Friends in football,

There have been rumblings about a "new era" in Detroit since late last year. They were just rumblings. UNTIL NOW.

In our past 14+ years doing this, the Lions have been our BFIG Survivor top pick just twice. Both times late in the season. A total of 436 picks as top dog.

Today alone: Nearly 2,000 picks on the Lions (vs. 0-4 Carolina), just clipping the Dolphins (vs. Giants) as our top pick.

Unchartered waters for a team that maybe - just maybe - is getting comfortable in exactly those waters.

COMMISH COMMENTARY

In case you haven't realized yet, we keep SERIOUS stats on every single pool we've ever done.

Among those stats: How each NFL team has performed as the BFIG top pick.

Since 2016, every team has been our BFIG top dog at least once. The Vikings - yes, the Vikings! - lead all teams with 8 top selections in that timeframe. They're also the only team to have lost 3 times as our top pick.

Most disappointing teams as BFIG top pick (2016-present):

• Vikings: 5-3 as top pick; 30% pick win rate (1,325-3,154).
• Colts: 4-2; 56% (5,374-4,139).
• Saints: 1-1; 8% (177-2,147).

Most clutch teams as BFIG top pick (2016-present):

• Ravens: 5-0 as top pick; 100% pick win rate (10,670-0).
• Bills: 7-0; (9,708-0).
• Niners: 4-0; (7,123-0).
• Seahawks: 4-0; (6,172-0).

And for those asking, yes, the Lions DID win both of their mini tune-ups - in Week 14, 2016 and Week 10, 2017.

SZN vets also know about Majority Picks - weeks where one team gets 50%+ of our BFIG picks (or, in 2-pick weeks 70%+).

All-time, Majority Picks are 27-9 (75% winning clip).

In the parity-forward NFL, 75% is about as good as you can get.

We haven't had a Majority Pick this year - and only two total since 2020 - but the Lions' 42% this week came closest so far this SZN.

On a completely separate note, we're gonna beta test a live chat feature that we might use during big action windows (like NFL Sundays).

Game to be in our first beta test? We'll do it for an upcoming NFL game. Just reply to this email if so!

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data. 

Historically, weeks with fewer games DON'T produce perfect WeeWoo records at a higher rate

• This is one of the biggest head-scratcher stats for Commish.
• Every year, roughly half the weeks have 16 games, and half have fewer.
• It SHOULD be simple math, right? Fewer games to get right = Higher rate of perfect records.
• And yet... check this out:
  
  • 2022: 5 perfect weeks w/ 16 games; 2 perfect weeks w/ 13-15 games.
  • 2021: 4 w/ 16 games; 5 w/ 13-15.
  • 2020: 2 w/ 16 games; 2 w/ 13-15.
  • 2019: 1 w/ 16 games; 5 w/ 13-15.
• Add the 1 perfect week at 16 games so far this year, and that's 13 perfect weeks with 16 games, and 14 perfect weeks with 13-15 games.
• I honestly don't even have a theory. Do you? Reply and tell me!

We often ask (in our pick comments) if International games produce weird results...

• And thus, if they DO, to avoid picking them in Survivor.
• If you zoom out to all-time W/L record in International games, it looks a heck of a lot like general NFL performance over the last decade.
• Case in point: The Pats, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Niners, Giants, and Panthers are collectively undefeated at 17-0.
• On the flip side, the Commanders, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, Colts, Steelers, Falcons and Cards are 4-12-1.
• Again, reads a lot like "general performance in recent years", right?
• In BFIG, nothing jumps out. Our International pick win rate is 77.8% (863-246), which is similar to our overall pick win rate.

WeeWoo has a LOT of "toss-up" games this week

• Commish defines a toss-up game as being 65/35 or closer in how we picked it.
• As I always say, we OVERpick favorites in Pick'ems, and thus a 35% pick rate for the "underdog" means exactly nobody would be surprised to see that team win.
• Out of 14 games, 5 are toss-ups (plus a 6th that is 67/33).
• Those games: Packers-Raiders (64/36), Jets-Broncos (59/41), Bengals-Cards (58/42), Pats-Saints (54/46), and Colts-Titans (52/48).
• What's a Pick'em week without an AFC South toss-up?!

