Friends in football,

The Bills are our top BIG Survivor pick for a record-tying 8th time since 2016. They're 7-0 in this scenario to date.

The Dolphins are a top-2 pick for the second straight week. They're playing the 0-5 Panthers at home.

The Rams are our third pick. They are... 2-3... and playing a divisional opponent.

DO MY WORDS MEAN NOTHING TO YOU PEOPLE?!

COMMISH COMMENTARY

I mean, I get the Rams pick. I do. Even if Commish is also like "how many people need to get felled by divisional games until we REALLY take that Golden Rule to heart?"

A big reason nearly 20% of us are on the Rams is that a LOT of survivors have already used the Dolphins and Bills.

If you STILL haven't peeped the Golden Spreadsheet - which exists for all Survivor and One-and-Done pools - it's time you took a look.

80% of BFIG'ers have now used Miami. So, a lot of it was sheer availability. BUT, a part of it was also strategy.

If you're in the 20% who haven't used Miami, that could become huge leverage down the road. Especially since Miami plays an easy-ish schedule.

The Dolphins still have home games vs. the Pats, Raiders, Titans, and Jets. They'll be heavily favored in all four.

So, to all of you who wake up tomorrow still alive in BFIG, splash some water on your face, look into your Rex Ryan Buffet Plate commemorative bathroom mirror, and ask yourself, "Am I still 'just happy to be here', or is it time to get serious and play for the ultimate glory?"

Remember, either answer is completely acceptable. Truly. Riding only the big favorites can get you to a small payout with a TON of fun along the way. Nothing wrong with that.

But a BFIG title? That's the type of glory few of us will ever attain in our lifetimes...

FUN PICK STATS

These are highlights - cool/fun/interesting things I see in our pick data.

Through 5 weeks, it's been yet another year where home field advantage STILL MATTERS in Survivor picking.

Again, Commish knows that home field advantage, OVERALL, has ceased to exist since the 2020 season. And all the talking heads keep speculating as to why.

But the data is extremely clear that, in Survivor picking, it still matters. Here's the data for BFIG:

• 2023 (thru W5): 81% home pick win rate (24,228 - 5,573); 73% away pick win rate (5,061 - 1,876)
• 2022: 53% vs. 45%
• 2021: 87% vs. 69%
• 2020: 82% vs. 63%

How can you interpret that any other way than "yup; picking home teams is still a safer bet in Survivor"? We definitely don't lack for sample size.

Do you have a theory that could explain WHY this is true? Commish is here for your theories!

Survivor #2 differed from BFIG in a big way with how we picked the Chiefs.

This one is simple: In BFIG, 60% had already used the Chiefs after Week 5. In Survivor #2, there was WAY more availability.

The result? 31% on Bills, 22% on Chiefs, 17% on Dolphins... and only 10% on Rams.

Commish loves this shit because it gives you a better sense of what the pick distribution would be if there was no "you can only use each team once" rule.

We ALMOST had our first Majority Pick of the year... in Loser Survivor.

At the time Thursday Night Football kicked off, 48% of us were on the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. (They did.)

What's remarkable about this is how high the Broncos' availability was, despite them clearly being bad so far this year.

The obvious explanation is that they've been bad despite having an easy-ish schedule. So we didn't quite feel safe taking them in previous games.

Commish looked and... yup. Prior to Thursday, they'd played the Raiders, Commanders, Bears, Jets, and Dolphins. Only the Dolphins are good in that group. And the Broncos lost to them by 50.

So, yeah, the Broncos might be BAD bad bad.

Finally, we've updated the standings for the HUSTLE Bonus Week 2 Wins Battle pool. NOTE that these are in-progress standings. They're "as if" the season ended after Week 5. Of course, this pool's ACTUAL standings are tabulated after the regular season concludes.

Still, it's mighty impressive to see @G37thang, @SlimPickens, @Wjoe92, and @Zachb513 at 15 wins out of a possible 16. Damnnnnn.

And remember: If teams tie on record, we break the tie using point differential. This is why, for example, SF "beats" Philly in that most juicy of matchups.

COMMENT AWARDS

"You've Got Moxie, Kid" Award

The SZN's second most prestigious award, behind the BFIG Title Belt. You can't win a SZN pool without a little Moxie!

@slick10k (Bears, Survivor #2): "Your moxie, Master Wayne. "
Commish says: I don't know who Wayne is but I KNOW WHAT MOXIE IS!!

