not see the box score on my feed for the rest of the season. YOU DID THIS BRIAN!"
Commish says: Kahn there is a clear solution here. CLEAR. Step 1: GET BRIAN IN THE POOL. Step 2: Write this comment AGAIN. Step 3: Force Brian to SPEAK!

@KyleCorto (WeeWoo): "Damn cowboys on a grass field. We’ll get it done with a 16-0 week and winnings in singles!!!"
Commish says: Oh DAMN. I made fun of you for predicting a Cowboys loss last week because... they were on a grass field. AND THEN. Are other teams susceptible to this? WE NEED MORE PREDICTIONS, CORTO.

@iamaliyesiam (Eagles, BIG Survivor): "Kansas City is still available as an option for me, but just in case the TSwift train leads the Chiefs towards a loss this week despite everyone buying jerseys, I'm going with the Eagles instead."
Commish says: SWIFTY CHAOS THEORY

@shaunlat (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "Travis & Taylor sitting in a tree b-e-a-t-i-n-g the Jets!!!!"
Commish says: Oh god we've really reached a new audience haven't we

@rodgemahal1000 (WeeWoo): "If Kelce can Tay-tay, I can pay day!"
Commish says: OH GOD.

@BigShaneDown (Chiefs, BIG Survivor): "Brandon Staley. Not so hot guy on a very hot seat. The classic week-3-must-win-game is calling to me..."
Commish says: "What's your BFIG strategy?" "Well, I scan the game list for not so hot guys on very hot seats. WORKS EVERY TIME."

@wettengal (Packers, All 32 OAD): "What if Jordan Love is good? "
Commish says: NOT A QUESTION.

@HurricaneSandy (49ers, BIG Survivor): "If I lose though, @Scott18 you’re f***ing toast. "
Commish says: OH NO OH GOD SCOTT WHAT DID YOU DO

@ziegz (WeeWoo): "I'm a Bears fan. Who gives a shit."
Commish says: JUSTIN FIELDS' COACH DAD ERA!!

@LeviLeo (Chiefs, All 32 OAD): "I miss Jimmy Kleinsasser"
Commish says: UNDERRATED COMMENT OF THE WEEK

@Drewthiel (Eagles, BIG Survivor): "Mom, can you come get me? This week’s slate scares me. "
Commish says: GET MOM IN THE POOL!!!

Yours in football,
The Commish