As of Saturday night, we had 14 - FOURTEEN! - teams with 1 or 2 picks in Loser Survivor

• Commish doesn't keep stats on this one but that has to be a record.
• This includes 2 on the Bills, 1 on the Niners, 1 on the Ravens, and 1 on the Eagles.
• If I'm hosting a party where the guest list is everyone alive in one of our pools, at this point I'm choosing Loser Survivor!

Survivor #2 was similar to BIG Survivor, just less concentrated on top picks

• We went 36% Dolphins, 28% Lions, and 15% Commanders.
• Why so much less love for the Lions?!
• And for those of you who took the Commanders and also lost in the first week of BIG Survivor, just know that accumulated SZN pool wisdom IS A THING. And the Survivor Gods are ALSO A THING. And you will return stronger, wiser, and better equipped to take home serious cheese in the future.
• Also know Commish loves you.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win BFIG without a little Moxie!

@MayTheFavrthBeWithYou (Jets, BIG Survivor): "Hey Commish. It’s me. I’m drunk (again/still). As a result, I’m going to break some long-standing, oft-communicated BFIG rules. I’m aggressively and over confidently taking a 1-3 team that’s on a 3-game skid, playing away, in Denver. Here’s what’s transpiring in this polluted brain of mine… I can’t help but back the less-awful Wilson in this battle of quarterbacks who would’ve been backups on my college flag football team. [Insert complete rambling nonsense about jets and high elevation]. Therefore, Jets by 5.5. J... uhhh... oh yeah.., E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!"
Commish says: No notes. You were not-so-secretly stumping for the Moxie Award and it was such a good stump speech that I GAVE IT TO YOU ANYWAY.

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@Imjustagirl_75 (Lions, BIG Survivor): "After almost falling victim to the Chicago Bears last week - I'm just lucky to be here. As I sat conflicted watching the Denver Broncos rally against my home town Bears I realized that staying alive in Survivor was more important than seeing my home-town Bears get their first win. Even though Justin Fields looked amazing - thank you Denver Broncos. This week although I cringe against picking against a winless team I believe Carolina will in fact remain winless one more week (as will the Bears probably)."
Commish says: This might be the greatest Hedge of Happiness comment of all time. You KNEW you'd made a Hedge of Happiness. Before the game started, you were like, "Well, either way I win. My Bears win, or I survive in BFIG." Then, as the game went on, you were like "F*** THE BEARS I WANT TO SURVIVE." And then you did. And now you're like, "Oh my god that was incredible I'm never turning back. I'm a ruthless Survivalist who will do anything to survive at all costs."

@Shaggybrak (Stafford, QB OAD): "Aidan O'Connell looks like the kid that constantly blew milk through his nose to get a laugh. I'm too old for it to be him, but I'm guessing the kid on my cafeteria milk is related somehow to Aidan O'Connell. Probably his Uncle. Uncle Troy "Milk Cartons" O'Connell. Yes. I picked Stafford, but Aidan is right above the comment field, staring at me as I write this."
Commish says: DO IT FOR UNCLE MILK CARTONS!!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@Crayzeejew (Zach Wilson, QB OAD): "The one time in my life I can use Zach for this... If I get burned then I probably deserve it"
Commish says: But IF Zach can put up 270+, you can forever say, "I picked Zach Wilson in a QB One-and-Done AND IT WAS A GOOD PICK." The risk is massive. The reward is being an absolute legend.

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@robbobobbo (Commanders, Survivor #2): "Last November we welcomed a beautiful baby boy into the world. The first year is a lot of work, but way stickier parenting questions are cropping up now. What can we watch while he’s in the room, when will we let him play with screen-things, do I let him listen to my music or risk that he forgets about Dre? My wife is a Bears fan, and we’ve agreed that we’ll only put their game on in our bedroom after Charlie’s gone to bed. We’ll keep the door closed and the volume low, as we don’t want him to know that it’s possible to be as sad as Al Michaels will be this Thursday. Of course we can’t shelter him from the Bears forever, but we want to wait until he’s old enough to understand why an organization exists that’s custom-built to digest the careers of promising QBs. "
Commish says: [In hushed tones] "Honey, I think the explicit rap lyrics are OK. Educational, even. But the Bears? The Bears are where we draw the line..."

MORE COMMENTS

@ryovercash (Lions, BIG Survivor): "Is it a hedge of happiness if you’re a panthers fan but a panthers win won’t make you happy?"
Commish says: This broke my brain. I need more coffee and Jordan Love for MVP hype videos.