Commish Communication Award

Our best weekly comment (or three)

@gjacot2 (Bills, BIG Survivor): "Commish's commentary around Survivor Strategy 1 (pick safe, maximize longevity/fun, minimize Title Belt probability) vs. Strategy 2 (take risks, minimize longevity/fun, maximize Title Belt probability) has me deep in analytical contemplation. Taking baseline bad luck/unforeseen circumstances out of the equation, the only other differentiation I can see is the ability to leverage the accrual of team stats deeper into the season. Knowing more about who teams are as the weeks pass can benefit Strategy 1ers, once pick options become more limited, but can only benefit Strategy 2ers if their early risk-taking hasn't knocked them out yet. Anyway, that's my rambling rationalization as I shamelessly jump on the Bills, fully aware of my dwindling Title Belt hopes. STRATEGY 1, KEEP ME ALIVE, SURVIVOR GODS BE DAMNED."
Commish says: I LOVE EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS PICK COMMENT. NO NOTES. NO NOTES!!!

"I Could Sell You Bengals Tickets" Award

Most convincing comment. (When BFIG began in 2009, the Bengals were AWFUL.)

@BigFurryWookiee (Raiders, BIG Survivor): "This can't possibly count as moxie, but it FEELS like moxie. I mean if I'm going to win this thing I'm going to have to take a team I don't feel 100% good about at some point, and the Pats have looked not good. I also wanted to go Jacksonville here, but I've also got this nagging feeling that landing back stateside off a big win is going to result in some flat play. Against a Colts team with a potentially ascendant Jonathan Taylor and I just can't trust them this week. I suppose that's talking myself out of a pick and not into a pick, but I throw myself at the mercy of the survivor gods."
Commish says: Long-game evaluation? CHECK. Travel considerations? CHECK. Records mattering more than perception? CHECK. Bowing at the mercy of the Survivor Gods? CHECK!!!

Definitely Not Concussed Award

Wildest take

@Zackula85 (Bills, BIG Survivor): "I went to the well the last two weeks and won with the Broncos and the Jets. Something tells me I'll get burned if I try to make it three weeks. Besides, there's no way the G men beat Buffalo AT Buffalo, after Buffalo lost to the jags in London; right, RIGHT??!! Is Danny Dimes even still alive? That dude's been sacked so much, David Carr is getting PTSD from watching the highlights. That's a QB joke for anyone over 25 ;-). "
Commish says: Raise your hand if you saw the year's SECOND David Carr reference coming in this week's comments!! (Also, DUDE, great picking the last two weeks!)

MORE COMMENTS

@spencerbutler (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Bring me the Mula straight from Don Shula. "
Commish says: GET THE LIVING DESCENDANTS OF DON SHULA IN THE POOL!!!

@chapmattman (Bills, BIG Survivor): "I’m a lifelong bears fan and really wanted to MOXIE up and take my beloved vs the Jefferson-less Vikings… but I’ve never made it to week 6 before. So I’ll play it as safe as I can imagine with the Bills. "
Commish says: When considering an Inverse Hedge of Happiness, it's more a question of "Is this Moxie or is this just torture?!"

@Crayzeejew (Bills, BIG Survivor): "In a battle between the New York teams, the Giants will find out very quickly that overpaying for a cross-eyed quarterback's multi-year extension does not mean he will use the money for much-needed corrective surgery. Danny Dimes will complete more passes to the Bill's secondary than he will throw touchdown passes, and even if Barkley does return, the Buffalo will show that Bills are better than Dimes any day of the week"
Commish says: CAN WE GIVE DANIEL A BREAK. Good lord. We are blistering the man. But, I mean... I TAKE IT BACK KEEP IT COMING.

@joedad6452 (Falcons, BIG Survivor): "gotta pick the Falcons sometime, may as well be this week!"
Commish says: JOE DAD GETS IT!

@HaveYouCheckedYourButthole (Chiefs, Survivor #2): "So for Golf SZN, I gave my top 5 most punchable faces (which in golf, there are a lot) as I picked those players. I was planning on doing something similar for football with QBs, but then I realized a remarkable coincidence - that the most punchable faces are typically on losing teams. Think about it, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Mac Jones... all punchable. Although none of them come near the number 1 most punchable face. And who I am picking against this week with Kansas City? None other than Russel the love muscle Wilson. Not only is his face yearning for a fist, but he's got the douchey personality to match. How that Massengill spokesman landed Ciara, is honestly the 8th wonder of the world. So hopefully Kenny Powers and Chiefs can tomahawk chop the donkeys while they're down, and continue the toilet bowl spiral that is Wilson's career. "
Commish says: Wait wait wait wait, punchable faces aside, did you just invent "Russell the love muscle Wilson"? Odds there's a Netflix show with this exact title within two years, as Russ is forever banished from playing QB again? 2:1? Lower?!

@EWD (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Flipper looks good. Closing time at the bar good. Maybe it’s all the Lienenkugels in my body but they could be a true contender. I’d marry them. They’re fun…. I want to pick the bigger turd in the Vikes Bears game but there’s no emotional hedge I can make. I lose no matter what and I don’t want to go bye bye trying to figure out that pillow fight of a game"
Commish says: The year's first Leinenkugel's reference! SOMEONE SHIP COMMISH A DAMN HONEYWEISS.

@Autovhanchilly (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Do you really need to master falling when you put up 40 a game?"
Commish says: Maybe the falling practice and the dance lessons and the (insert diet joke here) are THE REASONS Miami is so good. MAYBE!

@dgsaites (Bills, BIG Survivor): "BFIG haiku:
I’m picking the bills
They really play in New York
They invented wings."
Commish says: WINGS AND HAIKUS FOR EVERYONE!!!

@zburg499 (Herbert, QB OAD): "Am I worried about Herbert having a broken finger? Yes. Stafford is probably the safer pick to keep me somewhere in the top 10...but if I'm going for that first interval W, I've gotta let Justin put me on his back (delicately, so he doesn't tweak the finger, of course)."
Commish says: A MAN WHO KNOWS HIS PLACE. It's the final week of Interval 1 (Weeks 1-6) in QB One-and-Done. Matty "Ain't Stat Padford anymore" Stafford probably isn't throwing for 400. But Herbert is always a candidate!

@DumbLuck (Raiders, BIG Survivor): "Seems like every year I decide to pick the Raiders they manage to lose it for me. But I'm drinking Mai Tais in Hawaii on vacation so I'm calling a redemption story. That and we may only have one more week of Mac Jones getting benched at half time to pick."
Commish says: [Man sips his mai tai out of a striped pink and green straw, and looks pensively out at the ocean.] [Man thinks... THIS IS MY REDEMPTION STORY.]

@YikesVikes (Bills, Survivor #2): "Doc Sullivan’s is in the Irish heritage corridor of South Buffalo, and their wings are a winner. At Doc’s, the bar is big, the TVs are plentiful for optimal Bills game viewing and the homemade blue cheese has a whipped texture and a creamy taste. Plus the wings are piping hot and fresh. What more could you say on why the Bills win in the NY challenge. They aren't 'just winging it.'"
Commish says: Diners, Drive-ins, and PYLON DIVES. SOMEONE GET US A TV AGENT.

@AU_Dave (Falcons, Survivor #2): "I grew up a Falcons' fan. From 1966 to 1977, they only had one winning season, and they never made the playoffs. But then in 1978, I watched them go scoreless in the second half and blow a lead against Dallas in the 1978 Playoffs. Two years later, in the 1980 playoffs, they had a 24 - 10 lead late in the third quarter, but gave up 20 fourth quarter points, again to the Cowboys, to lose 30 - 27. I learned at an early age that what the Falcon's do best, is disappoint their fans. If there was ever any doubt, they somehow managed to blow a 28 - 3 lead in the SuperBowl! So yes, I'm going to have another cold one, and pick the Falcons. What could possibly go wrong! "
Commish says: In the karmic universe we pretend football exists in, how many of those excruciating defeats were canceled out by Gary Anderson's missed FG? (Was this a response from a kid who clearly grew up in Minnesota? YES IT WAS.)

@yjcc (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "This is the first year I have survived longer in BFIG than in Second Chance. Everything is backwards."
Commish says: Wisdom, @yjcc. WISDOM.

@TropicThunder (Rams, Survivor #2): "In a battle between a ram and a cardinal, is there really any doubt who will win?"
Commish says: YES THERE IS DOUBT. The cardinal can just keep flying higher and then dive bomb at opportunistic times. It's not like it's a boxing match. The ram is gonna have to solely work with a ground game, and with slower reflexes. THE DOUBT IS REAL!

@saradymond (WeeWoo): "Once again, my house is divided. My husband and eldest son are Jets fans. Why? Simply due to geography and well upbringing. Myself and youngest are Eagles fans? Again, why you ask? Well because I was lucky enough to be born in the best goddamn city with the best fan base on the east coast! And my youngest is clearly taking after the cooler parent. Go Birds! "
Commish says: Can I summarize this incredible comment? "Why are they Jets fan? Lol who the hell knows. Why are we Eagles fans? BECAUSE F*** YEAH EAGLES AND PHILLY LYYYFEEEEEE!!!"