@EWD (Lions, BIG Survivor): "It would be more difficult to guess the outcome of Dan Campbell vs an actual panther than this game. Lions by 30-69 points. "
Commish says: That'd still be easy. How about Dan Campbell vs. 69 panthers. $500 on pay per view WHO WOULDN'T BUY IT.

@cegriffi (WeeWoo): "My first pass was almost chalked up with home teams… then I heard commish in my head “Almost never is a team a 90% favorite in the NFL.” “You have to win all the 50/50 games to win a week of weewoo”. And I got lost. So I swung wildly. "
Commish says: When you say "I got lost" I believe you mean "AND THEN I GOT FOUND BABY!" The underdog won Thursday's game. And the underdog is winning the London game so far. Commish might be blustery, but COMMISH IS WISE.

@Bball870 (Cardinals, Survivor #2): "Betting on Dobbs. Not like it’s rocket science or anything…"
Commish says: GIMME SOME OF THAT SURVIVOR #2 MOXIE!

@RedEd4 (Bears and Broncos, All 32 OAD): "So last week you asked when would be a better opportunity to choose Denver and Chicago... well, how about picking both this week!"
Commish says: I AM BATHING IN MOXIE AND FEEL CLEANER THAN I'VE EVER FELT.

@FreshTacoStand (Bengals, Survivor #2): "Going with the Bengals is like a dad telling a spicy joke – a bit bold, slightly unexpected, but always memorable."
Commish says: When you typed "FreshTacoStand" into the SZN signup form and saw confirmation that the username was available, did you fist pump one, two, or 17 times?

@Rodgers_is_dead_to_me (Commanders, Survivor #2): "2nd chance, huh? I'd like a second chance at some things, here's some examples:
1) That French toast stick I found in the back of the freezer that I'm not exactly sure how many years old it was before I ate it
2) The decision to have children
3) The Rodger's Packer Fathead I bought (and subsequently burned)
4) Deciding that a frosted tips hairstyle would look good on me
5) Working in a beef processing plant right after college
6) Joining the SZN that has furthered my addiction (j/k on that one, I love this place!)"
Commish says: Was the Frosted Tips Episode in 1999 or 2023? Honest answers only.

@LAhomer88 (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "You think NYG regret paying Daniel Jones so much cash? Saying he has been mediocre may be an embellishment. Without Saquon, that team has no offense. Conversely, MIA has been scoring more often then Gerry the Golden Bachelor on Viagra. This pick is an absolute lock. If I were Barkley, I would have an "injured" ankle for the remainder of the season instead of sacrificing my career with a team that clearly doesn't value him and is headed nowhere. If I were Jones, I would be saving every penny they give me because there is no way I am getting another contract anywhere. "
Commish says: FLASH FORWARD: It's Week 13. The Giants are 1-10. The telecast shows a group of Giants fans with bags over their heads. They're holding a sign. It reads: "WILL REMOVE BAGS ONLY FOR GERRY THE GOLDEN BACHELOR AT QB".

@Sharpdogg (Giants, Loser Survivor): "Giants continue to be Lilliputians this week. "
Commish says: LILLIPUTIANS UNTIL IT'S GERRY AT QB!!!

@gjacot2 (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Picking the biggest point spread game AGAIN? Yeah... decidedly moxie-less. Commish shakes his head with disappointment. But after 4 weeks of at least +15 point wins (BAL, DAL, KC, SF), I'm riding this boring-as-a-Browns-game strategy until the Survivor Gods smack me down for my insolence. But seriously, the Giants look just awful and Tua and crew should have fun with them at home. "
Commish says: At least you are showing deference to the Gods, even if your picking strategy is sort of like laughing in their face. They are wise and powerful and sinister... but they're not THAT smart. Say nice things to/about them, and it goes a long way. So do fruit baskets and "Favre 4ever" towels that used to be worth $100 and now can't be given away.

@Lude8282 (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Does this get easier every week you end up winning?!?"
Commish says: DIDN'T YOU JUST HEAR ME TALK ABOUT THE SURVIVOR GODS?

@dgsaites (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "BFIG haiku:
Dolphin fights fable
flipper bests dumb Danny dimes
giant not so tall."
Commish says: (Checks notes) I believe this is the first haiku this year that is actually the proper 5-7-5 syllable pattern. Should this make us worried about your pick? Were slightly-but-charmingly off haikus the KEY TO BFIG SUCCESS?!

@mahatma19 (WeeWoo): "Wait... more away teams have won than home teams this year!? That just seems sad. Tickets to the game are expensive and statistically you're more likely to watch your home team lose vs. win!? Sunday ticket is looking like a good investment. (Also, I picked 10 home teams and 4 away teams because I don't know how to interpret data properly.)"
Commish says: Just remember - In survivor, there is still a decided advantage to picking home teams. The data is extremely clear, every single year. But I am STILL waiting for someone to propose a theory as to WHY this is true, because when you zoom out to every NFL game, home field advantage has been gone since 2020.

@Jzeldes (Lions, BIG Survivor): "I’m picking my hometown Lions to get me thru the week. Am I signing up for double heartbreak? Every other year the Lions would do exactly that. But not this year BAYBEEEEEE!"
Commish says: BEHOLD THE INVERSE HEDGE OF HAPPINESS! Reserved only for the boldest and bravest - those willing to subject themselves to unfathomable pain and heartbreak at the hands of their favorite team who will absolutely, positively, definitely NOT LOSE THIS GAME.

@GoCowboys (Commanders, Survivor #2): "My name is Sam Howell. His name is Sam Howell. I went to Texas so I love Mack Brown. He went to UNC so he loves Mack Brown. I'm a Cowboys fan. He's... well shit. What could go wrong?"
Commish says: The logic was RIGHT THERE. You spelled it out! The Commanders will never help the Cowboys. C'MON SAM HOWELLS.

@lgjendem (Lions, Survivor #2): "Classic (BotB), battle of the bluecat, not to be confused with battle of the bulge. Although there are Commonalities: Western Allied offensive plans delayed by five to six weeks (see: Carolina). 2 armored divisions (see: Dan Campbells un-bitable knees). The Battle of the Bulge remains among the most important battles of the war, as it marked the last major offensive attempted by the Axis Powers on the Western front (see: Detroit proving they're the real deal and not dropping a trap game to a bad team)"
Commish says: I didn't want this comment to end. How many of us would have aced AP History were the textbooks written like this?

@gus_chiggins (Dolphins, Survivor #2): "This has nothing to do with my pick, but following up on my comment from a few weeks ago about going to Lambeau for the first time... it was a great experience. The tailgate scene with all the nearby houses and just the energy of the stadium was amazing. And we got a lucky 70 degree, perfect weather day, which I appreciated as a Californian. It turned out to be an exciting game (comeback vs the Saints), though I really wanted the Pack to lose in heartbreak-fashion so I could experience all the pain as I left the stadium. A little bit of schadenfreude never hurt anyone, right? "
Commish says: JUST ADMIT IT. You are a Packers fan now. Congratulations on choosing the better life.

@DaDarkKiller (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Obvious pick. Although my takes on the emails before have won… but the predictions didn’t come true, so this time I’ll try to be realistic. Tyreek Hill finally got off of Fortnite and started training to achieve the full speed of a cheetah. He cooks the entire Giants secondary, getting his second 200 yard game. Daniel Jones takes a massive leap forward in his completion percentage to the other teams cbs, throwing 5 interceptions. He also gets better at handing off the ball to the opposing d-line, fumbling 3 times. Giants are absolute garbage and deserve the first pick… which they will probably waste."
Commish says: What will Vegas pay on a "Daniel Jones gives the ball to the Dolphins 8 times" prop? Asking for a friend.

@suckitspanos (Tua, QB OAD): "Tua should be fired and forever judged as a QB that could have been great but ended up being crap if he can’t put up 333+ against the Giants."
Commish says: [Man leads the NFL in passing] HE ONLY PUT UP 310 VS THE GIANTS. GET HIM OUT OF THE LEAGUE!

@crashfu14 (Lions, Survivor #2): "The Sun God's tummy hurts, so I'm aware that this is dangerous. I'm simply hoping that Carolina continues to swirl down without nicking the bowl on their way out to the treatment plant."
Commish says: "Just know that if you even nick the bowl YOU'RE FINISHED... even more than you ALREADY ARE."