@LeviLeo (WeeWoo): "BIG Survivor - Out First Week
Survivor #2 - Out First Week
Loser Survivor - Out week 5 (an epic accomplishment)
EVERY. YEAR. I am destined to be an exclusive WeeWoo player. "
Commish says: Here's the wild thing: You are GOOD at WeeWoo. You've won a week before. And if my memory serves me right, you've done well in other sport Pick'ems, too. REVEAL YOUR MYSTERY, LEVI.

@Gio (WeeWoo): "MINSHEW MAGIC >> BORTLES BROUHAHA >> BUD LIGHT LIME LIMERICKS!!"
Commish says: A most excellent student of SZN history. B+ work! Wait, why B+? Because it's BORTLEMANIA!!! with exactly three exclamation points EVERY TIME.

@bolt777 (WeeWoo): "Gotta love when you make a pick you know the team probably wont win, but it’s your team and you absolutely can’t pick against them."
Commish says: Ask me how many times Commish has picked against the Packers in 15 years on The SZN. I FEEL YOU, BOLT BROTHER.

@bmoehlman22 (Bengals, BIG Survivor): "Have been a fan of the Bengals going back to the Jeff Blake- Carl Pickens days! Who Dey!"
Commish says: JEFF BLAKE REFERENCE IN THE COMMENTS!!

@crashfu14 (Bengals, Survivor #2): "Sometimes you reach for your Tropical Mango Gatorade and end up taking a swig of trucker piss. It happens, and maybe it's not as bad as you think in the moment."
Commish says: I HAVE QUESTIONS. A LOT OF THEM.

@ekahn93 (Herbert, QB OAD): "Have you ever paid attention to when there's a sport on a tv in the background of sitcoms or lower budget shows? It's always that super generic, non-branded, Getty image version of the sport. Like no recognizable team logos, and everyone is wearing mesh jerseys like they're a JV high school team. And it's always like a blue team vs an orange color team and the characters in the show act like this is THE game of the year. Where did these come from? Who filmed it? And why do they look like they haven't been updated since the 1990s? Anyway this is what kept me tossing and turning last night at 1am when I couldn't fall asleep."
Commish says: @BigDaddy filmed them. All of them. @BigDaddy also starred in them. All of them. @BigDaddy is everywhere and nowhere at the same time. WHO IS @BIGDADDY?!

@kbanaian (Kirky, QB OAD): "Quick! Before he is traded to be Zach Wilson's (and Aaron Rodgers') backup! "
Commish says: Oh my god. Can you imagine team anti-vax being the team that calls New York City home? Would the mayor personally find a way to veto the deal? Would Rodgers and Kirky become BFFs? WOULD STRAIGHT-LACED KIRKY GIVE INTO THAT AYAHUASCA LIFE?!?

@BikerTechTC (Dolphins, BIG Survivor): "Fish can fly."
Commish says: NO THEY CANNOT.

@rnorwood (Bills, Survivor #2): "I received a resume this week for a job opening we are trying to fill. The gentleman thoughtfully included references: Hal E. Payneyo and Jim Nasium. Seems like the real deal to me, just like Buffalo this week. "
Commish says: GET HAL IN THE POOL!!

@bparkin1 (Rams, BIG Survivor): "CMON MATTHEW"
Commish says: IT'S TIME MATTHEW.

@Jmart419 (WeeWoo): "Playoff Texans??"
Commish says: YOU READING THIS, GM AND @SADTEXANSFAN?!

@JBiz (Bills, Survivor #2): "Eli better not be at the Giants-Bills game!"
Commish says: If he is, GIANTS BY A BILLION.

@brandonaro17 (Ravens, Survivor #2): "Let’s see if the receivers can catch anything this week "
Commish says: FULL HEART CAN'T LOSE.

@PMOTO34 (WeeWoo): "Ur mom goes to college "
Commish says: YEAH AND SHE'S STILL ALIVE IN BFIG - WHAT OF IT

@grandxerxes (Rams, BIG Survivor): "What a disaster this will be"
Commish says: THAT'S THE SPIRIT, XERXES.

@ParlayAllDay22 (WeeWoo): "wat da dog doin"
Commish says: DOES DOG PICK?

@Ryanmiller727 (Cardinals, Loser Survivor): "Gimeeee a Kupple of TDs."
Commish says: TIME TO END THE EMAIL.

 

Yours in football,
The Commish