@Jmkahn (Stroud, QB OAD): "As a twin, I have heard every single twin joke there is, at least 1000 times. Of course, that won't stop the next person from coming up and saying "huh durrr if one of you feels pain does the other? I'm a big dumb ny sports fan." Well, now you all know how it feels when you've heard the exact same Taylor Swift song title puns, spoken as if the broadcaster is the very first to compare a "blank space" to where the Jets qb is supposed to be. Now, I love Taylor Swift, let's be real; but Beyonce had one of the greatest halftime performances of all time."
Commish says: Twin jokes are tired but KANYE-TAYLOR JOKES NEVER GET OLD.

@ekahn93 (WeeWoo): "As a commissioner in my fantasy league I feel compelled to say that I’m kind of on Rodger Goodell’s side more and more these days. No matter how many boos or hate he gets, he still stands there with a smile because he’s in charge and there’s nothing anyone can really do about it. That goes for all commissioners. Like someone can write in their BFIG comment that "@TheCommish makes terrible picks and smells bad." However true that may be, it doesn’t really matter. @TheCommish is the Burger King and he can have it his way. But now my fantasy team is 0-4 with the bye weeks starting. No one wants to trade with me and everyone wants to see me shave a goatee for a whole month at the end of the season for our final place punishment. I’ve lost all my power to defend the hate. I’m not a Burger King, I’m not even Ronald McDonald. I’m a giant, vapid, anthropomorphic beast who shows up to collect money, kill the fun, scare the children, and then screws off back into the shadows. I’m Grimace. I’m @TheCommish."
Commish says: So... does this mean... I can get paid like Goodell? Also, I'M NOT GRIMACE I'M A NICE HUMAN WHO POUNDS BUD LIGHT LIME AND LIKES ALL CAPS.

@WayneB (WeeWoo): "I don't know why I do this. Self-inflicted torture week after week. The worst part is I paid to do it. "
Commish says: THIS IS YOUR WEEK, WAYNE. (Also, I mean... people have spent WAY more money on self-inflicted pain. We're a strange species.)

@BigBallsDickson (Lions, BIG Survivor): "Alright, lack of moxie nearly got me last week. After shitting a brick watching the Eagles try to lose to the Commanders... I decide I'm going to shit a brick watching Jared Goff. We can do it! Just one week at a time..."
Commish says: CAN'T BUILD A HOUSE WITHOUT AT LEAST A FEW BRICKS.

@13KevinWhite11 (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Put a birdhouse in your soul because when you pick your opponent you should always say 'They Might Be Giants'"
Commish says: SZN t-shirt alert!

@Hoofhearted (Commanders, BIG Survivor): "Commander’s first commandment: Thou shall not lose at home on Thursday Night!"
Commish says: WE NEED NEW COMMANDMENTS

@rnorwood (Dolphins, Survivor #2): "The pool guy is at my house twice a week these days. Steve. I even had to update the budget. Kind of weird though, we don't actually have a swimming pool... "
Commish says: Only one thing matters here, Norwood. This gives you twice as many opportunities to GET POOL BOY STEVE IN THE POOL!!

@LongSufferingRaidersFan (Lions, Survivor #2): "I would say that picking the Lions is crazy, but I’m crazy for still being a Raiders fan. "
Commish says: BUT CAN YOU EXPLAIN YOUR USERNAME

@LeviLeo (WeeWoo): "A good way to threaten somebody is to light a stick of dynamite. Then you call the guy and hold the burning fuse up to the phone. "Hear that?" you say. "That's dynamite, baby.""
Commish says: Never do this to me, Levi.

@Syverso3 (WeeWoo): "If you were in a coma and woke up to someone telling you their survivor picks were the lions and the jets you’d go back into a coma. "
Commish says: Never do this to anyone, Syverso.

@SaltyDog (Commanders, Survivor #2): "See if I can get out faster than the first survival pool!!!"
Commish says: UMM

@manonthemoov (WeeWoo): "Zach Wilson won’t ball out again without having Donna Kelce in the building to impress"
Commish says: Best "Zach Wilson Loves Moms" comment of the week.

@bwesthoff (Lions, BIG Survivor): "'I'm picking the Lions.' is the survivor pool equivalent of 'Hold my beer.'"
Commish says: A NEW era... MAYBE... in Detroit!!

 

Yours in football,
The Commish